Population monitoring for kangaroo management

In wildlife management, the program of monitoring will depend on the management objective. If the objective is damage mitigation, then ideally it is damage that should be monitored. Alternatively, population size (N) can be used as a surrogate for damage, but the relationship between N and damage obviously needs to be known. If the management objective is a sustainable harvest, then the system of monitoring will depend on the harvesting strategy. In general, the harvest strategy in all states has been to offer a quota that is a constant proportion of population size. This strategy has a number of advantages over alternative strategies, including a low risk of over- or underharvest in a stochastic environment, simplicity, robustness to bias in population estimates and allowing harvest policy to be proactive rather than reactive. However, the strategy requires an estimate of absolute population size that needs to be made regularly for a fluctuating population. Trends in population size and in various harvest statistics, while of interest, are secondary. This explains the large research effort in further developing accurate estimation methods for kangaroo populations. Direct monitoring on a large scale is costly. Aerial surveys are conducted annually at best, and precision of population estimates declines with the area over which estimates are made. Management at a fine scale (temporal or spatial) therefore requires other monitoring tools. Indirect monitoring through harvest statistics and habitat models, that include rainfall or a greenness index from satellite imagery, may prove useful.

Bayesian inferences on the recent island colonization history by the bird Zosterops lateralis lateralis

The founding of new populations by small numbers of colonists has been considered a potentially important mechanism promoting evolutionary change in island populations. Colonizing species, such as members of the avian species complex Zosterops lateralis, have been used to support this idea. A large amount of background information on recent colonization history is available for one Zosterops subspecies, Z. lateralis lateralis, providing the opportunity to reconstruct the population dynamics of its colonization sequence. We used a Bayesian approach to combine historical and demographic information available on Z. l. lateralis with genotypic data from six microsatellite loci, and a rejection algorithm to make simultaneous inferences on the demographic parameters describing the recent colonization history of this subspecies in four southwest Pacific islands. Demographic models assuming mutation–drift equilibrium or a large number of founders were better supported than models assuming founder events for three of four recently colonized island populations. Posterior distributions of demographic parameters supported (i) a large stable effective population size of several thousands individuals with point estimates around 4000–5000; (ii) a founder event of very low intensity with a large effective number of founders around 150–200 individuals for each island in three of four islands, suggesting the colonization of those islands by one flock of large size or several flocks of average size; and (iii) a founder event of higher intensity on Norfolk Island with an effective number of founders around 20 individuals, suggesting colonization by a single flock of moderate size. Our inferences on demographic parameters, especially those on the number of founders, were relatively insensitive to the precise choice of prior distributions for microsatellite mutation processes and demographic parameters, suggesting that our analysis provides a robust description of the recent colonization history of the subspecies.

Floral structure, breeding system and fruit-set in the threatened sub-shrub Tetratheca juncea Smith (Tremandraceae)

Tetratheca juncea Smith (Tremandraceae) has undergone a range contraction of approx. 50 km in the last 100 years and is now listed as a vulnerable sub-shrub restricted to the central and north coast regions of New South Wales, Australia. There are approx. 250 populations in a 110 km north-south distribution and populations are usually small with fewer than 50 plants/clumps. The reproductive ecology of the species was studied to determine why seed-set is reportedly rare. Flowers are bisexual, odourless and nectarless. Flowers are presented dependentally and there are eight stamens recurved around the pistil. Anthers are poricidal, contain viable pollen and basally contain a deep-red tapetal fluid that is slightly oily. Thus flowers are presented for buzz pollinators, although none were observed at flowers during our study. The species was found to be facultatively xenogamous with only one in 50 glasshouse flowers setting seed autogamously, i.e. without pollinator assistance. Field studies revealed fertile fruit in 24 populations but production varied significantly across sites from exceedingly low (0.6 fruits per plant clump) to low (17 fruits per plant clump). Fruit-set ranged from 0 to 65%, suggesting that pollen vectors exist or that autogamy levels in the field are variable and higher than glasshouse results. Fruit production did not vary with population size, although in three of the five populations in the south-west region more than twice as much fruit was produced as in populations elsewhere. A moderately strong relationship between foliage volume and fruit : flower ratios suggests that bigger plants may be more attractive than smaller plants to pollinators. A review of Tetratheca pollination ecology revealed that several species are poorly fecund and pollinators are rare. The habitat requirements for Tetratheca, a genus of many rare and threatened species, is discussed. (C) 2003 Annals of Botany Company.

