The impact of a reduction in drug supply on demand for and compliance with treatment for drug dependence

Background: In early 2001, Australia experienced a sudden, dramatic and;sustained decrease in heroin availability that was accompanied by sharp increases in price and decreases in street level purity-the so-called heroin shortage. These unprecedented changes occurred in a context of widespread treatment availability, which made it possible for the first time to examine the impact of a sharp reduction in heroin supply in New South Wales (NSW) on entry to and adherence with treatment for heroin dependence. Given the evidence of drug substitution by some users. the current paper also examines the effects of the shortage on entry to treatment for other forms of drug dependence. Methods: Interrupted time-series analysis of the number of persons entering opioid pharmacotherapy and other treatment modalities in NSW for heroin dependence and for the treatment for other types of drug dependence. Findings: The heroin shortage was associated with a reduction in the number of younger persons entering opioid pharmacotherapy. There was a dramatic decrease in the number of persons entering heroin withdrawal or assessment only treatment episodes. There appear to have been small improvements in adherence to and retention in heroin treatment after the reduction in heroin supply. Relatively small increases were observed in numbers being treated for cocaine dependence. Conclusions: In the context of good treatment provision, a reduction in heroin supply appeared to produce modest improvements in intermediate outcomes. Supply and demand reduction measures, when both are implemented successfully, may be complementary. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electricity market price spike forecast with data mining techniques

Electricity market price forecast is a changeling yet very important task for electricity market managers and participants. Due to the complexity and uncertainties in the power grid, electricity prices are highly volatile and normally carry with spikes. which may be (ens or even hundreds of times higher than the normal price. Such electricity spikes are very difficult to be predicted. So far. most of the research on electricity price forecast is based on the normal range electricity prices. This paper proposes a data mining based electricity price forecast framework, which can predict the normal price as well as the price spikes. The normal price can be, predicted by a previously proposed wavelet and neural network based forecast model, while the spikes are forecasted based on a data mining approach. This paper focuses on the spike prediction and explores the reasons for price spikes based on the measurement of a proposed composite supply-demand balance index (SDI) and relative demand index (RDI). These indices are able to reflect the relationship among electricity demand, electricity supply and electricity reserve capacity. The proposed model is based on a mining database including market clearing price, trading hour. electricity), demand, electricity supply and reserve. Bayesian classification and similarity searching techniques are used to mine the database to find out the internal relationships between electricity price spikes and these proposed. The mining results are used to form the price spike forecast model. This proposed model is able to generate forecasted price spike, level of spike and associated forecast confidence level. The model is tested with the Queensland electricity market data with promising results. Crown Copyright (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Empirical investigation of investment behaviour in Australia's pastoral region

Optimal intertemporal investment behaviour of Australian pastoralists is modelled using panel data for the period 1979-1993. Results indicate that quasi-fixity of inputs of labour, capital, sheep numbers and cattle numbers is characteristic of production in the pastoral region. It takes about two years for labour, four years for capital and a little over two years for both sheep numbers and cattle numbers to adjust towards long-run optimal levels. Results also indicate that, after accounting for adjustment costs, own-price product supply and input demand responses are inelastic in both the short and long run.

Output price subsidies in a stochastic world

This article studies the comparative statics of output subsidies for firms, with monotonic preferences over costs and returns, that face price and production uncertainty. The modeling of deficiency payments, support-price schemes, and stochastic supply shifts in a state-space framework is discussed. It is shown how these notions can be used, via a simple application of Shephard's lemma, to analyze input-demand shifts once comparative-static results for supply are available. A range of comparative-static results for supply are then developed and discussed.

