Relative accuracy and predictive ability of direct valuation methods, price to aggregate earnings method and a hybrid approach

In this paper, we assess the relative performance of the direct valuation method and industry multiplier models using 41 435 firm-quarter Value Line observations over an 11 year (1990–2000) period. Results from both pricingerror and return-prediction analyses indicate that direct valuation yields lower percentage pricing errors and greater return prediction ability than the forward price to aggregated forecasted earnings multiplier model. However, a simple hybrid combination of these two methods leads to more accurate intrinsic value estimates, compared to either method used in isolation. It would appear that fundamental analysis could benefit from using one approach as a check on the other.

Lifetime prevalence estimates of major depression: An indirect estimation method and a quantification of recall bias

The measurement of lifetime prevalence of depression in cross-sectional surveys is biased by recall problems. We estimated it indirectly for two countries using modelling, and quantified the underestimation in the empirical estimate for one. A microsimulation model was used to generate population-based epidemiological measures of depression. We fitted the model to 1-and 12-month prevalence data from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS) and the Australian Adult Mental Health and Wellbeing Survey. The lowest proportion of cases ever having an episode in their life is 30% of men and 40% of women, for both countries. This corresponds to a lifetime prevalence of 20 and 30%, respectively, in a cross-sectional setting (aged 15-65). The NEMESIS data were 38% lower than these estimates. We conclude that modelling enabled us to estimate lifetime prevalence of depression indirectly. This method is useful in the absence of direct measurement, but also showed that direct estimates are underestimated by recall bias and by the cross-sectional setting.

On the equivalence of weighted Country-Product-Dummy (CPD) Method and the Rao-System for multilateral price comparisons

The country-product-dummy (CPD) method, originally proposed in Summers (1973), has recently been revisited in its weighted formulation to handle a variety of data related situations (Rao and Timmer, 2000, 2003; Heravi et al., 2001; Rao, 2001; Aten and Menezes, 2002; Heston and Aten, 2002; Deaton et al., 2004). The CPD method is also increasingly being used in the context of hedonic modelling instead of its original purpose of filling holes in Summers (1973). However, the CPD method is seen, among practitioners, as a black box due to its regression formulation. The main objective of the paper is to establish equivalence of purchasing power parities and international prices derived from the application of the weighted-CPD method with those arising out of the Rao-system for multilateral comparisons. A major implication of this result is that the weighted-CPD method would then be a natural method of aggregation at all levels of aggregation within the context of international comparisons.

Using intervention time series analyses to assess the effects of imperfectly identifiable natural events: A general method and example

BACKGROUND: Intervention time series analysis (ITSA) is an important method for analysing the effect of sudden events on time series data. ITSA methods are quasi-experimental in nature and the validity of modelling with these methods depends upon assumptions about the timing of the intervention and the response of the process to it. METHOD: This paper describes how to apply ITSA to analyse the impact of unplanned events on time series when the timing of the event is not accurately known, and so the problems of ITSA methods are magnified by uncertainty in the point of onset of the unplanned intervention. RESULTS: The methods are illustrated using the example of the Australian Heroin Shortage of 2001, which provided an opportunity to study the health and social consequences of an abrupt change in heroin availability in an environment of widespread harm reduction measures. CONCLUSION: Application of these methods enables valuable insights about the consequences of unplanned and poorly identified interventions while minimising the risk of spurious results.

Refined method of potential enhancement in the equilibria characterization of activated carbon. Comparison with GCMC and DFT

In this paper, we present a technique for equilibria characterization of activated carbon having slit-shaped pores. This method was first developed by Do (Do, D. D. A new method for the characterisation of micro-mesoporous materials. Presented at the International Symposium on New Trends in Colloid and Interface Science, September 24-26, 1998 Chiba, Japan) and applied by his group and other groups for characterization of pore size distribution (PSD) as well as adsorption equilibria determination of a wide range of hydrocarbons. It is refined in this paper and compared with the grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMG) simulation and density functional theory (DFT). The refined theory results in a good agreement between the pore filling pressure versus pore width and those obtained by GCMG and DFT. Furthermore, our local isotherms are qualitatively in good agreement with those obtained by the GCMC simulations. The main advantage of this method is that it is about 4 orders of magnitude faster than the GCMC simulations, making it suitable for optimization studies and design purposes. Finally, we apply our method and the GCMG in the derivation of the PSD of a commercial activated carbon. It was found that the PSD derived from our method is comparable to that derived from the GCMG simulations.

Encapsulation of lipopeptides within liposomes: Effect of number of lipid chains, chain length and method of liposome preparation

The purpose of this study was to systematically investigate the effect of lipid chain length and number of lipid chains present on lipopeptides on their ability to be incorporated within liposomes. The peptide KAVYNFATM was synthesized and conjugated to lipoamino acids having acyl chain lengths of C-8, C-12 and C-16. The C-12 construct was also prepared in the monomeric, dimeric and trimeric form. Liposomes were prepared by two techniques: hydration of dried lipid films (Bangham method) and hydration of freeze-dried monophase systems. Encapsulation of lipopeptide within liposomes prepared by hydration of dried lipid films was incomplete in all cases ranging from an entrapment efficiency of 70% for monomeric lipoamino acids at a 5% (w/w) loading to less than 20% for di- and trimeric forms at loadings of 20% (w/w). The incomplete entrapment of lipopeptides within liposomes appeared to be a result of the different solubilities of the lipopeptide and the phospholipids in the solvent used for the preparation of the lipid film. In contrast, encapsulation of lipopeptide within liposomes prepared by hydration of freeze-dried monophase systems was high, even up to a loading of 20% (w/w) and was much less affected by the acyl chain length and number than when liposomes were prepared by hydration of dried lipid films. Freeze drying of monophase systems is better at maintaining a molecular dispersion of the lipopeptide within the solid phospholipid matrix compared to preparation of lipid film by evaporation, particularly if the solubility of the lipopeptide in solvents is markedly different from that of the polar lipids used for liposome preparation. Consequently, upon hydration, the lipopeptide is more efficiently intercalated within the phospholipid bilayers. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.