Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Spatial and temporal patterns in Australian wheat yield and their relationship with ENSO

Spatial and temporal variability in wheat production in Australia is dominated by rainfall occurrence. The length of historical production records is inadequate, however, to analyse spatial and temporal patterns conclusively. In this study we used modelling and simulation to identify key spatial patterns in Australian wheat yield, identify groups of years in the historical record in which spatial patterns were similar, and examine association of those wheat yield year groups with indicators of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A simple stress index model was trained on 19 years of Australian Bureau of Statistics shire yield data (1975-93). The model was then used to simulate shire yield from 1901 to 1999 for all wheat-producing shires. Principal components analysis was used to determine the dominating spatial relationships in wheat yield among shires. Six major components of spatial variability were found. Five of these represented near spatially independent zones across the Australian wheatbelt that demonstrated coherent temporal (annual) variability in wheat yield. A second orthogonal component was required to explain the temporal variation in New South Wales. The principal component scores were used to identify high- and low-yielding years in each zone. Year type groupings identified in this way were tested for association with indicators of ENSO. Significant associations were found for all zones in the Australian wheatbelt. Associations were as strong or stronger when ENSO indicators preceding the wheat season (April-May phases of the Southern Oscillation Index) were used rather than indicators based on classification during the wheat season. Although this association suggests an obvious role for seasonal climate forecasting in national wheat crop forecasting, the discriminatory power of the ENSO indicators, although significant, was not strong. By examining the historical years forming the wheat yield analog sets within each zone, it may be possible to identify novel climate system or ocean-atmosphere features that may be causal and, hence, most useful in improving seasonal forecasting schemes.

Three putative types of El Nino revealed by spatial variability in impact on Australian wheat yield

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon significantly impacts rainfall and ensuing crop yields in many parts of the world. In Australia, El Nino events are often associated with severe drought conditions. However, El Nino events differ spatially and temporally in their manifestations and impacts, reducing the relevance of ENSO-based seasonal forecasts. In this analysis, three putative types of El Nino are identified among the 24 occurrences since the beginning of the twentieth century. The three types are based on coherent spatial patterns (footprints) found in the El Nino impact on Australian wheat yield. This bioindicator reveals aligned spatial patterns in rainfall anomalies, indicating linkage to atmospheric drivers. Analysis of the associated ocean-atmosphere dynamics identifies three types of El Nino differing in the timing of onset and location of major ocean temperature and atmospheric pressure anomalies. Potential causal mechanisms associated with these differences in anomaly patterns need to be investigated further using the increasing capabilities of general circulation models. Any improved predictability would be extremely valuable in forecasting effects of individual El Nino events on agricultural systems.

Review of tropospheric bomb C-14 data for carbon cycle modeling and age calibration purposes

Comprehensive published radiocarbon data from selected atmospheric records, tree rings, and recent organic matter were analyzed and grouped into 4 different zones (three for the Northern Hemisphere and one for the whole Southern Hemisphere). These C-14 data for the summer season of each hemisphere were employed to construct zonal, hemispheric, and global data sets for use in regional and global carbon model calculations including calibrating and comparing carbon cycle models. In addition, extended monthly atmospheric C-14 data sets for 4 different zones were compiled for age calibration purposes. This is the first time these data sets were constructed to facilitate the dating of recent organic material using the bomb C-14 curves. The distribution of bomb C-14 reflects the major zones of atmospheric circulation.

Geological and trace element evidence for a marine sedimentary environment of deposition and biogenicity of 3.45 Ga stromatolitic carbonates in the Pilbara Craton, and support for a reducing Archaean ocean

Bedded carbonate rocks from the 3.45 Ga Warrawoona Group, Pilbara Craton, contain structures that have been regarded either as the oldest known stromatolites or as abiotic hydrothermal deposits. We present new field and petrological observations and high-precision REE + Y data from the carbonates in order to test the origin of the deposits. Trace element geochemistry from a number of laminated stromatolitic dolomite samples of the c. 3.40 Ga Strelley Pool Chert conclusively shows that they precipitated from anoxic seawater, probably in a very shallow environment consistent with previous sedimentological observations. Edge-wise conglomerates in troughs between stromatolites and widespread cross-stratification provide additional evidence of stromatolite construction, at least partly, from layers of particulate sediment, rather than solely from rigid crusts. Accumulation of particulate sediment on steep stromatolite sides in a high-energy environment suggests organic binding of the surface. Relative and absolute REE + Y contents are exactly comparable with Late Archaean microbial carbonates of widely agreed biological origin. Ankerite from a unit of bedded ankerite–chert couplets from near the top of the stratigraphically older (3.49 Ga) Dresser Formation, which immediately underlies wrinkly stromatolites with small, broad, low-amplitude domes, also precipitated from anoxic seawater. The REE + Y data of carbonates from the Strelley Pool Chert and Dresser Formation contrast strongly with those from siderite layers in a jasper–siderite–Fe-chlorite banded iron-formation from the base of the Panorama Formation (3.45 Ga), which is clearly hydrothermal in origin. The geochemical results, together with sedimentological data, strongly support: (1) deposition of Dresser Formation and Strelley Pool Chert carbonates from Archaean seawater, in part as particulate carbonate sediment; (2) biogenicity of the stromatolitic carbonates; (3) a reducing Archaean atmosphere; (4) ongoing extensive terrestrial erosion prior to ∼3.45 Ga.

