An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Future for the Past: Rethinking the Garden Suburb

In the quest for sustainability in affluent urban societies we could do much worse than to look again at what the garden suburb attempted to do. Brentham garden suburb in West London, which has recently celebrated its centenary, is a case in point.

Review of 'The Thai Village Economy in the Past'

This charmingly old-fashioned little book was first published in Thai in 1984, and now appears in an elegant English translation. The two major intellectual influences that gave it birth are rather older, dating from the 1950s, 1960s, and early 1970s. The first developed from the intersection of the academic pre-eminence of varieties of Marxist thinking about the Third World and the struggles of anticolonial peasant-based revolutionaries and produced a high age of romanticism about the Southeast Asian village and the unfortunate victims who inhabited them. The origins of the second are more uncertain, but probably represent, paradoxically, a Thai appropriation of those Western social-science constructions of Thai cultural uniqueness which were especially popular in the 1950s and 1960s.

Moderating effect of ear preference on personality in the prediction of sales performance

This study examined the relationship between ear preference, personality, and performance ratings on 203 telesales staff. Social desirability scores were a significant predictor of two relatively independent sets of supervisor ratings (actual performance and developmental potential) in interaction with ear preference. It was found that the social desirability scale was a significant positive predictor for staff preferring a right ear headset, but a negative predictor for staff preferring a left ear headset. These results were interpreted in terms of different strategies used to achieve successful sales.