43 resultados para Random Coefficient Autoregressive Model{ RCAR (1)}

em University of Queensland eSpace - Australia


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An important consideration in the development of mathematical models for dynamic simulation, is the identification of the appropriate mathematical structure. By building models with an efficient structure which is devoid of redundancy, it is possible to create simple, accurate and functional models. This leads not only to efficient simulation, but to a deeper understanding of the important dynamic relationships within the process. In this paper, a method is proposed for systematic model development for startup and shutdown simulation which is based on the identification of the essential process structure. The key tool in this analysis is the method of nonlinear perturbations for structural identification and model reduction. Starting from a detailed mathematical process description both singular and regular structural perturbations are detected. These techniques are then used to give insight into the system structure and where appropriate to eliminate superfluous model equations or reduce them to other forms. This process retains the ability to interpret the reduced order model in terms of the physico-chemical phenomena. Using this model reduction technique it is possible to attribute observable dynamics to particular unit operations within the process. This relationship then highlights the unit operations which must be accurately modelled in order to develop a robust plant model. The technique generates detailed insight into the dynamic structure of the models providing a basis for system re-design and dynamic analysis. The technique is illustrated on the modelling for an evaporator startup. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

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The IWA Anaerobic Digestion Modelling Task Group was established in 1997 at the 8th World Congress on,Anaerobic Digestion (Sendai, Japan) with the goal of developing a generalised anaerobic digestion model. The structured model includes multiple steps describing biochemical as well as physicochemical processes. The biochemical steps include disintegration from homogeneous particulates to carbohydrates, proteins and lipids; extracellular hydrolysis of these particulate substrates to sugars, amino acids, and long chain fatty acids (LCFA), respectively; acidogenesis from sugars and amino acids to volatile fatty acids (VFAs) and hydrogen; acetogenesis of LCFA and VFAs to acetate; and separate methanogenesis steps from acetate and hydrogen/CO2. The physico-chemical equations describe ion association and dissociation, and gas-liquid transfer. Implemented as a differential and algebraic equation (DAE) set, there are 26 dynamic state concentration variables, and 8 implicit algebraic variables per reactor vessel or element. Implemented as differential equations (DE) only, there are 32 dynamic concentration state variables.

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The aim of the study presented was to implement a process model to simulate the dynamic behaviour of a pilot-scale process for anaerobic two-stage digestion of sewage sludge. The model implemented was initiated to support experimental investigations of the anaerobic two-stage digestion process. The model concept implemented in the simulation software package MATLAB(TM)/Simulink(R) is a derivative of the IWA Anaerobic Digestion Model No.1 (ADM1) that has been developed by the IWA task group for mathematical modelling of anaerobic processes. In the present study the original model concept has been adapted and applied to replicate a two-stage digestion process. Testing procedures, including balance checks and 'benchmarking' tests were carried out to verify the accuracy of the implementation. These combined measures ensured a faultless model implementation without numerical inconsistencies. Parameters for both, the thermophilic and the mesophilic process stage, have been estimated successfully using data from lab-scale experiments described in literature. Due to the high number of parameters in the structured model, it was necessary to develop a customised procedure that limited the range of parameters to be estimated. The accuracy of the optimised parameter sets has been assessed against experimental data from pilot-scale experiments. Under these conditions, the model predicted reasonably well the dynamic behaviour of a two-stage digestion process in pilot scale. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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We used an event related fMRI design to study the BOLD response in Huntington’s disease (HD) patients during performance of a Simon interference task. We hypothesised that HD patients will demonstrate significantly slower RTs than controls, and that there will be significant differences in the pattern of brain activation between groups. Seventeen HD patients and 15 age and sex matched controls were scanned using 3T GE scanner (FOV = 24 cm2; TE = 40 ms; TR = 3 s; FA = 60°; slice thickness = 6 mm; in-plane resolution = 1.88x1.88 mm2). The task involved two activation conditions, namely congruent (for example, left pointing arrow appearing on the left side of the screen) and incongruent (for example, left pointing arrow appearing on the right side of the screen), and a baseline condition. Each stimulus was presented for 2500 ms followed by a blank screen for 500 ms. Subjects were instructed to press a button using the same hand as indicated by the direction of the arrow head and were given 3000 ms to respond. Data analysis was performed using SPM2 with a random effects analysis model. For each subject parameter estimates for combined task conditions (congruent and incongruent combined) were calculated. Comparisons such as these, based on block designs, have superior statistical power for detecting subtle changes in the BOLD response anywhere in the brain. The activations reported are significant at PFDR_corr

