Is the Australian wool futures market efficient as a predictor of spot prices?

Giles and Goss (1980) have suggested that, if a futures market provides a forward pricing function, then it is an efficient market. In this article a simple test for whether the Australian Wool Futures market is efficient is proposed. The test is based on applying cointegration techniques to test the Law of One Price over a three, six, nine, and twelve month spread of futures prices. We found that the futures market is efficient for up to a six-month spread, but no further into the future. Because futures market prices can be used to predict spot prices up to six months in advance, woolgrowers can use the futures price to assess when they market their clip, but not for longer-term production planning decisions. (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Returns to farm-level soil conservation on tropical steep slopes: The case of the Eritrean highlands

This study conducts an economic analysis of investment in simple soil conservation technologies in the highlands of Eritrea. The data used in the analysis were obtained from a farm survey and supplemented with data from secondary sources. Risk analysis techniques are used to take account of the uncertainties regarding the relationship between soil erosion and crop yield. The financial analysis reveals negative net present values (NPVs) and internal rates of return (IRRs) below 12 per cent for various slope categories. On the other hand, the economic analysis returns positive NPVs and IRRs of over 20 per cent. The results clearly indicate that in-vestment in soil conservation technology may not be a viable short-term proposition from the farmer's point of view and yet the net social benefits are positive. There is a strong case for government to provide incentives for soil conservation in view of the economic benefits.

Modelling socially optimal land allocations for sugar cane growing in North Queensland: a linked mathematical programming and choice modelling study

A modelling framework is developed to determine the joint economic and environmental net benefits of alternative land allocation strategies. Estimates of community preferences for preservation of natural land, derived from a choice modelling study, are used as input to a model of agricultural production in an optimisation framework. The trade-offs between agricultural production and environmental protection are analysed using the sugar industry of the Herbert River district of north Queensland as an example. Spatially-differentiated resource attributes and the opportunity costs of natural land determine the optimal tradeoffs between production and conservation for a range of sugar prices.

Patents and the CGIAR system of International Agricultural Research Centres' germplasm collections under the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture

A key controversy in negotiating the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture, and the likely long-term effectiveness of the agreement, is the way in which the intellectual property provisions are interpreted and applied to the key genetic resources forming the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) system of International Agricultural Research Centres' (IARC) collections. This paper reviews the intellectual property provisions in the treaty and examines the likely consequences from patenting under the Patents Act 1990 over materials derived from these collections. The consequence is argued to be significant and, over time, these practices are likely to deplete the usefulness of these collections and undermine the relevance of the treaty. The paper concludes that Australia's interests might best be served by arguing that access to these collections, and the other materials under the treaty, be subject to a non-exclusive, royalty free licence for any use of the derived materials to develop useful new plant varieties.

A history of agricultural production at Neolithic Catalhoyuk East, Turkey

A history of agricultural production is proposed for Neolithic Catalhoyuk East, central Turkey, using archaeobotanical, environmental, population and settlement studies. In the aceramic early phase of site occupation, intensive strategies developed as changes in population and environment caused stress on food supplies produced within a limited territory. Food exchange may have been part of the social means by which Catalhoyuk and nearby contemporary settlements amalgamated into the single site of the main occupation phase. Population change, inherited territories and continuing environmental impact led to the development of an extensive system of agriculture using widely dispersed dry soils, with an intensive regime applied to nearby alluvial soils. Social tensions caused by the evolution of this system contributed to the fissioning of the site by the Chalcolithic.

Limited ecoclinal variation found in Malva parviflora (small-flowered mallow) across the Mediterranean-climatic agricultural region of Western Australia

Malva parviflora L. populations were collected from 24 locations across the Mediterranean-climatic agricultural region of Western Australia and grown in Perth in a common garden experiment. Seventeen morphometric and taxonomic measurements were taken and genetic variation was investigated by performing principal components analysis (PCA). Taxonomic measurements confirmed that all plants used in the study were M. parviflora. Greater variation occurred within populations than between populations. Separation between populations was only evident between northern and southern populations along principal components 2 (PC2), which was due mainly to flowering time. Flowering time and consequently photoperiod were highly correlated with latitude and regression analysis revealed a close relationship (r(2) = 0.6). Additionally, the pollination system of M. parviflora was examined. Plants were able to self-pollinate without the need for external vectors and the pollen ovule ratio (31 +/- 1.3) revealed that M. parviflora is most likely to be an obligate inbreeder with a slight potential for outcrossing. The limited variation of M. parviflora enhances the likelihood of suitable control strategies being effective across a broad area.