A mathematical model of HIV transmission in NSW prisons

A mathematical model was developed to estimate HIV incidence in NSW prisons. Data included: duration of imprisonment; number of inmates using each needle; lower and higher number of shared injections per IDU per week; proportion of IDUs using bleach; efficacy of bleach; HIV prevalence and probability of infection. HIV prevalence in IDUs in prison was estimated to have risen from 0.8 to 5.7% (12.2%) over 180 weeks when using lower (and higher) values for frequency of shared injections. The estimated minimum (and maximum) number of IDU inmates infected with HIV in NSW prisons was 38 (and 152) in 1993 according to the model. These figures require confirmation by seroincidence studies. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of joint position on the dynamics of perception-action coupling

Six right-handed subjects performed rhythmic flexion and extension movements of the index finger in time with an auditory metronome. On each block of trials, the wrist of the response hand was placed in a extended, neutral or flexed position. In the flex-on-the-beat condition, subjects were instructed to coordinate maximum excursion in the direction of finger flexion with each beat of the metronome. In the extend-on-the-beat condition, subjects were instructed to coordinate maximum excursion in the direction of finger extension with each beat of the metronome. The frequency of the metronome was increased from 2.00 Hz to 3.75 Hz in 8 steps (8 s epochs) of 0.25 Hz. During trials prepared in the extend-on-the-beat pattern, all subjects exhibited transitions to either a flex-on-the-beat pattern or to phase wandering as the frequency of pacing was increased. The time at which these transitions occurred was reliably influenced by the position of the wrist. Four subjects exhibited qualitative departures from the flex-on-the-beat pattern at pacing frequencies that were greater than those at which the extend-on-the-beat pattern could be maintained. The lime at which these departures occurred was not influenced by the position of the wrist. These results are discussed with reference to the constraints imposed on the coordination dynamics by the intrinsic properties of the neuromuscular-skeletal system.

Age-related differences in physical activity levels of young adults

Purpose: To examine age-related differences in the physical activity behaviors of young adults. Methods: We examined rates of participation in vigorous- and moderate-intensity leisure-time activity and walking, as well as an index of physical activity sufficient for health benefits in three Australian cross-sectional samples, for the age ranges of 18-19, 20-24, and 25-29 yr. Data were collected in 1991, 1996, and 1997/8. Results: There was at least a 15% difference in vigorous-intensity leisure-time physical activity from the 18-19 yr to the 25-29 yr age groups, and at least a 10% difference in moderate-intensity leisure-time physical activity. For the index of sufficient activity there was a difference between 9 and 21% across age groups. Differences in rates of walking were less than 8%. For all age groups, males had higher rates of participation for vigorous and moderate-intensity activity than did females, bur females had much higher rates of participation in walking than males. Age-associated differences in activity levels were more apparent for males. Conclusions: Promoting walking and various forms of moderate-intensity physical activities to young adult males, and encouraging young adult females to adopt other forms of moderate-intensity activity to complement walking may help to ameliorate decreases in physical activity over the adult lifespan.

Ultra-high-temperature (UHT) treatment of milk: comparison of direct and indirect modes of heating

UHT processing of milk and its subsequent storage causes several changes which affect the shelf-life of UHT milk although it remains 'commercially sterile'. These changes include whey protein denaturation, protein-protein interaction, lactose-protein interaction, isomerisation of lactose, Maillard browning, sulphydryl compound formation, formation of a range of carbonyl and other flavoursome compounds, and formation of insoluble substances. They ultimately reduce the quality and limit the shelf life of UHT milk through development of off-flavours, fat separation, age gelation and sedimentation. The extent of these changes depends on many factors, a major one being the type of UHT heating. This review compares the effect heating milk by direct and indirect modes on various aspects of processing and quality of UHT milk.

