Recent developments in population projection methodology: A review

In this paper we survey five streams of research that have made important contributions to population projection methodology over the last decade. These are: (i) the evaluation of population forecasts; (ii) probabilistic methods; (iii) experiments in the projection of migration; (iv) projecting dimensions additional to age, sex and region; and (v) the use of scenarios for 'what if?' analyses and understanding population dynamics. Key developments in these areas are discussed, and a number of opportunities for further research are identified. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Excitability changes in human forearm corticospinal projections and spinal reflex pathways during rhythmic voluntary movement of the opposite limb

Rhythmic movements brought about by the contraction of muscles on one side of the body give rise to phase-locked changes in the excitability of the homologous motor pathways of the opposite limb. Such crossed facilitation should favour patterns of bimanual coordination in which homologous muscles are engaged simultaneously, and disrupt those in which the muscles are activated in an alternating fashion. In order to examine these issues, we obtained responses to transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), to stimulation of the cervicomedullary junction (cervicomedullary-evoked potentials, CMEPs), to peripheral nerve stimulation (H-reflexes and f-waves), and elicited stretch reflexes in the relaxed right flexor carpi radialis (FCR) muscle during rhythmic (2 Hz) flexion and extension movements of the opposite (left) wrist. The potentials evoked by TMS in right FCR were potentiated during the phases of movement in which the left FCR was most strongly engaged. In contrast, CMEPs were unaffected by the movements of the opposite limb. These results suggest that there was systematic variation of the excitability of the motor cortex ipsilateral to the moving limb. H-reflexes and stretch reflexes recorded in right FCR were modulated in phase with the activation of left FCR. As the f-waves did not vary in corresponding fashion, it appears that the phasic modulation of the H-reflex was mediated by presynaptic inhibition of Ia afferents. The observation that both H-reflexes and f-waves were depressed markedly during movements of the opposite indicates that there may also have been postsynaptic inhibition or disfacilitation of the largest motor units. Our findings indicate that the patterned modulation of excitability in motor pathways that occurs during rhythmic movements of the opposite limb is mediated primarily by interhemispheric interactions between cortical motor areas.

A hybrid probabilistic criterion for market-based transmission expansion planning

Market-based transmission expansion planning gives information to investors on where is the most cost efficient place to invest and brings benefits to those who invest in this grid. However, both market issue and power system adequacy problems are system planers’ concern. In this paper, a hybrid probabilistic criterion of Expected Economical Loss (EEL) is proposed as an index to evaluate the systems’ overall expected economical losses during system operation in a competitive market. It stands on both investors’ and planner’s point of view and will further improves the traditional reliability cost. By applying EEL, it is possible for system planners to obtain a clear idea regarding the transmission network’s bottleneck and the amount of losses arises from this weak point. Sequentially, it enables planners to assess the worth of providing reliable services. Also, the EEL will contain valuable information for moneymen to undertake their investment. This index could truly reflect the random behaviors of power systems and uncertainties from electricity market. The performance of the EEL index is enhanced by applying Normalized Coefficient of Probability (NCP), so it can be utilized in large real power systems. A numerical example is carried out on IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS), which will show how the EEL can predict the current system bottleneck under future operational conditions and how to use EEL as one of planning objectives to determine future optimal plans. A well-known simulation method, Monte Carlo simulation, is employed to achieve the probabilistic characteristic of electricity market and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is used as a multi-objective optimization tool.

Probabilistic Action System Trace Semantics

Action systems are a construct for reasoning about concurrent, reactive systems, in which concurrent behaviour is described by interleaving atomic actions. Sere and Troubitsyna have proposed an extension to action systems in which actions may be expressed and composed using discrete probabilistic choice as well as demonic nondeterministic choice. In this paper we develop a trace-based semantics for probabilistic action systems. This semantics provides a simple theoretical base on which practical refinement rules for probabilistic action systems may be justified.

