Multi-level zero-inflated Poisson regression modelling of correlated count data with excess zeros

Count data with excess zeros relative to a Poisson distribution are common in many biomedical applications. A popular approach to the analysis of such data is to use a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model. Often, because of the hierarchical Study design or the data collection procedure, zero-inflation and lack of independence may occur simultaneously, which tender the standard ZIP model inadequate. To account for the preponderance of zero counts and the inherent correlation of observations, a class of multi-level ZIP regression model with random effects is presented. Model fitting is facilitated using an expectation-maximization algorithm, whereas variance components are estimated via residual maximum likelihood estimating equations. A score test for zero-inflation is also presented. The multi-level ZIP model is then generalized to cope with a more complex correlation structure. Application to the analysis of correlated count data from a longitudinal infant feeding study illustrates the usefulness of the approach.

Dimensionless spray flux in wet granulation: Monte-Carlo simulations and experimental validation

Dimensionless spray flux Ψa is a dimensionless group that characterises the three most important variables in liquid dispersion: flowrate, drop size and powder flux through the spray zone. In this paper, the Poisson distribution was used to generate analytical solutions for the proportion of nuclei formed from single drops (fsingle) and the fraction of the powder surface covered by drops (fcovered) as a function of Ψa. Monte-Carlo simulations were performed to simulate the spray zone and investigate how Ψa, fsingle and fcovered are related. The Monte-Carlo data was an excellent match with analytical solutions of fcovered and fsingle as a function of Ψa. At low Ψa, the proportion of the surface covered by drops (fcovered) was equal to Ψa. As Ψa increases, drop overlap becomes more dominant and the powder surface coverage levels off. The proportion of nuclei formed from single drops (fsingle) falls exponentially with increasing Ψa. In the ranges covered, these results were independent of drop size, number of drops, drop size distribution (mono-sized, bimodal and trimodal distributions), and the uniformity of the spray. Experimental data of nuclei size distributions as a function of spray flux were fitted to the analytical solution for fsingle by defining a cutsize for single drop nuclei. The fitted cutsizes followed the spray drop sizes suggesting that the method is robust and that the cutsize does indicate the transition size between single drop and agglomerate nuclei. This demonstrates that the nuclei distribution is determined by the dimensionless spray flux and the fraction of drop controlled nuclei can be calculated analytically in advance.

The application of statistical process control charts to the detection and monitoring of hospital-acquired infections

The monitoring of infection control indicators including hospital-acquired infections is an established part of quality maintenance programmes in many health-care facilities. However, surveillance data use can be frustrated by the infrequent nature of many infections. Traditional methods of analysis often provide delayed identification of increasing infection occurrence, placing patients at preventable risk. The application of Shewhart, Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) statistical process control charts to the monitoring of indicator infections allows continuous real-time assessment. The Shewhart chart will detect large changes, while CUSUM and EWMA methods are more suited to recognition of small to moderate sustained change. When used together, Shewhart and EWMA methods are ideal for monitoring bacteraemia and multiresistant organism rates. Shewhart and CUSUM charts are suitable for surgical infection surveillance.

Energy level statistics for models of coupled single-mode Bose-Einstein condensates

We study the distribution of energy level spacings in two models describing coupled single-mode Bose-Einstein condensates. Both models have a fixed number of degrees of freedom, which is small compared to the number of interaction parameters, and is independent of the dimensionality of the Hilbert space. We find that the distribution follows a universal Poisson form independent of the choice of coupling parameters, which is indicative of the integrability of both models. These results complement those for integrable lattice models where the number of degrees of freedom increases with increasing dimensionality of the Hilbert space. Finally, we also show that for one model the inclusion of an additional interaction which breaks the integrability leads to a non-Poisson distribution.

