20 resultados para PROSPECTIVE STUDIES

em University of Queensland eSpace - Australia


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The importance of overweight as a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) remains unsettled. We estimated the relative risk (RR) for CHD associated with underweight (body mass index, BMI < 20 kg/m2), overweight (25 – 30 kg/m2) and obesity (= 30 kg/m2), compared with normal weight (20 – 25 kg/m2) in a random effects meta-analysis of 30 prospective studies, including 389,239 healthy, predominantly Caucasian persons. We also explored sources of heterogeneity between studies and examined effects of systematic adjustment for confounding and intermediary variables. Pooled age-, sex- and smoking-adjusted RRs (95% confidence interval) for overweight, obesity and underweight compared with normal weight were 1.33 (1.24 – 1.43), 1.69 (1.44 – 1.99) and 1.01 (0.85 – 1.20), respectively. Stratified analyses showed that pooled RRs for BMI were higher for studies with longer follow-up (= vs. < 15 years) and younger populations (< vs. = 60 years). Additional adjustment for blood pressure, cholesterol levels and physical activity decreased the RR per 5 BMI units from 1.28 (1.21 – 1.34) to 1.16 (1.11 – 1.21). We conclude that overweight and obesity are associated with a substantially increased CHD risk in Caucasians, whereas underweight is not. Prevention and reduction of overweight and obesity, therefore, remain of importance for preventing CHD.

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An inverse association between cigarette smoking and idiopathic Parkinson's disease has been reported in several retrospective studies, but prospective evidence is available only for men. We assessed the association between the incidence of Parkinson's disease and smoking in two large prospective cohort studies comprising men and women. New cases of Parkinson's disease were identified in the Nurses' Health Study for 1976-1996, and in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study for 1986-1996. Smoking history was assessed at baseline and updated on subsequent biennial questionnaires. In women, the age-adjusted rate ratios (95% confidence intervals) for Parkinson's disease relative to never-smokers were 0.7 (0.5, 1.0) for past smokers, and 0.4 (0.2, 0.7) for current smokers. In men, the age-adjusted rate ratios for Parkinson's disease relative to never-smokers were 0.5 (0.4, 0.7) for past smokers, and 0.3 (0.1, 0.8) for current smokers. In both cohorts, the strength of the association decreased with time since quitting (among past smokers), increased with number of cigarettes per day (among current smokers), and increased with pack-years of smoking. These prospective findings confirm that an inverse association between smoking and the incidence of Parkinson's disease exists in both men and women.

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Background Well-designed prospective studies of substance misuse in first-episode psychosis can improve our understanding of the risks associated with comorbid substance misuse and psychosis. Aims To examine the potential effects of substance misuse on in-patient admission and remission and relapse of positive symptoms in first-episode psychosis. Method The study was a prospective 15-month follow-up investigation of 103 patients with first-episode psychosis recruited from three mental health services. Results Substance misuse was independently associated with increased risk of in-patient admission, relapse of positive symptoms and shorter time to relapse of positive symptoms after controlling for potential confounding factors, Substance misuse was not associated with remission or time to remission of positive symptoms. Heavy substance misuse was associated with increased risk of in-patient admission, relapse and shorter time to relapse. Conclusions Substance misuse is an independent risk factor for a problematic recovery from first-episode psychosis.

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The purpose of this study was to examine whether methadone maintenance treatment reduces injecting risk behaviour land therefore transmission of blood-borne viral infections) among prisoners in New South Wales (NSW), using comparison of retrospective reports of drug use in prisons for people who received standard drug treatment, time-limited methadone treatment and methadone maintenance treatment, The setting for the study was the NSW prison system. One hundred and eighty-five injecting drug users who had been recently released from NSW prisons were recruited in 1993, Self-reported drug use and injecting risk behaviour were compared in inmates who received standard drug treatment (counselling), time-limited methadone treatment and methadone maintenance treatment. HIV status was determined by serology, Intervention comprised high and low dose methadone treatment and counselling. The groups were similar in terms of most basic demographic characteristics but subjects who had been maintained on methadone reported a significantly lower prevalence of heroin injection, syringe sharing and scored lower on an HIV Risk-taking Behavioural Scale than subjects who received standard drug treatment and time-limited methadone treatment, This study suggests that methadone treatment is associated with reduced injecting risk behaviour in prison with adequate (greater than 60 mg) dose and duration in treatment. These treatment conditions are known to increase effectiveness in community-based methadone programmes. Prospective studies are required to evaluate the effectiveness of methadone programmes in the prevention of HIV and other blood-borne viral infections among IDU prisoners.

