Optimal strategies in political elections

In the Majoritarian Parliamentary System, the government has a constitutional right to call an early election. This right provides the government a control to achieve its objective to remain in power for as long as possible. We model the early election problem mathematically using opinion polls data as a stochastic process to proxy the government's probability of re-election. These data measure the difference in popularity between the government and the opposition. We fit a mean reverting Stochastic Differential Equation to describe the behaviour of the process and consider the possibility for the government to use other control tools, which are termed 'boosts' to induce shocks to the opinion polls by making timely policy announcements or economic actions. These actions improve the government's popularity and have some impact upon the early-election exercise boundary. © Austral. Mathematical Soc. 2005.

Evaluation of a pilot second-opinion child telepsychiatry service

A second-opinion child psychiatry service was piloted for six months in the northern-most two-thirds of Queensland. It provided specialist expertise by telehealth to local multidisciplinary teams of mental health staff. During the study period, 28 videoconferences were performed by the service: nine for administrative purposes, two for educational purposes, and 17 for direct and indirect clinical applications. The mean time between a referral being made and a consultation being performed was 4.7 days (range 1-13), A survey administered to referring and non-referring mental health workers showed that the major barriers to service implementation included the limited allied health applications that were offered, a perceived lack of communication during the implementation phase of the service, and the creation of a new referral network that did not conform to traditional referral patterns in the north of Queensland.

Stakeholder opinion of functional communication activities following traumatic brain injury

Primary objective : To establish a process whereby assessment of functional communication reflects the authentic communication of the target population. The major functional communication assessments available from the USA may not be as relevant to those who reside elsewhere, nor assessments developed primarily for persons who have had a stroke as relevant for traumatic brain injury rehabilitation. Research design : The investigation used the Nominal Group Technique to elicit free opinion and support individuals who have compromised communication ability. A survey mailed out sampled a larger number of stakeholders to test out differences among groups. Methods and procedures : Five stakeholder groups generated items and the survey determined relative 'importance'. The stakeholder groups in both studies comprised individuals with traumatic brain injury and their families, health professionals, third-party payers, employers, and Maori, the indigenous population of New Zealand. Main outcomes and results : There was no statistically significant difference found between groups for 19 of the 31 items. Only half of the items explicitly appear on a well-known USA functional communication assessment. Conclusions : The present study has implications for whether functional communication assessments are valid across cultures and the type of impairment.

Assessing the impacts of grazing levels on bird density in woodland habitat: a Bayesian approach using expert opinion

Many studies on birds focus on the collection of data through an experimental design, suitable for investigation in a classical analysis of variance (ANOVA) framework. Although many findings are confirmed by one or more experts, expert information is rarely used in conjunction with the survey data to enhance the explanatory and predictive power of the model. We explore this neglected aspect of ecological modelling through a study on Australian woodland birds, focusing on the potential impact of different intensities of commercial cattle grazing on bird density in woodland habitat. We examine a number of Bayesian hierarchical random effects models, which cater for overdispersion and a high frequency of zeros in the data using WinBUGS and explore the variation between and within different grazing regimes and species. The impact and value of expert information is investigated through the inclusion of priors that reflect the experience of 20 experts in the field of bird responses to disturbance. Results indicate that expert information moderates the survey data, especially in situations where there are little or no data. When experts agreed, credible intervals for predictions were tightened considerably. When experts failed to agree, results were similar to those evaluated in the absence of expert information. Overall, we found that without expert opinion our knowledge was quite weak. The fact that the survey data is quite consistent, in general, with expert opinion shows that we do know something about birds and grazing and we could learn a lot faster if we used this approach more in ecology, where data are scarce. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Preliminary findings of a systematic review and expert opinion workshop on Biosecurity on cattle farms in the UK

In this paper risk factors for the introduction of IBR, BVD, Salmonella and Johne's disease to cattle farms are reported. Two sources of information were used: literature was searched systematically and an expert opinion workshop was held. The findings from both indicate that direct contact between cattle is an important risk factor. Indirect and occasional contact is considered of less importance. Therefore, in the development of biosecurity programmes for cattle farms emphasis should be put on preventing direct contact with cattle from outside the herd.

Public opinion of a proposed wind farm situated close to a populated area in New Zealand: Results from a cross-sectional study

In accordance with New Zealand’s Resource Management Act 1991, in 2003, electricity generating company Genesis Energy made public its intention to apply for consent to build the Awhitu wind farm. Several community groups claiming to represent the majority opposed this application and in September 2004 consent was declined. The aim was to investigate the attitudes of local community members to the proposed wind farm. A survey was mailed to 500 Franklin residents, systematically selected from the local 2004/2005 telephone directory. Forty questionnaires were returned undelivered. Of the remaining 460, completed questionnaires were returned from 46% (211). Most, 70% (145), residents supported a wind farm being built in their area, with 17% (35) neutral, and only 13% (28) against the farm. There was no statistical difference in respondents’ attitudes between sex, age, or residential proximity to the farm. Respondents listed renewable resource (83%), suitability (78%), and environmental friendliness (76%) as main advantages. Visual unsightliness (24%) and noise pollution (21%) were listed as main perceived disadvantages. Contrary to the assertions of several lobby groups, the majority of local residents support the construction of the Awhitu wind farm. Scientifically robust methods are essential to measure appropriately community attitudes, particularly on contentious issues.

The Opinion Editorial: teaching physiology outside the box

Improving the public understanding of science is an important challenge for the future professional scientists who are our current undergraduates. In this paper, we present a conceptual model that explores the role of mass media as community gatekeepers of new scientific findings. This model frames the benefits for undergraduate science students to learn about media genres so that they can learn to communicate science more effectively to nonprofessional audiences. Informed by this Media Role model, we then detail a novel writing task for undergraduate physiology students, the Opinion Editorial (Op-Ed), and an accompanying Peer Review. The Op-Ed genre was directly taught to the students by a professional journalist. As an assessment task, students presented a recent, highly technical paper as an Op-Ed. This was assessed by both faculty members and peers using a detailed assessment rubric. Most students were able to replicate the features of Op-Eds and attained high grades on their writing tasks. Survey data from final-year physiology students (n = 230) were collected before and after the implementation of the Op-Ed/Peer Review. These indicated that most students were aware of the importance of scientists to effectively communicate their knowledge to nonprofessional audiences, that the Op-Ed writing task was challenging, and that they believed that their ability to write to nonprofessional audiences was improved after explicit teaching and feedback.