Factors affecting the success of translocations of the black-faced impala in Namibia

This study analysed 21 translocations of the vulnerable black-faced impala (Aepyceros melampus petersi) to 20 Namibian game farms that occurred between 1970 and 2001, seeking characteristics of the translocated populations and the release sites that significantly correlated with the success of the translocations. Characteristics considered were: initial population size; presence of cheetah and leopard; area; habitat type; occurrence within the historical range of the subspecies and occurrence of trophy hunting. Success of translocations was described by whether the population had a positive growth rate. The success rate of translocations of black-faced impala (62%) was higher than shown in other studies of vertebrate translocations. Initial population size was paramount to the success of translocations. Releases of larger populations were more likely to lead to positive population growth rates than were releases of small populations. The presence of cheetah also influenced the success of translocated populations. In the presence of cheetah, small populations translocated to game farms were significantly less likely to be viable than larger populations. Recommendations for the management of this vulnerable antelope include introducing large initial populations, ideally more than 15 animals, rather than attempting to eliminate cheetah following translocations of impala. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Limited effect of anthropogenic habitat fragmentation on molecular diversity in a rain forest skink, Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae

To examine the effects of recent habitat fragmentation, we assayed genetic diversity in a rain forest endemic lizard, the prickly forest skink (Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae), from seven forest fragments and five sites in continuous forest on the Atherton tableland of northeastern Queensland, Australia. The rain forest in this region was fragmented by logging and clearing for dairy farms in the early 1900s and most forest fragments studied have been isolated for 50-80 years or nine to 12 skink generations. We genotyped 411 individuals at nine microsatellite DNA loci and found fewer alleles per locus in prickly forest skinks from small rain forest fragments and a lower ratio of allele number to allele size range in forest fragments than in continuous forest, indicative of a decrease in effective population size. In contrast, and as expected for populations with small neighbourhood sizes, neither heterozygosity nor variance in allele size differed between fragments and sites in continuous forests. Considering measures of among population differentiation, there was no increase in F-ST among fragments and a significant isolation by distance pattern was identified across all 12 sites. However, the relationship between genetic (F-ST) and geographical distance was significantly stronger for continuous forest sites than for fragments, consistent with disruption of gene flow among the latter. The observed changes in genetic diversity within and among populations are small, but in the direction predicted by the theory of genetic erosion in recently fragmented populations. The results also illustrate the inherent difficulty in detecting genetic consequences of recent habitat fragmentation, even in genetically variable species, and especially when effective population size and dispersal rates are low.

Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

High nuclear genetic diversity, high levels of outcrossing and low differentiation among remnant populations of Quercus petraea at the margin of its range in Ireland

Background and Aims Quercus petraea colonized Ireland after the last glaciation from refugia on mainland Europe. Deforestation. however. beginning in Neolithic times, has resulted in small, scattered forest fragments, now covering less than 12 000 ha. Methods Plastid (three fragments) and microsatellite variation (13 loci) were characterized in seven Irish populations sampled along a north-south gradient. Using Bayesian approaches and Wright's F-statistics, the effects of colonization and fragmentation on the genetic structure and mating patterns of extant oak populations were investigated. Key-Results All Populations possessed cytotypes common to the Iberian Peninsula. Despite the distance from the refugial core and the extensive deforestation in Ireland, nuclear genetic variation was high and comparable to mainland Europe. Low population differentiation was observed within Ireland and populations showed no evidence for isolation by distance. As expected of a marker with an effective Population size of one-quarter relative to the nuclear genome, plastid variation indicated higher differentiation. Individual inbreeding coefficients indicated high levels of outcrossing. Conclusions Consistent with a large effective Population size in the historical migrant gene pool and/or with high gene flow among populations, high within-population diversity and low population differentiation was observred within Ireland. It is proposed that native Q. petraea populations in Ireland share a common phylogeographic history and that the present genetic structure does not reflect founder effects. (C) 2004 Annals of Botany Company.