Effect of root zone temperature on oilseed rape (Brassica napus) response to boron

Oilseed rape (Brassica napus) is sensitive to low boron (B) supply, and its growth response to B may be influenced by soil temperature. To test the relationship between B and temperature, oilseed rape (cv. Hyola 42) seedlings were grown at 10 degrees C (low) root zone temperature (RZT) with B supply from deficient to adequate B levels until growth of low B plants just began to slow down. Half of the pots were then transferred to 20 degrees C (warm) RZT for 11 days before they were moved back to 10 degrees C RZT for the final 4 days. Both plant dry mass and B uptake increased after plants were exposed to warm RZT. However, plant B deficiency was exacerbated by warm RZT in low B plants because of increased relative growth rate and shoot-root ratio without a commensurate increase in B uptake rate. It is concluded that RZT above the critical threshold for chilling injury in oilseed rape can nevertheless affect the incidence of B deficiency by altering shoot-root ratio and hence the balance between shoot B demand and B uptake.

Optimization of integrated chemical-biological degradation of a reactive azo dye using response surface methodology

The integrated chemical-biological degradation combining advanced oxidation by UV/H2O2 followed by aerobic biodegradation was used to degrade C.I. Reactive Azo Red 195A, commonly used in the textile industry in Australia. An experimental design based on the response surface method was applied to evaluate the interactive effects of influencing factors (UV irradiation time, initial hydrogen peroxide dosage and recirculation ratio of the system) on decolourisation efficiency and optimizing the operating conditions of the treatment process. The effects were determined by the measurement of dye concentration and soluble chemical oxygen demand (S-COD). The results showed that the dye and S-COD removal were affected by all factors individually and interactively. Maximal colour degradation performance was predicted, and experimentally validated, with no recirculation, 30 min UV irradiation and 500 mg H2O2/L. The model predictions for colour removal, based on a three-factor/five-level Box-Wilson central composite design and the response surface method analysis, were found to be very close to additional experimental results obtained under near optimal conditions. This demonstrates the benefits of this approach in achieving good predictions while minimising the number of experiments required. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of training on the response of plasma vascular endothelial growth factor to exercise in patients with peripheral arterial disease

Expansion of the capillary network, or angiogenesis, occurs following endurance training. This process, which is reliant on the presence of VEGF (vascular endothelial growth factor), is an adaptation to a chronic mismatch between oxygen demand and supply. Patients with IC (intermittent claudication) experience pain during exercise associated with an inadequate oxygen delivery to the muscles. Therefore the aims of the present study were to examine the plasma VEGF response to acute exercise, and to establish whether exercise training alters this response in patients with IC. In Part A, blood was collected from patients with IC (n = 18) before and after (+ 20 and + 60 min post-exercise) a maximal walking test to determine the plasma VEGF response to acute exercise. VEGF was present in the plasma of patients (45.11 +/- 29.96 pg/ml) and was unchanged in response to acute exercise. Part B was a training study to determine whether exercise training altered the VEGF response to acute exercise. Patients were randomly assigned to a treatment group (TMT; n = 7) that completed 6 weeks of high-intensity treadmill training, or to a control group (CON; n = 6). All patients completed a maximal walking test before and after the intervention, with blood samples drawn as for Part A. Training had no effect on plasma VEGF at rest or in response to acute exercise, despite a significant increase in maximal walking time in the TMT group (915 + 533 to 1206 + 500 s; P = 0.009) following the intervention. The absence of a change in plasma VEGF may reflect altered VEGF binding at the endothelium, although this cannot be confirmed by the present data.

Inhibition, encoding specificity, and response availability revisited

In the think/no-think paradigm people practice “suppressing” a learned response to a cue. Practice at suppression appears to produce a long-lasting inhibition of the suppressed response, as evidenced by a subsequent failure to recall the response to an extralist (associatively related, non-studied) cue. Critical to this interpretation is the assumption that suppression practice is necessary. A series of interference paradigms, which do not involve suppression practice and which are structurally similar to the think/no-think paradigm, provide evidence against the inhibition interpretation. Additional evidence against inhibition derives from our demonstrations herewith that the findings from the think/no-think paradigm can be replicated without any apparent suppression requirement. Furthermore, the results from all of these paradigms can be explained by the same simple principle. Namely, that when an item exists in an extended associative network, strengthening the item makes it interfere with the recall of other items in the network.