Recent developments in population projection methodology: A review

In this paper we survey five streams of research that have made important contributions to population projection methodology over the last decade. These are: (i) the evaluation of population forecasts; (ii) probabilistic methods; (iii) experiments in the projection of migration; (iv) projecting dimensions additional to age, sex and region; and (v) the use of scenarios for 'what if?' analyses and understanding population dynamics. Key developments in these areas are discussed, and a number of opportunities for further research are identified. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Probabilistic cost benefit analysis of generation investment in a deregulated electricity market

A new methodology is proposed for the analysis of generation capacity investment in a deregulated market environment. This methodology proposes to make the investment appraisal using a probabilistic framework. The probabilistic production simulation (PPC) algorithm is used to compute the expected energy generated, taking into account system load variations and plant forced outage rates, while the Monte Carlo approach has been applied to model the electricity price variability seen in a realistic network. The model is able to capture the price and hence the profitability uncertainties for generator companies. Seasonal variation in the electricity prices and the system demand are independently modeled. The method is validated on IEEE RTS system, augmented with realistic market and plant data, by using it to compare the financial viability of several generator investments applying either conventional or directly connected generator (powerformer) technologies. The significance of the results is assessed using several financial risk measures.

A hybrid probabilistic criterion for market-based transmission expansion planning

Market-based transmission expansion planning gives information to investors on where is the most cost efficient place to invest and brings benefits to those who invest in this grid. However, both market issue and power system adequacy problems are system planers’ concern. In this paper, a hybrid probabilistic criterion of Expected Economical Loss (EEL) is proposed as an index to evaluate the systems’ overall expected economical losses during system operation in a competitive market. It stands on both investors’ and planner’s point of view and will further improves the traditional reliability cost. By applying EEL, it is possible for system planners to obtain a clear idea regarding the transmission network’s bottleneck and the amount of losses arises from this weak point. Sequentially, it enables planners to assess the worth of providing reliable services. Also, the EEL will contain valuable information for moneymen to undertake their investment. This index could truly reflect the random behaviors of power systems and uncertainties from electricity market. The performance of the EEL index is enhanced by applying Normalized Coefficient of Probability (NCP), so it can be utilized in large real power systems. A numerical example is carried out on IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS), which will show how the EEL can predict the current system bottleneck under future operational conditions and how to use EEL as one of planning objectives to determine future optimal plans. A well-known simulation method, Monte Carlo simulation, is employed to achieve the probabilistic characteristic of electricity market and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is used as a multi-objective optimization tool.

Probabilistic Action System Trace Semantics

Action systems are a construct for reasoning about concurrent, reactive systems, in which concurrent behaviour is described by interleaving atomic actions. Sere and Troubitsyna have proposed an extension to action systems in which actions may be expressed and composed using discrete probabilistic choice as well as demonic nondeterministic choice. In this paper we develop a trace-based semantics for probabilistic action systems. This semantics provides a simple theoretical base on which practical refinement rules for probabilistic action systems may be justified.

A simple design methodology for elliptical cross-section, transverse, asymmetric, head gradient coils for MRI

A simple design process for the design of elliptical cross-section, transverse gradient coils for use in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is presented. This process is based on a flexible stochastic optimization method and results in designs of high linearity and efficiency with low switching times. A design study of a shielded, transverse asymmetric elliptical coil set for use in neural imaging is presented and includes the minimization of the torques experienced by the gradient set.

A time-harmonic inverse methodology for the design of RF coils in MRI

An inverse methodology is described to assist in the design of radio-frequency (RF) coils for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) applications. The time-harmonic electromagnetic Green's functions are used to calculate current on the coil and shield cylinders that will generate a specified internal magnetic field. Stream function techniques and the method of moments are then used to implement this theoretical current density into an RF coil. A novel asymmetric coil operating for a 4.5 T MRI machine was designed and constructed using this methodology and the results are presented.

Mantle convection modeling with viscoelastic/brittle lithosphere: Numerical methodology and plate tectonic modeling

The earth's tectonic plates are strong, viscoelastic shells which make up the outermost part of a thermally convecting, predominantly viscous layer. Brittle failure of the lithosphere occurs when stresses are high. In order to build a realistic simulation of the planet's evolution, the complete viscoelastic/brittle convection system needs to be considered. A particle-in-cell finite element method is demonstrated which can simulate very large deformation viscoelasticity with a strain-dependent yield stress. This is applied to a plate-deformation problem. Numerical accuracy is demonstrated relative to analytic benchmarks, and the characteristics of the method are discussed.