Central projections of Drosophila sensory neurons in the transition from embryo to larva

Sensory axons of different sensory modalities project into typical domains within insect ganglia. Tactile and gustatory axons project into a ventral layer of neuropil and proprioceptive afferents, including chordotonal axone, into an intermediate or dorsal layer. Here, we describe the central projections of sensory neurons in the first instar Drosophila larva, relating them to the projection of the same sensory afferents in the embryo and to sensory afferents of similar type in other insects. Several neurons show marked morphologic changes in their axon terminals in the transition between the embryo and larva. During a short morphogenetic period late in embryogenesis, the axon terminals of the dorsal bipolar dendrite stretch receptor change their shape and their distribution within the neuromere. In the larva, external sense organ neurons (es) project their axons into a ventral layer of neuropil. Chordotonal sensory neurons (ch) project into a slightly more dorsal region that is comparable to their projection in adults. The multiple dendrite (md) neurons show two distinctive classes of projection. One group of md neurons projects into the ventral-most neuropil region, the same region into which es neurons project. Members of this group are related by lineage to es neurons or share a requirement for expression of the same proneural gene during development. Other md neurons project into a more dorsal region. Sensory receptors projecting into dorsal neuropil possibly provide proprioceptive feedback from the periphery to central motorneurons and are candidates for future genetic and cellular analysis of simple neural circuitry. J. Comp. Neurol. 425:34-44, 2000. (C) 2000 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Projections from the substantia nigra pars reticulata to the motor thalamus of the rat: Single axon reconstructions and immunohistochemical study

This is a study in the rat of the distribution of specific neurotransmitters in neurones projecting from the substantia nigra reticulata (SNR) to the ventrolateral (VL) and ventromedial (VM) thalamic nuclei. Individual axons projecting from the SNR to these thalamic nuclei have also been reconstructed following small injection of the anterograde tracer dextran biotin into the the SNR. Analysis of reconstructions revealed two populations of SNR neurones projecting onto the VL and VM thalamic nuclei. One group projects directly onto the VM and VL, and the other projects to the VM/VL and to the parafascicular nucleus. In another set of experiments Fluoro-Gold was injected into the VL/VM to label SNR projection neurones retrogradely, and immunohistochemistry was performed to determine the distribution of choline acetyltransferase (ChAT), vesicular acetylcholine transporter (VAChT), gamma -aminobutyric acid (GABA), and glutamate in Fluoro-Gold-labelled SNR projection neurones. Most SNR-VL/VM thalamic projection neurones were immunoreactive to acetylcholine or glutamate, whereas only 25% of the projection neurones were found to be immunoreactive to GABA. (C) 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Somatotopic organization and cortical projections of the ventrobasal complex of the flying fox: an "inverted" wing representation in the thalamus

The present study investigates the somatotopic representation in the somatosensory thalamus of a megachiropteran bat. Using standard microelectrode mapping techniques, representational maps were generated for the ventrobasal (Vb) and posterior (Po) thalamic complexes of the Grey-headed flying fox. Anatomical tracing from neocortical injections provided additional data confirming the somatotopy found physiologically. A full representation of the body surface innervated by the trigeminal and spinal nerves was found. However, in contrast with other mammals, the representations of the forelimb and adjacent thoracic trunk within the thalamus were inverted. This means that the distal portions of the wing membrane and the tips of the digits were represented dorsally in Vb, and the thoracic trunk was represented ventrally In Po the digit tips were represented in the ventral most portion and the thoracic trunk in the dorsal portion of the nucleus. These results are discussed in relation to similarities of megachiropteran somatosensory thalamic nuclei to those of other mammalian species and in relation to the formation of thalamic somatotopic maps and fiber sorting.

Probabilistic modelling of CO2 corrosion laboratory data using neural networks

The present paper addresses two major concerns that were identified when developing neural network based prediction models and which can limit their wider applicability in the industry. The first problem is that it appears neural network models are not readily available to a corrosion engineer. Therefore the first part of this paper describes a neural network model of CO2 corrosion which was created using a standard commercial software package and simple modelling strategies. It was found that such a model was able to capture practically all of the trends noticed in the experimental data with acceptable accuracy. This exercise has proven that a corrosion engineer could readily develop a neural network model such as the one described below for any problem at hand, given that sufficient experimental data exist. This applies even in the cases when the understanding of the underlying processes is poor. The second problem arises from cases when all the required inputs for a model are not known or can be estimated with a limited degree of accuracy. It seems advantageous to have models that can take as input a range rather than a single value. One such model, based on the so-called Monte Carlo approach, is presented. A number of comparisons are shown which have illustrated how a corrosion engineer might use this approach to rapidly test the sensitivity of a model to the uncertainities associated with the input parameters. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and reorganization of corticospinal projections in EphA4 deficient mice