Mathematical modelling of schistosomiasis japonica: comparison of control strategies in the People's Republic of China

We present the first mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum. The work extends Barbour's classic model of schistosome transmission. It allows for the mammalian host heterogeneity characteristic of the S. japonicum life cycle, and solves the problem of under-specification of Barbour's model by the use of Chinese data we are collecting on human-bovine transmission in the Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi Province in China. The model predicts that in the lake/marshland areas of the Yangtze River basin: (1) once-early mass chemotherapy of humans is little better than twice-yearly mass chemotherapy in reducing human prevalence. Depending on the heterogeneity of prevalence within the population, targeted treatment of high prevalence groups, with lower overall coverage, can be more effective than mass treatment with higher overall coverage. Treatment confers a short term benefit only, with prevalence rising to endemic levels once chemotherapy programs are stopped (2) depending on the relative contributions of bovines and humans, bovine treatment can benefit humans almost as much as human treatment. Like human treatment, bovine treatment confers a short-term benefit. A combination of human and bovine treatment will dramatically reduce human prevalence and maintains the reduction for a longer period of time than treatment of a single host, although human prevalence rises once treatment ceases; (3) assuming 75% coverage of bovines, a bovine vaccine which acts on worm fecundity must have about 75% efficacy to reduce the reproduction rate below one and ensure mid-term reduction and long-term elimination of the parasite. Such a vaccination program should be accompanied by an initial period of human treatment to instigate a short-term reduction in prevalence, following which the reduction is enhanced by vaccine effects; (4) if the bovine vaccine is only 45% efficacious (the level of current prototype vaccines) it will lower the endemic prevalence, but will not result in elimination. If it is accompanied by an initial period of human treatment and by a 45% improvement in human sanitation or a 30% reduction in contaminated water contact by humans, elimination is then possible. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Differential modes of alaryngeal communication and long-term voice outcomes following pharyngolaryngectomy and laryngectomy

Patterns of vocal rehabilitation for 37 pharyngolaryngectomy patients and 55 total laryngectomy patients over a 5-year period were compared. An electrolarynx (EL) was introduced as the initial communication mode immediately after surgery for 98% of patients, with 30% of pharyngolaryngectomy and 74% of laryngectomy patients subsequently developing tracheoesophageal speech (TES) as their primary mode of communication. Follow-up with 14 of 37 pharyngolaryngectomy patients and 36 of 55 laryngectomy patients was conducted 1-6 years following surgery and revealed that 90% of the pharyngolaryngectomy patients maintained the use of TES in the long term compared to 69% of the laryngectomy group. Long-term outcomes relating to communication disability and handicap did not differ significantly between the two surgical groups, however the laryngectomy patients had significantly higher levels of wellbeing. Across the whole group of patients, statistical comparison revealed that patients using TES had significantly lower levels of disability, handicap and distress than EL users. Considering that lower levels of disability, handicap and distress are associated with TES, and the data supports that suitably selected patients can maintain functional TES in the long term, increased application of this form of communication rehabilitation should be encouraged where viable for the pharyngolaryngectomy population. Copyright (C) 2003 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A mathematical model of concentrate solids content for the wet drum magnetic separator

Low concentrate density from wet drum magnetic separators in dense medium circuits can cause operating difficulties due to inability to obtain the required circulating medium density and, indirectly, high medium solids losses. The literature is almost silent on the processes controlling concentrate density. However, the common name for the region through which concentrate is discharged-the squeeze pan gap-implies that some extrusion process is thought to be at work. There is no model of magnetics recovery in a wet drum magnetic separator, which includes as inputs all significant machine and operating variables. A series of trials, in both factorial experiments and in single variable experiments, was done using a purpose built rig which featured a small industrial scale (700 mm lip length, 900 turn diameter) wet drum magnetic separator. A substantial data set of 191 trials was generated in this work. The results of the factorial experiments were used to identify the variables having a significant effect on magnetics recovery. It is proposed, based both on the experimental observations of the present work and on observations reported in the literature, that the process controlling magnetic separator concentrate density is one of drainage. Such a process should be able to be defined by an initial moisture, a drainage rate and a drainage time, the latter being defined by the volumetric flowrate and the volume within the drainage zone. The magnetics can be characterised by an experimentally derived ultimate drainage moisture. A model based on these concepts and containing adjustable parameters was developed. This model was then fitted to a randomly chosen 80% of the data, and validated by application to the remaining 20%. The model is shown to be a good fit to data over concentrate solids content values from 40% solids to 80% solids and for both magnetite and ferrosilicon feeds. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A mathematical model of recovery of dense medium magnetics in the wet drum magnetic separator

