127 resultados para Probabilistic mean value theorem
em University of Queensland eSpace - Australia
Resumo:
To date, measurements of GH-binding protein (GHBP) during human pregnancy have been carried out using;assays susceptible to interference by the elevated levels of human placental GH typical of late gestation. We recruited a large cohort of pregnant women (n = 140) for serial measurements of GHBP and used the ligand immunofunctional assay for GHBP. For normal gravidas, GHBP levels fell throughout gestation. Mean levels were 1.07 nmol/L (SE = 0.18) in the first trimester, 0.90 nmol/L (SE = 0.08) at 18-20 weeks, 0.73 nmol/L (SE = 0.05) at 28-30 weeks, and 0.62 nmol/L (SE = 0.06) at 36-38 weeks. GHBP levels in the first trimester correlated significantly with maternal body mass index (r = 0.58; P < 0.01). GHBP levels in pregnancies complicated by noninsulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) were substantially elevated at all gestational ages. The mean value in the first quarter (2.29 nmol/L) was more than double the normal mean (P < 0.01). In contrast, patients with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) showed reduced GHBP concentrations at 36-38 weeks. The correlation between body mass index and GHBP is consistent with a metabolic role for GHBP during pregnancy, as is the dramatic elevation in GHBP observed in cases of NIDDM. At 36 weeks gestation, GHBP was significantly elevated (P < 0.01) in those women whose neonates had low birth weight (
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1. Parasitoids are predicted to spend longer in patches with more hosts, but previous work on Cotesia rubecula (Marshall) has not upheld this prediction, Tests of theoretical predictions may be affected by the definition of patch leaving behaviour, which is often ambiguous. 2. In this study whole plants were considered as patches and assumed that wasps move within patches by means of walking or flying. Within-patch and between-patch flights were distinguished based on flight distance. The quality of this classification was tested statistically by examination of log-survivor curves of flight times. 3. Wasps remained longer in patches with higher host densities, which is consistent with predictions of the marginal value theorem (Charnov 1976). tinder the assumption that each flight indicates a patch departure, there is no relationship between host density and leaving tendency. 4. Oviposition influences the patch leaving behaviour of wasps in a count down fashion (Driessen et al. 1995), as predicted by an optimal foraging model (Tenhumberg, Keller & Possingham 2001). 5. Wasps spend significantly longer in the first patch encountered following release, resulting in an increased rate of superparasitism.
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The authors undertook this study to assess levels of cadmium exposure in the general population. Samples of lung, liver, and kidney were obtained from 61 cadavers (43 males, 18 females; 2-89 yr of age, mean age = 38.5 yr) who died from accidental causes and who were subject to postmortem examinations at the John Tonge Centre for Forensic Sciences, Queensland Health Scientific Services, Brisbane, Australia, in 1997 and 1998. Samples of bladder urine were also obtained from 22 cadavers. Tissue and urine samples were analyzed for cadmium, zinc, and copper with inductively coupled plasm (ICP) mass spectrometry. The overall mean values for cadmium in the lung, liver, and kidney cortex samples were 0.13, 0.95, and 15.45 mug/gm wet tissue weight. The average renal cadmium level in subjects with high lung-cadmium levels (n = 13) was 6 mug/gm wet tissue weight higher than that of similarly aged subjects who had medium lung-cadmium levels (n = 30). In females, the average level of cadmium in the liver was 74% greater than in males, and the average liver cadmium in females with high lung-cadmium levels was 100% higher than in males in the same age range who had the same high lung-cadmium levels. Renal cadmium accumulation tended to be greater in females than in males who were in the same age range and who had similar lung-cadmium levels, a result that suggested that there was a higher absorption rate of cadmium in females. The mean value for a urinary cadmium excretion of 2.30 mug/gm creatinine was found in a subset of samples that had a mean age of 39 yr and a renal cortex cadmium concentration of 18.6 mug/gm wet tissue weight. Urinary cadmium excretion rates were correlated more strongly with lung and kidney cadmium content than with age or liver cadmium levels. The results suggest that urinary cadmium excretion may be increased in smokers and could provide some estimate of body cadmium burdens in future Australian epidemiological studies.
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The effects of various fallow management systems and cropping intensities on water infiltration were measured on an Alfisol at Ibadan in southwestern Nigeria. The objective was to determine the influence of the land use systems (a combination of crop-fallow sequences and intercropping types) on soil hydraulic properties obtained by disc permeameter and double-ring infiltration measurements. The experiment was established in 1989 as a split-plot design with four replications. The main plots were natural fallow, planted Pueraria phaseoloides and planted Leucaena leucocephala. The subplots were 1 year of maize/cassava intercrop followed by 3-year fallow (25% cropping intensity), or 2-year fallow (33% cropping intensity), or 1-year fallow (50% cropping intensity), or no fallow period (100% cropping intensity). Water infiltration rates and sorptivities were measured under saturated and unsaturated flow. Irrespective of land use, infiltration rates at the soil surface (121-324 cm h(-1)) were greater than those measured at 30 cm depth (55-144 cm h(-1)). This indicated that fewer large pores were present below 30 cm depth compared with 0-30 cm, depth. Despite some temporal variation, sorptivities with the highest mean value of 93.5 cm h(-1/2) increased as the cropping intensity decreased, suggesting a more continuous macropore system under less intensive land use systems. This was most likely due to continuous biopores created by perennial vegetation under long fallow systems. Intercropped maize and cassava yields also increased as cropping intensity decreased. The weak relationship between crop yields and hydraulic conductivity/infiltration rates suggests that the rates were not limiting.