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Background-The importance of serum triglyceride levels as a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases is uncertain. Methods and Results-We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis of prospective studies conducted in the Asia-Pacific region. Cox models were applied to the combined data from 26 studies to estimate the overall and region-, sex-, and age-specific hazard ratios for major cardiovascular diseases by fifths of triglyceride values. During 796 671 person-years of follow-up among 96 224 individuals, 670 and 667 deaths as a result of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, respectively, were recorded. After adjustment for major cardiovascular risk factors, participants grouped in the highest fifth of triglyceride levels had a 70% (95% CI, 47 to 96) greater risk of CHD death, an 80% (95% CI, 49 to 119) higher risk of fatal or nonfatal CHD, and a 50% (95% CI, 29% to 76%) increased risk of fatal or nonfatal stroke compared with those belonging to the lowest fifth. The association between triglycerides and CHD death was similar across subgroups defined by ethnicity, age, and sex. Conclusions-Serum triglycerides are an important and independent predictor of CHD and stroke risk in the Asia-Pacific region. These results may have clinical implications for cardiovascular risk prediction and the use of lipid-lowering therapy.

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Papillon LeFevre Syndrome, or PLS, was first described over 70 years ago. It is characterised by severe periodontal disease, typically leading to loss of teeth by adolescence, combined with palmoplantar hyperkeratosis. The fact that it is associated with consanguinity in particular ethnic groups suggests that genotype may contribute to the aetiology of this syndrome. Microbiological studies have been hampered by the rareness of the condition which makes prospective studies virtually impossible to perform. Numerous studies on small groups of patients, sometimes single cases, together suggest an association of recognised periodontal pathogens with PLS. Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans has been especially linked to PLS and raised levels of antibody to A.a. have been measured in some PLS patients, though not others. Porphyromonas gingivalis and Prevotella intermedia have also been detected in plaque samples from PLS, using monoclonal antibodies. Many other species have also been associated with PLS following culture and identification, as well as use of probes. Treatment has been attempted by eradication of periodontal pathogens so that teeth can erupt into a 'safe' environment. Successful treatment has needed intensive treatment and monitoring and good oral hygiene as well as thorough antibiotic therapy of patient, family members and even pets. Recently a Cathepsin C genotype has been strongly linked to PLS. However, this gene cannot account for all features of PLS and we can speculate that additional genes must be involved. It is concluded that PLS results from a combination of host and bacterial factors, including recessive human gene(s) associated with consanguinity, specific periodontal pathogens and lack of thorough oral hygiene. It is also believed that the human genetic component may merit examination as a 'host factor' in other bacterial infections. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

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Prospective studies have shown rapid engraftment using granulocyte-colony-stimulating factor-mobilized peripheral blood stem cells (G-PBSCs) for allogeneic transplantation, though the risks for graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) may be increased. It was hypothesized that the use of G-CSF to prime bone marrow (GBM) would allow rapid engraftment without increased risk for GVHD compared with G-PBSC. Patients were randomized to receive G-BM or G-PBSCs for allogeneic stem cell transplantation. The study was designed (beta < .8) to detect a difference in the incidence of chronic GVHD of 33% ( < .05). The plan was to recruit 100 patients and to conduct an interim analysis when the 6-month follow-up point was reached for the first 50 patients. Fifty-seven consecutive patients were recruited (G-BM, n = 28; G-PBSC, n = 29). Patients in the G-PBSC group received 3-fold more CD34(+) and 9-fold more CD3(+) cells. Median times to neutrophil (G-BM, 16 days; G-PBSC, 14 days; P < .1) and platelet engraftment (G-BM, 14 days; G-PBSC, 12 days; P < .1) were similar. The use of G-PBSC was associated with steroid refractory acute GVHD (G-BM, 0%; G-PBSC, 32%; P < .001), chronic GVHD (G-BM, 22%; G-PBSC, 80%; P < .02), and prolonged requirement for immunosuppressive therapy (G-BM, 173 days; G-PBSC, 680 days; P < .009). Survival was similar for the 2 groups. Compared with G-PBSC the use of G-BM resulted in comparable engraftment, reduced severity of acute GVHD, and less subsequent chronic GVHD. (Blood. 2001;98:3186-3191) (C) 2001 by The American Society of Hematology.

