Ground water model calibration using pilot points and regularization

Use of nonlinear parameter estimation techniques is now commonplace in ground water model calibration. However, there is still ample room for further development of these techniques in order to enable them to extract more information from calibration datasets, to more thoroughly explore the uncertainty associated with model predictions, and to make them easier to implement in various modeling contexts. This paper describes the use of pilot points as a methodology for spatial hydraulic property characterization. When used in conjunction with nonlinear parameter estimation software that incorporates advanced regularization functionality (such as PEST), use of pilot points can add a great deal of flexibility to the calibration process at the same time as it makes this process easier to implement. Pilot points can be used either as a substitute for zones of piecewise parameter uniformity, or in conjunction with such zones. In either case, they allow the disposition of areas of high and low hydraulic property value to be inferred through the calibration process, without the need for the modeler to guess the geometry of such areas prior to estimating the parameters that pertain to them. Pilot points and regularization can also be used as an adjunct to geostatistically based stochastic parameterization methods. Using the techniques described herein, a series of hydraulic property fields can be generated, all of which recognize the stochastic characterization of an area at the same time that they satisfy the constraints imposed on hydraulic property values by the need to ensure that model outputs match field measurements. Model predictions can then be made using all of these fields as a mechanism for exploring predictive uncertainty.

Enhanced dust deposition by trees recently established on degraded rangeland

Results from 2 years of dust deposition monitoring in a 10-year-old Pinus nigra plantation near Lake Tekapo are presented. They show that recently established plantations significantly enhance dust deposition rates. This could reverse a cycle of soil loss and enhance vertical accretion of soil, which would provide more options for future land use. However, observations indicate that even under such enhanced conditions for soil formation, it would take several thousand years to replace the soil lost to erosion since European farming practices were first introduced to the northern section of the Mackenzie Basin.

Influence of the 23 October 2002 dust storm on the air quality of four Australian cities

Widespread drought and record maximum temperatures in eastern Australia produced a large dust storm on 23 October, 2002 which traversed a large proportion of eastern Australia and engulfed communities along a 2000 km stretch of coastline from south of Sydney ( NSW) to north of Mackay ( Queensland). This event provided an opportunity for a study of the impacts of rural dust upon the air quality of four Australian cities. A simple model is used to predict dust concentrations, dust deposition rates and particle size characteristics of the airborne dust in the cities. The total dust load of the plume was 3.35 to 4.85 million tones, and assuming a ( conservative) plume height of 1500 m, 62 - 90% of this dust load was deposited in-transit to the coast. It is conservatively estimated that 3.5, 12.0, 2.1 and 1.7 kilotonnes of dust were deposited during the event in Sydney, Brisbane, Gladstone and Mackay, respectively. In the South East Queensland region, this deposition is equivalent to 40% of the total annual TSP emissions for the region. The event increased TSP, PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations and reduced the visibility beyond the health and amenity guidelines in the four cities. For example, the 24-h average PM10 concentrations in Brisbane and Mackay, were 161 and 475 mu g m(-3) respectively, compared with the Australian national ambient air quality standard of 50 mu g m(-3). The 24-h average PM2.5 concentration in Brisbane was 42 mu g m(-3), compared with the national advisory standard of 25 mu g m(-3). These rural dusts significantly increased PM10/TSP ratios and decreased PM2.5/PM10 ratios, indicating that most of the particles were between PM2.5 and PM10.

Provenance of long-travelled dust determined with ultra-trace-element composition: A pilot study with samples from New Zealand glaciers

We report high-precision inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometric (ICP-MS) compositional data for 39 trace elements in a variety of dust deposits, trapped sediments and surface samples from New Zealand and Australia. Dusts collected from the surface of alpine glaciers in the Southern Alps, New Zealand, believed to have undergone long-distance atmospheric transport from Australia, are recognizable on account of their overabundances of Pb and Cu with respect to typical upper crustal values. Long-travelled dust from Australia therefore scavenges these and other metals (e.g. Zn, Sb and Cd) from the atmosphere during transport and deposition. Hence, due to anthropogenic pollution, long-travelled Australian dusts can be recognized by elevated metal contents. The relative abundance of 25 other elements that are not affected by atmospheric pollution, mineral sorting (Zr and Hf) and weathering/solubility (alkali and earth alkali elements) reflects the geochemistry of the dust source sediment. As a result, we are able to establish the provenance of dust using ultra-trace-element chemistry at regional scale. Comparison of long-travelled dust chemistry with potential Australian sources shows that fits of variable quality are obtained. We propose that the best fitting potential source chemistry most likely represents the major dust source area. A binary mixing model is used to demonstrate that admixture of small quantities of local dust provides an even better fitting dust chemistry for the long-travelled dusts. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Climatic variability in the southwest Pacific during the Last Termination (20-10 kyr BP)

The degree to which palaeoclimatic changes in the Southern Hemisphere co-varied with events in the high latitude Northern Hemisphere during the Last Termination is a contentious issue, with conflicting evidence for the degree of 'teleconnection' between different regions of the Southern Hemisphere. The available hypotheses are difficult to test robustly, however, because there are few detailed palaeoclimatic records in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we present climatic reconstructions from the southwestern Pacific, a key region in the Southern Hemisphere because of the potentially important role it plays in global climate change. The reconstructions for the period 20-10 kyr BP were obtained from five sites along a transect from southern New Zealand, through Australia to Indonesia, supported by 125 calibrated C-14 ages. Two periods of significant climatic change can be identified across the region at around 17 and 14.2 cal kyr BP, most probably associated with the onset of warming in the West Pacific Warm Pool and the collapse of Antarctic ice during Meltwater Pulse-1A, respectively. The severe geochronological constraints that inherently afflict age models based on radiocarbon dating and the lack of quantified climatic parameters make more detailed interpretations problematic, however. There is an urgent need to address the geochronological limitations, and to develop more precise and quantified estimates of the pronounced climate variations that clearly affected this region during the Last Termination. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.