Potential demand for hedging by Australian wheat producers

The potential for hedging Australian wheat with the new Sydney Futures Exchange wheat contract is examined using a theoretical hedging model parametised from previous studies. The optimal hedging ratio for an 'average' wheat farmer was found to be zero under reasonable assumptions about transaction costs and based on previously published measures of risk aversion. The estimated optimal hedging ratios were found by simulation to be quite sensitive to assumptions about the degree of risk aversion. If farmers are significantly more risk averse than is currently believed, then there is likely to be an active interest in the new futures market.

On the optimal ratio of heavy to light chain genes for efficient recombinant antibody production by CHO cells

Monoclonal antibodies (Mab) are heterotetramers consisting of an equimolar ratio of heavy chain (HC) and light chain (LC) polypeptides. Accordingly, most recombinant Mab expression systems utilize an equimolar ratio of heavy chain (he) to light chain (lc) genes encoded on either one or two plasmids. However, there is no evidence to suggest that this gene ratio is optimal for stable or transient production of recombinant Mab. In this study we have determined the optimal ratio of hc:lc genes for production of a recombinant IgG(4) Mab, cB72.3, by Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells using both empirical and mathematical modeling approaches. Polyethyleneimine-mediated transient expression of cB72.3 at varying ratios of hc:lc genes encoded on separate plasmids yielded an optimal Mab titer at a hc:lc gene ratio of 3:2; a conclusion confirmed by separate mathematical modeling of the Mab folding and assembly process using transient expression data. On the basis of this information, we hypothesized that utilization of he genes at low hc:lc gene ratios is more efficient. To confirm this, cB72.3 Mab was transiently produced by CHO cells at constant he and varying lc gene dose. Under these conditions, Mab yield was increased with a concomitant increase in lc gene dose. To determine if the above findings also apply to stably transfected CHO cells producing recombinant Mab, we compared the intra- and extracellular ratios of HC and LC polypeptides for three GS-CHO cells lines transfected with a 1:1 ratio of hc:lc genes and selected for stable expression of the same recombinant Mab, cB72.3. Intra- and extracellular HC:LC polypeptide ratios ranged from 1:2 to 1:5, less than that observed on transient expression of the same Mab in parental CHO cells using the same vector. In conclusion, our data suggest that the optimal ratio of hc:lc genes used for transient and stable expression of Mab differ. In the case of the latter, we infer that optimal Mab production by stably transfected cells represents a compromise between HC abundance limiting productivity and the requirement for excess LC to render Mab folding and assembly more efficient.

A review of the use of the basic cation saturation ratio and the "ideal" soil

The use of 'balanced' Ca, Mg, and K ratios, as prescribed by the basic cation saturation ratio (BCSR) concept, is still used by some private soil-testing laboratories for the interpretation of soil analytical data. This review aims to examine the suitability of the BCSR concept as a method for the interpretation of soil analytical data. According to the BCSR concept, maximum plant growth will be achieved only when the soil’s exchangeable Ca, Mg, and K concentrations are approximately 65 % Ca, 10 % Mg, and 5 % K (termed the ‘ideal soil’). This ‘ideal soil’ was originally proposed by Firman Bear and co-workers in New Jersey (USA) during the 1940s as a method of reducing luxury K uptake by alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.). At about the same time, William Albrecht, working in Missouri (USA), concluded through his own investigations that plants require a soil with a high Ca saturation for optimal growth. Whilst it now appears that several of Albrecht’s experiments were fundamentally flawed, the BCSR (‘balanced soil’) concept has been widely promoted, suggesting that the prescribed cationic ratios provide optimum chemical, physical, and biological soil properties. Our examination of data from numerous studies (particularly those of Albrecht and Bear, themselves) would suggest that, within the ranges commonly found in soils, the chemical, physical, and biological fertility of a soil is generally not influenced by the ratios of Ca, Mg, and K. The data do not support the claims of the BCSR, and continued promotion of the BCSR will result in the inefficient use of resources in agriculture and horticulture.