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The granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) and Fit-3 receptor agonist progenipoietin-1 (ProGP-1) has potent effects on dendritic cell (DC) expansion and may be an alternative to G-CSF for the mobilization of stem cells for allogeneic stem cell transplantation (SCT). We studied the ability of stem cell grafts mobilized with this agent to induce graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) to minor and major histocompatibility antigens in the well-described B6 --> B6D2F1 SCT model. ProGP-1, G-CSIF, or control diluent was administered to donor B6 mice. ProGP-1 expanded all cell lineages in the spleen, and unseparated splenocytes from these animals produced large amounts of interleukin 10 (IL-10) and transforming growth factor beta (TGFbeta) whereas the expression of T-cell adhesion molecules was diminished. Transplantation survival was 0%, 50%, and 90% in recipients of control-, G-CSF-, and ProGP-1-treated allogeneic donor splenocytes, respectively (P < .0001). Donor pretreatment with ProGP-1 allowed a 4-fold escalation in T-cell dose over that possible with G-CSF. Donor CD4 T cells from allogeneic SCT recipients of ProGP-1 splenocytes demonstrated an anergic response to host antigen, and cytokine production (interferon gamma [IFNγ], IL-4, and IL-10) was also reduced while CD8 T-cell cytotoxicity to host antigens remained intact. Neither CD11c(hi) DCs nor CD11c(dim)/B220(hi) DCs from ProGP-1-treated animals conferred protection from GVHD when added to control spleen. Conversely, when equal numbers of purified T cells from control-, G-CSF-, or ProGP-1-treated allogeneic donors were added to allogeneic T-cell-depleted control spleen, survival at day 60 was 0%, 15%, and 90%, respectively (P < .0001). The improved survival in recipients of ProGP-1 T cells was associated with reductions in systemic tumor necrosis factor alpha generation and GVHD of the gastrointestinal tract. We conclude that donor pretreatment with ProGP-1 is superior to G-CSIF for the prevention of GVHD after allogeneic SCT, primarily due to incremental affects on T-cell phenotype and function

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We previously reported that bacterial products such as LPS and CpG DNA down-modulated cell surface levels of the Colony Stimulating Factor (CSF)-1 receptor (CSF-1R) on primary murine macrophages in an all-or-nothing manner. Here we show that the ability of bacterial products to down-modulate the CSF-IR rendered bone marrow-derived macrophages (BMM) unresponsive to CSF-1 as assessed by Akt and ERK 1/2 phosphorylation. Using toll-like receptor (th-)9 as a model CSF-1-repressed gene, we show that LPS induced tlr9 expression in BMM only when CSF-1 was present, suggesting that LPS relieves CSF-1-mediated inhibition to induce gene expression. Using cDNA microarrays, we identified a cluster of similarly CSF-1 repressed genes in BMM. By real time PCR we confirmed that the expression of a selection of these genes, including integral membrane protein 2B (itm2b), receptor activity-modifying protein 2 (ramp2) and macrophage-specific gene 1 (mpg-1), were repressed by CSF-1 and were induced by LPS only in the presence of CSF-1. This pattern of gene regulation was also apparent in thioglycollate-elicited peritoneal macrophages (TEPM). LPS also counteracted CSF-1 action to induce mRNA expression of a number of transcription factors including interferon consensus sequence binding protein 1 (Icsbp1), suggesting that this mechanism leads to transcriptional reprogramming in macrophages. Since the majority of in vitro studies on macrophage biology do not include CSF-1, these genes represent a set of previously uncharacterised LPS-inducible genes. This study identifies a new mechanism of macrophage activation, in which LPS (and other toll-like receptor agonists) regulate gene expression by switching off the CSF-1R signal. This finding also provides a biological relevance to the well-documented ability of macrophage activators to down-modulate surface expression of the CSF-1R. (C) 2005 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

