The philosophical significance of Cox's theorem

Cox's theorem states that, under certain assumptions, any measure of belief is isomorphic to a probability measure. This theorem, although intended as a justification of the subjectivist interpretation of probability theory, is sometimes presented as an argument for more controversial theses. Of particular interest is the thesis that the only coherent means of representing uncertainty is via the probability calculus. In this paper I examine the logical assumptions of Cox's theorem and I show how these impinge on the philosophical conclusions thought to be supported by the theorem. I show that the more controversial thesis is not supported by Cox's theorem. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gauge Poisson representations for birth/death master equations

Poisson representation techniques provide a powerful method for mapping master equations for birth/death processes -- found in many fields of physics, chemistry and biology -- into more tractable stochastic differential equations. However, the usual expansion is not exact in the presence of boundary terms, which commonly occur when the differential equations are nonlinear. In this paper, a gauge Poisson technique is introduced that eliminates boundary terms, to give an exact representation as a weighted rate equation with stochastic terms. These methods provide novel techniques for calculating and understanding the effects of number correlations in systems that have a master equation description. As examples, correlations induced by strong mutations in genetics, and the astrophysical problem of molecule formation on microscopic grain surfaces are analyzed. Exact analytic results are obtained that can be compared with numerical simulations, demonstrating that stochastic gauge techniques can give exact results where standard Poisson expansions are not able to.

On the chaotic rotation of a liquid-filled gyrostat via the Melnikov-Holmes-Marsden integral

The non-linear motions of a gyrostat with an axisymmetrical, fluid-filled cavity are investigated. The cavity is considered to be completely filled with an ideal incompressible liquid performing uniform rotational motion. Helmholtz theorem, Euler's angular momentum theorem and Poisson equations are used to develop the disturbed Hamiltonian equations of the motions of the liquid-filled gyrostat subjected to small perturbing moments. The equations are established in terms of a set of canonical variables comprised of Euler angles and the conjugate angular momenta in order to facilitate the application of the Melnikov-Holmes-Marsden (MHM) method to investigate homoclinic/heteroclinic transversal intersections. In such a way, a criterion for the onset of chaotic oscillations is formulated for liquid-filled gyrostats with ellipsoidal and torus-shaped cavities and the results are confirmed via numerical simulations. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-level zero-inflated Poisson regression modelling of correlated count data with excess zeros

Count data with excess zeros relative to a Poisson distribution are common in many biomedical applications. A popular approach to the analysis of such data is to use a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model. Often, because of the hierarchical Study design or the data collection procedure, zero-inflation and lack of independence may occur simultaneously, which tender the standard ZIP model inadequate. To account for the preponderance of zero counts and the inherent correlation of observations, a class of multi-level ZIP regression model with random effects is presented. Model fitting is facilitated using an expectation-maximization algorithm, whereas variance components are estimated via residual maximum likelihood estimating equations. A score test for zero-inflation is also presented. The multi-level ZIP model is then generalized to cope with a more complex correlation structure. Application to the analysis of correlated count data from a longitudinal infant feeding study illustrates the usefulness of the approach.

Axiomatisation of an Interval Calculus for Theorem Proving

We provide an axiomatisation of the Timed Interval Calculus, a set-theoretic notation for expressing properties of time intervals. We implement the axiomatisation in the Ergo theorem prover in order to allow the machine-checked proof of laws for reasoning about predicates expressed using interval operators. These laws can be then used in the machine-assisted verification of real-time applications.