Urban vulnerability in Sydney: Policy and institutional ambiguities in bushfire protection

Despite the inevitability of the bushfires hazard across the Sydney region, a mismatch exists between reactive technological fixes and proactive social programs which have far-reaching vulnerability and governance consequences. This paper questions the adequacy of current policy and action, revealing contradictions and tensions that expose Sydney's vulnerability and have implications for other Australian cities.

Optimal periodic preventive maintenance policy for leased equipment

For leased equipment the lessor incurs penalty costs for failures occurring over the lease period and for not rectifying such failures within a specified time limit. Through preventive maintenance actions the penalty costs can be reduced but this is achieved at the expense of increased maintenance costs. The paper looks at a periodic preventive maintenance policy which achieves a tradeoff between the penalty and maintenance costs. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal debt, endogenous fertility, and human capital externalities in a model with altruistic bequests

and human capital externalities. Because of such externalities, education investment is too low and fertility is too high. While education subsidies are the conventional means to deal with these problems, we show that the optimal policy also comprises debt even when distortionary taxes are used. The reason is that debt tips the usual trade-off between children's quantity and quality in favor of the latter by increasing the bequest cost of children. The optimal debt-output ratio exceeds 10% for plausible parameterization. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimal reliability improvement for used items sold with warranty

The market for used products is becoming more competitive and dealers of used products use warranty to promote sales as well as to provide assurnace to customers. Offering warranty results in additional costs associated with warranty servicing. This cost can be reduced through actions such as overhaul and upgrade that improves the reliability of the item. This is worthwhile only if the cost of improvement is less than the reduction in the warranty servicing cost. This paper deals with two models to decide on the reliability improvement strategies for used items sold with FRW policy.

Utilising survey data to inform public policy: Comparison of the cost-effectiveness of treatment of ten mental disorders

Background Mental health survey data are now being used proactively to decide how the burden of disease might best be reduced. Aims To study the cost-effectiveness of current and optimal treatments for mental disorders and the proportion of burden avertable by each. Method Data for three affective, four anxiety and two alcohol use disorders and for schizophrenia were compared in terms of cost, burden averted and efficiency of current and optimal treatment. We then calculated the burden unavertable given current knowledge. The unit of health gain was a reduction in the years lived with disability (YLDs). Results Summing across all disorders, current treatment averted 13% of the burden, at an average cost of AUS$30 000 per YLD gained. Optimal treatment at current coverage could avert 20% of the burden, at an average cost of AUS$18 000 per YLD gained. Optimal treatment at optimal coverage could avert 28% of the burden, at AUS$16 000 per YLD gained. Sixty per cent of the burden of mental disorders was deemed to be unavertable. Conclusions The efficiency of treatment varied more than tenfold across disorders. Although coverage of some of the more efficient treatments should be extended, other factors justify continued use of less-efficient treatments for some disorders. Declaration of interest None. Funding detailed in Acknowledgements.

Modelling the population cost-effectiveness of current and evidence-based optimal treatment for anxiety disorders

Background. The present paper describes a component of a large Population cost-effectiveness study that aimed to identify the averted burden and economic efficiency of current and optimal treatment for the major mental disorders. This paper reports on the findings for the anxiety disorders (panic disorder/agoraphobia, social phobia, generalized anxiety disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder and obsessive-compulsive disorder). Method. Outcome was calculated as averted 'years lived with disability' (YLD), a population summary measure of disability burden. Costs were the direct health care costs in 1997-8 Australian dollars. The cost per YLD averted (efficiency) was calculated for those already in contact with the health system for a mental health problem (current care) and for a hypothetical optimal care package of evidence-based treatment for this same group. Data sources included the Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Well-being and published treatment effects and unit costs. Results. Current coverage was around 40% for most disorders with the exception of social phobia at 21%. Receipt of interventions consistent with evidence-based care ranged from 32% of those in contact with services for social phobia to 64% for post-traumatic stress disorder. The cost of this care was estimated at $400 million, resulting in a cost per YLD averted ranging from $7761 for generalized anxiety disorder to $34 389 for panic/agoraphobia. Under optimal care, costs remained similar but health gains were increased substantially, reducing the cost per YLD to < $20 000 for all disorders. Conclusions. Evidence-based care for anxiety disorders would produce greater population health gain at a similar cost to that of current care, resulting in a substantial increase in the cost-effectiveness of treatment.

The net benefit of saving the Asian elephant: a policy and contingent valuation study

Reports results from a contingent valuation (CV) survey of willingness to pay (WTP) for the conservation of the Asian elephant of a sample of urban residents living in three selected housing schemes in Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka. Face-to-face surveys were conducted using an interview schedule (IS). A non-linear logit regression model is used to analyse the respondents' responses for the payment principle questions and to identify the factors that influence their responses. We investigate whether urban residents' WTP for the conservation of elephants is sufficient to compensate farmers for the damage caused by elephants. We find that the beneficiaries (the urban residents) could compensate losers (the fanners in the areas affected by human-elephant conflict, HEC) and be better off than in the absence of elephants in Sri Lanka. Therefore, there is a strong economic case for the conservation of the wild elephant population in Sri Lanka. However, we have insufficient data to determine the optimal level of this elephant population in the Kaldor-Hicks sense. Nevertheless, the current population of elephant in Sri Lanka is Kaldor-Hicks preferable to having none. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Drought policy: a graphical analysis

The standard approach to modelling production under uncertainty has relied on the concept of the stochastic production function. In the present paper, it is argued that a state-contingent production model is more flexible and realistic. The model is applied to the problem of drought policy.

