Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

MHCWeb: Converting a WWW database into a knowledge-based collaborative environment

The World Wide Web (WWW) is useful for distributing scientific data. Most existing web data resources organize their information either in structured flat files or relational databases with basic retrieval capabilities. For databases with one or a few simple relations, these approaches are successful, but they can be cumbersome when there is a data model involving multiple relations between complex data. We believe that knowledge-based resources offer a solution in these cases. Knowledge bases have explicit declarations of the concepts in the domain, along with the relations between them. They are usually organized hierarchically, and provide a global data model with a controlled vocabulary, We have created the OWEB architecture for building online scientific data resources using knowledge bases. OWEB provides a shell for structuring data, providing secure and shared access, and creating computational modules for processing and displaying data. In this paper, we describe the translation of the online immunological database MHCPEP into an OWEB system called MHCWeb. This effort involved building a conceptual model for the data, creating a controlled terminology for the legal values for different types of data, and then translating the original data into the new structure. The 0 WEB environment allows for flexible access to the data by both users and computer programs.

The child of uncertain sex: 17 years of experience

Objective: To review the common clinical presentations, investigations and final diagnosis of children presenting with genital ambiguity. Methodology: Retrospective search of the Royal Children's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia, medical records and personal medical database of one of the authors (MJT) between 1982 and 1999. Results: Fifty-one children aged 0.1-;14 (mean 3.9) years were identified. Twenty-two cases had a 46XX karyotype, and commonly presented with an enlarged phallus (77.2%), urogenital sinus (63.6%) and labioscrotal fold(s) (40.9%). Congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) was the most common final diagnosis (72.7%) . Twenty-nine cases of genital ambiguity had a 46XY karyotype and commonly presented with palpable gonad(s) (75.8%), undescended testes (51.7%), penoscrotal hypospadias (51.7%) and a small phallus (41.3%). Androgen insensitivity and gonadal dysgenesis were the commonest final diagnosis both occurring at a frequency of 17.2%. Conclusions: The results emphasize the importance of CAH as the most common diagnosis in 46XX cases presenting with ambiguous genitalia. Those with 46XY had a wider range of diagnoses. Despite thorough investigation, 23.5% had no definite final diagnosis made.