Motor unit number estimation - A Bayesian approach

All muscle contractions are dependent on the functioning of motor units. In diseases such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), progressive loss of motor units leads to gradual paralysis. A major difficulty in the search for a treatment for these diseases has been the lack of a reliable measure of disease progression. One possible measure would be an estimate of the number of surviving motor units. Despite over 30 years of motor unit number estimation (MUNE), all proposed methods have been met with practical and theoretical objections. Our aim is to develop a method of MUNE that overcomes these objections. We record the compound muscle action potential (CMAP) from a selected muscle in response to a graded electrical stimulation applied to the nerve. As the stimulus increases, the threshold of each motor unit is exceeded, and the size of the CMAP increases until a maximum response is obtained. However, the threshold potential required to excite an axon is not a precise value but fluctuates over a small range leading to probabilistic activation of motor units in response to a given stimulus. When the threshold ranges of motor units overlap, there may be alternation where the number of motor units that fire in response to the stimulus is variable. This means that increments in the value of the CMAP correspond to the firing of different combinations of motor units. At a fixed stimulus, variability in the CMAP, measured as variance, can be used to conduct MUNE using the "statistical" or the "Poisson" method. However, this method relies on the assumptions that the numbers of motor units that are firing probabilistically have the Poisson distribution and that all single motor unit action potentials (MUAP) have a fixed and identical size. These assumptions are not necessarily correct. We propose to develop a Bayesian statistical methodology to analyze electrophysiological data to provide an estimate of motor unit numbers. Our method of MUNE incorporates the variability of the threshold, the variability between and within single MUAPs, and baseline variability. Our model not only gives the most probable number of motor units but also provides information about both the population of units and individual units. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo to obtain information about the characteristics of individual motor units and about the population of motor units and the Bayesian information criterion for MUNE. We test our method of MUNE on three subjects. Our method provides a reproducible estimate for a patient with stable but severe ALS. In a serial study, we demonstrate a decline in the number of motor unit numbers with a patient with rapidly advancing disease. Finally, with our last patient, we show that our method has the capacity to estimate a larger number of motor units.

Liquid distribution as a means to describing the granule growth mechanism

Copper concentrate (chalcopyrite) was granulated in a rotating drum with a diameter of 0.3 m and a length of 0.2 m. Water was used as the binder and it was sprayed onto the powder bed with a nozzle. This material exhibited induction type behaviour, which was defined by Iveson and Litster [AIChE J. 44 (1998) 1510]. Induction type behaviour is characterized by the occurrence of an induction stage, during which the granules are gradually being compacted and little or no growth occurs. At the end of this induction stage, binder liquid is squeezed from the interior of the granules onto the granule surface and the granules are then surface-wet. This results in a rapid growth rate of the granules. Different types of experiments were conducted. The influence of the nozzle pressure and the distance from the nozzle to the powder bed on the growth behaviour of the granules as well as on the binder distribution was examined. The results of these experiments led to the postulation of a modified mechanism for induction type behaviour: it was found that after the binder was delivered, there were large granules containing a high amount of binder and small granules containing less binder. During the induction stage, the granules are compacted and binder liquid continuously appears at the surface of the large granules. These wet spots that are continuously being formed pick up the dry and small granules. When all the small granules have been picked up, further expulsion of binder liquid onto the granules' surface results in granules that remain surface-wet. This phenomenon marks the end of the induction stage and it coincides with the disappearance of the small granules. The hypothesis was tested by selectively removing the smaller granules during an experiment. As expected, this resulted in a shorter induction time.

Distribution of major, minor, and trace metals in lake environments of Antarctica

The concentrations of major, minor and trace metals were measured in water samples collected from five shallow Antarctic lakes (Carezza, Edmonson Point (No 14 and 15a), Inexpressible Island and Tarn Flat) found in Terra Nova Bay (northern Victoria Land, Antarctica) during the Italian Expeditions of 1993-2001. The total concentrations of a large suite of elements (Al, As, Ba, Ca, Cd, Ce, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Fe, Ga, Gd, K, La, Li, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Nd, Ni, Pb, Pr, Rb, Sc, Si, Sr, Ta, Ti, U, V, Y, W, Zn and Zr) were determined using spectroscopic techniques (ICP-AES, GF-AAS and ICP-MS). The results are similar to those obtained for the freshwater lakes of the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica, and for the McMurdo Dry Valleys. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Cluster Analysis (CA) were performed to identify groups of samples with similar characteristics and to find correlations between the variables. The variability observed within the water samples is closely connected to the sea spray input; hence, it is primarily a consequence of geographical and meteorological factors, such as distance from the ocean and time of year. The trace element levels, in particular those of heavy metals, are very low, suggesting an origin from natural sources rather than from anthropogenic contamination.