The Eph family of receptor tyrosine kinases and their ligands, the ephrins, are important regulators of axon guidance and cell migration in the developing nervous system. Inactivation of the EphA4 gene results in axon guidance defects of the corticospinal tract, a major descending motor pathway that originates in the cortex and terminates at all levels of the spinal cord. In this investigation, we report that although the initial development of the corticospinal projection is normal through the cortex, internal capsule, cerebral peduncle, and medulla in the brain of EphA4 deficient animals, corticospinal axons exhibit gross abnormalities when they enter the gray matter of the spinal cord. Notably, many corticospinal axons fail to remain confined to one side of the spinal cord during development and instead, aberrantly project across the midline, terminating ipsilateral to their cells of origin. Given the possible repulsive interactions between EphA4 and one of its ligands, ephrinB3, this defect could be consistent with a loss of responsiveness by corticospinal axons to ephrinB3 that is expressed at the spinal cord midline. Furthermore, we show that EphA4 deficient animals exhibit ventral displacement of the mature corticospinal termination pattern, suggesting that developing corticospinal axons, which may also express ephrinB3, fail to be repelled from areas of high EphA4 expression in the intermediate zone of the normal spinal cord. Taken together, these results suggest that the dual expression of EphA4 on corticospinal axons and also within the surrounding gray matter is very important for the correct development and termination of the corticospinal projection within the spinal cord. J. Comp. Neurol. 436: 248-262, 2001. (C) 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A probabilistic analysis of Clostridium perfringens growth during food service operations

The purpose of this study was threefold: first, the study was designed to illustrate the use of data and information collected in food safety surveys in a quantitative risk assessment. In this case, the focus was on the food service industry; however, similar data from other parts of the food chain could be similarly incorporated. The second objective was to quantitatively describe and better understand the role that the food service industry plays in the safety of food. The third objective was to illustrate the additional decision-making information that is available when uncertainty and variability are incorporated into the modelling of systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Use of a probabilistic neural network to reduce costs of selecting construction rock

Rocks used as construction aggregate in temperate climates deteriorate to differing degrees because of repeated freezing and thawing. The magnitude of the deterioration depends on the rock's properties. Aggregate, including crushed carbonate rock, is required to have minimum geotechnical qualities before it can be used in asphalt and concrete. In order to reduce chances of premature and expensive repairs, extensive freeze-thaw tests are conducted on potential construction rocks. These tests typically involve 300 freeze-thaw cycles and can take four to five months to complete. Less time consuming tests that (1) predict durability as well as the extended freeze-thaw test or that (2) reduce the number of rocks subject to the extended test, could save considerable amounts of money. Here we use a probabilistic neural network to try and predict durability as determined by the freeze-thaw test using four rock properties measured on 843 limestone samples from the Kansas Department of Transportation. Modified freeze-thaw tests and less time consuming specific gravity (dry), specific gravity (saturated), and modified absorption tests were conducted on each sample. Durability factors of 95 or more as determined from the extensive freeze-thaw tests are viewed as acceptable—rocks with values below 95 are rejected. If only the modified freeze-thaw test is used to predict which rocks are acceptable, about 45% are misclassified. When 421 randomly selected samples and all four standardized and scaled variables were used to train aprobabilistic neural network, the rate of misclassification of 422 independent validation samples dropped to 28%. The network was trained so that each class (group) and each variable had its own coefficient (sigma). In an attempt to reduce errors further, an additional class was added to the training data to predict durability values greater than 84 and less than 98, resulting in only 11% of the samples misclassified. About 43% of the test data was classed by the neural net into the middle group—these rocks should be subject to full freeze-thaw tests. Thus, use of the probabilistic neural network would meanthat the extended test would only need be applied to 43% of the samples, and 11% of the rocks classed as acceptable would fail early.