Extinction times for a general birth, death and catastrophe process

The birth, death and catastrophe process is an extension of the birth-death process that incorporates the possibility of reductions in population of arbitrary size. We will consider a general form of this model in which the transition rates are allowed to depend on the current population size in an arbitrary manner. The linear case, where the transition rates are proportional to current population size, has been studied extensively. In particular, extinction probabilities, the expected time to extinction, and the distribution of the population size conditional on nonextinction (the quasi-stationary distribution) have all been evaluated explicitly. However, whilst these characteristics are of interest in the modelling and management of populations, processes with linear rate coefficients represent only a very limited class of models. We address this limitation by allowing for a wider range of catastrophic events. Despite this generalisation, explicit expressions can still be found for the expected extinction times.

The effects of habitat fragmentation due to forestry plantation establishment on the demography and genetic variation of a marsupial carnivore, Antechinus agilis

We conducted a demographic and genetic study to investigate the effects of fragmentation due to the establishment of an exotic softwood plantation on populations of a small marsupial carnivore, the agile antechinus (Antechinus agilis), and the factors influencing the persistence of those populations in the fragmented habitat. The first aspect of the study was a descriptive analysis of patch occupancy and population size, in which we found a patch occupancy rate of 70% among 23 sites in the fragmented habitat compared to 100% among 48 sites with the same habitat characteristics in unfragmented habitat. Mark-recapture analyses yielded most-likely population size estimates of between 3 and 85 among the 16 occupied patches in the fragmented habitat. Hierarchical partitioning and model selection were used to identify geographic and habitat-related characteristics that influence patch occupancy and population size. Patch occupancy was primarily influenced by geographic isolation and habitat quality (vegetation basal area). The variance in population size among occupied sites was influenced primarily by forest type (dominant Eucalyptus species) and, to a lesser extent, by patch area and topographic context (gully sites had larger populations). A comparison of the sex ratios between the samples from the two habitat contexts revealed a significant deficiency of males in the fragmented habitat. We hypothesise that this is due to male-biased dispersal in an environment with increased dispersal-associated mortality. The population size and sex ratio data were incorporated into a simulation study to estimate the proportion of genetic diversity that would have been lost over the known timescale since fragmentation if the patch populations had been totally isolated. The observed difference in genetic diversity (gene diversity and allelic richness at microsatellite and mitochondrial markers) between 16 fragmented and 12 unfragmented sites was extremely low and inconsistent with the isolation of the patch populations. Our results show that although the remnant habitat patches comprise approximately 2% of the study area, they can support non-isolated populations. However, the distribution of agile antechinus populations in the fragmented system is dependent on habitat quality and patch connectivity. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A framework of lessons learned from community-based marine reserves and its effectiveness in guiding a new coastal management initiative in the Philippines

Community-based coastal resource management has been widely applied within the Philippines. However, small-scale community-based reserves are often inefficient owing to management inadequacies arising because of a lack of local support or enforcement or poor design. Because there are many potential pitfalls during the establishment of even small community-based reserves, it is important for coastal managers, communities, and facilitating institutions to have access to a summary of the key factors for success. Reviewing relevant literature, we present a framework of lessons learned during the establishment of protected areas, mainly in the Philippines. The framework contains summary guidance on the importance of (1) an island location, (2) small community population size, (3) minimal effect of land-based development, (4) application of a bottom-up approach, (5) an external facilitating institution, (6) acquisition of title, (7) use of a scientific information database, (8) stakeholder involvement, (9) the establishment of legislation, (10) community empowerment, (11) alternative livelihood schemes, (12) surveillance, (13) tangible management results, (14) continued involvement of external groups after reserve establishment, and (15) small-scale project expansion. These framework components guided the establishment of a community-based protected area at Danjugan Island, Negros Occidental, Philippines. This case study showed that the framework was a useful guide that led to establishing and implementing a community-based marine reserve. Evaluation of the reserve using standard criteria developed for the Philippines shows that the Danjugan Island protected area can be considered successful and sustainable. At Danjugan Island, all of the lessons synthesized in the framework were important and should be considered elsewhere, even for relatively small projects. As shown in previous projects in the Philippines, local involvement and stewardship of the protected area appeared particularly important for its successful implementation. The involvement of external organizations also seemed to have a key role in the success of the Danjugan Island project by guiding local decision-makers in the sociobiological principles of establishing protected areas. However, the relative importance of each component of the framework will vary between coastal management initiatives both within the Philippines and across the wider Asian region.

