Modelling inpatient length of stay by a hierarchical mixture regression via the EM algorithm

The modelling of inpatient length of stay (LOS) has important implications in health care studies. Finite mixture distributions are usually used to model the heterogeneous LOS distribution, due to a certain proportion of patients sustaining-a longer stay. However, the morbidity data are collected from hospitals, observations clustered within the same hospital are often correlated. The generalized linear mixed model approach is adopted to accommodate the inherent correlation via unobservable random effects. An EM algorithm is developed to obtain residual maximum quasi-likelihood estimation. The proposed hierarchical mixture regression approach enables the identification and assessment of factors influencing the long-stay proportion and the LOS for the long-stay patient subgroup. A neonatal LOS data set is used for illustration, (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Partitioned likelihood support and the evaluation of data set conflict

In simultaneous analyses of multiple data partitions, the trees relevant when measuring support for a clade are the optimal tree, and the best tree lacking the clade (i.e., the most reasonable alternative). The parsimony-based method of partitioned branch support (PBS) forces each data set to arbitrate between the two relevant trees. This value is the amount each data set contributes to clade support in the combined analysis, and can be very different to support apparent in separate analyses. The approach used in PBS can also be employed in likelihood: a simultaneous analysis of all data retrieves the maximum likelihood tree, and the best tree without the clade of interest is also found. Each data set is fitted to the two trees and the log-likelihood difference calculated, giving partitioned likelihood support (PLS) for each data set. These calculations can be performed regardless of the complexity of the ML model adopted. The significance of PLS can be evaluated using a variety of resampling methods, such as the Kishino-Hasegawa test, the Shimodiara-Hasegawa test, or likelihood weights, although the appropriateness and assumptions of these tests remains debated.

The transform likelihood ratio method for rare event simulation with heavy tails

We present a novel method, called the transform likelihood ratio (TLR) method, for estimation of rare event probabilities with heavy-tailed distributions. Via a simple transformation ( change of variables) technique the TLR method reduces the original rare event probability estimation with heavy tail distributions to an equivalent one with light tail distributions. Once this transformation has been established we estimate the rare event probability via importance sampling, using the classical exponential change of measure or the standard likelihood ratio change of measure. In the latter case the importance sampling distribution is chosen from the same parametric family as the transformed distribution. We estimate the optimal parameter vector of the importance sampling distribution using the cross-entropy method. We prove the polynomial complexity of the TLR method for certain heavy-tailed models and demonstrate numerically its high efficiency for various heavy-tailed models previously thought to be intractable. We also show that the TLR method can be viewed as a universal tool in the sense that not only it provides a unified view for heavy-tailed simulation but also can be efficiently used in simulation with light-tailed distributions. We present extensive simulation results which support the efficiency of the TLR method.

Estimating disease likelihood: a case of rubbery figures

In diagnosis and prognosis, we should avoid intuitive “guesstimates” and seek a validated numerical aid

Design of an X-band tray-type spatial power combiner using uniplanar quasi-Yagi antennas

The design of an X-band tray-type spatial power combiner, which employs uniplanar quasi-Yagi antennas (QYAs) for receiving and transmitting signals by individual amplifiers, is presented. Passive and active varieties of a seven-tray power-combining structure that includes two hard horns for uniform signal launching and combining across the tray stack are developed and measured. In order to compensate for nonuniform phase across the stack, which is caused by the nonplanar wave front of the horn antennas, Schiffman phase shifters are implemented in individual trays. The experimental-results show an improved performance of the investigated tray-type power combiner when the proposed phase-error compensation is implemented. (C) 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Complete modulational-instability gain spectrum of nonlinear quasi-phase-matching gratings

We consider plane waves propagating in quadratic nonlinear slab waveguides with nonlinear quasi-phase-matching gratings. We predict analytically and verify numerically the complete gain spectrum for transverse modulational instability, including hitherto undescribed higher-order gain bands. (C) 2004 Optical Society of America.

Magic-angle effects in the interlayer magnetoresistance of quasi-one-dimensional metals due to interchain incoherence

The dependence of the magnetoresistance of quasi-one-dimensional metals on the direction of the magnetic field show dips when the field is tilted at the so-called magic angles determined by the structural dimensions of the materials. There is currently no accepted explanation for these magic-angle effects. We present a possible explanation. Our model is based on the assumption that, the intralayer transport in the second most conducting direction has a small contribution from incoherent electrons. This incoherence is modeled by a small uncertainty in momentum perpendicular to the most conducting (chain) direction. Our model predicts the magic angles seen in interlayer transport measurements for different orientations of the field. We compare our results to predictions by other models and to experiment.