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Lamotrigine concentrations were measured simultaneously (as far as was feasible) in stimulated and unstimulated saliva samples, and in plasma, from seven adult volunteers over a 32 h period following a single 50 mg dose of the drug, and in 20 children and adolescents during the course of routine antiepileptic therapy. In individuals there was a close correlation between the measurements at least 2 It after ingestion of the drug. Concentrations in stimulated and unstimulated saliva were similar; the stimulation produced little change in the saliva secretion rate. The saliva-to-plasma concentration ratio increased linearly by 0.78% for each 1 mg/L plasma lamotrigine concentration, with a mean value of 48.8% at a plasma lamotrigine concentration of 10 mg/L. With appropriate precautions as to the timing of saliva collections, and a single plasma lamotrigine concentration measurement to calibrate the salivary values in the individual, salivary lamotrigine concentration measurement appears to be a practicable approach to therapeutic drug monitoring. This has significant implications for the elucidation of the pharmacokinetics of lamotrigine in the paediatric population.
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Accurate dating of lagoon sediments has been a difficult problem, although lagoon profiles, usually with high deposition rates, have a great potential for high-resolution climate reconstruction. We report 26 high-precision TIMS U-series dates (on 25 coral branches) and five AMS C-14 dates (on foraminifera) for a 15.4-m long lagoon core from Yongshu Reef, Nansha area, southern South China Sea. All the dates are in the correct stratigraphical sequence, providing the best chronology so far reported for lagoon deposits. The results reveal a similar to 4000-a continuous depositional history, with sedimentation rates varying from 0.8 to 24.6 mm a(-1), with an average of 3.85 mm a(-1), which corresponds to an average net carbonate accumulation rate of similar to 2700 g CaCO3 m(-2) a(-1), significantly higher than the mean value (800 +/- 400 g CaCO3 m(-2) a(-1)) used for lagoons in general in previous studies of global carbonate budget. Episodes of accelerated depositions within the last 1000 years correlate well with strong storm events identified by U-series dates of storm-transported coral blocks in the area. However, in the longer term, the sedimentation rates during the past 1000 years were much higher than earlier on, probably due to more vigorous wave-reef interaction as a result of relative sea-level fall since 500 AD and expansion of reef flat area, supplying more sediments. The coral TIMS U-series ages and foraminifera AMS 14C dates reveal intriguing apparent radiocarbon reservoir ages (R) from 572 to 1052 years, which are much higher than global mean values of similar to 400 years. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Evolutionary algorithms perform optimization using a population of sample solution points. An interesting development has been to view population-based optimization as the process of evolving an explicit, probabilistic model of the search space. This paper investigates a formal basis for continuous, population-based optimization in terms of a stochastic gradient descent on the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the model probability density and the objective function, represented as an unknown density of assumed form. This leads to an update rule that is related and compared with previous theoretical work, a continuous version of the population-based incremental learning algorithm, and the generalized mean shift clustering framework. Experimental results are presented that demonstrate the dynamics of the new algorithm on a set of simple test problems.
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The temperature dependence of the transport properties of the metallic phase of a frustrated Hubbard model on the hypercubic lattice at half-filling is calculated. Dynamical mean-held theory, which maps the Hubbard model onto a single impurity,Anderson model that is solved self-consistently, and becomes exact in the limit of large dimensionality, is used. As the temperature increases there is a smooth crossover from coherent Fermi liquid excitations at low temperatures to incoherent excitations at high temperatures. This crossover leads to a nonmonotonic temperature dependence for the resistance, thermopower, and Hall coefficient, unlike in conventional metals. The resistance smoothly increases from a quadratic temperature dependence at low temperatures to large values which can exceed the Mott-Ioffe-Regel value ha/e(2) (where a is a lattice constant) associated with mean free paths less than a lattice constant. Further signatures of the thermal destruction of quasiparticle excitations are a peak in the thermopower and the absence of a Drude peak in the optical conductivity. The results presented here are relevant to a wide range of strongly correlated metals, including transition metal oxides, strontium ruthenates, and organic metals.
