Low-density koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in the mulgalands of south-west Queensland. III. Broad-scale patterns of habitat use

To date there have been few quantitative studies of the distribution of, and relative habitat utilisation by, koalas in the mulgalands of Queensland. To examine these parameters we applied habitat-accessibility and relative habitat-utilisation indices to estimates of faecal pellet density sampled at 149 sites across the region. Modelling the presence of pellets using logistic regression showed that the potential range of accessible habitats and relative habitat use varied greatly across the region, with rainfall being probably the most important determinant of distribution. Within that distribution, landform and rainfall were both important factors affecting habitat preference. Modelling revealed vastly different probabilities of finding a pellet under trees depending on the tree species, canopy size, and location within the region.

Using context and preferences to implement self-adapting pervasive computing applications

Applications that exploit contextual information in order to adapt their behaviour to dynamically changing operating environments and user requirements are increasingly being explored as part of the vision of pervasive or ubiquitous computing. Despite recent advances in infrastructure to support these applications through the acquisition, interpretation and dissemination of context data from sensors, they remain prohibitively difficult to develop and have made little penetration beyond the laboratory. This situation persists largely due to a lack of appropriately high-level abstractions for describing, reasoning about and exploiting context information as a basis for adaptation. In this paper, we present our efforts to address this challenge, focusing on our novel approach involving the use of preference information as a basis for making flexible adaptation decisions. We also discuss our experiences in applying our conceptual and software frameworks for context and preference modelling to a case study involving the development of an adaptive communication application.

Using the effect size to model change in preference values from descriptive health status

Objectives: This pilot study describes a modelling approach to translate group-level changes in health status into changes in preference values, by using the effect size (ES) to summarize group-level improvement. Methods: ESs are the standardized mean difference between treatment groups in standard deviation (SD) units. Vignettes depicting varying severity in SD decrements on the SF-12 mental health summary scale, with corresponding symptom severity profiles, were valued by a convenience sample of general practitioners (n = 42) using the rating scale (RS) and time trade-off methods. Translation factors between ES differences and change in preference value were developed for five mental disorders, such that ES from published meta-analyses could be transformed into predicted changes in preference values. Results: An ES difference in health status was associated with an average 0.171-0.204 difference in preference value using the RS, and 0.104-0.158 using the time trade off. Conclusions: This observed relationship may be particular to the specific versions of the measures employed in the present study. With further development using different raters and preference measures, this approach may expand the evidence base available for modelling preference change for economic analyses from existing data.

Single patient (n-of-1) trials with binary treatment preference

The use of a fully parametric Bayesian method for analysing single patient trials based on the notion of treatment 'preference' is described. This Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach allows for full parameter uncertainty, use of prior information and the modelling of individual and patient sub-group structures. It provides updated probabilistic results for individual patients, and groups of patients with the same medical condition, as they are sequentially enrolled into individualized trials using the same medication alternatives. Two clinically interpretable criteria for determining a patient's response are detailed and illustrated using data from a previously published paper under two different prior information scenarios. Copyright (C) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Weibull model selection for reliability modelling

A large number of models have been derived from the two-parameter Weibull distribution and are referred to as Weibull models. They exhibit a wide range of shapes for the density and hazard functions, which makes them suitable for modelling complex failure data sets. The WPP and IWPP plot allows one to determine in a systematic manner if one or more of these models are suitable for modelling a given data set. This paper deals with this topic.

Variants of temporal defeasible logics for modelling norm modifications

This paper proposes some variants of Temporal Defeasible Logic (TDL) to reason about normative modifications. These variants make it possible to differentiate cases in which, for example, modifications at some time change legal rules but their conclusions persist afterwards from cases where also their conclusions are blocked.

Air Bubble Entrainment in Hydraulic Jumps: Physical Modelling and Scale Effects

A hydraulic jump is characterised by strong energy dissipation and air entrainment. In the present study, new air-water flow measurements were performed in hydraulic jumps with partially-developed flow conditions in relatively large-size facilities with phase-detection probes. The experiments were conducted with identical Froude numbers, but a range of Reynolds numbers and relative channel widths. The results showed drastic scale effects at small Reynolds numbers in terms of void fraction and bubble count rate distributions. The void fraction distributions implied comparatively greater detrainment at low Reynolds numbers leading to a lesser overall aeration of the jump roller, while dimensionless bubble count rates were drastically lower especially in the mixing layer. The experimental results suggested also that the relative channel width had little effect on the air-water flow properties for identical inflow Froude and Reynolds numbers.