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Objective To assist with strategic planning for the eradication,of malaria in Henan Province, China, which reached the consolidation phase of malaria control in 1992, when only 318 malaria cases were reported, Methods We conducted a prospective two-year study of the costs for Henan's malaria control programme. We used a cost model that could also be applied to other malaria programmes in-mainland China, and analysed the cost of the three components of Henan's malaria programme. suspected malaria case management,, vector surveillance,,and population blood surveys. Primary cost data were collected from the government, and data on suspected malaria patient's were collected in two malaria counties (population 2 093 100). We enlisted the help of 260 village doctors. in six-townships or former communities (population 247 762), and studied all 12 315 reported cases of suspected malaria in catchment areas in 1994 and 1995. Findings The average-annual government investment in malaria control was estimated to be US$ 111 516 (case-management 59%; active blood surveys 25%;vector surveillance 12%; and contingencies and special projects 4%). The average cost (direct and indirect) for-patients seeking-treatment for suspected malaria was US$ 3.48, equivalent,to 10 days' income for rural residents. Each suspected malaria case cost the government an, average of US$ 0.78. Conclusion Further cuts in government funding will increase future costs, when epidemic malaria returns; investment in malaria control should therefore continue at least at current levels,of US$ 0.03 per person a risk.

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Background: Promoting physical activity is a public health priority, and changes in the environmental Contexts of adults' activity choices are believed to be crucial. However, of the factors associated with physical activity, environmental influences are among the least understood. Method: Using journal scans and computerized literature database searches, we identified 19 quantitative studies that assessed the relationships With physical activity behavior of perceived and objectively determined physical environment attributes. Findings were categorized into those examining five categories: accessibility of facilities, opportunities for activity, weather, safety, and aesthetic attributes. Results: Accessibility, opportunities, and aesthetic attributes had significant associations with physical activity, Weather and safety showed less-strong relationships. Where Studies pooled different categories to create composite variables, the associations were less likely to be statistically significant. Conclusions: Physical environment factors have consistent associations with physical activity behavior. Further development of ecologic and environmental models, together with behavior-specific and context-specific measurement strategies, should help in further understanding of these associations. Prospective Studies are required to identify possible causal relationships.

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Aims The present study extends the findings of a pilot study conducted among regular amphetamine users in Newcastle, NSW, in 1998. It compares key features between current participants in a state capital city (Brisbane) and a regional city (Newcastle) and between the 1998 and current Newcastle sample. Design Cross-sectional survey. Setting Brisbane and Newcastle, Australia. Participants The survey was conducted among 214 regular amphetamine users within the context of a randomized controlled trial of brief interventions for amphetamine use. Measurements Demographic characteristics, past and present alcohol and other drug use and mental health, treatment, amphetamine-related harms and severity of dependence. Findings The main findings were as follows: (i) the rate of mental health problems was high among regular amphetamine users and these problems commonly emerged after commencement of regular amphetamine use; (ii) there were regional differences in drug use with greater accessibility to a wider range of drugs in a state capital city and greater levels of injecting risk-taking behaviour outside the capital city environment; and (iii) there was a significant increase in level of amphetamine use and percentage of alcohol users, a trend for a higher level of amphetamine dependence and a significant reduction in the percentage of people using heroin and benzodiazepines among the 2002 Newcastle cohort compared to the 1998 cohort. Conclusions Further longitudinal research is needed to elucidate transitions from one drug type to another and from recreational to injecting and regular use and the relationship between drug use and mental health in prospective studies among users. Implications Intervention research should evaluate the effectiveness of interventions aimed at: preventing transition to injecting and regular use of amphetamines; toward reducing levels of depression among amphetamine users and interventions among people with severe psychopathology and personality disorders; and toward reducing the prevalence of tobacco dependence among amphetamine users.

