Some considerations on the design of population pharmacokinetic studies

The goal of this manuscript is to introduce a framework for consideration of designs for population pharmacokinetic orpharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic studies. A standard one compartment pharmacokinetic model with first-order input and elimination is considered. A series of theoretical designs are considered that explore the influence of optimizing the allocation of sampling times, allocating patients to elementary designs, consideration of sparse sampling and unbalanced designs and also the influence of single vs. multiple dose designs. It was found that what appears to be relatively sparse sampling (less blood samples per patient than the number of fixed effects parameters to estimate) can also be highly informative. Overall, it is evident that exploring the population design space can yield many parsimonious designs that are efficient for parameter estimation and that may not otherwise have been considered without the aid of optimal design theory.

The prevalence and impact of overweight and obesity in an Australian obstetric population

Objective: To assess the prevalence and impact of overweight and obesity in an Australian obstetric population. Design, setting and participants: The Mater Mother's Hospital (MMH), South Brisbane, is an urban tertiary referral maternity hospital. We reviewed data for the 18401 women who were booked for antenatal care at the MMH, delivered between January 1998 and December 2002, and had a singleton pregnancy. Of those women, 14 230 had an estimated pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) noted in their record; 2978 women with BMI 40 kg/m(2)). Main outcome measures: Prevalence of overweight and obesity in an obstetric population; maternal, peripartum and neonatal outcomes associated with raised BMI. Results: Of the 14230 women, 6443 (45%) were of normal weight, and 4809 (34%) were overweight, obese or morbidly obese. Overweight, obese and morbidly obese women were at increased risk of adverse outcomes (figures represent adjusted odds ratio [AOR] [95% Cl]): hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (overweight 1.74 [1.45-2.15], obese 3.00 [2.40-3.74], morbidly obese 4.87 [3.27-7.24]); gestational diabetes (overweight 1.78 [1.25-2.52], obese 2.95 [2.05-4.25], morbidly obese 7.44 [4.42-12.54]); hospital admission longer than 5 days (overweight 1.36 [1.13-1.63], obese 1.49 [1.21-1.86], morbidly obese 3.18 [2.19-4.61]); and caesarean section (overweight 1.50 [1.36-1.66], obese 2.02 [1.79-2.29], morbidly obese 2.54 [1.94-3.321). Neonates born to obese and morbidly obese women had an increased risk of birth defects (obese 1.58 (1.02-2.46], morbidly obese 3.41 [1.67-6.94]); and hypoglycaemia (obese 2.57 [1.39-4.78], morbidly obese 7.14 [3.04-16.74]). Neonates born to morbidly obese women were at increased risk of admission to intensive care (2.77 [1.81-4.25]); premature delivery (< 34 weeks' gestation) (2.13 [1.13-4.01]); and jaundice (1.44 [1.09-1.89]). Conclusions: Overweight and obesity are common in pregnant women. Increasing BMI is associated with maternal and neonatal outcomes that may increase the costs of obstetric care. To assist in planning health service delivery, we believe that BMI should be routinely recorded on perinatal data collection sheets

Substance-use disorders and psychological distress among police arrestees

Objectives: To determine the 12-month prevalence of substance-use disorders and psychological morbidity in an Australian arrestee population. Design: Cross-sectional descriptive study. Participants and setting: 288 police arrestees at the Brisbane City Police Watch House in February and March 2001. Outcome measures: Prevalence of drug and alcohol disorders; psychological caseness according to the 28-item General Health Questionnaire; demographics and index offences. Results: 86% of the arrestees had at least one substance-use disorder; most had multiple disorders. More than 80% were substance dependent. The predominant substances used were amphetamines, marijuana, opioids and alcohol. 82% of the men and 94% of the women were suffering significant psychological distress. Conclusions: Development of services for detoxification and treatment of this population is a pressing need. The findings provide crucial information for the planning and implementation of drug courts and court diversion systems.

Body composition in children in remission from acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Background: Changes in body composition are commonly reported in pediatric survivors of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). However, the effect of ALL and of its treatment on body composition in children in remission from ALL has not been fully examined with the use of a reference method. Objectives: We aimed to determine the body composition and composition of fat-free mass (FFM) in children in remission from ALL. We also aimed to compare the effects that prednisolone and dexamethasone had on the body composition of an ALL survivor population. Design: This cross-sectional study measured height, weight, body volume, total body water, and bone mineral content in 24 children in remission from ALL and 24 age-matched, healthy control subjects. Body composition and FFM composition were evaluated by using the 4-component model. Results: The mean body mass index and fat mass index were significantly (P = 0.05 for both) higher in the ALL survivors than in age-matched control subjects. The composition of the FFM in the 2 treatment groups was not observed to differ significantly. Examination of the composition of FFM made it evident that children in remission from ALL had both significantly greater hydration (P = 0.001) and lower density (P = 0.0001) of FFM than did the control children. Conclusions: Children in remission from ALL may develop excess body fat. To measure body composition accurately in an ALL population, the high hydration and low density of FFM in this population should be taken into consideration.

