Ground water model calibration using pilot points and regularization

Use of nonlinear parameter estimation techniques is now commonplace in ground water model calibration. However, there is still ample room for further development of these techniques in order to enable them to extract more information from calibration datasets, to more thoroughly explore the uncertainty associated with model predictions, and to make them easier to implement in various modeling contexts. This paper describes the use of pilot points as a methodology for spatial hydraulic property characterization. When used in conjunction with nonlinear parameter estimation software that incorporates advanced regularization functionality (such as PEST), use of pilot points can add a great deal of flexibility to the calibration process at the same time as it makes this process easier to implement. Pilot points can be used either as a substitute for zones of piecewise parameter uniformity, or in conjunction with such zones. In either case, they allow the disposition of areas of high and low hydraulic property value to be inferred through the calibration process, without the need for the modeler to guess the geometry of such areas prior to estimating the parameters that pertain to them. Pilot points and regularization can also be used as an adjunct to geostatistically based stochastic parameterization methods. Using the techniques described herein, a series of hydraulic property fields can be generated, all of which recognize the stochastic characterization of an area at the same time that they satisfy the constraints imposed on hydraulic property values by the need to ensure that model outputs match field measurements. Model predictions can then be made using all of these fields as a mechanism for exploring predictive uncertainty.

Optimal debt, endogenous fertility, and human capital externalities in a model with altruistic bequests

and human capital externalities. Because of such externalities, education investment is too low and fertility is too high. While education subsidies are the conventional means to deal with these problems, we show that the optimal policy also comprises debt even when distortionary taxes are used. The reason is that debt tips the usual trade-off between children's quantity and quality in favor of the latter by increasing the bequest cost of children. The optimal debt-output ratio exceeds 10% for plausible parameterization. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Molecular dynamics study of MscL interactions with a curved lipid bilayer

Mechanosensitivity is a ubiquitous sensory mechanism found in living organisms. The simplest known mechanotransducing mechanism is found in bacteria in the form of the mechanosensitive membrane channel of large conductance, MscL. This channel has been studied extensively using a variety of methods at a functional and structural level. The channel is gated by membrane tension in the lipid bilayer alone. It serves as a safety valve protecting bacterial cells against hypoosmotic shock. MscL of Escherichia coli embedded in bilayers composed of asymmetric amounts of single-tailed and double-tailed lipids has been shown to gate spontaneously, even in the absence of membrane tension. To gain insight into the effect of the lipid membrane composition and geometry on MscL structure, a fully solvated, all-atom model of MscL in a stress-free curved bilayer composed of double- and single-tailed lipids was studied using a 9.5-ns molecular dynamics simulation. The bilayer was modeled as a domed structure accommodating the asymmetric composition of the monolayers. During the course of the simulation a spontaneous restructuring of the periplasmic loops occurred, leading to interactions between one of the loops and phospholipid headgroups. Previous experimental studies of the role of the loops agree with the observation that opening starts with a restructuring of the periplasmic loop, suggesting an effect of the curved bilayer. Because of limited resources, only one simulation of the large system was performed. However, the results obtained suggest that through the geometry and composition of the bilayer the protein structure can be affected even on short timescales.

Swash-aquifer interaction in the vicinity of the water table exit point on a sandy beach

The coupling of sandy beach aquifers with the swash zone in the vicinity of the water table exit point is investigated through simultaneous measurements of the instantaneous shoreline (swash front) location, pore pressures and the water table exit point. The field observations reveal new insights into swash-aquifer coupling not previously gleaned from measurements of pore pressure only. In particular, for the case where the exit point is seaward of the observation point, the pore pressure response is correlated with the distance between the exit point and the shoreline in that when the distance is large the rate of pressure drop is fast and when the distance is small the rate decreases. The observations expose limitations in a simple model describing exit point dynamics which is based only on the force balance on a particle of water at the sand surface and neglects subsurface pressures. A new modified form of the model is shown to significantly improve the model-data comparison through a parameterization of the effects of capillarity into the aquifer storage coefficient. The model enables sufficiently accurate predictions of the exit point to determine when the swash uprush propagates over a saturated or a partially saturated sand surface, potentially an important factor in the morphological evolution of the beach face. Observations of the shoreward propagation of the swash-induced pore pressure waves ahead of the runup limit shows that the magnitude of the pressure fluctuation decays exponentially and that there is a linear increase in time lags, behavior similar to that of tidally induced water table waves. The location of the exit point and the intermittency of wave runup events is also shown to be significant in terms of the shore-normal energy distribution. Seaward of the mean exit point location, peak energies are small because of the saturated sand surface within the seepage face acting as a "rigid lid'' and limiting pressure fluctuations. Landward of the mean exit point the peak energies grow before decreasing landward of the maximum shoreline position.