Relative predictive value of intraventricular dysynchrony in determining long-term outcome in patients with known or suspected coronary disease

Improvement of intra-ventricular dysynchrony (IVD) in pts undergoing bi-ventricular pacing is associated with clinical improvementbut little isknownabout the relationship between IVD and prognosis.We sought whether IVD influences long-term outcome in pts with known or suspected coronary disease (CAD). Tissue Doppler imaging was performed in 184 pts (aged 61±10 years, 67% male) prior to dobutamine echo. From velocity curves the interval between QRS onset and max systolic velocity (Ts) was measured in basal septal, lateral, inferior and anterior segments. The maximal difference in Ts between segments (TsMax) was used as a measure of IVD. The standard deviation (TsSD) between all segments and the septal-lateral difference (TsSL) were also calculated. Pts were followed up for a median interval of 5 years and a Cox model used for survival analysis. The medianwall motion index (WMI) was 1.3 (IQR 1.0–1.8) at rest and 1.4 (IQR 1.3–1.9) at stress. The table shows IVD parameters. Forty-one deaths occurred during follow-up. Pts who died during follow-up, compared to survivors, showed greater IVD. WMI at rest (p = 0.03) and peak stress (p = 0.02), TsSD (p = 0.06), TsSL (p = 0.02) and TsMax (p = 0.05) but not QRS width were univariate predictors of mortality. TsSL was the only independent predictor of death (p = 0.01). Therefore, IVD is common in pts with known or suspected CAD. Pts with more IVD have reduced long-term survival, independent of WMI.

The prognostic value of a nomogram for exercise capacity in women

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have demonstrated that exercise capacity is an independent predictor of mortality in women. Normative values of exercise capacity for age in women have not been well established. Our objectives were to construct a nomogram to permit determination of predicted exercise capacity for age in women and to assess the predictive value of the nomogram with respect to survival. METHODS: A total of 5721 asymptomatic women underwent a symptom-limited, maximal stress test. Exercise capacity was measured in metabolic equivalents (MET). Linear regression was used to estimate the mean MET achieved for age. A nomogram was established to allow the percentage of predicted exercise capacity to be estimated on the basis of age and the exercise capacity achieved. The nomogram was then used to determine the percentage of predicted exercise capacity for both the original cohort and a referral population of 4471 women with cardiovascular symptoms who underwent a symptom-limited stress test. Survival data were obtained for both cohorts, and Cox survival analysis was used to estimate the rates of death from any cause and from cardiac causes in each group. RESULTS: The linear regression equation for predicted exercise capacity (in MET) on the basis of age in the cohort of asymptomatic women was as follows: predicted MET = 14.7 - (0.13 x age). The risk of death among asymptomatic women whose exercise capacity was less than 85 percent of the predicted value for age was twice that among women whose exercise capacity was at least 85 percent of the age-predicted value (P<0.001). Results were similar in the cohort of symptomatic women. CONCLUSIONS: We have established a nomogram for predicted exercise capacity on the basis of age that is predictive of survival among both asymptomatic and symptomatic women. These findings could be incorporated into the interpretation of exercise stress tests, providing additional prognostic information for risk stratification.

Twice-weekly, directly observed treatment for HIV-infected and uninfected tuberculosis patients: cohort study in rural South Africa

Objective: To determine the effectiveness of twice-weekly directly observed therapy (DOT) for tuberculosis (TB) in HIV-infected and uninfected patients, irrespective of their previous treatment history. Also to determine the predictive value of 2-3 month smears on treatment outcome. Methods: Four hundred and sixteen new and 113 previously treated adults with culture positive pulmonary TB (58% HIV infected, 9% combined drug resistance) in Hlabisa, South Africa. Daily isoniazid (H), rifampicin (R), pyrazinamide (Z) and ethambutol (E) given in hospital (median 17 days), followed by HRZE twice a week to 2 months and HR twice a week to 6 months in the community. Results: Outcomes at 6 months among the 416 new patients were: transferred out 2%; interrupted treatment 17%; completed treatment 3%; failure 2%; and cured 71%. Outcomes were similar among HIV-infected and uninfected patients except for death (6 versus 2%; P = 0.03). Cure was frequent among adherent HIV-infected (97%; 95% CI 94-99%) and uninfected (96%; 95% CI 92-99%) new patients. Outcomes were similar among previously treated and new patients, except for death (11 versus 4%; P = 0.01), and cure among adherent previously treated patients 97% (95% CI 92-99%) was high. Smear results at 2 months did not predict the final outcome. Conclusion: A twice-weekly rifampicin-containing drug regimen given under DOT cures most adherent patients irrespective of HIV status and previous treatment history. The 2 month smear may be safely omitted. Relapse rates need to be determined, and an improved system of keeping treatment interrupters on therapy is needed. Simplified TB treatment may aid implementation of the DOTS strategy in settings with high TB caseloads secondary to the HIV epidemic. (C) 1999 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Trial-of-antibiotic algorithm for the diagnosis of tuberculosis in a district hospital in a developing country with high HIV prevalence