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The ingress of water and Kokubo simulated body fluid (SBF) into poly (2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate) (PHEMA), and its co-polymers with tetrahydrofurduryl methacrylate (THFMA), loaded with either one of two model drugs, vitamin 1312 or aspirin, was studied by mass uptake over the temperature range 298-318 K. The polymers were studied as cylinders and were loaded with either 5 wt% or 10 wt% of the drugs. From DSC studies it was observed that vitamin B-12 behaved as a physical cross-linker restricting chain segmental mobility, and so had a small anti-plasticisation effect on PHEMA and the co-polymers rich in HEMA, but almost no effect on the T-g of co-polymers rich in THFMA. On the other hand, aspirin exhibited a plasticising effect on PHEMA and the copolymers. All of the polymers were found to absorb water and SBF according to a Fickian diffusion mechanism. The polymers were all found to swell to a greater extent in SBF than in water, which was attributed to the presence of Tris buffer in the SBF. The sorptions of the two penetrants were found to follow Fickian kinetics in all cases and the diffusion coefficients at 310 K for SBF were found to be smaller than those for water, except for the polymers containing aspirin where the diffusion coefficients were higher than for the other systems. For example, for sorption into PHEMA the diffusion coefficient for water was 1.41 X 10(-11) m(2)/s and for SBF was 0.79 x 10-11 m(2)/s, but in the presence of 5 wt% aspirin the corresponding values were 1.27 x 10(-1)1 m(2)/s and 1.25 x 10(-11) m(2)/s, respectively. The corresponding values for PHEMA loaded with 5 wt% B-12 were 1.25 x 10(-11) m(2)/s and 0.74 x 10(-11) m(2)/s, respectively.

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The pharmacokinetic disposition of metformin in late pregnancy was studied together with the level of fetal exposure at birth. Blood samples were obtained in the third trimester of pregnancy from women with gestational diabetes or type 2 diabetes, 5 had a previous diagnosis of polycystic ovary syndrome. A cord blood sample also was obtained at the delivery of some of these women, and also at delivery of others who had been taking metformin during pregnancy but from whom no blood had been taken. Plasma metformin concentrations were assayed by a new, validated, reverse-phase HPLC method, A 2-compartment, extravascular maternal model with transplacental partitioning of drug to a fetal compartment was fitted to the data. Nonlinear mixed-effects modeling was performed in'NONMEM using FOCE with INTERACTION. Variability was estimated using logarithmic interindividual and additive residual variance models; the covariance between clearance and volume was modeled simultaneously. Mean (range) metformin concentrations in cord plasma and in maternal plasma were 0.81 (range, 0.1-2.6) mg/L and 1.2 (range, 0. 1-2.9) mg/L, respectively. Typical population values (interindividual variability, CV%) for allometrically scaled maternal clearance and volume of distribution were 28 L/h/70 kg (17.1%) and 190 L/70 ka (46.3%), giving a derived population-wide half-life of 5.1 hours. The placental partition coefficient for metformin was 1.07 (36.3%). Neither maternal age nor weight significantly influenced the pharmacokinetics. The variability (SD) of observed concentrations about model-predicted concentrations was 0.32 mg/L. The pharmacokinetics were similar to those in nonpregnant patients and, therefore, no dosage adjustment is warranted. Metformin readily crosses the placenta, exposing the fetus to concentrations approaching those in the maternal circulation. The sequelae to such exposure, ea, effects on neonatal obesity and insulin resistance, remain unknown.

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Many images consist of two or more 'phases', where a phase is a collection of homogeneous zones. For example, the phases may represent the presence of different sulphides in an ore sample. Frequently, these phases exhibit very little structure, though all connected components of a given phase may be similar in some sense. As a consequence, random set models are commonly used to model such images. The Boolean model and models derived from the Boolean model are often chosen. An alternative approach to modelling such images is to use the excursion sets of random fields to model each phase. In this paper, the properties of excursion sets will be firstly discussed in terms of modelling binary images. Ways of extending these models to multi-phase images will then be explored. A desirable feature of any model is to be able to fit it to data reasonably well. Different methods for fitting random set models based on excursion sets will be presented and some of the difficulties with these methods will be discussed.

