A real options based method for power system planning

A deregulated electricity market is characterized with uncertainties, with both long and short terms. As one of the major long term planning issues, the transmission expansion planning (TEP) is aiming at implementing reliable and secure network support to the market participants. The TEP covers two major issues: technical assessment and financial evaluations. Traditionally, the net present value (NPV) method is the most accepted for financial evaluations, it is simple to conduct and easy to understand. Nevertheless, TEP in a deregulated market needs a more dynamic approach to incorporate a project's management flexibility, or the managerial ability to adapt in response to unpredictable market developments. The real options approach (ROA) is introduced here, which has clear advantage on counting the future course of actions that investors may take, with understandable results in monetary terms. In the case study, a Nordic test system has been testified and several scenarios are given for network expansion planning. Both the technical assessment and financial evaluation have been conducted in the case study.

Stochastic dynamic programming for election timing: A game theory approach

In this paper, we consider dynamic programming for the election timing in the majoritarian parliamentary system such as in Australia, where the government has a constitutional right to call an early election. This right can give the government an advantage to remain in power for as long as possible by calling an election, when its popularity is high. On the other hand, the opposition's natural objective is to gain power, and it will apply controls termed as "boosts" to reduce the chance of the government being re-elected by introducing policy and economic responses. In this paper, we explore equilibrium solutions to the government, and the opposition strategies in a political game using stochastic dynamic programming. Results are given in terms of the expected remaining life in power, call and boost probabilities at each time at any level of popularity.

Dynamic multi-resolution spatial object derivation for mobile and WWW applications

Online geographic information systems provide the means to extract a subset of desired spatial information from a larger remote repository. Data retrieved representing real-world geographic phenomena are then manipulated to suit the specific needs of an end-user. Often this extraction requires the derivation of representations of objects specific to a particular resolution or scale from a single original stored version. Currently standard spatial data handling techniques cannot support the multi-resolution representation of such features in a database. In this paper a methodology to store and retrieve versions of spatial objects at, different resolutions with respect to scale using standard database primitives and SQL is presented. The technique involves heavy fragmentation of spatial features that allows dynamic simplification into scale-specific object representations customised to the display resolution of the end-user's device. Experimental results comparing the new approach to traditional R-Tree indexing and external object simplification reveal the former performs notably better for mobile and WWW applications where client-side resources are limited and retrieved data loads are kept relatively small.

A new approach to control of MIMO processes with static nonlinearities using an extended IMC framework

In this paper, a new control design method is proposed for stable processes which can be described using Hammerstein-Wiener models. The internal model control (IMC) framework is extended to accommodate multiple IMC controllers, one for each subsystem. The concept of passive systems is used to construct the IMC controllers which approximate the inverses of the subsystems to achieve dynamic control performance. The Passivity Theorem is used to ensure the closed-loop stability. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An adaptive and dynamic dimensionality reduction method for high-dimensional indexing

The notorious "dimensionality curse" is a well-known phenomenon for any multi-dimensional indexes attempting to scale up to high dimensions. One well-known approach to overcome degradation in performance with respect to increasing dimensions is to reduce the dimensionality of the original dataset before constructing the index. However, identifying the correlation among the dimensions and effectively reducing them are challenging tasks. In this paper, we present an adaptive Multi-level Mahalanobis-based Dimensionality Reduction (MMDR) technique for high-dimensional indexing. Our MMDR technique has four notable features compared to existing methods. First, it discovers elliptical clusters for more effective dimensionality reduction by using only the low-dimensional subspaces. Second, data points in the different axis systems are indexed using a single B+-tree. Third, our technique is highly scalable in terms of data size and dimension. Finally, it is also dynamic and adaptive to insertions. An extensive performance study was conducted using both real and synthetic datasets, and the results show that our technique not only achieves higher precision, but also enables queries to be processed efficiently. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2005

Advances in distributed parameter approach to the dynamics and control of activated sludge processes for wastewater treatment