Loss of magnetic medium solids from dense medium circuits is a substantial contributor to operating cost. Much of this loss is by way of wet drum magnetic separator effluent. A model of the separator would be useful for process design, optimisation and control. A review of the literature established that although various rules of thumb exist, largely based on empirical or anecdotal evidence, there is no model of magnetics recovery in a wet drum magnetic separator which includes as inputs all significant machine and operating variables. A series of trials, in both factorial experiments and in single variable experiments, was therefore carried out using a purpose built rig which featured a small industrial scale (700 mm lip length, 900 mm diameter) wet drum magnetic separator. A substantial data set of 191 trials was generated in the work. The results of the factorial experiments were used to identify the variables having a significant effect on magnetics recovery. Observations carried out as an adjunct to this work, as well as magnetic theory, suggests that the capture of magnetic particles in the wet drum magnetic separator is by a flocculation process. Such a process should be defined by a flocculation rate and a flocculation time; the latter being defined by the volumetric flowrate and the volume within the separation zone. A model based on this concept and containing adjustable parameters was developed. This model was then fitted to a randomly chosen 80% of the data, and validated by application to the remaining 20%. The model is shown to provide a satisfactory fit to the data over three orders of magnitude of magnetics loss. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science BY. All rights reserved.

Do expertise and the degree of perception-action coupling affect natural anticipatory performance?

Two experiments using a temporal occlusion paradigm (the first with expert and novice participants and the second with participants of intermediate skill) were conducted to examine the capability of tennis players to predict the direction of an opponent's service in situ. In both experiments two different response conditions, reflecting differing degrees of perception-action coupling, were employed. In a coupled condition players were required to make a movement-based response identical to that which they would use to hit a return of service in a game situation, whereas in an uncoupled condition a verbal prediction of service direction was required. Experiment 1 provided clear evidence of superior prediction accuracy under the coupled response condition when ball flight was available, plus some limited evidence to suggest that superior prediction accuracy under uncoupled response conditions might hold true if only advance (pre-contact) information was available. Experiment 2 showed the former finding to be a robust one, but was unable to reveal any support for the latter. Experiment 1 also revealed that expert superiority is more apparent for predictions made under natural (coupled) than uncoupled response-mode conditions. Collectively, these findings suggest that different perceptual processes may be in operation in anticipatory tasks which depend on skill level, the type of information presented, and degree of perception-action coupling inherent in the task requirements.

Reliability of moderate-intensity and vigorous physical activity stage of change measures for young adults

Background. The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability of stage of change (SOC) measures for moderate-intensity and vigorous physical activity in two separate samples of young adults. Staging measures have focused on vigorous exercise, but current public health guidelines emphasize moderate-intensity activity. Method. For college students in the USA (n = 105) and in Australia (n = 123), SOC was assessed separately on two occasions for moderate-intensity activity and for vigorous activity. Test-retest repeatability was determined, using Cohen's kappa coefficient. Results. In both samples, the reliability scores for the moderate-intensity physical activity staging measure were lower than the scores for the vigorous exercise staging measure. Weighted kappa values for the moderate-intensity staging measure were in the fair to good range for both studies (0.50 and 0.45); for the vigorous staging measure kappa values were excellent and fair to good (0.76 and 0.72). Conclusions. There is a need to standardize and improve methods for staging moderate-intensity activity, given that such measures are used in public health interventions targeting HEPA (health-enhancing physical activity). (C) 2003 American Health Foundation and Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.