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The present paper addresses two major concerns that were identified when developing neural network based prediction models and which can limit their wider applicability in the industry. The first problem is that it appears neural network models are not readily available to a corrosion engineer. Therefore the first part of this paper describes a neural network model of CO2 corrosion which was created using a standard commercial software package and simple modelling strategies. It was found that such a model was able to capture practically all of the trends noticed in the experimental data with acceptable accuracy. This exercise has proven that a corrosion engineer could readily develop a neural network model such as the one described below for any problem at hand, given that sufficient experimental data exist. This applies even in the cases when the understanding of the underlying processes is poor. The second problem arises from cases when all the required inputs for a model are not known or can be estimated with a limited degree of accuracy. It seems advantageous to have models that can take as input a range rather than a single value. One such model, based on the so-called Monte Carlo approach, is presented. A number of comparisons are shown which have illustrated how a corrosion engineer might use this approach to rapidly test the sensitivity of a model to the uncertainities associated with the input parameters. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
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In this paper we construct predictor-corrector (PC) methods based on the trivial predictor and stochastic implicit Runge-Kutta (RK) correctors for solving stochastic differential equations. Using the colored rooted tree theory and stochastic B-series, the order condition theorem is derived for constructing stochastic RK methods based on PC implementations. We also present detailed order conditions of the PC methods using stochastic implicit RK correctors with strong global order 1.0 and 1.5. A two-stage implicit RK method with strong global order 1.0 and a four-stage implicit RK method with strong global order 1.5 used as the correctors are constructed in this paper. The mean-square stability properties and numerical results of the PC methods based on these two implicit RK correctors are reported.
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We analyze the sequences of round-off errors of the orbits of a discretized planar rotation, from a probabilistic angle. It was shown [Bosio & Vivaldi, 2000] that for a dense set of parameters, the discretized map can be embedded into an expanding p-adic dynamical system, which serves as a source of deterministic randomness. For each parameter value, these systems can generate infinitely many distinct pseudo-random sequences over a finite alphabet, whose average period is conjectured to grow exponentially with the bit-length of the initial condition (the seed). We study some properties of these symbolic sequences, deriving a central limit theorem for the deviations between round-off and exact orbits, and obtain bounds concerning repetitions of words. We also explore some asymptotic problems computationally, verifying, among other things, that the occurrence of words of a given length is consistent with that of an abstract Bernoulli sequence.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: Recent studies have demonstrated that exercise capacity is an independent predictor of mortality in women. Normative values of exercise capacity for age in women have not been well established. Our objectives were to construct a nomogram to permit determination of predicted exercise capacity for age in women and to assess the predictive value of the nomogram with respect to survival. METHODS: A total of 5721 asymptomatic women underwent a symptom-limited, maximal stress test. Exercise capacity was measured in metabolic equivalents (MET). Linear regression was used to estimate the mean MET achieved for age. A nomogram was established to allow the percentage of predicted exercise capacity to be estimated on the basis of age and the exercise capacity achieved. The nomogram was then used to determine the percentage of predicted exercise capacity for both the original cohort and a referral population of 4471 women with cardiovascular symptoms who underwent a symptom-limited stress test. Survival data were obtained for both cohorts, and Cox survival analysis was used to estimate the rates of death from any cause and from cardiac causes in each group. RESULTS: The linear regression equation for predicted exercise capacity (in MET) on the basis of age in the cohort of asymptomatic women was as follows: predicted MET = 14.7 - (0.13 x age). The risk of death among asymptomatic women whose exercise capacity was less than 85 percent of the predicted value for age was twice that among women whose exercise capacity was at least 85 percent of the age-predicted value (P<0.001). Results were similar in the cohort of symptomatic women. CONCLUSIONS: We have established a nomogram for predicted exercise capacity on the basis of age that is predictive of survival among both asymptomatic and symptomatic women. These findings could be incorporated into the interpretation of exercise stress tests, providing additional prognostic information for risk stratification.
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Let f : [0, 1] x R2 -> R be a function satisfying the Caxatheodory conditions and t(1 - t)e(t) epsilon L-1 (0, 1). Let a(i) epsilon R and xi(i) (0, 1) for i = 1,..., m - 2 where 0 < xi(1) < xi(2) < (...) < xi(m-2) < 1 - In this paper we study the existence of C[0, 1] solutions for the m-point boundary value problem [GRAPHICS] The proof of our main result is based on the Leray-Schauder continuation theorem.
Resumo:
Background Regression to the mean (RTM) is a statistical phenomenon that can make natural variation in repeated data look like real change. It happens when unusually large or small measurements tend to be followed by measurements that are closer to the mean. Methods We give some examples of the phenomenon, and discuss methods to overcome it at the design and analysis stages of a study. Results The effect of RTM in a sample becomes more noticeable with increasing measurement error and when follow-up measurements are only examined on a sub-sample selected using a baseline value. Conclusions RTM is a ubiquitous phenomenon in repeated data and should always be considered as a possible cause of an observed change. Its effect can be alleviated through better study design and use of suitable statistical methods.