This paper presents a review of modelling and control of biological nutrient removal (BNR)-activated sludge processes for wastewater treatment using distributed parameter models described by partial differential equations (PDE). Numerical methods for solution to the BNR-activated sludge process dynamics are reviewed and these include method of lines, global orthogonal collocation and orthogonal collocation on finite elements. Fundamental techniques and conceptual advances of the distributed parameter approach to the dynamics and control of activated sludge processes are briefly described. A critical analysis on the advantages of the distributed parameter approach over the conventional modelling strategy in this paper shows that the activated sludge process is more adequately described by the former and the method is recommended for application to the wastewater industry (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterizing a tropical deforestation wave: a dynamic spatial analysis of a deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon

Tropical deforestation is the major contemporary threat to global biodiversity, because a diminishing extent of tropical forests supports the majority of the Earth's biodiversity. Forest clearing is often spatially concentrated in regions where human land use pressures, either planned or unplanned, increase the likelihood of deforestation. However, it is not a random process, but often moves in waves originating from settled areas. We investigate the spatial dynamics of land cover change in a tropical deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon. We apply a forest cover zoning approach which permitted: calculation of colonization speed; comparative spatial analysis of patterns of deforestation and regeneration; analysis of spatial patterns of mature and recently regenerated forests; and the identification of local-level hotspots experiencing the fastest deforestation or regeneration. The colonization frontline moved at an average of 0.84 km yr(-1) from 1989 to 2002, resulting in the clearing of 3400 ha yr(-1) of forests beyond the 90% forest cover line. The dynamics of forest clearing varied across the colonization front according to the amount of forest in the landscape, but was spatially concentrated in well-defined 'local hotspots' of deforestation and forest regeneration. Behind the deforestation front, the transformed landscape mosaic is composed of cropping and grazing lands interspersed with mature forest fragments and patches of recently regenerated forests. We discuss the implications of the patterns of forest loss and fragmentation for biodiversity conservation within a framework of dynamic conservation planning.

Encounter success of free-ranging marine predator movements across a dynamic prey landscape

Movements of wide-ranging top predators can now be studied effectively using satellite and archival telemetry. However, the motivations underlying movements remain difficult to determine because trajectories are seldom related to key biological gradients, such as changing prey distributions. Here, we use a dynamic prey landscape of zooplankton biomass in the north-east Atlantic Ocean to examine active habitat selection in the plankton-feeding basking shark Cetorhinus maximus. The relative success of shark searches across this landscape was examined by comparing prey biomass encountered by sharks with encounters by random-walk simulations of ‘model’ sharks. Movements of transmitter-tagged sharks monitored for 964 days (16754km estimated minimum distance) were concentrated on the European continental shelf in areas characterized by high seasonal productivity and complex prey distributions. We show movements by adult and sub-adult sharks yielded consistently higher prey encounter rates than 90% of random-walk simulations. Behavioural patterns were consistent with basking sharks using search tactics structured across multiple scales to exploit the richest prey areas available in preferred habitats. Simple behavioural rules based on learned responses to previously encountered prey distributions may explain the high performances. This study highlights how dynamic prey landscapes enable active habitat selection in large predators to be investigated from a trophic perspective, an approach that may inform conservation by identifying critical habitat of vulnerable species.

Modeling and exploiting behavior patterns in dynamic environments

This paper presents a new approach to improving the effectiveness of autonomous systems that deal with dynamic environments. The basis of the approach is to find repeating patterns of behavior in the dynamic elements of the system, and then to use predictions of the repeating elements to better plan goal directed behavior. It is a layered approach involving classifying, modeling, predicting and exploiting. Classifying involves using observations to place the moving elements into previously defined classes. Modeling involves recording features of the behavior on a coarse grained grid. Exploitation is achieved by integrating predictions from the model into the behavior selection module to improve the utility of the robot's actions. This is in contrast to typical approaches that use the model to select between different strategies or plays. Three methods of adaptation to the dynamic features of the environment are explored. The effectiveness of each method is determined using statistical tests over a number of repeated experiments. The work is presented in the context of predicting opponent behavior in the highly dynamic and multi-agent robot soccer domain (RoboCup)

Multi-robot control in highly dynamic, competitive environments

The control and coordination of multiple mobile robots is a challenging task; particularly in environments with multiple, rapidly moving obstacles and agents. This paper describes a robust approach to multi-robot control, where robustness is gained from competency at every layer of robot control. The layers are: (i) a central coordination system (MAPS), (ii) an action system (AES), (iii) a navigation module, and (iv) a low level dynamic motion control system. The multi-robot coordination system assigns each robot a role and a sub-goal. Each robot’s action execution system then assumes the assigned role and attempts to achieve the specified sub-goal. The robot’s navigation system directs the robot to specific goal locations while ensuring that the robot avoids any obstacles. The motion system maps the heading and speed information from the navigation system to force-constrained motion. This multi-robot system has been extensively tested and applied in the robot soccer domain using both centralized and distributed coordination.

