A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

What are the economic prospects of developing aquaculture in Queensland to supply the low price white fillet market? Lessons from the US channel catfish industry

The farming of channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) is the largest (by volume and value) and most successful (in terms of market impact) aquaculture industry in the United States of America. Farmed channel catfish is the most consumed (in terms of volume per capita) fish fillet in the U.S. market. Within Australia, it has long been suggested by researchers and industry that silver perch (Bidyanus bidyanus) and possibly other endemic teraponid species possess similar biological attributes for aquaculture as channel catfish and may have the potential to generate a similar industry. The current teraponid industry in Australia, however, shows very little resemblance to the catfish industry, either in production style or market philosophy. A well established budget framework from the literature on U.S. channel catfish farming has been adapted for cost and climate conditions of the Burdekin region, Queensland, Australia. Breakeven prices for the hypothetical teraponid farms were found to be up to 50% higher than those published for catfish farms however were much lower than those reported for silver perch production in Australia using current, endemic styles of production. The breakeven prices for the hypothetical teraponid farms were most sensitive (in order of significance) to feed prices, production rates, interest rates, fingerling prices and electricity prices. At equivalent feed costs the costs of production between the hypothetical catfish farms in the Mississippi, U.S. and the hypothetical teraponid farms in the Burdekin, Australia were remarkably similar. The cost of feeds suitable for teraponid production in Australia are currently around double that of catfish feeds in the U.S. Issues currently hindering the development of a large scale teraponid industry in Australia are discussed.

Asset Price Instability and Policy Responses: The Legacy of Liberalisation

The debate about the dynamics and potential policy responses to asset inflation has intensified in recent years. Some analysts, notably Borio and Lowe, have called for 'subtle' changes to existing monetary targeting frameworks to try to deal with the problems of asset inflation and have attempted to developed indicators of financial vulnerability to aid this process. In contrast, this paper argues that the uncertainties involved in understanding financial market developments and their potential impact on the real economy are likely to remain too high to embolden policy makers. The political and institutional risks associated with policy errors are also significant. The fundamental premise that a liberalised financial system is based on 'efficient' market allocation cannot be overlooked. The corollary is that any serious attempt to stabilize financial market outcomes must involve at least a partial reversal of deregulation.

Methadone maintenance treatment reduces heroin injection in New South Wales prisons

The purpose of this study was to examine whether methadone maintenance treatment reduces injecting risk behaviour land therefore transmission of blood-borne viral infections) among prisoners in New South Wales (NSW), using comparison of retrospective reports of drug use in prisons for people who received standard drug treatment, time-limited methadone treatment and methadone maintenance treatment, The setting for the study was the NSW prison system. One hundred and eighty-five injecting drug users who had been recently released from NSW prisons were recruited in 1993, Self-reported drug use and injecting risk behaviour were compared in inmates who received standard drug treatment (counselling), time-limited methadone treatment and methadone maintenance treatment. HIV status was determined by serology, Intervention comprised high and low dose methadone treatment and counselling. The groups were similar in terms of most basic demographic characteristics but subjects who had been maintained on methadone reported a significantly lower prevalence of heroin injection, syringe sharing and scored lower on an HIV Risk-taking Behavioural Scale than subjects who received standard drug treatment and time-limited methadone treatment, This study suggests that methadone treatment is associated with reduced injecting risk behaviour in prison with adequate (greater than 60 mg) dose and duration in treatment. These treatment conditions are known to increase effectiveness in community-based methadone programmes. Prospective studies are required to evaluate the effectiveness of methadone programmes in the prevention of HIV and other blood-borne viral infections among IDU prisoners.

Methadone maintenance and drug-related crime

Using data from an evaluation of methadone maintenance treatment, this study investigated factors associated with continued involvement irt crime during treatment, and in particular whether there appeared to be differences in effectiveness of treatment between different methadone clinics. The methodology was an observational study, in which 304 patients attending three low-intervention, private methadone clinics in Sydney were interviewed on three occasions over a twelve month period. Outcome measures were self-reported criminal activity and police department records of convictions. By self-report, crime dropped, promptly and substantially on entry to treatment, to a level of acquisitive crime about one-eighth that reported during the last addiction period. Analysis of official records indicated that rates of acquisitive convictions were significantly lower in the in-treatment period compared to prior to entry to treatment, corroborating the changes suggested by self-report. Persisting involvement in crime in treatment was predicted by two factors: the cost of persisting use of illicit drugs, particularly cannabis, and ASPD symptom count. Treatment factors also were independently predictive of continued involvement in crime. By both self-report and official records, and adjusting for subject factors, treatment at one clinic teas associated with greater involvement in crime. This clinic operated in a chaotic and poorly organized way. it is concluded that crime during methadone treatment is substantially lower than during street addiction, although the extent of reduction depends on the quality of treatment being delivered.

Role of maintenance treatment in opioid dependence

Methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) involves the daily administration of the oral opioid agonist methadone as a treatment for opioid dependence-a persistent disorder with a substantial risk of premature death. MMT improves health and reduces illicit heroin use, infectious-disease transmission, and overdose death. However, its effectiveness is compromised if low maintenance doses of methadone (

Maintenance of cooperative and helping behaviors in reconstituted groups

The authors conducted a 1-year investigation of whether children, who had been trained in the previous school gear to cooperate, were able to use the skills they had been taught in reconstituted groups without additional training. Sixty-four 4th graders, who had participated in training in cooperative group behaviors in the previous gear, were assigned to the trained condition; 84 4th graders, who had not received any training, were assigned to the untrained condition. The children worked in mixed-ability (high, medium, low) gender-balanced groups (2 boys, 2 girls). Results indicate that the children in the trained groups were consistently more cooperative and helpful than their peers in the untrained groups, although they had not received refresher training in cooperative group behaviors.

Response to price and production risk: The case of Australian wheat

A model of Australian wheat grower supply response was specified under the constraints of price and yield uncertainty, risk aversion, partial adjustment, and quadratic costs. The model was solved to obtain area planted. The results of estimation indicate that risk arising from prices and climate have had a significant influence on producer decision making. The coefficient of relative risk aversion and short-run and long-run elasticities of supply with respect to price were calculated. Wheat growers' risk premium, expected at the start of the season for exposed price and yield risk, was 2.8 percent of revenue or 10.4 percent of profit as measured by producer surplus. (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Parent training skills and methadone maintenance: clinical opportunities and challenges

Children raised in substance abusing families show high rates of behavioural and emotional problems, in particular oppositional, defiant and non-compliant behaviours. While a range of social and individual factors correlate with poor parenting, it is often the quality of the parent-child relationship that mediates the effects of most other risk factors on child development. By addressing this relationship using behavioural family interventions, child behaviour problems have been reduced in multiple problem families. However, there has been little attempt to systematically evaluate such programs in substance abusing families. It is argued that methadone replacement programs provide a window of opportunity to deliver well-validated parent training programs that enhance the quality of parent-child relations. However, it is likely that such programs would need to be medium to long term and address issues beyond parent child relationships. How such interventions may be delivered and evaluated is discussed. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Indirect certainty equivalents for the firm facing price and production uncertainty

Producer decisionmaking under uncertainty is characterized using indirect objective functions. The characterization is for the class of producers with continuous and nondecreasing preferences over stochastic incomes who face both price and production uncertainty. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.