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a diagnostic algorithm for pulmonary tuberculosis based on smear microscopy and objective response to trial of antibiotics. SETTING: Adult medical wards, Hlabisa Hospital, South Africa, 1996-1997. METHODS: Adults with chronic chest symptoms and abnormal chest X-ray had sputum examined for Ziehl-Neelsen stained acid-fast bacilli by light microscopy. Those with negative smears were treated with amoxycillin for 5 days and assessed. Those who had not improved were treated with erythromycin for 5 days and reassessed. Response was compared with mycobacterial culture. RESULTS: Of 280 suspects who completed the diagnostic pathway, 160 (57%) had a positive smear, 46 (17%) responded to amoxycillin, 34 (12%) responded to erythromycin and 40 (14%) were treated as smear-negative tuberculosis. The sensitivity (89%) and specificity (84%) of the full algorithm for culture-positive tuberculosis were high. However, 11 patients (positive predictive value [PPV] 95%) were incorrectly diagnosed with tuberculosis, and 24 cases of tuberculosis (negative predictive value [NPV] 70%) were not identified. NPV improved to 75% when anaemia was included as a predictor. Algorithm performance was independent of human immunodeficiency virus status. CONCLUSION: Sputum smear microscopy plus trial of antibiotic algorithm among a selected group of tuberculosis suspects may increase diagnostic accuracy in district hospitals in developing countries.

A comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease in the Asia Pacific Region

PURPOSE: Many guidelines advocate measurement of total or low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and triglycerides (TG) to determine treatment recommendations for preventing coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This analysis is a comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Hazard ratios for coronary and cardiovascular deaths by fourths of total cholesterol (TC), LDL, HDL, TG, non-HDL, TC/HDL, and TG/HDL values, and for a one standard deviation change in these variables, were derived in an individual participant data meta-analysis of 32 cohort studies conducted in the Asia-Pacific region. The predictive value of each lipid variable was assessed using the likelihood ratio statistic. RESULTS: Adjusting for confounders and regression dilution, each lipid variable had a positive (negative for HDL) log-linear association with fatal CHD and CVD. Individuals in the highest fourth of each lipid variable had approximately twice the risk of CHD compared with those with lowest levels. TG and HDL were each better predictors of CHD and CVD risk compared with TC alone, with test statistics similar to TC/HDL and TG/HDL ratios. Calculated LDL was a relatively poor predictor. CONCLUSIONS: While LDL reduction remains the main target of intervention for lipid-lowering, these data support the potential use of TG or lipid ratios for CHD risk prediction. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A parent-completed developmental questionnaire: Follow up of ex-premature infants