A bayesian artificial neural network method to characterise laminar defects using dynamic measurements

This paper reports on the development of an artificial neural network (ANN) method to detect laminar defects following the pattern matching approach utilizing dynamic measurement. Although structural health monitoring (SHM) using ANN has attracted much attention in the last decade, the problem of how to select the optimal class of ANN models has not been investigated in great depth. It turns out that the lack of a rigorous ANN design methodology is one of the main reasons for the delay in the successful application of the promising technique in SHM. In this paper, a Bayesian method is applied in the selection of the optimal class of ANN models for a given set of input/target training data. The ANN design method is demonstrated for the case of the detection and characterisation of laminar defects in carbon fibre-reinforced beams using flexural vibration data for beams with and without non-symmetric delamination damage.

Dynamic response: Real-time adaptation for music emotion

Music plays an enormous role in today's computer games; it serves to elicit emotion, generate interest and convey important information. Traditional gaming music is fixed at the event level, where tracks loop until a state change is triggered. This behaviour however does not reflect musically the in-game state between these events. We propose a dynamic music environment, where music tracks adjust in real-time to the emotion of the in-game state. We are looking to improve the affective response to symbolic music through the modification of structural and performative characteristics through the application of rule-based techniques. In this paper we undertake a multidiscipline approach, and present a series of primary music-emotion structural rules for implementation. The validity of these rules was tested in small study involving eleven participants, each listening to six permutations from two musical works. Preliminary results indicate that the environment was generally successful in influencing the emotion of the musical works for three of the intended four directions (happier, sadder & content/dreamier). Our secondary aim of establishing that the use of music-emotion rules, sourced predominantly from Western classical music, could be applied with comparable results to modern computer gaming music was also largely successfully.

Towards more personalized web: Extraction and integration of dynamic content from the Web

Information and content integration are believed to be a possible solution to the problem of information overload in the Internet. The article is an overview of a simple solution for integration of information and content on the Web. Previous approaches to content extraction and integration are discussed, followed by introduction of a novel technology to deal with the problems, based on XML processing. The article includes lessons learned from solving issues of changing webpage layout, incompatibility with HTML standards and multiplicity of the results returned. The method adopting relative XPath queries over DOM tree proves to be more robust than previous approaches to Web information integration. Furthermore, the prototype implementation demonstrates the simplicity that enables non-professional users to easily adopt this approach in their day-to-day information management routines.

Learning to play Pac-Man: An evolutionary, rule-based approach

Pac-Man is a well-known, real-time computer game that provides an interesting platform for research. We describe an initial approach to developing an artificial agent that replaces the human to play a simplified version of Pac-Man. The agent is specified as a simple finite state machine and ruleset. with parameters that control the probability of movement by the agent given the constraints of the maze at some instant of time. In contrast to previous approaches, the agent represents a dynamic strategy for playing Pac-Man, rather than a pre-programmed maze-solving method. The agent adaptively "learns" through the application of population-based incremental learning (PBIL) to adjust the agents' parameters. Experimental results are presented that give insight into some of the complexities of the game, as well as highlighting the limitations and difficulties of the representation of the agent.

Optimal design of a regenerative dynamic dynamometer using genetic algorithms

This paper presents an approach for optimal design of a fully regenerative dynamic dynamometer using genetic algorithms. The proposed dynamometer system includes an energy storage mechanism to adaptively absorb the energy variations following the dynamometer transients. This allows the minimum power electronics requirement at the mains power supply grid to compensate for the losses. The overall dynamometer system is a dynamic complex system and design of the system is a multi-objective problem, which requires advanced optimisation techniques such as genetic algorithms. The case study of designing and simulation of the dynamometer system indicates that the genetic algorithm based approach is able to locate a best available solution in view of system performance and computational costs.