Modelling fungal growth on surfaces

Fungal growth in time and space at the substrate surface was modelled for a simple system mimicking solid-state fermentation, using a polycarbonate Nucleopore membrane laid over a glucose solution. Biomass production depends on both tip density and the diffusion of glucose within the fungal hyphae. The model predicts early increases in both height and concentration, followed by a period in which the biomass profile moves with a constant wavefront. The rate of increase in height increases as tip diffusivity increases or as the Monod saturation constant for glucose decreases.

Erosion/productivity modelling of maize farming in the Philippine uplands part II: Simulation of alternative farming methods

A version of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) capable of simulating the key agronomic aspects of intercropping maize between legume shrub hedgerows was described and parameterised in the first paper of this series (Nelson et al., this issue). In this paper, APSIM is used to simulate maize yields and soil erosion from traditional open-field farming and hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands. Two variants of open-field farming were simulated using APSIM, continuous and fallow, for comparison with intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows. Continuous open-field maize farming was predicted to be unsustainable in the long term, while fallow open-field farming was predicted to slow productivity decline by spreading the effect of erosion over a larger cropping area. Hedgerow intercropping was predicted to reduce erosion by maintaining soil surface cover during periods of intense rainfall, contributing to sustainable production of maize in the long term. In the third paper in this series, Nelson et al. (this issue) use cost-benefit analysis to compare the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to traditional open-field farming of maize in relatively inaccessible upland areas. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Erosion/productivity modelling of maize farming in the Philippine uplands part III: Economic analysis of alternative farming methods

Two previous papers in this series (Nelson et al., this issue) described the use of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) to simulate the effect of erosion on maize yields from open-field farming and hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands. In this paper, maize yields simulated with APSIM are used to compare the economic viability of intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows with that of continuous and fallow open-field farming of maize. The analysis focuses on the economic incentives of upland farmers to adopt hedgerow intercropping, discussing farmers' planning horizons, access to credit and security of land tenure, as well as maize pricing in the Philippines. Insecure land tenure has limited the planning horizons of upland farmers, and high establishment costs reduce the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to continuous and fallow open-field farming in the short term, In the long term, high discount rates and share-tenancy arrangements in which landlords do not contribute to establishment costs reduce the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to fallow open-field farming, (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Finite element modelling of temperature gradient driven rock alteration and mineralization in porous rock masses

We present finite element simulations of temperature gradient driven rock alteration and mineralization in fluid saturated porous rock masses. In particular, we explore the significance of production/annihilation terms in the mass balance equations and the dependence of the spatial patterns of rock alteration upon the ratio of the roll over time of large scale convection cells to the relaxation time of the chemical reactions. Special concepts such as the gradient reaction criterion or rock alteration index (RAI) are discussed in light of the present, more general theory. In order to validate the finite element simulation, we derive an analytical solution for the rock alteration index of a benchmark problem on a two-dimensional rectangular domain. Since the geometry and boundary conditions of the benchmark problem can be easily and exactly modelled, the analytical solution is also useful for validating other numerical methods, such as the finite difference method and the boundary element method, when they are used to dear with this kind of problem. Finally, the potential of the theory is illustrated by means of finite element studies related to coupled flow problems in materially homogeneous and inhomogeneous porous rock masses. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Modelling dispersal behaviour on a fractal landscape

We use a spatially explicit population model to explore the population consequences of different habitat selection mechanisms on landscapes with fractal variation in habitat quality. We consider dispersal strategies ranging from random walks to perfect habitat selectors for two species of arboreal marsupial, the greater glider (Petauroides volans) and the mountain brushtail possum (Trichosurus caninus). In this model increasing habitat selection means individuals obtain higher quality territories, but experience increased mortality during dispersal. The net effect is that population sizes are smaller when individuals actively select habitat. We find positive relationships between habitat quality and population size can occur when individuals do not use information about the entire landscape when habitat quality is spatially autocorrelated. We also find that individual behaviour can mitigate the negative effects of spatial variation on population average survival and fecundity. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the large deformations in stratified media - the Cosserat continuum approach

Methods employing continuum approximation in describing the deformation of layered materials possess a clear advantage over explicit models, However, the conventional implicit models based on the theory of anisotropic continua suffers from certain difficulties associated with interface slip and internal instabilities. These difficulties can be remedied by considering the bending stiffness of the layers. This implies the introduction of moment (couple) stresses and internal rotations, which leads to a Cosserat-type theory. In the present model, the behaviour of the layered material is assumed to be linearly elastic; the interfaces are assumed to be elastic perfectly plastic. Conditions of slip or no slip at the interfaces are detected by a Coulomb criterion with tension cut off at zero normal stress. The theory is valid for large deformation analysis. The model is incorporated into the finite element program AFENA and validated against analytical solutions of elementary buckling problems in layered medium. A problem associated with buckling of the roof and the floor of a rectangular excavation in jointed rock mass under high horizontal in situ stresses is considered as the main application of the theory. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.