Changes in estimated coronary risk in the 1980s: data from 38 populations in the WHO MONICA Project

The World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project is a 10-year study monitoring trends and determinants of cardiovascular disease in geographically defined populations. Data were collected from over 100 000 randomly selected participants in two risk factor surveys conducted approximately 5 years apart in 38 populations using standardized protocols. The net effects of changes in the risk factor levels were estimated using risk scores derived from longitudinal studies in the Nordic countries. The prevalence of cigarette smoking decreased among men in most populations, but the trends for women varied. The prevalence of hypertension declined in two-thirds of the populations. Changes in the prevalence of raised total cholesterol were small but highly correlated between the genders (r = 0.8). The prevalence of obesity increased in three-quarters of the populations for men and in more than half of the populations for women. In almost half of the populations there were statistically significant declines in the estimated coronary risk for both men and women, although for Beijing the risk score increased significantly for both genders. The net effect of the changes in the risk factor levels in the 1980s in most of the study populations of the WHO MONICA Project is that the rates of coronary disease are predicted to decline in the 1990s.

Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates across the populations. Methods In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Current smoking and the risk of non-fatal myocardial infarction in the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background: Cohort studies have shown that smoking has a substantial influence on coronary heart disease mortality in young people. Population based data on non-fatal events have been sparse, however. Objective: To study the impact of smoking on the risk of non-fatal acute myocardial infarction (MI) in young middle age people. Methods: From 1985 to 1994 all non-fatal MI events in the age group 35 - 64 were registered in men and women in the WHO MONICA ( multinational monitoring of trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease) project populations ( 18 762 events in men and 4047 in women from 32 populations from 21 countries). In the same populations and age groups 65 741 men and 66 717 women participated in the surveys of risk factors ( overall response rate 72%). The relative risk of non-fatal MI for current smokers was compared with non-smokers, by sex and five year age group. Results: The prevalence of smoking in people aged 35 - 39 years who experienced non-fatal MI events was 81% in men and 77% in women. It declined with increasing age to 45% in men aged 60 - 64 years and 36% in women, respectively. In the 35 - 39 years age group the relative risk of non-fatal MI for smokers was 4.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.9 to 6.1) in men and 5.3 ( 95% CI 3.2 to 8.7) in women, and the population attributable fractions were 65% and 55%, respectively. Conclusions: During the study period more than half of the non-fatal MIs occurring in young middle age people can be attributed to smoking.

Action research to explore perceptions of risk in project management

Uses research in a major UK company on the introduction of an electronic document management system to explore perceptions of, and attitudes to, risk. Phenomenological methods were used; with subsequent dialogue transcripts evaluated with Winmax dialogue software, using an adapted theoretical framework based upon an analysis of the literature. The paper identifies a number of factors, and builds a framework, that should support a greater understanding of risk assessment and project management by the academic community and practitioners.

Assessing the quality of risk factor survey data: lessons from the WHO MONICA Project

Background and purpose Survey data quality is a combination of the representativeness of the sample, the accuracy and precision of measurements, data processing and management with several subcomponents in each. The purpose of this paper is to show how, in the final risk factor surveys of the WHO MONICA Project, information on data quality were obtained, quantified, and used in the analysis. Methods and results In the WHO MONICA (Multinational MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease) Project, the information about the data quality components was documented in retrospective quality assessment reports. On the basis of the documented information and the survey data, the quality of each data component was assessed and summarized using quality scores. The quality scores were used in sensitivity testing of the results both by excluding populations with low quality scores and by weighting the data by its quality scores. Conclusions Detailed documentation of all survey procedures with standardized protocols, training, and quality control are steps towards optimizing data quality. Quantifying data quality is a further step. Methods used in the WHO MONICA Project could be adopted to improve quality in other health surveys.

Increased risk of psychosis in rural-born individuals: An Australian catchment-area study

The aim of the Brisbane Psychosis Study was to examine a range of candidate genetic and nongenetic risk factors in a large, representative sample of patients with psychosis and well controls. The patients (n=310) were drawn from a census conducted as part of the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing. An age and sex-matched well control group (n = 303) was drawn from the same catchment area. Candidate risk factors assessed included migrant status of proband and proband's parents, occupation of father at time of proband's birth, place of birth and place of residence during the first 5 years of life (urbanicity), self-reported pregnancy and birth complications, season of birth and family history. The main analyses were group (cases versus controls) comparisons, with planned subgroup analyses (1) group comparisons for Australian-born subjects only, (2) within-patient comparisons of affective versus nonaffective psychoses. Of the individuals with psychosis, 68% had DSMIII-R schizophrenia. In the main analyses, there were no significant group differences on season of birth, place of birth, place of residency in the first 5 years, occupation of fathers at time of birth or pregnancy and birth complications. Patients had significantly more family members with schizophrenia. Significantly fewer of the patients were migrants or offspring of migrants compared to the controls. When only Australianborn subjects were assessed (n=457), the findings were essentially unchanged apart from a significant excess of cases born in rural sites (chi-square=9.54, df3, p=0.02). There were no significant differences in the risk factors for the comparison involving affective versus nonaffective psychoses. Potential explanations for the inverse urban-rural risk gradient are reviewed. The Stanley Foundation supported this project

Paternal age as a risk factor for psychosis and schizophrenia: Findings from Denmark, Sweden and Australia