Assessing cost-effectiveness in mental health: family interventions for schizophrenia and related conditions

Objective: Existing evidence suggests that family interventions can be effective in reducing relapse rates in schizophrenia and related conditions. Despite this, such interventions are not routinely delivered in Australian mental health services. The objective of the current study is to investigate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of introducing three types of family interventions, namely: behavioural family management (BFM); behavioural intervention for families (BIF); and multiple family groups (MFG) into current mental health services in Australia. Method: The ICER of each of the family interventions is assessed from a health sector perspective, including the government, persons with schizophrenia and their families/carers using a standardized methodology. A two-stage approach is taken to the assessment of benefit. The first stage involves a quantitative analysis based on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. The second stage involves application of 'second filter' criteria (including equity, strength of evidence, feasibility and acceptability to stakeholders) to results. The robustness of results is tested using multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: The most cost-effective intervention, in order of magnitude, is BIF (A$8000 per DALY averted), followed by MFG (A$21 000 per DALY averted) and lastly BFM (A$28 000 per DALY averted). The inclusion of time costs makes BFM more cost-effective than MFG. Variation of discount rate has no effect on conclusions. Conclusions: All three interventions are considered 'value-for-money' within an Australian context. This conclusion needs to be tempered against the methodological challenge of converting clinical outcomes into a generic economic outcome measure (DALY). Issues surrounding the feasibility of routinely implementing such interventions need to be addressed.

A methodology for current density calculations in high-frequency RF resonators

As nuclear magnetic resonance imaging and spectroscopy move inexorably toward higher field-strength magnets in search of improved signal-to-noise ratio, spectral resolution, and spatial resolution, the way in which radiofrequency (RF) probes are designed changes. At higher frequencies, resonant cavities become the favored RF ''coil'' type and may be built using streamline elements to reduce the inductance of the system. In modeling such systems, the quasi-static approach of assuming that current flows evenly in all conductor cross sections and that adjacent conductors do not affect each other becomes less reasonable. The proximity of RF conductors in resonators typically causes RF eddy currents to flow, whereby the current density in each rung is altered by the RF fields generated by nearby conductors. The proper understanding and prediction of how resonators will perform require a model of the current densities flowing in conducting sections, including all RF eddy current effects. Very few models of this type have been presented in the literature. This article presents an overview of one such model and of how it may be applied to a variety of resonators, both shielded and unshielded, circular, and elliptical, in cross section. Results are presented from a shielded head coil operating at 2 tesla. (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Chemical characterization of soils of a tropical humid forest zone: A methodology

A methodology, based on a combination of routinely performed analyses and investigation of fundamental charge and anion sorption properties, was used to characterize the soils of the humid forest zone of Cameroon, In general, the soils have about 2 cmol kg(-1) permanent negative charge, with about 1 cmol kg(-1) from variable-charge sources at current soil pH values, Furthermore, they are impoverished with respect to Ca, Mg, and K, while Al frequently dominates the exchange complex. Thus, the ability of these soils to retain base cations is more limited than is suggested by the cation-exchange capacity (CEC), Therefore we propose the concept of a degradation index (DI) defined as: DI = 100(CEC5.5 - sum of basic cations)/CEC5.5, where CEC5.5 is the CEC measured at pH 5.5, This index encompasses degradation a soil may have experienced from natural or man-made causes, Extractable PO4 concentrations are considered very low and the soils have a moderate to high capacity to fix added PO4. Surface soil SO4 concentrations are considered marginal to deficient for plant growth, though adequate reserves of SO4 are held in the subsoil by SO4 sorption, The approach used demonstrated that the five morphologically different soil profile classes identified in the zone have similar chemical characteristics. Thus, the results of experimentation conducted on one of the soil profile classes will be applicable throughout the zone, Furthermore, the approach has provided a means of identifying comparable soil types in other parts of the world and will guide technology transfer, The analytical methods used in this study are relatively simple and require no specialized equipment, and are therefore within the capabilities of many laboratories in the developing world.