Is mortality from heart failure increasing in Australia? An analysis of official data on mortality for 1997-2003

Objective To assess whether trends in mortality from heart failure(HF) in Australia are due to a change in awareness of the condition or real changes in its epidemiology. Methods We carried out a retrospective analysis of official data on national mortality data between 1997 and 2003. A death was attributed to HF if the death certificate mentioned HF as either the underlying cause of death (UCD) or among the contributory factors. Findings From a total of 907 242 deaths, heart failure was coded as the UCD for 29 341 (3.2%) and was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate in 135 268 (14.9%). Between 1997 and 2003, there were decreases in the absolute numbers of deaths and in the age-specific and age-standardized mortality rates for HF either as UCD or mentioned anywhere for both sexes. HF was mentioned for 24.6% and 17.8% of deaths attributed to ischaemic heart disease and circulatory disease, respectively, and these proportions remained unchanged over the period of study. In addition, HF as UCD accounted for 8.3% of deaths attributed to circulatory disease and this did not change materially from 1997 to 2003. Conclusion The decline in mortality from HF measured as either number of deaths or rate probably reflects a real change in the epidemiology of HF. Population-based studies are required to determine accurately the contributions of changes in incidence, survival and demographic factors to the evolving epidemiology of HF.

Evaluation of NHMRC funded research completed in 1992, 1997 and 2003: gains in knowledge, health and wealth

Objective: To report on strategies for, and outcomes of, evaluation of knowledge (publications), health and wealth (commercial) gains from medical research funded by the Australian Government through the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC). Design and methods: End-of-grant reports submitted by researchers within 6 months of completion of NHMRC funded project grants which terminated in 2003 were used to capture self-reported publication number, health and wealth gains. Self-reported gains were also examined in retrospective surveys of grants completed in 1992 and 1997 and awards primarily supporting people (“people awards”) held between 1992 and 2002. Results: The response rate for the 1992 sample was too low for meaningful analysis. The mean number of publications per grant in the basic biomedical, clinical and health services research areas was very similar in 1997 and 2003. The publication output for population health was somewhat higher in the 2003 than in the 1997 analysis. For grants completed in 1997, 24% (31/131) affected clinical practice; 14% (18/131) public health practice; 9% (12/131) health policy; and 41% (54/131) had commercial potential with 20% (26/131) resulting in patents. Most respondents (89%) agreed that NHMRC people awards improved their career prospects. Interpretation is limited by the relatively low response rates (50% or less). Conclusions: A mechanism has been developed for ongoing assessment of NHMRC funded research. This process will improve accountability to the community and to government, and refine current funding mechanisms to most efficiently deliver health and economic returns for Australia.