On the Dynamics of Mining Operations in Open Pit Mines

In this paper, mining dynamics is defined as the relationship between the mining rate and movement of mining operations conducted on the benches of a surface mine. This relationship describes the intensity of the pit development in space, in order to meet ore demand at the mill over time. Meeting the mill ore demand is a key factor in optimizing production scheduling in surface mines. Displacement velocity of mining operations within cutbacks, or independent pit units, is introduced in the context of long-term mine planning. Displacement velocity allows the place and time of transition of the mining operations from one independent pit unit to another to be determined as the condition for meeting the mill ore demand. An application using data from Mt Keith Nickel Operations in Western Australia is used to elaborate on the methods presented.

Modelling the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni: a cohort-based approach incorporating the effects of weather

Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni (QFF) is arguably the most costly horticultural insect pest in Australia. Despite this, no model is available to describe its population dynamics and aid in its management. This paper describes a cohort-based model of the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly. The model is primarily driven by weather variables, and so can be used at any location where appropriate meteorological data are available. In the model, the life cycle is divided into a number of discreet stages to allow physiological processes to be defined as accurately as possible. Eggs develop and hatch into larvae, which develop into pupae, which emerge as either teneral females or males. Both females and males can enter reproductive and over-wintering life stages, and there is a trapped male life stage to allow model predictions to be compared with trap catch data. All development rates are temperature-dependent. Daily mortality rates are temperature-dependent, but may also be influenced by moisture, density of larvae in fruit, fruit suitability, and age. Eggs, larvae and pupae all have constant establishment mortalities, causing a defined proportion of individuals to die upon entering that life stage. Transfer from one immature stage to the next is based on physiological age. In the adult life stages, transfer between stages may require additional and/or alternative functions. Maximum fecundity is 1400 eggs per female per day, and maximum daily oviposition rate is 80 eggs/female per day. The actual number of eggs laid by a female on any given day is restricted by temperature, density of larva in fruit, suitability of fruit for oviposition, and female activity. Activity of reproductive females and males, which affects reproduction and trapping, decreases with rainfall. Trapping of reproductive males is determined by activity, temperature and the proportion of males in the active population. Limitations of the model are discussed. Despite these, the model provides a useful agreement with trap catch data, and allows key areas for future research to be identified. These critical gaps in the current state of knowledge exist despite over 50 years of research on this key pest. By explicitly attempting to model the population dynamics of this pest we have clearly identified the research areas that must be addressed before progress can be made in developing the model into an operational tool for the management of Queensland fruit fly. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

An investigation into effects of long-distance seed dispersal on organelle population genetic structure and colonization rate: a model analysis

A simulation-based modelling approach is used to examine the effects of stratified seed dispersal (representing the distribution of the majority of dispersal around the maternal parent and also rare long-distance dispersal) on the genetic structure of maternally inherited genomes and the colonization rate of expanding plant populations. The model is parameterized to approximate postglacial oak colonization in the UK, but is relevant to plant populations that exhibit stratified seed dispersal. The modelling approach considers the colonization of individual plants over a large area (three 500 km x 10 km rolled transects are used to approximate a 500 km x 300 km area). Our approach shows how the interaction of plant population dynamics with stratified dispersal can result in a spatially patchy haplotype structure. We show that while both colonization speeds and the resulting genetic structure are influenced by the characteristics of the dispersal kernel, they are robust to changes in the periodicity of long-distance events, provided the average number of long-distance dispersal events remains constant. We also consider the effects of additional physical and environmental mechanisms on plant colonization. Results show significant changes in genetic structure when the initial colonization of different haplotypes is staggered over time and when a barrier to colonization is introduced. Environmental influences on survivorship and fecundity affect both the genetic structure and the speed of colonization. The importance of these mechanisms in relation to the postglacial spread and genetic structure of oak in the UK is discussed.

Green turtle somatic growth dynamics in a spatially disjunct Great Barrier Reef metapopulation

The growth dynamics of green sea turtles resident in four separate foraging grounds of the southern Great Barrier Reef genetic stock were assessed using a nonparametric regression modeling approach. Juveniles recruit to these grounds at the same size, but grow at foraging-ground-dependent rates that result in significant differences in expected size- or age-at-maturity. Mean age-at-maturity was estimated to vary from 25-50 years depending on the ground. This stock comprises mainly the same mtDNA haplotype, so geographic variability might be due to local environmental conditions rather than genetic factors, although the variability was not a function of latitudinal variation in environmental conditions or whether the food stock was seagrass or algae. Temporal variability in growth rates was evident in response to local environmental stochasticity, so geographic variability might be due to local food stock dynamics. Despite such variability, the expected size-specific growth rate function at all grounds displayed a similar nonmonotonic growth pattern with a juvenile growth spurt at 60-70 cm curved carapace length, (CCL) or 15-20 years of age. Sex-specific growth differences were also evident with females tending to grow faster than similar-sized males after the Juvenile growth spurt. It is clear that slow sex-specific growth displaying both spatial and temporal variability and a juvenile growth spurt are distinct growth behaviors of green turtles from this stock.