Inter- and intralaboratory variation of in vitro diffusion cell measurements: An international multicenter study using quasi-standardized methods and materials

In vitro measurements of skin absorption are an increasingly important aspect of regulatory studies, product support claims, and formulation screening. However, such measurements are significantly affected by skin variability. The purpose of this study was to determine inter- and intralaboratory variation in diffusion cell measurements caused by factors other than skin. This was attained through the use of an artificial (silicone rubber) rate-limiting membrane and the provision of materials including a standard penetrant, methyl paraben (MP), and a minimally prescriptive protocol to each of the 18 participating laboratories. Standardized calculations of MP flux were determined from the data submitted by each laboratory by applying a predefined mathematical model. This was deemed necessary to eliminate any interlaboratory variation caused by different methods of flux calculations. Average fluxes of MP calculated and reported by each laboratory (60 +/- 27 mug cm(-2) h(-1), n = 25, range 27-101) were in agreement with the standardized calculations of MP flux (60 +/- 21 mug cm(-2) h(-1), range 19-120). The coefficient of variation between laboratories was approximately 35% and was manifest as a fourfold difference between the lowest and highest average flux values and a sixfold difference between the lowest and highest individual flux values. Intra-laboratory variation was lower, averaging 10% for five individuals using the same equipment within a single laboratory. Further studies should be performed to clarify the exact components responsible for nonskin-related variability in diffusion cell measurements. It is clear that further developments of in vitro methodologies for measuring skin absorption are required. (C) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Modelling cell lifespan and proliferation: is likelihood to die or to divide independent of age?

In cell lifespan studies the exponential nature of cell survival curves is often interpreted as showing the rate of death is independent of the age of the cells within the population. Here we present an alternative model where cells that die are replaced and the age and lifespan of the population pool is monitored until a, steady state is reached. In our model newly generated individual cells are given a determined lifespan drawn from a number of known distributions including the lognormal, which is frequently found in nature. For lognormal lifespans the analytic steady-state survival curve obtained can be well-fit by a single or double exponential, depending on the mean and standard deviation. Thus, experimental evidence for exponential lifespans of one and/or two populations cannot be taken as definitive evidence for time and age independence of cell survival. A related model for a dividing population in steady state is also developed. We propose that the common adoption of age-independent, constant rates of change in biological modelling may be responsible for significant errors, both of interpretation and of mathematical deduction. We suggest that additional mathematical and experimental methods must be used to resolve the relationship between time and behavioural changes by cells that are predominantly unsynchronized.

Fixing the system? The experience of service users of the quasi-market in disability services in Australia

A qualitative study involving semi-structured interviews with 31 people with disabilities and 32 carers in the state of Queensland, Australia, found that their experience of supportive service delivery had not improved despite reforms of the service delivery system driven by a version of the quasi-market model. Instead of delivering increased consumer choice and improved efficiency in service delivery, service users experienced inadequate service supply, service cutbacks, and an increased emphasis on cost subsidisation and assessment processes. Additionally, few consumers felt that individualised funding arrangements had personally delivered the benefits which the quasi-market model and associated policy paradigm had indicated that they should receive. For many consumers, the notion of consumer 'choice' around service provision was fictitious and they felt that any efficiency gains were at the agency level, largely at the consumers' cost. It is concluded that there appears to be no particular benefit to service users of quasi-market reforms, particularly in policy contexts where service delivery systems are historically under-funded.

A quasi-chemical viscosity model for fully liquid slags in the Al2O3-CaO-'FeO'-SiO2 system

A structurally based viscosity model for fully liquid silicate slags has been proposed and applied to the Al2O3-CaO-'FeO'-SiO2 system at metallic iron saturation. The model links the slag viscosity to the internal structure of melts through the concentrations of various anion/cation structural units (SUs). The concentrations of structural units are equivalent to the second nearest neighbor bond concentrations calculated by the quasi-chemical thermodynamic model. This viscosity model describes experimental data over the entire temperature and composition range within the Al2O3-CaO-'FeO'-SiO2 system at metallic iron saturation and can be extended to other industrial slag systems.

Development of a quasi-chemical viscosity model for fully liquid slags in the Al2O3-CaO-'FeO'-MgO-SiO2 system. Part 1. Description of the model and its application to the MgO, MgO-SiO2, Al2O3-MgO and CaO-MgO sub-systems

A structurally-based quasi-chemical viscosity model for fully liquid slags in the Al2O3 CaO-'FeO'-MgO-SiO2 system has been developed. The model links the slag viscosities to the internal structures of the melts through the concentrations of various Si0.5O, Me2/nn+O and Me1/nn+Si0.25O viscous flow structural units. The concentrations of these structural units are derived from a quasi-chemical thermodynamic model of the system. The model described in this series of papers enables the viscosities of liquid slags to be predicted within experimental uncertainties over the whole range of temperatures and compositions in the Al2O3 CaOMgO-SiO2 system.