Separation and hedging results with state-contingent production

A state-contingent model of production under uncertainty is developed and compared with more traditional models of production under uncertainty. Producer behaviour with both production and price risk, in the presence and in the absence of futures and forward markets, is analysed in this state-contingent framework. Conditions for the optimal hedge to be positive or negative are derived. We also show that, under plausible conditions, a risk-averse producer facing price uncertainty and the ability to hedge price risk will never willingly adopt a nonstochastic technology. New separation results, which hold in the presence of both price and production risk, are then developed. These separation results generalize Townsend's spanning results by reducing the number of necessary forward markets by one.

A hedging point strategy - balancing effluent quality, economy and robustness in the control of wastewater treatment plants

An operational space map is an efficient tool to compare a large number of operational strategies to find an optimal choice of setpoints based on a multicriterion. Typically, such a multicriterion includes a weighted sum of cost of operation and effluent quality. Due to the relative high cost of aeration such a definition of optimality result in a relatively high fraction of the effluent total nitrogen in the form of ammonium. Such a strategy may however introduce a risk into operation because a low degree of ammonium removal leads to a low amount of nitrifiers. This in turn leads to a reduced ability to reject event disturbances, such as large variations in the ammonium load, drop in temperature, the presence of toxic/inhibitory compounds in the influent etc. Hedging is a risk minimisation tool, with the aim to "reduce one's risk of loss on a bet or speculation by compensating transactions on the other side" (The Concise Oxford Dictionary (1995)). In wastewater treatment plant operation hedging can be applied by choosing a higher level of ammonium removal to increase the amount of nitrifiers. This is a sensible way to introduce disturbance rejection ability into the multi criterion. In practice, this is done by deciding upon an internal effluent ammonium criterion. In some countries such as Germany, a separate criterion already applies to the level of ammonium in the effluent. However, in most countries the effluent criterion applies to total nitrogen only. In these cases, an internal effluent ammonium criterion should be selected in order to secure proper disturbance rejection ability.

Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Optimal debt, endogenous fertility, and human capital externalities in a model with altruistic bequests

and human capital externalities. Because of such externalities, education investment is too low and fertility is too high. While education subsidies are the conventional means to deal with these problems, we show that the optimal policy also comprises debt even when distortionary taxes are used. The reason is that debt tips the usual trade-off between children's quantity and quality in favor of the latter by increasing the bequest cost of children. The optimal debt-output ratio exceeds 10% for plausible parameterization. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The transform likelihood ratio method for rare event simulation with heavy tails

We present a novel method, called the transform likelihood ratio (TLR) method, for estimation of rare event probabilities with heavy-tailed distributions. Via a simple transformation ( change of variables) technique the TLR method reduces the original rare event probability estimation with heavy tail distributions to an equivalent one with light tail distributions. Once this transformation has been established we estimate the rare event probability via importance sampling, using the classical exponential change of measure or the standard likelihood ratio change of measure. In the latter case the importance sampling distribution is chosen from the same parametric family as the transformed distribution. We estimate the optimal parameter vector of the importance sampling distribution using the cross-entropy method. We prove the polynomial complexity of the TLR method for certain heavy-tailed models and demonstrate numerically its high efficiency for various heavy-tailed models previously thought to be intractable. We also show that the TLR method can be viewed as a universal tool in the sense that not only it provides a unified view for heavy-tailed simulation but also can be efficiently used in simulation with light-tailed distributions. We present extensive simulation results which support the efficiency of the TLR method.

Fourier-domain optical coherence tomography: optimization of signal-to-noise ratio in full space

Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is an emerging coherence-domain technique capable of in vivo imaging of sub-surface structures at millimeter-scale depth. Its steady progress over the last decade has been galvanized by a breakthrough detection concept, termed spectral-domain OCT, which has resulted in a dramatic improvement of the OCT signal-to-noise ratio of 150 times demonstrated for weakly scattering objects at video-frame-rates. As we have realized, however, an important OCT sub-system remains sub-optimal: the sample arm traditionally operates serially, i.e. in flying-spot mode. To realize the full-field image acquisition, a Fourier holography system illuminated with a swept-source is employed instead of a Michelson interferometer commonly used in OCT. The proposed technique, termed Fourier-domain OCT, offers a new leap in signal-to-noise ratio improvement, as compared to flying-spot OCT systems, and represents the main thrust of this paper. Fourier-domain OCT is described, and its basic theoretical aspects, including the reconstruction algorithm, are discussed. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evidence-based medicine is affordable: The cost-effectiveness of current compared with optimal treatment in rheumatoid and osteoarthritis

