Liver transplantation for HCV-associated liver cirrhosis: Predictors of outcomes in a population with significant genotype 3 and 4 distribution

End-stage liver disease associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is now the leading indication for liver transplantation in adults. However, reinfection of the graft is universal. We aimed to determine predictors of outcome of HCV-Iiver transplant recipients in the Australian and New Zealand communities. The following variables were analysed: demographic factors, coexistent pathology at the time of transplantation, HCV genotype, and donor age. Outcomes measures were: 1. mortality; 2. development of HCV-related complications, which were stage 3 or 4 fibrosis, or mortality from HCV-related graft failure, or both. Between January 1989 and December 30, 1999, 182 patients were transplanted for HCV-associated cirrhosis. The median follow-up period was 4 years (range, 0 to 13 years). Genotype data were available on 157 patients. The distribution of genotypes among the 157 patients was as follows: 36 (23%) genotype la, 30 (19%) genotype 1b, 4 (9%) genotype 1, 17 (11%) genotype 2, 41 (26%) genotype 3a, and 16 (10%) genotype 4. Eight (5%) patients were HCV-polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-negative (but HCV-antibody positive). Donor age and genotype 4 were associated with an increased risk of retransplantation or death (P < .001 and.05, respectively). Meanwhile, donor age, genotype 4, and pretransplant excess alcohol were risk factors for the development of HCV-related complications (P = .004, .008, and .02, respectively). In contrast, patients with genotype 3a were less likely to develop HCV-related complications (P = .05). In a population of HCV liver transplant recipients with a heterogeneous genotype distribution, donor age, and genotype 4, were predictors of a worse outcome, whereas genotype 3 was associated with a more favorable outcome.

Australian and New Zealand practice in intensive care (ANZPIC II): Predictors of physician confidence to diagnose pneumonia and determine illness severity in ventilated patients

The manner in which elements of clinical history, physical examination and investigations influence subjectively assessed illness severity and outcome prediction is poorly understood. This study investigates the relationship between clinician and objectively assessed illness severity and the factors influencing clinician's diagnostic confidence and illness severity rating for ventilated patients with suspected pneumonia in the intensive care unit (ICU). A prospective study of fourteen ICUs included all ventilated admissions with a clinical diagnosis of pneumonia. Data collection included pneumonia type - community-acquired (CAP), hospital-acquired (HAP) and ventilator-associated (VAP), clinician determined illness severity (CDIS), diagnostic methods, clinical diagnostic confidence (CDC), microbiological isolates and antibiotic use. For 476 episodes of pneumonia (48% CAP, 24% HAP, 28% VAP), CDC was greatest for CAP (64% CAP, 50% HAP and 49% VAP, P < 0.01) or when pneumonia was considered life-threatening (84% high CDC, 13% medium CDC and 3% low CDC, P < 0.001). Life-threatening pneumonia was predicted by worsening gas exchange (OR 4.8, CI 95% 2.3-10.2, P < 0.001), clinical signs of consolidation (OR 2.0, CI 95% 1.2-3.2, P < 0.01) and the Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) Score (OR 1.1, CI 95% 1.1-1.2, P < 0.001). Diagnostic confidence increased with CDIS (OR 163, CI 95% 8.4-31.4, P < 0.001), definite pathogen isolation (OR 3.3, CI 95% 2.0-5.6) and clinical signs of consolidation (OR 2.1, CI 95% 1.3-3.3, P = 0.001). Although the CDIS, SOFA Score and the Simplified Acute Physiologic Score (SAPS II) were all associated with mortality, the SAPS II Score was the best predictor of mortality (P = 0.02). Diagnostic confidence for pneumonia is moderate but increases with more classical presentations. A small set of clinical parameters influence subjective assessment. Objective assessment using SAPS II Scoring is a better predictor of mortality.

Stem and crown dimensions as predictors of thinning responses in a crowded tropical rainforest plantation of Flindersia brayleyana F. Muell.