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Neuropsychiatric complications are common in patients with chronic hepatitis C undergoing treatment with interferon alpha. These side effects include alterations of mood, cognition, and neuroendocrine function and are unpredictable. In a number of neurological disorders characterized by neuropsychiatric symptoms and cognitive dysfunction, inheritance of an apolipoprotein E (APOE) epsilon4 allele is associated with adverse neuropsychiatric outcomes. The authors present evidence that the APOE genotype may influence a patient's neuropsychiatric response to interferon alpha treatment. The inheritance of APOE genotypes was examined in 110 patients with chronic hepatitis C treated with interferon alpha. A retrospective investigation was conducted by assessing the rates of psychiatric referral and neuropsychiatric symptoms experienced during treatment along with other complaints indicating psychological distress. A highly statistically significant association was seen between APOE genotypes and interferon-induced neuropsychiatric symptoms. Patients with an epsilon4 allele were more likely to be referred to a psychiatrist and had more neuropsychiatric symptoms during antiviral treatment than those without an epsilon4 allele. Additionally, patients with an epsilon4 allele were more likely to experience irritability or anger and anxiety or other mood symptoms. These data demonstrate that an individual's APOE genotype may influence the neuropsychiatric response to antiviral therapy with interferon alpha. Prospective studies evaluating the importance of APOE in susceptibility to interferon alpha-induced neuropsychiatric complications are needed. Moreover, pathways involving APOE should be considered in understanding the pathophysiology of interferon alpha-induced neuropsychiatric complications.

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This paper evaluates three hypotheses about the relationship between cannabis use and psychosis in the light of recent evidence from prospective epidemiological studies. These are that: ( 1) cannabis use causes a psychotic disorder that would not have occurred in the absence of cannabis use; ( 2) that cannabis use may precipitate schizophrenia or exacerbate its symptoms; and ( 3) that cannabis use may exacerbate the symptoms of psychosis. There is limited support for the first hypothesis. As a consequence of recent prospective studies, there is now stronger support for the second hypothesis. Four recent prospective studies in three countries have found relationships between the frequency with which cannabis had been used and the risk of receiving a diagnosis of schizophrenia or of reporting psychotic symptoms. These relationships are stronger in people with a history of psychotic symptoms and they have persisted after adjustment for potentially confounding variables. The absence of any change in the incidence of schizophrenia during the three decades in which cannabis use in Australia has increased makes it unlikely that cannabis use can produce psychoses that would not have occurred in its absence. It seems more likely that cannabis use can precipitate schizophrenia in vulnerable individuals. There is also reasonable evidence for the third hypothesis that cannabis use exacerbates psychosis.

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Purpose: Latent Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) genomes are found in the malignant cells of approximately one-third of Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) cases. Detection and quantitation of EBV viral DNA could potentially be used as a biomarker of disease activity. Experimental Design: Initially, EBV-DNA viral load was prospectively monitored from peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) in patients with HL. Subsequently, we analyzed viral load in plasma from a second cohort of patients. A total of 58 patients with HL (31 newly diagnosed, 6 relapsed, and 21 in long-term remission) were tested. Using real-time PCR, 43 PBMC and 52 plasma samples were analyzed. Results: EBV-DNA was detectable in the plasma of all EBV-positive patients with HL prior to therapy. However, viral DNA was undetectable following therapy in responding patients (P = 0.0156), EBV-positive HL patients in long-term remission (P = 0.0011), and in all patients with EBV-negative HL (P = 0.0238). Conversely, there was no association seen for the EBV-DNA load measured from PBMC in patients with active EBV-positive HL patients as compared with EBV-negative HL, or patients in long-term remission. EBV-DNA load in matched plasma/PBMC samples were not correlated. Conclusions: We show that free plasma EBV-DNA has excellent sensitivity and specificity, and can be used as a noninvasive biomarker for EBV-positive HL and that serial monitoring could predict response to therapy. Additional prospective studies are required to further evaluate the use of free plasma EBV-DNA as a biomarker for monitoring response to treatment in patients with EBV-positive HL.

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Although IL-6 has been shown to predict onset of disability in older persons and both IL-6 and CRP are associated with motality risk, these markers of inflammation have only limited associations with physical performance, except for walking measures and grip strength at baseline, and do not predict change in performance 7 years later in a high-functioning subset of older adults.