Objective. To determine the cost-effectiveness of averting the burden of disease. We used secondary population data and metaanalyses of various government-funded services and interventions to investigate the costs and benefits of various levels of treatment for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and osteoarthritis (OA) in adults using a burden of disease framework. Method. Population burden was calculated for both diseases in the absence of any treatment as years lived with disability (YLD), ignoring the years of life lost. We then estimated the proportion of burden averted with current interventions, the proportion that could be averted with optimally implemented cut-rent evidence-based guidelines, and the direct treatment cost-effectiveness ratio in dollars per YLD averted for both treatment levels. Results. The majority of people with arthritis sought medical treatment. Current treatment for RA averted 26% of the burden, with a cost-effectiveness ratio of $19,000 per YLD averted. Optimal, evidence-based treatment would avert 48% of the burden. with a cost-effectiveness ratio of $12,000 per YLD averted. Current treatment of OA in Australia averted 27% of the burden, with a cost-effectiveness ratio of $25,000 per YLD averted. Optimal, evidence-based treatment would avert 39% of the burden, with an unchanged cost-effectiveness ratio of $25,000 per YLD averted. Conclusion. While the precise dollar costs in each country will differ, the relativities at this level of coverage should remain the same. There is no evidence that closing the gap between evidence and practice would result in a drop in efficiency.

Investigations into an optimal transmission scheme for a MIMO system operating in a ricain fading environment

This paper describes investigations into an optimal transmission scheme for a multiple input multiple output (MIMO) system operating in a Rician fading environment. The considerations are reduced to determining a covariance matrix of transmitted signals which maximizes the MIMO capacity under the condition that the receiver has perfect knowledge of the channel while the transmitter has the information about selected statistical quantities which are measured at the receiver. An optimal covariance matrix, which requires information of the Rice factor and the signal to noise ratio, is determined. The transmission scheme relying on the choice of the proposed covariance matrix outperforms the other transmission schemes which were reported earlier in the literature. The proposed scheme realizes an upper bound limit for the MIMO capacity under arbitrary Rician fading conditions. ©2005 IEEE

Distortion product otoacoustic emissions in children at school entry: A comparison with pure tone screening and tympanometry results

This study examined the test performance of distortion product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAEs) when used as a screening tool in the school setting. A total of 1003 children (mean age 6.2 years, SD = 0.4) were tested with pure-tone screening, tympanometry, and DPOAE assessment. Optimal DPOAE test performance was determined in comparison with pure-tone screening results using clinical decision analysis. The results showed hit rates of 0.86, 0.89, and 0.90, and false alarm rates of 0.52, 0.19, and 0.22 for criterion signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) values of 4, 5, and 11 dB at 1.1, 1.9, and 3.8 kHz respectively. DPOAE test performance was compromised at 1.1 kHz. In view of the different test performance characteristics across the frequencies, the use of a fixed SNR as a pass criterion for all frequencies in DPOAE assessments is not recommended. When compared to pure tone plus tympanometry results, the DPOAEs showed deterioration in test performance, suggesting that the use of DPOAEs alone might miss children with subtle middle ear dysfunction. However, when the results of a test protocol, which incorporates both DPOAEs and tympanometry, were used in comparison with the gold standard of pure-tone screening plus tympanometry, test performance was enhanced. In view of its high performance, the use of a protocol that includes both DPOAEs and tympanometry holds promise as a useful tool in the hearing screening of schoolchildren, including difficult-to-test children.

Characterization of turbulent jets from high-aspect-ratio rectangular nozzles

Turbulent free jets issuing from rectangular slots with various high aspect ratios (15-120) are characterized. The centerline mean and rms velocities are measured using hot-wire anemometry over a downstream distance of up to 160 slot heights at a slot-height-based Reynolds number of 10000. Experimental results suggest that a rectangular jet with sufficiently high aspect ratio (> 15) may be distinguished between three flow zones: an initial quasi-plane-jet zone, a transition zone, and a final quasi-axisymmetric-jet zone. In the quasi-plane-jet zone, the turbulent velocity field is statistically similar, but not identical, to those of a plane jet. (c) 2005 American Institute of Physics.