Nonstationary brand variables in category management: A cointegration perspective

Category-management models serve to assist in the development of plans for pricing and promotions of individual brands. Techniques to solve the models can have problems of accuracy and interpretability because they are susceptible to spurious regression problems due to nonstationary time-series data. Improperly stated nonstationary systems can reduce the accuracy of the forecasts and undermine the interpretation of the results. This is problematic because recent studies indicate that sales are often a nonstationary time-series. Newly developed correction techniques can account for nonstationarity by incorporating error-correction terms into the model when using a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model. The benefit of using such a technique is that shocks to control variates can be separated into permanent and temporary effects and allow cointegration of series for analysis purposes. Analysis of a brand data set indicates that this is important even at the brand level. Thus, additional information is generated that allows a decision maker to examine controllable variables in terms of whether they influence sales over a short or long duration. Only products that are nonstationary in sales volume can be manipulated for long-term profit gain, and promotions must be cointegrated with brand sales volume. The brand data set is used to explore the capabilities and interpretation of cointegration.

The effectiveness of heat, cold and 6-dimethylaminopurine shocks for inducing tetraploidy in the Kuruma shrimp, Marsupenaeus japonicus (Bate)

In this study tetraploid Marsupenaeus japonicus (Bate) embryos were produced by preventing the first division in mitosis. The effectiveness of temperature and chemical shocks for producing tetraploid M. japonicus were assessed when applied at different times postspawning and for different durations. Tetraploid M. japonicus embryos (spawned at 27 degrees C) were produced by heat shocks at 35 degrees C and 36 degrees C in three and eight spawning samples respectively, and a cold shock at 5 degrees C in a single spawning sample. All temperature shocks inducing tetraploidy were applied 18-23 min postspawning for a 5-10 min duration. The percentage of spawnings successfully inducing tetraploid embryos (i.e., frequency of induction) ranged from 33.33% to 66.67% for the 21, 22 and 23 min postspawning heat shock treatment regimes. The percentage of tetraploid embryos within an induction (i.e., induction rate), as determined by flow cytometry, ranged from 8.82% to 98.12% (ave. S.E.) (34.4 +/- 21.4%) for the 35 degrees C shock treatments, from 13.12% to 61.02% (35.0 +/- 5.0%) for the 36 degrees C shock treatments and was 15% for the 5 degrees C cold shock treatment. No tetraploids were produced for spawnings that received heat shocks above 36 degrees C or below 35 degrees C, or for cold shocks above 5 degrees C for any of the tested postspawning treatment and duration times. Chemical shock with 150 mu M 6-dimethylaminopurine did not result in tetraploid M. japonicus embryos at any of the tested postspawning treatment times and durations. Tetraploid M. japonicus embryos were nonviable, with no tetraploid larvae being detected by flow cytometry. Based on our results heat shocking of M. japonicus embryos at 36 degrees C, 23 min postspawning for a 5-10 min duration is the most effective means to produce tetraploids through inhibition of the first mitotic division (taking into consideration the importance of frequency and induction rate equally).