A real options based method for power system planning

A deregulated electricity market is characterized with uncertainties, with both long and short terms. As one of the major long term planning issues, the transmission expansion planning (TEP) is aiming at implementing reliable and secure network support to the market participants. The TEP covers two major issues: technical assessment and financial evaluations. Traditionally, the net present value (NPV) method is the most accepted for financial evaluations, it is simple to conduct and easy to understand. Nevertheless, TEP in a deregulated market needs a more dynamic approach to incorporate a project's management flexibility, or the managerial ability to adapt in response to unpredictable market developments. The real options approach (ROA) is introduced here, which has clear advantage on counting the future course of actions that investors may take, with understandable results in monetary terms. In the case study, a Nordic test system has been testified and several scenarios are given for network expansion planning. Both the technical assessment and financial evaluation have been conducted in the case study.

Power generation investment opportunities evaluation: A comparison between net present value and real options approach

To evaluate an investment project in the competitive electricity market, there are several key factors that affects the project's value: the present value that the project could bring to investor, the possible future course of actions that investor has and the project's management flexibility. The traditional net present value (NPV) criteria has the ability to capture the present value of the project's future cash flow, but it fails to assess the value brought by market uncertainty and management flexibility. By contrast with NPV, the real options approach (ROA) method has the advantage to combining the uncertainty and flexibility in evaluation process. In this paper, a framework for using ROA to evaluate the generation investment opportunity has been proposed. By given a detailed case study, the proposed framework is compared with NPV and showing a different results