Dynamics of a temperature-related coral disease outbreak

During the austral summer of 2001/2002, a coral epizootic occurred almost simultaneously with a bleaching event on the fringing reefs of Magnetic Island (Great Barrier Reef region), Australia. This resulted in a 3- to 4-fold increase in the mean percentage of partial mortality rate in a population of the hard coral Montipora aequituberculata. The putative disease state, ‘atramentous necrosis’, was observed on both bleached and normally-pigmented M. aequituberculata, and presented blackened lesions that spread within days across the colony surface and throughout the population. Diseased portions of the corals were only visible for 3 to 4 wk, with diseased tissues becoming covered in sediment and algae, which rapidly obscured evidence of the outbreak. Diseased colonies were again observed in the summer of 2002/2003 after being absent over the 2002 winter. Analysis of when diseased and bleached corals were first observed, and when and where the mortality occurred on individual colonies, indicated virtually all the mortality over the summer could be attributed to the disease and not to the bleaching. Fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) techniques and cloning, and analysis of the 16S rRNA genes from diseased coral tissue, identified a mixed microbial assemblage in the diseased tissues particularly within the Alphaproteobacteria, Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes. While it is not possible in this study to distinguish between a disease-causing microbial community versus secondary invaders, the bacterial 16S rDNA sequences identified within the blackened lesions demonstrated high similarity to sequences from black band disease and white plague infected corals, suggesting either common aetiological agents or development of a bacterial community that is specific to degrading coral tissues. Temperature-induced coral disease outbreaks, with the potential for elevated levels of mortality, may represent an added problem for corals during the warmer summer months and an added dimension to predicted increases in water temperature from climate change.

Of sheep and rain: large-scale population dynamics of the red kangaroo

1. We analysed time-series data from populations of red kangaroos (Macropus rufus, Desmarest) inhabiting four areas in the pastoral zone of South Australia. We formulated a set of a priori models to disentangle the relative effects of the covariates: rainfall, harvesting, intraspecific competition, and domestic herbivores, on kangaroo population-growth rate. 2. The statistical framework allowed for spatial variation in the growth-rate parameters, response to covariates, and environmental variability, as well as spatially correlated error terms due to shared environment. 3. The most parsimonious model included all covariates but no area-specific parameter values, suggesting that kangaroo densities respond in the same way to the covariates across the areas. 4. The temporal dynamics were spatially correlated, even after taking into account the potentially synchronizing effect of rainfall, harvesting and domestic herbivores. 5. Counter-intuitively, we found a positive rather than negative effect of domestic herbivore density on the population-growth rate of kangaroos. We hypothesize that this effect is caused by sheep and cattle acting as a surrogate for resource availability beyond rainfall. 6. Even though our system is well studied, we must conclude that approximating resources by surrogates such as rainfall is more difficult than previously thought. This is an important message for studies of consumer-resource systems and highlights the need to be explicit about population processes when analysing population patterns.

Transmission dynamics of the Echinococcus granulosus sheep-dog strain (G1 genotype) in camels in Tunisia

Cystic echinococcosis, caused by Echinococcus grantilosus, is highly endemic in North Africa and the Middle East. This paper examines the abundance and prevalence of infection of E. granulosus in camels in Tunisia. No cysts were found in 103 camels from Kebili, whilst 19 of 188 camels from Benguerden (10.1%) were infected. Of the cysts found 95% were considered fertile with the presence of protoscolices and 80% of protoscolices were considered viable by their ability to exclude aqueous eosin. Molecular techniques were used on cyst material from camels and this demonstrated that the study animals were infected with the G1 sheep strain of E. granulosus. Observed data were fitted to a mathematical model by maximum likelihood techniques to define the parameters and their confidence limits and the negative binomial distribution was used to define the error variance in the observed data. The infection pressure to camels was somewhat lower in comparison to sheep reported in an earlier study. However, because camels are much longer-lived animals, the results of the model fit suggested that older camels have a relatively high prevalence rate, reaching a most likely value of 32% at age 15 years. This could represent an important source of transmission to dogs and hence indirectly to man of this zonotic strain. In common with similar studies on other species, there was no evidence of parasite-induced immunity in camels. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the effect of fibropapilloma disease on the somatic growth dynamics of Hawaiian green sea turtles