Genetic resource impacts of habitat loss and degradation; reconciling empirical evidence and predicted theory for neotropical trees

The theoretical impacts of anthropogenic habitat degradation on genetic resources have been well articulated. Here we use a simulation approach to assess the magnitude of expected genetic change, and review 31 studies of 23 neotropical tree species to assess whether empirical case studies conform to theory. Major differences in the sensitivity of measures to detect the genetic health of degraded populations were obvious. Most studies employing genetic diversity (nine out of 13) found no significant consequences, yet most that assessed progeny inbreeding (six out of eight), reproductive output (seven out of 10) and fitness (all six) highlighted significant impacts. These observations are in line with theory, where inbreeding is observed immediately following impact, but genetic diversity is lost slowly over subsequent generations, which for trees may take decades. Studies also highlight the ecological, not just genetic, consequences of habitat degradation that can cause reduced seed set and progeny fitness. Unexpectedly, two studies examining pollen flow using paternity analysis highlight an extensive network of gene flow at smaller spatial scales (less than 10 km). Gene flow can thus mitigate against loss of genetic diversity and assist in long-term population viability, even in degraded landscapes. Unfortunately, the surveyed studies were too few and heterogeneous to examine concepts of population size thresholds and genetic resilience in relation to life history. Future suggested research priorities include undertaking integrated studies on a range of species in the same landscapes; better documentation of the extent and duration of impact; and most importantly, combining neutral marker, pollination dynamics, ecological consequences, and progeny fitness assessment within single studies.

Decreased relatedness between male prickly forest skinks (Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae) in habitat fragments

In species with low levels of dispersal the chance of closely related individuals breeding may be a potential problem; sex-biased dispersal is a mechanism that may decrease the possibility of cosanguineous mating. Fragmentation of the habitat in which a species lives may affect mechanisms such as sex-biased dispersal, which may in turn exacerbate more direct effects of fragmentation such as decreasing population size that may lead to inbreeding depression. Relatedness statistics calculated using microsatellite DNA data showed that rainforest fragmentation has had an effect on the patterns of dispersal in the prickly forest skink (Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae), a rainforest endemic of the Wet Tropics of north eastern Australia. A lower level of relatedness was found in fragments compared to continuous forest sites due to a significantly lower level of pairwise relatedness between males in rainforest fragments. The pattern of genetic relatedness between sexes indicates the presence of male-biased dispersal in this species, with a stronger pattern detected in populations in rainforest fragments. Male prickly forest skinks may have to move further in fragmented habitat in order to find mates or suitable habitat logs.

Sociality and the rate of molecular evolution

The molecular clock does not tick at a uniform rate in all taxa but maybe influenced by species characteristics. Eusocial species (those with reproductive division of labor) have been predicted to have faster rates of molecular evolution than their nonsocial relatives because of greatly reduced effective population size; if most individuals in a population are nonreproductive and only one or few queens produce all the offspring, then eusocial animals could have much lower effective population sizes than their solitary relatives, which should increase the rate of substitution of nearly neutral mutations. An earlier study reported faster rates in eusocial honeybees and vespid wasps but failed to correct for phylogenetic nonindependence or to distinguish between potential causes of rate variation. Because sociality has evolved independently in many different lineages, it is possible to conduct a more wide-ranging study to test the generality of the relationship. We have conducted a comparative analysis of 25 phylogenetically independent pairs of social lineages and their nonsocial relatives, including bees, wasps, ants, termites, shrimps, and mole rats, using a range of available DNA sequences (mitochondrial and nuclear DNA coding for proteins and RNAs, and nontranslated sequences). By including a wide range of social taxa, we were able to test whether there is a general influence of sociality on rates of molecular evolution and to test specific predictions of the hypothesis: (1) that social species have faster rates because they have reduced effective population sizes; (2) that mitochondrial genes would show a greater effect of sociality than nuclear genes; and (3) that rates of molecular evolution should be correlated with the degree of sociality. We find no consistent pattern in rates of molecular evolution between social and nonsocial lineages and no evidence that mitochondrial genes show faster rates in social taxa. However, we show that the most highly eusocial Hymenoptera do have faster rates than their nonsocial relatives. We also find that social parasites (that utilize the workers from related species to produce their own offspring) have faster rates than their social relatives, which is consistent with an effect of lower effective population size on rate of molecular evolution. Our results illustrate the importance of allowing for phylogenetic nonindependence when conducting investigations of determinants of variation in rate of molecular evolution.