Objective: premature infants are at increased risk of developmental disability. Early identification of problems allows intervention to ameliorate or attenuate problems. A reliable screening tool allows triage of children in this high-risk population by identifying those unlikely to need full developmental assessment. To explore the test characteristics of an established parent-completed developmental assessment questionnaire 'Ages and Stages Questionnaire' (ASQ) in follow up of an Australian population of premature infants. Methodology: One hundred and sixty-seven children born prematurely with corrected ages 12- to 48-months attending the Growth and Development Clinic at the Mater Children's Hospital in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia; 136 questionnaires 'ASQ' were returned completed (81%) and were compared to formal psychometric assessment (Griffith Mental Development Scales for 12- and 24-months, Bayley Mental Development Intelligence Scale for 18-months, McCarthy General Cognitive Intelligence Scale for 18-months). Developmental delay was considered to be present if any of the above psychometric assessments fell below 1.0 standard deviations (SD). The ASQ cut-off used was 2.0 SD (US data derived means and SD). Results: Aggregate results for all age groups comparing ASQ to psychometric assessments as 'gold standards' found the ASQ to have the following test characteristics: sensitivity (90%); specificity (77%); positive predictive value (40%); negative predictive value (98%): % over-referred (20%); % under-referred (1%); % agreement (79%). likelihood ratio for children failing the ASQ was 3.8 and for passing the ASQ was 0.13. Twenty-one children with known disabilities were included in the study and in 14 of these, the ASQ overall score agreed with the psychometric assessment (67%). Conclusion: The high negative predictive value of the ASQ supports its use as a screening tool for cognitive and motor delays in the follow up of ex-premature infants. This would need to be combined with other strategies as part of a comprehensive follow up program for ex-premature infants.

Alcoholic liver disease: A clinical series in an Australian private practice

Background and Aim: The published literature on alcoholic liver disease (ALD) in Australia lacks a large clinical series out of private practice as distinct from hospital-based hepatology referral units. This series describes the presentation and clinical features of ALD in a consecutive series out of metropolitan private practice in Australia. Methods: A retrospective descriptive study by case-note review found 297 cases of ALD at a Brisbane practice over 20 years. The main outcome measures were: clinical features and stage at presentation, reasons for referral, and the predictive value of aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio. Results: Most patients (57.9%) had no symptoms of liver disease and 29 patients (9.8%) had neither symptoms nor signs. Cirrhosis was found in 41% of patients and hepatitis-fibrosis was found in 26% of patients. The male to female (M: F) ratio was 4.7:1. The AST/ALT ratio was not reliably predictive of ALD stage. The average reported daily alcohol intake was 131 g. Females drank less on average and presented a more vigorous clinical picture. Conclusions: This series presents the spectrum of ALD in a metropolitan Australian private practice. Many patients are asymptomatic on presentation. All heavy drinkers should be targeted for early investigation without waiting for volunteered symptoms or abnormal physical signs. The male to female ratio in ALD is higher than hitherto reported. The AST/ALT ratio is not generally applicable in the staging of ALD. The differences from hospital series data suggest the demography and epidemiology of ALD in Australia are incomplete, and further study is warranted. (C) 2001 Blackwell Science Asia Pty Ltd.

Immunohistochemistry versus microsatellite instability testing in phenotyping colorectal tumors

Purpose: To compare microsatellite instability (MSI) testing with immunohistochemical (IHC) detection of hMLH1 and hMSH2 in colorectal cancer. Patients and Methods: Colorectal cancers from 1, 144 patients were assessed for DNA mismatch repair deficiency by two methods: MSI testing and IHC detection of hMLH1 and hMSH2 gene products. High-frequency MSI (MSI-H) was defined as more than 30% instability of at least five markers; low-level MSI (MSI-L) was defined as 1% to 29% of loci unstable. Results: Of 1, 144 tumors tested, 818 showed intact expression of hMLH1 and hMSH2. Of these, 680 were microsatellite stable (MSS), 27 were MSI-H, and 111 were MSI-L. In all, 228 tumors showed absence of hMLH1 expression and 98 showed absence of hMSH2 expression: all were MSI-H. Conclusion: IHC in colorectal tumors for protein products hMLH1 and hMSH2 provides a rapid, cost-effective, sensitive (92.3%), and extremely specific (100%) method for screening for DNA mismatch repair defects. The predictive value of normal IHC for an MSS/MSI-L phenotype was 96.7%, and the predictive value of abnormal IHC was 100% for an MSI-H phenotype. Testing strategies must take into account acceptability of missing some cases of MSI-H tumors if only IHC is performed. (C) 2002 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Relationships between nutrition screening checklists and the health and well-being of older Australian women