Optimal design for model discrimination and parameter estimation for itraconazole population pharmacokinetics in cystic fibrosis patients

Optimal sampling times are found for a study in which one of the primary purposes is to develop a model of the pharmacokinetics of itraconazole in patients with cystic fibrosis for both capsule and solution doses. The optimal design is expected to produce reliable estimates of population parameters for two different structural PK models. Data collected at these sampling times are also expected to provide the researchers with sufficient information to reasonably discriminate between the two competing structural models.

Prospective evaluation of a D-optimal designed population pharmacokinetic study

Recently, methods for computing D-optimal designs for population pharmacokinetic studies have become available. However there are few publications that have prospectively evaluated the benefits of D-optimality in population or single-subject settings. This study compared a population optimal design with an empirical design for estimating the base pharmacokinetic model for enoxaparin in a stratified randomized setting. The population pharmacokinetic D-optimal design for enoxaparin was estimated using the PFIM function (MATLAB version 6.0.0.88). The optimal design was based on a one-compartment model with lognormal between subject variability and proportional residual variability and consisted of a single design with three sampling windows (0-30 min, 1.5-5 hr and 11 - 12 hr post-dose) for all patients. The empirical design consisted of three sample time windows per patient from a total of nine windows that collectively represented the entire dose interval. Each patient was assigned to have one blood sample taken from three different windows. Windows for blood sampling times were also provided for the optimal design. Ninety six patients were recruited into the study who were currently receiving enoxaparin therapy. Patients were randomly assigned to either the optimal or empirical sampling design, stratified for body mass index. The exact times of blood samples and doses were recorded. Analysis was undertaken using NONMEM (version 5). The empirical design supported a one compartment linear model with additive residual error, while the optimal design supported a two compartment linear model with additive residual error as did the model derived from the full data set. A posterior predictive check was performed where the models arising from the empirical and optimal designs were used to predict into the full data set. This revealed the optimal'' design derived model was superior to the empirical design model in terms of precision and was similar to the model developed from the full dataset. This study suggests optimal design techniques may be useful, even when the optimized design was based on a model that was misspecified in terms of the structural and statistical models and when the implementation of the optimal designed study deviated from the nominal design.

Divergent environments and population bottlenecks fail to generate premating isolation in Drosophila pseudoobscura

While the feasibility of bottleneck-induced speciation is in doubt, population bottlenecks may still affect the speciation process by interacting with divergent selection. To explore this possibility, I conducted a laboratory speciation experiment using Drosophila pseudoobscura involving 78 replicate populations assigned in a two-way factorial design to both bottleneck (present vs. absent) and environment (ancestral vs. novel) treatments. Populations independently evolved under these treatments and were then tested for assortative mating and male mating success against their common ancestor. Bottlenecks alone did not generate any premating isolation, despite an experimental design that was conducive to bottleneck-induced speciation. Premating isolation also did not evolve in the novel environment treatment, neither in the presence nor absence of bottlenecks. However, male mating success was significantly reduced in the novel environment treatment, both as a plastic response to this environment and as a result of environment-dependent inbreeding effects in the bottlenecked populations. Reduced mating success of derived males will hamper speciation by enhancing the mating success of immigrant, ancestral males. Novel environments are generally thought to promote ecological speciation by generating divergent natural selection. In the current experiment, however, the novel environment did not cause the evolution of any premating isolation and it reduced the likelihood of speciation through its effects on male mating success.

Adult-population incidence of severe sepsis in Australian and New Zealand intensive care units