The effect of the tumour-forming disease, fibropapillomatosis, on the somatic growth dynamics of green turtles resident in the Pala'au foraging grounds (Moloka'i, Hawai'i) was evaluated using a Bayesian generalised additive mixed modelling approach. This regression model enabled us to account for fixed effects (fibropapilloma tumour severity), nonlinear covariate functional form (carapace size, sampling year) as well as random effects due to individual heterogeneity and correlation between repeated growth measurements on some turtles. Somatic growth rates were found to be nonlinear functions of carapace size and sampling year but were not a function of low-to-moderate tumour severity. On the other hand, growth rates were significantly lower for turtles with advanced fibropapillomatosis, which suggests a limited or threshold-specific disease effect. However, tumour severity was an increasing function of carapace size-larger turtles tended to have higher tumour severity scores, presumably due to longer exposure of larger (older) turtles to the factors that cause the disease. Hence turtles with advanced fibropapillomatosis tended to be the larger turtles, which confounds size and tumour severity in this study. But somatic growth rates for the Pala'au population have also declined since the mid-1980s (sampling year effect) while disease prevalence and severity increased from the mid-1980s before levelling off by the mid-1990s. It is unlikely that this decline was related to the increasing tumour severity because growth rates have also declined over the last 10-20 years for other green turtle populations resident in Hawaiian waters that have low or no disease prevalence. The declining somatic growth rate trends evident in the Hawaiian stock are more likely a density-dependent effect caused by a dramatic increase in abundance by this once-seriously-depleted stock since the mid-1980s. So despite increasing fibropapillomatosis risk over the last 20 years, only a limited effect on somatic growth dynamics was apparent and the Hawaiian green turtle stock continues to increase in abundance.

Patch dynamics in grazed subtropical native pastures in south-east Queensland

Patch formation is common in grazed grasslands but the mechanisms involved in the formation and maintenance of patches are not clear. To increase our knowledge on this subject we examined possible reasons for patch formation and the influence of management on changes between patch states in three experiments in native pasture communities in the Crows Nest district, south-east Queensland. In these communities, small-scale patches (tall grassland (dominated by large and medium tussock grasses), short swards (dominated by short tussock grasses and sedges), and lawns (dominated by stoloniferous and/or rhizomatous grasses)) are readily apparent. We hypothesized that the formation of short sward and lawn patches in areas of tall grassland was due to combinations of grazing and soil fertility effects. This was tested in Experiment 1 by applying a factorial combination of defoliation, nutrient application and transplants of short tussock and stoloniferous species to a uniform area of tall grassland. Total species density declined during the experiment, was lower with high nutrient applications, but was not affected by defoliation. There were significant changes in abundance of species that provided support for our hypotheses. With light defoliation and low nutrients, the tall grassland remained dominated by large tussock grasses and contained considerable amounts of forbs. With heavy defoliation, the pastures were dominated by medium tussock grasses and there were significant decreases in forbs and increases in sedges (mainly with low nutrients) and stoloniferous grasses (mainly with high nutrients). Total germinable seed densities and those of most species groups were significantly lower in the heavy defoliation than the light defoliation plots. Total soil seed numbers were not affected by nutrient application but there were fewer seeds of the erect forbs and more sedge seeds in plots with high nutrients. The use of resting from grazing and fire to manage transitions between patches was tested. In Experiment 2, changes in species density and abundance were measured for 5 years in the three patch types with and without grazing. Experiment 3 examined the effects of fire, grazing and resting on short sward patches over 4 years. In Experiment 2, total species density was lower in lawn than short sward or tall grassland patches, and there were more species of erect forbs than other plant groups in all patch types. The lawn patches were originally dominated by Cynodon spp. This dominance continued with grazing but in ungrazed patches the abundance of Cynodon spp. declined and that of forbs increased. In the short sward patches, dominance of short tussock grasses continued with grazing but in ungrazed plots their abundance declined while that of large tussock grasses increased. The tall grassland patches remained dominated by large and medium tussock species. In Experiment 3, fire had no effect on species abundance. On the grazed plots the short tussock grasses remained dominant but where the plots were rested from grazing the small tussock grasses declined and the large tussock grasses increased in abundance. The slow and relatively small changes in these experiments over 4 or 5 years showed how stable the composition of these pastures is, and that rapid changes between patch types are unlikely.