Objectives: To examine associations between nutrition screening checklists and the health of older women. Design: Cross-sectional postal survey including measures of health and health service utilisation, as well as the Australian Nutrition Screening Initiative (ANSI), adapted from the Nutrition Screening Initiative (NSI). Setting: Australia, 1996. Subjects: In total, 12 939 women aged 70-75 years randomly selected as part of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Results: Responses to individual items in the ANSI checklist, and ANSI and NSI scores, were associated with measures of health and health service utilisation. Women with high ANSI and NSI scores had poorer physical and mental health, higher health care utilisation and were less likely to be in the acceptable weight range. The performance of an unweighted score (TSI) was also examined and showed similar results. Whereas ANSI classified 30% of the women as 'high-risk', only 13% and 12% were classified as 'high-risk' by the NSI and TSI, respectively. However, for identifying women with body mass index outside the acceptable range, sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values for all of these checklists were less than 60%. Conclusions: Higher scores on both the ANSI and NSI are associated with poorer health. The simpler unweighted method of scoring the ANSI (TSI) showed better discrimination for the identification of 'at risk' women than the weighted ANSI method. The predictive value of individual items and the checklist scores need to be examined longitudinally.

Consensus neuropathological diagnosis of common dementia syndromes: testing and standardising the use of multiple diagnostic criteria

The aim of this study was to assess the variation between neuropathologists in the diagnosis of common dementia syndromes when multiple published protocols are applied. Fourteen out of 18 Australian neuropathologists participated in diagnosing 20 cases (16 cases of dementia, 4 age-matched controls) using consensus diagnostic methods. Diagnostic criteria, clinical synopses and slides from multiple brain regions were sent to participants who were asked for case diagnoses. Diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, accuracy and variability were determined using percentage agreement and kappa statistics. Using CERAD criteria, there was a high inter-rater agreement for cases with probable and definite Alzheimer's disease but low agreement for cases with possible Alzheimer's disease. Braak staging and the application of criteria for dementia with Lewy bodies also resulted in high inter-rater agreement. There was poor agreement for the diagnosis of frontotemporal dementia and for identifying small vessel disease. Participants rarely diagnosed more than one disease in any case. To improve efficiency when applying multiple diagnostic criteria, several simplifications were proposed and tested on 5 of the original 210 cases. Inter-rater reliability for the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease and dementia with Lewy bodies significantly improved. Further development of simple and accurate methods to identify small vessel lesions and diagnose frontotemporal dementia is warranted.

Post-discharge surveillance: can patients reliably diagnose surgical wound infections?

Post-discharge surgical wound infection surveillance is an important part of many infection control programs. It is frequently undertaken by patient self-assessment, prompted either by a telephone or postal questionnaire. To assess the reliability of this method, 290 patients were followed for six weeks post-operatively. Their wounds were photographed and also covertly assessed for signs of infection by two experienced infection control nurses (ICNs). Patients also responded to a postal questionnaire seeking evidence of infection at both week four and week six post-surgery. Correlation between the patient's assessment of their wound and the ICNs diagnosis was poor (r = 0. 37) with a low positive predictive value (28.7%), although negative predictive value was high (98.2%). Assessment of photos for signs of infection by two experienced clinicians also correlated poorly with the ICNs diagnosis of infection (r = 0.54). The patient's recall of prescription of an antibiotic by their general practitioner (GP) for wound infection during the postoperative period correlated best with the ICNs diagnosis (r = 0.76). This latter measure, particularly when confirmed by the GP in those patients reporting an infection, appears to provide the most valid and resource efficient marker of post-discharge surgical wound infection.

The use of a change in gentamicin clearance as an early predictor of gentamicin-induced nephrotoxicity

A retrospective review was undertaken in 744 patients who were dose-individualized with gentamicin once daily to evaluate a change in gentamicin clearance as a potential predictor of nephrotoxicity. The definition of nephrotoxicity was chosen to be a change in creatinine clearance greater than 20%. Similarly, a change in gentamicin clearance of greater than 20% was also considered a possible index of nephrotoxicity. Four criteria were developed to assess the usefulness of gentamicin clearance as a predictor of nephrotoxicity. Following the application of the inclusion/exclusion criteria, 132 patients were available for the analysis. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were assessed for each of the criteria. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were produced to determine if an optimum value in the change of gentamicin clearance could be found to maximize sensitivity and specificity. The overall incidence of nephrotoxicity based on a decrease in creatinine clearance by 20% or more was 3.8%. Women were overrepresented in the nephrotoxic group [71.4% versus 40.1% (P = 0.0025)]. Patients with nephrotoxicity had statistically longer treatment periods, increased cumulative dose, and more dosing predictions (P < 0.05 in each case). The sensitivity of the criteria ranged from 43 to 46%, and specificity ranged from 93 to 99%. The positive and negative predictive values ranged from 63 to 94% and 86 to 89%, respectively. In those patients in whom nephrotoxicity was predicted from a change in gentamicin clearance, this change occurred on average 3 days before the change in creatinine clearance (P < 0.05). A change in gentamicin clearance to predict nephrotoxicity may be a useful addition to current monitoring methods, although it is not the complete answer.