Objective. To determine the population incidence and outcome of severe sepsis occurring in adult patients treated in Australian and New Zealand intensive care units (ICUs), and compare with recent retrospective estimates from the USA and UK. Design. Inception cohort study. Setting. Twenty-three closed multi-disciplinary ICUs of 21 hospitals (16 tertiary and 5 university affiliated) in Australia and New Zealand. Patients. A total of 5878 consecutive ICU admission episodes. Measurements and results. Main outcome measures were population-based incidence of severe sepsis, mortality at ICU discharge, mortality at 28 days after onset of severe sepsis, and mortality at hospital discharge. A total of 691 patients, 11.8 (95% confidence intervals 10.9-12.6) per 100 ICU admissions, were diagnosed with 752 episodes of severe sepsis. Site of infection was pulmonary in 50.3% of episodes and abdominal in 19.3% of episodes. The calculated incidence of severe sepsis in adults treated in Australian and New Zealand ICUs is 0.77 (0.76-0.79) per 1000 of population. 26.5% of patients with severe sepsis died in ICU, 32.4% died within 28 days of the diagnosis of severe sepsis and 37.5% died in hospital. Conclusion. In this prospective study, 11.8 patients per 100 ICU admissions were diagnosed with severe sepsis and the calculated annual incidence of severe sepsis in adult patients treated in Australian and New Zealand ICUs is 0.77 per 1000 of population. This figure for the population incidence falls in the lower range of recent estimates from retrospective studies in the U.S. and the U.K.

Influence of socioeconomic deprivation on the primary care burden and treatment of patients with a diagnosis of heart failure in general practice in Scotland: population based study

Objectives To examine whether there are socioeconomic gradients in die incidence, prevalence, treatment, and follow up of patients with heart failure in primary care. Design Population based study. Setting 53 general practices (307741 patients) participating in the Scottish continuous morbidity recording project between 1 April 1999 and 31 March 2000. Participants 2186 adults with heart failure. Main outcome measures Comorbid diagnoses, frequency of visits to general practitioner, and prescribed drugs. Results 2186 patients with heart failure were seen (prevalence 7.1 per 1000 population, incidence 2.0 per 1000 population). The age and sex standardised incidence of heart failure increased with greater socioeconomic deprivation, from 1.8 per 1000 population in the most affluent stratum to 2.6 per 1000 population in the most deprived stratum (odds ratio 1.44, P=0.0003). On average, patients were seen 2.4 times yearly, but follow up rates were less frequent with increasing socioeconomic deprivation (from 2.6 yearly in the most affluent subgroup to 2.0 yearly in the most deprived subgroup, P=0.00009). Overall, 812 (80.6%) patients were prescribed diuretics, 396 (39.3%) angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, 216 (21.4%) beta blockers, 208 (20.7%) digoxin, and 86 (8.5%) spironolactone. The wide discrepancies in prescribing between different general practices disappeared after adjustment for patient age and sex. Prescribing patterns did not vary by deprivation categories on univariate or multivariate analyses. Conclusions Compared with affluent patients, socioeconomically deprived patients were 44% more likely to develop heart failure but 23% less likely to see their general practitioner on an ongoing basis. Prescribed treatment did not differ across socioeconomic gradients.

Diabetes mellitus and serum carotenoids: findings of a population-based study in Queensland, Australia

Background: Epidemiologic evidence suggests that serum carotenoids are potent antioxidants and may play a protective role in the development of chronic diseases including cancers, cardiovascular disease, and inflammatory diseases. The role of these antioxidants in the pathogenesis of diabetes mellitus remains unclear. Objective: This study examined data from a cross-sectional survey to investigate the association between serum carotenoids and type 2 diabetes. Design: Study participants were adults aged >= 25 y (n = 1597) from 6 randomly selected cities and towns in Queensland, Australia. Study examinations conducted between October and December 2000 included fasting plasma glucose, an oral-glucose-tolerance test, and measurement of the serum concentrations of 5 carotenoid compounds. Results: Mean 2-h postload plasma glucose and fasting insulin concentrations decreased significantly with increasing quintiles of the 5 serum carotenoids-alpha-carotene, beta-carotene, beta-cryptoxanthin, lutein/zeaxanthin, and lycopene. Geometric mean concentrations for all serum carotenoids decreased (all decreases were significant except that of lycopene) with declining glucose tolerance status. beta-Carotene had the greatest decrease, to geometric means of 0.59, 0.50, and 0.42 mu mol/L in persons with normal glucose tolerance, impaired glucose metabolism, and type 2 diabetes, respectively (P < 0.01 for linear trend), after control for potential confounders. Conclusions: Serum carotenoids are inversely associated with type 2 diabetes and impaired glucose metabolism. Randomized trials of diets high in carotenoid-rich vegetables and fruit are needed to confirm these results and those from other observational studies. Such evidence would have very important implications for the prevention of diabetes.