Primary prevention of skin cancer: A review of sun protection in Australia and internationally

The incidence of skin cancer is increasing worldwide. Protecting the skin from the sun by wearing protective clothing, using a sunscreen with appropriate sun protection factor, wearing a hat, and avoiding the sun are recommended as primary preventive activities by cancer agencies. In this paper the recent data relating to skin cancer primary preventive behaviour in Australia and other countries is reviewed. Comparison of the studies in a table format summarizing the methods, objectives, participants, findings and implications may be obtained from the corresponding author. The sun protection knowledge, attitudes and behaviour patterns observed in Australia are similar in other countries, although Australian studies generally, report higher knowledge levels about skin cancer and higher levels of sun protection. The findings suggest that sunscreen is the most frequent method of sun protection used across all age groups, despite recommendations that it should be at? adjunct to other forms of protection. While young children's sun protective behaviour is largely influenced by their parents' behaviours, they are still tinder protected, and sun protective measures such as seeking shade, avoiding the sun and protective clothing need to be emphasized. Adolescents have the lowest skin protection rates of all age groups. Within the adult age range, women and people with sensitive skin were most likely to be using skin protection. However, women were also more likely than men to sunbath deliberately and to use sun-tanning booths. The relationship between skin protection knowledge and attitudes, attitudes towards tanning and skin protection behaviour needs further investigation. Further studies need to include detailed assessments of sunscreen use and application patterns, and future health promotion activities need to focus on sun protection by wearing clothing and seeking shade to avoid increases in the sunburn rates observed to date.

A perspective on Australia's national medicines policy

There is international interest in Australia's health care system for prescription medicines. The issue is particularly topical in Canada with the debate following publication of the Romanow Report into the future of health care in Canada. This Report recommended a new National Drug Agency. Australia has a National Medicines Policy with four arms-quality, safety and efficacy of medicines; equity of access; a viable and responsible pharmaceutical industry; quality use of medicines. The four arms of the Policy are interlinked and interdependent for optimal functioning. In this paper, an overview of how the prescription drug system in Australia works is presented. The manuscript focuses upon specific aspects of the Policy, describing how it functions and some of the processes integral to success, from the viewpoint of the author. The discussion includes some of the advantages of Australia's system for pharmaceuticals as well as some of the problems, as these present opportunities for development and change

Supreme Emergencies and the protection of non-combatants in war

Is it ever justifiable to target non-combatants deliberately? This article assesses Michael Walzer's claim that the deliberate targeting of non-combatants may be justifiable during 'supreme emergencies', a view that has received some support but that has elicited little debate. It argues that the supreme emergencies exception to the prohibition on targeting non-combatants is problematic for at least four reasons. First, its utilitarianism contradicts Walzer's wider ethics of war based on a conception of human rights. Second, the exception may undermine the principle of non-combatant immunity. Third, it is based on a historical fallacy. Finally, it is predicated on a strategic fallacy-the idea that killing noncombatants can win wars. The case for rejecting the exception, however, has been opposed by those who persuasively argue that it is wrong to tie leaders' hands when they confront supreme emergencies. The final part of the article addresses this question and suggests that the principle of proportionality may give political leaders room for manoeuvre in supreme emergencies without permitting them deliberately to target non-combatants.

Optimal strategies in political elections

In the Majoritarian Parliamentary System, the government has a constitutional right to call an early election. This right provides the government a control to achieve its objective to remain in power for as long as possible. We model the early election problem mathematically using opinion polls data as a stochastic process to proxy the government's probability of re-election. These data measure the difference in popularity between the government and the opposition. We fit a mean reverting Stochastic Differential Equation to describe the behaviour of the process and consider the possibility for the government to use other control tools, which are termed 'boosts' to induce shocks to the opinion polls by making timely policy announcements or economic actions. These actions improve the government's popularity and have some impact upon the early-election exercise boundary. © Austral. Mathematical Soc. 2005.

Mobile message services and communications policy

Something of a design after-thought, mobile phone SMS (Short-Message Services) have been enthusiastically adopted by consumers worldwide, who have created a new text culture. SMS is now being deployed to provide a range of services and transactions, as well as playing a critical role in offering an interactive path for television broadcasting. In this paper we offer a case study of a lucrative, new industry developing internationally at the intersection of telecommunications, broadcasting, and information services—namely, premium rate SMS/MMS. To explore the issues at stake we focus on an Australian case study of policy responses to the development of premium rate mobile messaging services in the 2002-2005 period. In the first part, we give a brief history of premium rate telecommunications. Secondly, we characterise premium rate mobile message services and examine their emergence. Thirdly, we discuss the responses of Australian policy-makers and industry to these services. Fourthly, we place the Australian experience in international context, and indicate common issues. Finally, we draw some conclusions from the peregrinations of mobile message services for regulators grappling with communications policy frameworks.