A 67-year-old plantation of Flindersia brayleyana F. Muell. in the wet tropics of north-cast Queensland had developed with minimal management. Before thinning, the stand had a canopy stem density of 770 stems ha(-1) of which 564 were F brayleyana, a stand basal area of 78 m(2) ha(-1), a mean stem diameter at breast height (dbh) of 36 cm, and a mean dbh increment of 5.2 mm year(-1) over the life of the plantation and 0.5 mm year I at the time of thinning. Sixty-three percent of the trees had crown ratios (crown diameter determined from foliage projected area: dbh) of less than 12. Thinning treatments removed 57% of the canopy stems and 45% of the stand basal area. Mean dbh increment over 2.5 years after thinning on basaltic soil was 5.8 +/- 0.3 mm year(-1), but for trees with crown ratio

Antibiotic therapy for Klebsiella pneumoniae bacteremia: Implications of production of extended-spectrum beta-lactamases

The prevalence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) production by Klebsiella pneumonia approaches 50% in some countries, with particularly high rates in eastern Europe and Latin America. No randomized trials have ever been performed on treatment of bacteremia due to ESBL-producing organisms; existing data comes only from retrospective, single-institution studies. In a prospective study of 455 consecutive episodes of Klebsiella pneumoniae bacteremia in 12 hospitals in 7 countries, 85 episodes were due to an ESBL-producing organism. Failure to use an antibiotic active against ESBL-producing K. pneumoniae was associated with extremely high mortality. Use of a carbapenem ( primarily imipenem) was associated with a significantly lower 14-day mortality than was use of other antibiotics active in vitro. Multivariate analysis including other predictors of mortality showed that use of a carbapenem during the 5-day period after onset of bacteremia due to an ESBL-producing organism was independently associated with lower mortality. Antibiotic choice is particularly important in seriously ill patients with infections due to ESBL-producing K. pneumoniae.

Prospective study of individual, social, and environmental predictors of physical activity: women's leisure running

Background: Understanding and influencing the determinants of physical activity is an important public health challenge. We used prospective data to examine the influence of individual, social, and environmental factors on physical activity behaviour, using regular running as the behavioural model. Methods: Over 500 middle-aged women completed two consecutive questionnaires in 2000 and 2002. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine factors predicting adoption of and regression from regular leisure-time running during the follow-up. Results: Women who frequently used behavioural change skills were more likely to adopt regular running (OR=4.0, CI=1.7-9.5). There was an interaction between the enjoyment of running and family support: those who rated enjoyment of running high and reported high family support were less likely to adopt running (OR= 0.2, CI = 0.1-0.5). Women who reported infrequent use of motives were more likely (OR = 3.3, CI = 1.6-6.9) to regress from regular running. There was an interaction between perceived health and the neighbourhood environment: those who perceived themselves to be in poor health and had an unattractive neighbourhood were more likely (OR = 2.7, CI = 0.9-8.3) to regress from regular running. Conclusions: Behavioural skills and enjoyment may be of particular importance for the adoption of regular activity; social support and an aesthetically attractive neighbourhood are likely to have a key role in encouraging maintenance. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of responsiveness to physiotherapy management of cervicogenic headache

A recent randomized controlled trial tested the effectiveness of therapeutic exercise and manipulative therapy on 200 subjects with cervicogenic headache. Although treatments were efficacious, 25% of patients did not achieve a clinically acceptable outcome - 50% reduction in headache frequency This study aimed to identify predictors from variables in subjects' demographics and headache history which might identify those who did or did not achieve a 50-79% or 80-100% reduction in headache immediately after the active treatments and 12 months postintervention. The results revealed no consistent pattern of predictors, although the absence of light-headedness indicated higher odds of achieving either a 50-79% [odds ratio (OR) = 5.45) or 80-100% (OR = 5.7) reduction in headache frequency in the long term. Headaches of at least moderate intensity, the patient's age and chronicity of headache did not mitigate against a successful outcome from physiotherapy intervention.