Analysis of articulatory dynamics in dysarthria following brain injury in childhood using electromagnetic articulography and electropalatography

Two physiological assessments, electromagnetic articulography (EMA) and electropalatography (EPG), were used simultaneously to investigate the articulatory dynamics in an 18-year-old male with dysarthria 9 years following traumatic brain injury (TBI). Eight words consisting of /t, s, integral, k/ in word initial and word final positions were produced up to 10 times. A nonneurologically impaired male served as a control subject. Six parameters were analyzed using EMA: velocity, acceleration, deceleration, distance, duration, and motion path of tongue movements. Using EPG, the pattern and amount of tongue-to-palate contact and the duration of the closure/constriction phase of each consonant produced were assessed. Timing disturbances in the TBI speaker's speech were highlighted in perceptual assessments in the form of prolonged phonemes and a reduced speech rate. EMA analysis revealed that the approach and release phase durations of the consonant productions were within normal limits. Kinematic strategies such as decreased velocity and decreased distances traveled by the tongue, however, may have counterbalanced each other to produce these appropriate results. EPG examination revealed significantly longer closure/constriction phase periods, which may have contributed to the prolonged phonemes and reduced speech rate observed. The implications of these findings for the development of treatment programs for dysarthria subsequent to TBI will be highlighted.

Characterization of complex quantum dynamics with a scalable NMR information processor

We present experimental results on the measurement of fidelity decay under contrasting system dynamics using a nuclear magnetic resonance quantum information processor. The measurements were performed by implementing a scalable circuit in the model of deterministic quantum computation with only one quantum bit. The results show measurable differences between regular and complex behavior and for complex dynamics are faithful to the expected theoretical decay rate. Moreover, we illustrate how the experimental method can be seen as an efficient way for either extracting coarse-grained information about the dynamics of a large system or measuring the decoherence rate from engineered environments.

A modelling approach to estimate the effect of exotic pollinators on exotic weed population dynamics: bumblebees and broom in Australia

The role of mutualisms in contributing to species invasions is rarely considered, inhibiting effective risk analysis and management options. Potential ecological consequences of invasion of non-native pollinators include increased pollination and seed set of invasive plants, with subsequent impacts on population growth rates and rates of spread. We outline a quantitative approach for evaluating the impact of a proposed introduction of an invasive pollinator on existing weed population dynamics and demonstrate the use of this approach on a relatively data-rich case study: the impacts on Cytisus scoparius (Scotch broom) from proposed introduction of Bombus terrestris. Three models have been used to assess population growth (matrix model), spread speed (integrodifference equation), and equilibrium occupancy (lattice model) for C. scoparius. We use available demographic data for an Australian population to parameterize two of these models. Increased seed set due to more efficient pollination resulted in a higher population growth rate in the density-independent matrix model, whereas simulations of enhanced pollination scenarios had a negligible effect on equilibrium weed occupancy in the lattice model. This is attributed to strong microsite limitation of recruitment in invasive C. scoparius populations observed in Australia and incorporated in the lattice model. A lack of information regarding secondary ant dispersal of C. scoparius prevents us from parameterizing the integrodifference equation model for Australia, but studies of invasive populations in California suggest that spread speed will also increase with higher seed set. For microsite-limited C. scoparius populations, increased seed set has minimal effects on equilibrium site occupancy. However, for density-independent rapidly invading populations, increased seed set is likely to lead to higher growth rates and spread speeds. The impacts of introduced pollinators on native flora and fauna and the potential for promoting range expansion in pollinator-limited 'sleeper weeds' also remain substantial risks.

Costs of learning: the dynamics of mixed-prey exploitation by silver perch, Bidyanus bidyanus (Mitchell, 1838)

Although generalist predators have been reported to forage less efficiently than specialists, there is little information on the extent to which learning can improve the efficiency of mixed-prey foraging. Repeated exposure of silver perch to mixed prey (pelagic Artemia and benthic Chironomus larvae) led to substantial fluctuations in reward rate over relatively long (20-day) timescales. When perch that were familiar with a single prey type were offered two prey types simultaneously, the rate at which they captured both familiar and unfamiliar prey dropped progressively over succeeding trials. This result was not predicted by simple learning paradigms, but could be explained in terms of an interaction between learning and attention. Between-trial patterns in overall intake were complex and differed between the two prey types, but were unaffected by previous prey specialization. However, patterns of prey priority (i.e. the prey type that was preferred at the start of a trial) did vary with previous prey training. All groups of fish converged on the most profitable prey type (chironomids), but this process took 15-20 trials. In contrast, fish offered a single prey type reached asymptotic intake rates within five trials and retained high capture abilities for at least 5 weeks. Learning and memory allow fish to maximize foraging efficiency on patches of a single prey type. However, when foragers are faced with mixed prey populations, cognitive constraints associated with divided attention may impair efficiency, and this impairment can be exacerbated by experience. (c) 2005 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.