On the multicomponent polynomial solution models

The present study addresses the problem of predicting the properties of multicomponent systems from those of corresponding binary systems. Two types of multicomponent polynomial models have been analysed. A probabilistic interpretation of the parameters of the Polynomial model, which explicitly relates them with the Gibbs free energies of the generalised quasichemical reactions, is proposed. The presented treatment provides a theoretical justification for such parameters. A methodology of estimating the ternary interaction parameter from the binary ones is presented. The methodology provides a way in which the power series multicomponent models, where no projection is required, could be incorporated into the Calphad approach.

The effect of introducing radiographer reporting on the availability of reports for Accident and Emergency and General Practitioner examinations: a time-series analysis

This study explores whether the introduction of selectively trained radiographers reporting Accident and Emergency (A&E) X-ray examinations or the appendicular skeleton affected the availability of reports for A&E and General Practitioner (GP) examinations at it typical district general hospital. This was achieved by analysing monthly data on A&E and GP examinations for 1993 1997 using structural time-series models. Parameters to capture stochastic seasonal effects and stochastic time trends were included ill the models. The main outcome measures were changes in the number, proportion and timeliness of A&E and GP examinations reported. Radiographer reporting X-ray examinations requested by A&E was associated with it 12% (p = 0.050) increase in the number of A&E examinations reported and it 37% (p

Structural change in macroeconomic time series: A complex systems perspective

We demonstrate that the process of generating smooth transitions Call be viewed as a natural result of the filtering operations implied in the generation of discrete-time series observations from the sampling of data from an underlying continuous time process that has undergone a process of structural change. In order to focus discussion, we utilize the problem of estimating the location of abrupt shifts in some simple time series models. This approach will permit its to address salient issues relating to distortions induced by the inherent aggregation associated with discrete-time sampling of continuous time processes experiencing structural change, We also address the issue of how time irreversible structures may be generated within the smooth transition processes. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adult mental health needs and expenditure in Australia

Background Relatively little international work has examined whether mental health resource allocation matches need. This study aimed to determine whether adult mental health resources in Australia are being distributed equitably. Method Individual measures of need were extrapolated to Australian Areas, and Area-based proxies of need were considered. Particular attention was paid to the prevalence of mental health problems, since this is arguably the most objective measure of need. The extent to which these measures predicted public sector, private sector and total adult mental health expenditure at an Area level was examined. Results In the public sector, 41.6% of expenditure variation was explained by the prevalence of affective disorders, personality disorders, cognitive impairment and psychosis, as well as the Area's level of economic resources and State/Territory effects. In the private sector, 72.4% of expenditure variation was explained by service use and State/Territory effects (with an alternative model incorporating service use and State/Territory supply of private psychiatrists explaining 69.4% of expenditure variation). A relatively high proportion (58.7%) of total expenditure variation could be explained by service utilisation and State/Territory effects. Conclusions For services to be delivered equitably, the majority of variation in expenditure would have to be accounted for by appropriate measures of need. The best model for public sector expenditure included an appropriate measure of need but had relatively poor explanatory power. The models for private sector and total expenditure had greater explanatory power, but relied on less appropriate measures of need. It is concluded that mental health services in Australia are not yet being delivered equitably.

Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries

The purpose of this work was to model lung cancer mortality as a function of past exposure to tobacco and to forecast age-sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates. A 3-factor age-period-cohort (APC) model, in which the period variable is replaced by the product of average tar content and adult tobacco consumption per capita, was estimated for the US, UK, Canada and Australia by the maximum likelihood method. Age- and sex-specific tobacco consumption was estimated from historical data on smoking prevalence and total tobacco consumption. Lung cancer mortality was derived from vital registration records. Future tobacco consumption, tar content and the cohort parameter were projected by autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) estimation. The optimal exposure variable was found to be the product of average tar content and adult cigarette consumption per capita, lagged for 2530 years for both males and females in all 4 countries. The coefficient of the product of average tar content and tobacco consumption per capita differs by age and sex. In all models, there was a statistically significant difference in the coefficient of the period variable by sex. In all countries, male age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates peaked in the 1980s and declined thereafter. Female mortality rates are projected to peak in the first decade of this century. The multiplicative models of age, tobacco exposure and cohort fit the observed data between 1950 and 1999 reasonably well, and time-series models yield plausible past trends of relevant variables. Despite a significant reduction in tobacco consumption and average tar content of cigarettes sold over the past few decades, the effect on lung cancer mortality is affected by the time lag between exposure and established disease. As a result, the burden of lung cancer among females is only just reaching, or soon will reach, its peak but has been declining for I to 2 decades in men. Future sex differences in lung cancer mortality are likely to be greater in North America than Australia and the UK due to differences in exposure patterns between the sexes. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The performance of the maximum ratio combining method in correlated Rician-fading channels for antenna-diversity signal combining

The performance of the maximum ratio combining method for the combining of antenna-diversity signals in correlated Rician-fading channels is rigorously studied. The distribution function of the normalized signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is expanded in terms of a power series and calculated numerically. This power series can easily take into account the signal correlations and antenna gains and can be applied to any number of receiving antennas. An application of the method to dual-antenna diversity systems produces useful distribution curves for the normalized SNR which can be used to find the diversity gain. It is revealed that signal correlation in Rician-fading channels helps to increase the diversity gain rather than to decrease it as in the Rayleigh fading channels. It is also shown that with a relative strong direct signal component, the diversity gain can be much higher than that without a direct signal component.

On the estimation and comparison of short-rate models using the generalised method of moments

Subsequent to the influential paper of [Chan, K.C., Karolyi, G.A., Longstaff, F.A., Sanders, A.B., 1992. An empirical comparison of alternative models of the short-term interest rate. Journal of Finance 47, 1209-1227], the generalised method of moments (GMM) has been a popular technique for estimation and inference relating to continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate. GMM has been widely employed to estimate model parameters and to assess the goodness-of-fit of competing short-rate specifications. The current paper conducts a series of simulation experiments to document the bias and precision of GMM estimates of short-rate parameters, as well as the size and power of [Hansen, L.P., 1982. Large sample properties of generalised method of moments estimators. Econometrica 50, 1029-1054], J-test of over-identifying restrictions. While the J-test appears to have appropriate size and good power in sample sizes commonly encountered in the short-rate literature, GMM estimates of the speed of mean reversion are shown to be severely biased. Consequently, it is dangerous to draw strong conclusions about the strength of mean reversion using GMM. In contrast, the parameter capturing the levels effect, which is important in differentiating between competing short-rate specifications, is estimated with little bias. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Zero-non-zero patterned vector error correction modeling for I(2) cointegrated time series with applications in testing PPP and stock market relationships

Vector error-correction models (VECMs) have become increasingly important in their application to financial markets. Standard full-order VECM models assume non-zero entries in all their coefficient matrices. However, applications of VECM models to financial market data have revealed that zero entries are often a necessary part of efficient modelling. In such cases, the use of full-order VECM models may lead to incorrect inferences. Specifically, if indirect causality or Granger non-causality exists among the variables, the use of over-parameterised full-order VECM models may weaken the power of statistical inference. In this paper, it is argued that the zero–non-zero (ZNZ) patterned VECM is a more straightforward and effective means of testing for both indirect causality and Granger non-causality. For a ZNZ patterned VECM framework for time series of integrated order two, we provide a new algorithm to select cointegrating and loading vectors that can contain zero entries. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the usefulness of the algorithm in tests of purchasing power parity and a three-variable system involving the stock market.