The offspringof older fathers have an increased risk of various disorders that may be due to the accumulation of DNA mutations during spermatogenesis. Previous studies have suggested increased paternal age may be a risk factor for schizophrenia. The aim of the current study was to examine paternal age as a risk factor for schizophrenia andror psychosis. We used data from three sources: a population-based cohort studyŽDenmark., and two case-control studiesŽSweden and Australia.. In the Danish and Australian studies, we examined both psychosis and schizophrenia. In the Swedish study we examined psychosis only. After controllingfor the effect of maternal age, increased paternal age was significantly associated with increased risk of both psychosis and schizophrenia in the Danish study and of psychosis in the Swedish study. The Australian study found no association between paternal age and risk of psychosis or schizophrenia. In all three studies the relationship between paternal age and risk of disorder in the offspring was AUB-shaped. In addition to an increased risk for the offspringof older father Ž)35 years., there was a non-significant increase for the offspringof fathers aged less than 20 years. The possible role of paternally derived DNA mutations andror other psychosocial factors associated with older paternal age warrants further research. The ‘U’-shaped relationship suggests that factors other than DNA mutations may warrant consideration in this research. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Trends in five-year survival and risk of recurrent stroke after first-ever stroke in the Perth community stroke study

Background: Few studies provide information on trends in the long-term outcome of stroke. We aimed to determine trends in survival and recurrent stroke, over 5 years after first-ever stroke, for 2 cohorts of patients enrolled in the Perth Community Stroke Study in 1989 90 and 1995-96. Methods: For 12-month periods beginning February 1989 and February 1995, all individuals with an acute stroke who were resident in a geographically-defined and representative region of Perth, Western Australia, were registered and followed-up prospectively 5 years after the index event. Results: The 5-year cumulative risk of death was 59% (95% confidence interval (CI) 53%, 65%) and 58% (95% CI 52%, 65%) for the 1989-90 and 1995-96 cohorts, respectively (p = 0.94). The 5-year cumulative risk of first recurrent stroke was 32% (95% CI 25%, 40%) and 23% (95% CI 16%, 30%) for the 1989-90 and 1995-96 cohorts, respectively (p = 0.07). Conclusions: Although no statistically significant improvement occurred in 5-year survival after first-ever stroke in Perth between 1989-90 and 1995-96, there was a statistically nonsignificant trend towards a smaller cumulative risk of recurrent stroke over 5 years after a first-ever stroke. Serial community-based studies of the incidence and outcome of stroke are an important means of monitoring the translation of proven preventive interventions to improvements in population health. Copyright (C) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Population versus clinical view of case fatality from acute coronary heart disease - Results from the WHO MONICA Project 1985-1990

Background The clinical view of case fatality (CF) from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in those reaching the hospital alive is different from the population view. Registration of both hospitalized AMI cases and out-of-hospital coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths in the WHO MONICA Project allows both views to be reconciled. The WHO MONICA Project provides the largest data set worldwide to explore the relationship between CHD CF and age, sex, coronary event rate, and first versus recurrent event. Methods and Results All 79 669 events of definite AMI or possible coronary death, occurring from 1985 to 90 among 5 725 762 people, 35 to 64 years of age, in 29 MONICA populations are the basis for CF calculations. Age-adjusted CF (percentage of CHD events that were fatal) was calculated across populations, stratified for different time periods, and related to age, sex, and CHD event rate. Median 28-day population CF was 49% (range, 35% to 60%) in men and 51% (range, 34% to 70%) in women and was particularly higher in women than men in populations in which CHD event rates were low. Median 28-day CF for hospitalized events was much lower: in men 22% (range, 15% to 36%) and in women 27% (range, 19% to 46%). Among hospitalized events CF was twice as high for recurrent as for first events. Conclusions Overall 28-day CF is halved for hospitalized events compared with all events and again nearly halved for hospitalized 24-hour survivors. Because approximately two thirds of 28-day CHD deaths in men and women occurred before reaching the hospital, opportunities for reducing CF through improved care in the acute event are limited. Major emphasis should be on primary and secondary prevention.

CDT, GGT, and AST as markers of alcohol use: The WHO/ISBRA Collaborative Project

Background: Estimates of the performance of carbohydrate deficient transferrin (CDT) and gamma glutamyltransferase (GGT) as markers of alcohol consumption have varied widely. Studies have differed in design and subject characteristics. The WHO/ISBRA Collaborative Study allows assessment and comparison of CDT, GGT, and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) as markers of drinking in a large, well-characterized, multicenter sample. Methods: A total of 1863 subjects were recruited from five countries (Australia, Brazil, Canada, Finland, and Japan). Recruitment was stratified by alcohol use, age, and sex. Demographic characteristics, alcohol consumption, and presence of ICD-10 dependence were recorded using an interview schedule based on the AUDADIS, CDT was assayed using CDTect(TM) and GGT and AST by standard methods. Statistical techniques included receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Multiple regression was used to measure the impact of factors other than alcohol on test performance. Results: CDT and GGT had comparable performance on ROC analysis, with AST performing slightly less well. CDT was a slightly but significantly better marker of high-risk consumption in men. All were more effective for detection of high-risk rather than intermediate-risk drinking. CDT and GGT levels were influenced by body mass index, sex, age, and smoking status. Conclusions: CDT was little better than GGT in detecting high- or intermediate-risk alcohol consumption in this large, multicenter, predominantly community-based sample. As the two tests are relatively independent of each other, their combination is likely to provide better performance than either test alone, Test interpretation should take account sex, age. and body mass index.