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We present some exact results for the effect of disorder on the critical properties of an anisotropic XY spin chain in a transverse held. The continuum limit of the corresponding fermion model is taken and in various cases results in a Dirac equation with a random mass. Exact analytic techniques can then be used to evaluate the density of states and the localization length. In the presence of disorder the ferromagnetic-paramagnetic or Ising transition of the model is in the same universality class as the random transverse field Ising model solved by Fisher using a real-space renormalization-group decimation technique (RSRGDT). If there is only randomness in the anisotropy of the magnetic exchange then the anisotropy transition (from a ferromagnet in the x direction to a ferromagnet in the y direction) is also in this universality class. However, if there is randomness in the isotropic part of the exchange or in the transverse held then in a nonzero transverse field the anisotropy transition is destroyed by the disorder. We show that in the Griffiths' phase near the Ising transition that the ground-state energy has an essential singularity. The results obtained for the dynamical critical exponent, typical correlation length, and for the temperature dependence of the specific heat near the Ising transition agree with the results of the RSRODT and numerical work. [S0163-1829(99)07125-8].

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Today, the standard approach for the kinetic analysis of dynamic PET studies is compartment models, in which the tracer and its metabolites are confined to a few well-mixed compartments. We examine whether the standard model is suitable for modern PET data or whether theories including more physiologic realism can advance the interpretation of dynamic PET data. A more detailed microvascular theory is developed for intravascular tracers in single-capillary and multiple-capillary systems. The microvascular models, which account for concentration gradients in capillaries, are validated and compared with the standard model in a pig liver study. Methods: Eight pigs underwent a 5-min dynamic PET study after O-15-carbon monoxide inhalation. Throughout each experiment, hepatic arterial blood and portal venous blood were sampled, and flow was measured with transit-time flow meters. The hepatic dual-inlet concentration was calculated as the flow-weighted inlet concentration. Dynamic PET data were analyzed with a traditional single-compartment model and 2 microvascular models. Results: Microvascular models provided a better fit of the tissue activity of an intravascular tracer than did the compartment model. In particular, the early dynamic phase after a tracer bolus injection was much improved. The regional hepatic blood flow estimates provided by the microvascular models (1.3 +/- 0.3 mL min(-1) mL(-1) for the single-capillary model and 1.14 +/- 0.14 min(-1) mL(-1) for the multiple-capillary model) (mean +/- SEM mL of blood min(-1) mL of liver tissue(-1)) were in agreement with the total blood flow measured by flow meters and normalized to liver weight (1.03 +/- 0.12 mL min(-1) mL(-1)). Conclusion: Compared with the standard compartment model, the 2 microvascular models provide a superior description of tissue activity after an intravascular tracer bolus injection. The microvascular models include only parameters with a clear-cut physiologic interpretation and are applicable to capillary beds in any organ. In this study, the microvascular models were validated for the liver and provided quantitative regional flow estimates in agreement with flow measurements.

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Numerous studies in the last 60 years have investigated the relationship between land slope and soil erosion rates. However, relatively few of these have investigated slope gradient responses: ( a) for steep slopes, (b) for specific erosion processes, and ( c) as a function of soil properties. Simulated rainfall was applied in the laboratory on 16 soils and 16 overburdens at 100 mm/h to 3 replicates of unconsolidated flume plots 3 m long by 0.8 m wide and 0.15 m deep at slopes of 20, 5, 10, 15, and 30% slope in that order. Sediment delivery at each slope was measured to determine the relationship between slope steepness and erosion rate. Data from this study were evaluated alongside data and existing slope adjustment functions from more than 55 other studies from the literature. Data and the literature strongly support a logistic slope adjustment function of the form S = A + B/[1 + exp (C - D sin theta)] where S is the slope adjustment factor and A, B, C, and D are coefficients that depend on the dominant detachment and transport processes. Average coefficient values when interill-only processes are active are A - 1.50, B 6.51, C 0.94, and D 5.30 (r(2) = 0.99). When rill erosion is also potentially active, the average slope response is greater and coefficient values are A - 1.12, B 16.05, C 2.61, and D 8.32 (r(2) = 0.93). The interill-only function predicts increases in sediment delivery rates from 5 to 30% slope that are approximately double the predictions based on existing published interill functions. The rill + interill function is similar to a previously reported value. The above relationships represent a mean slope response for all soils, yet the response of individual soils varied substantially from a 2.5-fold to a 50-fold increase over the range of slopes studied. The magnitude of the slope response was found to be inversely related ( log - log linear) to the dispersed silt and clay content of the soil, and 3 slope adjustment equations are proposed that provide a better estimate of slope response when this soil property is known. Evaluation of the slope adjustment equations proposed in this paper using independent datasets showed that the new equations can improve soil erosion predictions.