Visual thalamocortical projections in the flying fox: Parallel pathways to striate and extrastriate areas

We studied thalamic projections to the visual cortex in flying foxes, animals that share neural features believed to resemble those present in the brains of early primates. Neurones labeled by injections of fluorescent tracers in striate and extrastriate cortices were charted relative to the architectural boundaries of thalamic nuclei. Three main findings are reported: First, there are parallel lateral geniculate nucleus (LGN) projections to striate and extrastriate cortices. Second, the pulvinar complex is expansive, and contains multiple subdivisions. Third, across the visual thalamus, the location of cells labeled after visual cortex injections changes systematically, with caudal visual areas receiving their strongest projections from the most lateral thalamic nuclei, and rostral areas receiving strong projections from medial nuclei. We identified three architectural layers in the LGN, and three subdivisions of the pulvinar complex. The outer LGN layer contained the largest cells, and had strong projections to the areas V1, V2 and V3. Neurones in the intermediate LGN layer were intermediate in size, and projected to V1 and, less densely, to V2. The layer nearest to the origin of the optic radiation contained the smallest cells, and projected not only to V1, V2 and V3, but also, weakly, to the occipitotemporal area (OT, which is similar to primate middle temporal area) and the occipitoparietal area (OP, a third tier area located near the dorsal midline). V1, V2 and V3 received strong projections from the lateral and intermediate subdivisions of the pulvinar complex, while OP and OT received their main thalamic input from the intermediate and medial subdivisions of the pulvinar complex. These results suggest parallels with the carnivore visual system, and indicate that the restriction of the projections of the large- and intermediatesized LGN layers to V1, observed in present-day primates, evolved from a more generalized mammalian condition. (C) 2004 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries

The purpose of this work was to model lung cancer mortality as a function of past exposure to tobacco and to forecast age-sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates. A 3-factor age-period-cohort (APC) model, in which the period variable is replaced by the product of average tar content and adult tobacco consumption per capita, was estimated for the US, UK, Canada and Australia by the maximum likelihood method. Age- and sex-specific tobacco consumption was estimated from historical data on smoking prevalence and total tobacco consumption. Lung cancer mortality was derived from vital registration records. Future tobacco consumption, tar content and the cohort parameter were projected by autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) estimation. The optimal exposure variable was found to be the product of average tar content and adult cigarette consumption per capita, lagged for 2530 years for both males and females in all 4 countries. The coefficient of the product of average tar content and tobacco consumption per capita differs by age and sex. In all models, there was a statistically significant difference in the coefficient of the period variable by sex. In all countries, male age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates peaked in the 1980s and declined thereafter. Female mortality rates are projected to peak in the first decade of this century. The multiplicative models of age, tobacco exposure and cohort fit the observed data between 1950 and 1999 reasonably well, and time-series models yield plausible past trends of relevant variables. Despite a significant reduction in tobacco consumption and average tar content of cigarettes sold over the past few decades, the effect on lung cancer mortality is affected by the time lag between exposure and established disease. As a result, the burden of lung cancer among females is only just reaching, or soon will reach, its peak but has been declining for I to 2 decades in men. Future sex differences in lung cancer mortality are likely to be greater in North America than Australia and the UK due to differences in exposure patterns between the sexes. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A probabilistic switch model of information flow in social networks: Application for virtual circuits to organizational design

Network building and exchange of information by people within networks is crucial to the innovation process. Contrary to older models, in social networks the flow of information is noncontinuous and nonlinear. There are critical barriers to information flow that operate in a problematic manner. New models and new analytic tools are needed for these systems. This paper introduces the concept of virtual circuits and draws on recent concepts of network modelling and design to introduce a probabilistic switch theory that can be described using matrices. It can be used to model multistep information flow between people within organisational networks, to provide formal definitions of efficient and balanced networks and to describe distortion of information as it passes along human communication channels. The concept of multi-dimensional information space arises naturally from the use of matrices. The theory and the use of serial diagonal matrices have applications to organisational design and to the modelling of other systems. It is hypothesised that opinion leaders or creative individuals are more likely to emerge at information-rich nodes in networks. A mathematical definition of such nodes is developed and it does not invariably correspond with centrality as defined by early work on networks.