Use of umbilical artery Doppler velocimetry in the monitoring of pregnancy in women with pre-existing diabetes

Background: The usefulness of umbilical artery Doppler velocimetry for the monitoring of diabetic pregnancies is controversial. The aim of the present study was to assess whether umbilical artery Doppler velocity waveform analysis can predict adverse perinatal outcomes for pregnancies complicated by pre-existing diabetes mellitus. Methods: All diabetic pregnancies (type 1 and 2) delivered at Mater Mothers' Hospital, Queensland, between 1 January 1995 and 31 December 1999 were included. All pregnant diabetic women were monitored with umbilical artery Doppler velocimetry at 28, 32, 36, and 38 weeks' gestation. Adverse perinatal outcome was defined as pregnancies with one or more of the following: small-for-gestational age, Caesarean section for non-reassuring cardiotocography, fetal acidaemia at delivery, 1-min Apgar of 3 or less, 5-min Apgar of less than 7, hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy or perinatal death. Abnormal umbilical artery Doppler velocimetry was defined as a pulsatility index of 95th centile or higher for gestation. Results: One hundred and four pregnancies in women with pre-existing diabetes had umbilical arterial Doppler studies carried out during the study period. Twenty-three pregnancies (22.1%) had an elevated pulsatility index. If the scans were carried out within 2 weeks of delivery, 71% of pregnancies with abnormal umbilical Doppler had adverse outcomes (P < 0.01; likelihood ratio, 4.2). However, the sensitivity was 35%; specificity was 94%; positive predictive value was 80%; and negative predictive value was 68%. Only 30% of women with adverse perinatal outcomes had abnormal umbilical arterial Doppler flow. Conclusion: Umbilical artery Doppler velocimetry is not a good predictor of adverse perinatal outcomes in diabetic pregnancies.

A PCR method for the identification of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) from screening swabs

Aim: The aim of this study was to assess the discriminatory power and potential turn around time ( TAT) of a PCR-based method for the detection of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) from screening swabs. Methods: Screening swabs were examined using the current laboratory protocol of direct culture on mannitol salt agar supplemented with oxacillin (MSAO-direct). The PCR method involved pre-incubation in broth for 4 hours followed by a multiplex PCR with primers directed to mecA and nuc genes of MRSA. The reference standard was determined by pre-incubation in broth for 4 hours followed by culture on MSAO (MSAO-broth). Results: A total of 256 swabs was analysed. The rates of detection of MRSA using MSAO-direct, MSAO-broth and PCR were 10.2, 13.3 and 10.2%, respectively. For PCR, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values were 66.7% (95% CI 51.9 - 83.3%), 98.6% ( 95% CI 97.1 - 100%), 84.6% ( 95% CI 76.2 - 100%) and 95.2% ( 95% CI 92.4 - 98.0%), respectively, and these results were almost identical to those obtained from MSAO-direct. The agreement between MSAO-direct and PCR was 61.5% ( 95% CI 42.8 - 80.2%) for positive results, 95.6% ( 95% CI 93.0 - 98.2%) for negative results and overall was 92.2% ( 95% CI 88.9 - 95.5%). Conclusions: ( 1) The discriminatory power of PCR and MSAO-direct is similar but the level of agreement, especially for true positive results, is low. ( 2) The potential TAT for the PCR method provides a marked advantage over conventional methods. ( 3) Further modifications to the PCR method such as increased broth incubation time, use of selective broth and adaptation to real-time PCR may lead to improvement in sensitivity and TAT.