Design options for sample-based mortality surveillance

Background Reliable information on causes of death is a fundamental component of health development strategies, yet globally only about one-third of countries have access to such information. For countries currently without adequate mortality reporting systems there are useful models other than resource-intensive population-wide medical certification. Sample-based mortality surveillance is one such approach. This paper provides methods for addressing appropriate sample size considerations in relation to mortality surveillance, with particular reference to situations in which prior information on mortality is lacking. Methods The feasibility of model-based approaches for predicting the expected mortality structure and cause composition is demonstrated for populations in which only limited empirical data is available. An algorithm approach is then provided to derive the minimum person-years of observation needed to generate robust estimates for the rarest cause of interest in three hypothetical populations, each representing different levels of health development. Results Modelled life expectancies at birth and cause of death structures were within expected ranges based on published estimates for countries at comparable levels of health development. Total person-years of observation required in each population could be more than halved by limiting the set of age, sex, and cause groups regarded as 'of interest'. Discussion The methods proposed are consistent with the philosophy of establishing priorities across broad clusters of causes for which the public health response implications are similar. The examples provided illustrate the options available when considering the design of mortality surveillance for population health monitoring purposes.

Design, development, and use of molecular primers and probes for the detection of Gluconacetobacter species in the pink sugarcane mealybug

Molecular tools for the species-specific detection of Gluconacetobacter sacchari, Gluconacetobacter diazotrophicus, and Gluconacetobacter liquefaciens from the pink sugarcane mealybug (PSMB) Saccharicoccus sacchari Cockerell (Homiptera: Pseudococcidae) were developed and used in polymerase chain reactions (PCR) and in fluorescence in situ hybridizations (FISH) to better understand the microbial diversity and the numerical significance of the acetic acid bacteria in the PSMB microenvironment. The presence of these species in the PSMB occurred over a wide range of sites, but not in all sites in sugarcane-growing areas of Queensland, Australia, and was variable over time. Molecular probes for use in FISH were also designed for the three acetic acid bacterial species, and shown to be specific only for the target species. Use of these probes in FISH of squashed whole mealybugs indicated that these acetic acid bacteria species represent only a small proportion of the microbial population of the PSMB. Despite the detection of Glac. sacchari, Glac. diazotrophicus, and Glac. liquefaciens by PCR from different mealybugs isolated at various times and from various sugarcane-growing areas in Queensland, Australia, these bacteria do not appear to be significant commensals in the PSMB environment.

Increase of a Caribbean leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea nesting population linked to long-term nest protection

The leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea is considered to be at serious risk of global extinction, despite ongoing conservation efforts. Intensive long-term monitoring of a leatherback nesting population on Sandy Point (St. Croix, US Virgin Islands) offers a unique opportunity to quantify basic population parameters and evaluate effectiveness of nesting beach conservation practices. We report a significant increase in the number of females nesting annually from ca. 18-30 in the 1980s to 186 in 2001, with a corresponding increase in annual hatchling production from ca. 2000 to over 49,000. We then analyzed resighting data from 1991 to 2001 with an open robust-design capture-mark-recapture model to estimate annual nester survival and adult abundance for this population. The expected annual survival probability was estimated at ca. 0.893 (95% CL 0.87-0.92) and the population was estimated to be increasing ca. 13% pa since the early 1990s. Taken together with DNA fingerprinting that identify mother-daughter relations, our findings suggest that the increase in the size of the nesting population since 1991 was probably due to an aggressive program of beach protection and egg relocation initiated more than 20 years ago. Beach protection and egg relocation provide a simple and effective conservation strategy for this Northern Caribbean nesting population as long as adult survival at sea remains relatively high. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting population dynamics of weed biological control agents: science or gazing into crystal balls?

Various factors can influence the population dynamics of phytophages post introduction, of which climate is fundamental. Here we present an approach, using a mechanistic modelling package (CLIMEX), that at least enables one to make predictions of likely dynamics based on climate alone. As biological control programs will have minimal funding for basic work (particularly on population dynamics), we show how predictions can be made using a species geographical distribution, relative abundance across its range, seasonal phenology and laboratory rearing data. Many of these data sets are more likely to be available than long-term population data, and some can be incorporated into the exploratory phase of a biocontrol program. Although models are likely to be more robust the more information is available, useful models can be developed using information on species distribution alone. The fitted model estimates a species average response to climate, and can be used to predict likely geographical distribution if introduced, where the agent is likely to be more abundant (i.e. good locations) and more importantly for interpretation of release success, the likely variation in abundance over time due to intra- and inter-year climate variability. The latter will be useful in predicting both the seasonal and long-term impacts of the potential biocontrol agent on the target weed. We believe this tool may not only aid in the agent selection process, but also in the design of release strategies, and for interpretation of post-introduction dynamics and impacts. More importantly we are making testable predictions. If biological control is to become more of a science making and testing such hypothesis will be a key component.