Distribution, expression, and motif variability of ankyrin domain genes in Wolbachia pipientis

The endosymbiotic bacterium Wolbachia pipientis infects a wide range of arthropods, in which it induces a variety of reproductive phenotypes, including cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI), parthenogenesis, male killing, and reversal of genetic sex determination. The recent sequencing and annotation of the first Wolbachia genome revealed an unusually high number of genes encoding ankyrin domain (ANK) repeats. These ANK genes are likely to be important in mediating the Wolbachia-host interaction. In this work we determined the distribution and expression of the different ANK genes found in the sequenced Wolbachia wMel genome in nine Wolbachia strains that induce different phenotypic effects in their hosts. A comparison of the ANK genes of wMel and the non-CI-inducing wAu Wolbachia strain revealed significant differences between the strains. This was reflected in sequence variability in shared genes that could result in alterations in the encoded proteins, such as motif deletions, amino acid insertions, and in some cases disruptions due to insertion of transposable elements and premature stops. In addition, one wMel ANK gene, which is part of an operon, was absent in the wAu genome. These variations are likely to affect the affinity, function, and cellular location of the predicted proteins encoded by these genes.

Cytoplasmic incompatibility in Drosophila populations: influence of assortative mating on symbiont distribution

Cytoplasmic incompatibility is known to occur between strains of both Drosophila simulans and D. melanogaster. Incompatibility is associated with the infection of Drosophila with microorganismal endosymbionts. This paper reports survey work conducted on strains of D. simulans and D. melanogaster from diverse geographical locations finding that infected populations are relatively rare and scattered in their distribution. The distribution of infected populations of D. simulans appears to be at odds with deterministic models predicting the rapid spread of the infection through uninfected populations. Examination of isofemale lines from four localities in California where populations appear to be polymorphic for the infection failed to find evidence for consistent assortative mating preferences between infected and uninfected populations that may explain the basis for the observed polymorphism.

Sequence and tissue distribution of chicken cellular nucleic acid binding protein cDNA

We sequenced cDNAs coding for chicken cellular nucleic acid binding protein (CNBP). Two slightly different variations of the open reading frame were found, each of which translates into a protein with seven zinc finger domains. The longest transcript contains an in-frame insert of 3 bp. The sequence conservation between chick CNBP cDNAs with human, rat and mouse CNBP cDNAs is extreme, especially in the coding region, where the deduced amino acid sequence identity with human, rat and mouse CNBP is 99%. CNBP-like transcripts were also found in various tissues from insect, shrimp, fish and lizard. Regions with remarkable nucleotide conservation were also found in the 3' untranslated region, indicating important functions for these regions. Quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) indicated that in the chick, CNBP is present in all tissues examined in approximately equal ratios to total RNA. RT-PCR of total RNA isolated from different phyla indicate CNBP-like proteins art widespread throughout the animal kingdom. The extraordinary level of conservation suggests an important physiological role for CNBP. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc.

Distribution of transferrin saturation in an Australian population: Relevance to the early diagnosis of hemochromatosis

Background & Aims: An elevated transferrin saturation is the earliest phenotypic abnormality in hereditary hemochromatosis. Determination of transferrin saturation remains the most useful noninvasive screening test for affected individuals, but there is debate as to the appropriate screening level. The aims of this study were to estimate the mean transferrin saturation in hemochromatosis heterozygotes and normal individuals and to evaluate potential transferrin saturation screening levels. Methods: Statistical mixture modeling was applied to data from a survey of asymptomatic Australians to estimate the mean transferrin saturation in hemochromatosis heterozygotes and normal individuals. To evaluate potential transferrin saturation screening levels, modeling results were compared with data from identified hemochromatosis heterozygotes and homozygotes. Results: After removal of hemochromatosis homozygotes, two populations of transferrin saturation were identified in asymptomatic Australians (P < 0.01). In men, 88.2% of the truncated sample had a lower mean transferrin saturation of 24.1%, whereas 11.8% had an increased mean transferrin saturation of 37.3%. Similar results were found in women, A transferrin saturation threshold of 45% identified 98% of homozygotes without misidentifying any normal individuals. Conclusions: The results confirm that hemochromatosis heterozygotes form a distinct transferrin saturation subpopulation and support the use of transferrin saturation as an inexpensive screening test for hemochromatosis. In practice, a fasting transferrin saturation of greater than or equal to 45% identifies virtually all affected homozygous subjects without necessitating further investigation of unaffected normal individuals.