Correlations between the satellite-derived seasonal cycle of phytoplankton biomass and aerosol optical depth in the Southern Ocean: Evidence for the influence of sea ice

The relationship between the production of dimethylsulfide (DMS) in the upper ocean and atmospheric sulfate aerosols has been confirmed through local shipboard measurements, and global modeling studies alike. In order to examine whether such a connection may be recoverable in the satellite record, we have analyzed the correlation between mean surface chlorophyll (CHL) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the Southern Ocean, where the marine atmosphere is relatively remote from anthropogenic and continental influences. We carried out the analysis in 5-degree zonal bands between 50 degrees S and 70 degrees S, for the period ( 1997 - 2004), and in smaller meridional sectors in the Eastern Antarctic, Ross and Weddell seas. Seasonality is moderate to strong in both CHL and AOD signatures throughout the study regions. Coherence in the CHL and AOD time series is strong in the band between 50 degrees S and 60 degrees S, however this synchrony is absent in the sea-ice zone (SIZ) south of 60 degrees S. Marked interannual variability in CHL occurs south of 60 degrees S, presumably related to variability in sea-ice production during the previous winter. We find a clear latitudinal difference in the cross correlation between CHL and AOD, with the AOD peak preceding the CHL bloom by up to 6 weeks in the SIZ. This suggests that substantial trace gas emissions ( aerosol precursors) are being produced over the SIZ in spring ( October - December) as sea ice melts. This hypothesis is supported by field data that record extremely high levels of sulfur species in sea ice, surface seawater, and the overlying atmosphere during ice melt.

Differential patterns of Male and Female mtDNA exchange across the Atlantic Ocean in the blue mussel, Mytilus edulis

Comparisons among loci with differing modes of inheritance can reveal unexpected aspects of population history. We employ a multilocus approach to ask whether two types of independently assorting mitochondrial DNAs (maternally and paternally inherited: F- and M-mtDNA) and a nuclear locus (ITS) yield concordant estimates of gene flow and population divergence. The blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, is distributed on both North American and European coastlines and these populations are separated by the waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Gene flow across the Atlantic Ocean differs among loci, with F-mtDNA and ITS showing an imprint of some genetic interchange and M-mtDNA showing no evidence for gene flow. Gene flow of F-mtDNA and ITS causes trans-Atlantic population divergence times to be greatly underestimated for these loci, although a single trans-Atlantic population divergence time (1.2 MYA) can be accommodated by considering all three loci in combination in a coalescent framework. The apparent lack of gene flow for M-mtDNA is not readily explained by different dispersal capacities of male and female mussels. A genetic barrier to M-mtDNA exchange between North American and European mussel populations is likely to explain the observed pattern, perhaps associated with the double uniparental system of mitochondrial DNA inheritance.

Patterns of species diversity in the gastrointestinal helminths of a coral reef fish, Epinephelus merra (Serranidae), from French Polynesia and the south Pacific Ocean

Large-scale patterns of species diversity in the gastrointestinal helminth faunas of the coral reef fish Epinephelus merra (Serranidae) were investigated in French Polynesia and the South Pacific Ocean. The richer barrier reef community in French Polynesia supported richer parasite communities in E. merra than that on the fringing reef. While parasite communities among fish from the same archipelago were similar, differences in potential host species and the distance between archipelagos may have contributed to a qualitative difference in parasite communities between archipelagos. Digenean community diversity in coral reef fishes was greater in the western South Pacific, following similar patterns in free-living species. However, overall species diversity of camallanid nematodes of coral reef fishes does not appear to have been similarly affected.

Suicide in urban New South Wales, Australia 1985-1994: Socio-economic and migrant interactions

Variation of suicide with socio-economic status (SES) in urban NSW (Australia) during 1985-1994, by sex and country or region of birth, was examined using Poisson regression analysis of vital statistics and population data (age greater than or similar to 15 yr). Quintiles of SES were defined by municipality of residence and comparisons of suicide by SES were adjusted for age and country (or region) of birth (COB), and examined by COB. Risk of suicide in females was 28% that of males for all adults and 21% for youth (age 15-24 yr). Suicide risk was lower in males from southern Europe, Middle East and Asia, and higher in northern and eastern European males, compared to the Australian-born. Risks for suicide increased significantly with decreasing SES in males, but not in females. The relationship of male suicide and SES was stronger when controlled for COB. For males, the relative risk of suicide, adjusted for age and COB, was 66% higher in the lowest SES quintile compared to the highest quintile, and 39% higher for youth (age 15-24 yr). For male suicide, the population attributable fraction for SES (less than the highest quintile) was 27%. Analysis of SES differentials in male suicide according to COB indicated a significant inverse suicide gradient in relation to SES for the Australian-born and those burn in New Zealand and the United Kingdom or fire. but not in non-English speaking COB groups, except for Asia. For Australian-born males, suicide risk was 71% higher in the lowest SES group (compared to the highest), adjusted for age. These findings indicate that SES plays an important role in male suicide rates among the Australian-born and migrants from English-speaking countries and Asia, and among youth; but not in female suicide, nor suicide in most non-English speaking migrant groups. Reduction in SES differentials through economic and social policies may reduce male suicide in lower SES groups and should be seen to be at least as important as individual level interventions. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Behavior and interactions of children in cooperative groups in lower and middle elementary grades

The study investigated the behaviors and interactions of children in structured and unstructured groups as they worked together on a 6-week social studies activity each term for 3 school terms. Two hundred and twelve children in Grade 1 and 184 children in Grade 3 participated in the study. Stratified random assignment occurred so that each gender-balanced group consisted of 1 high-, 2 medium-, and 1 low-ability student. The results show that the children in the structured groups were consistently more cooperative and they provided more elaborated and nonelaborated help than did their peers in the unstructured groups. The children in the structured groups in Grade 3 obtained higher reading and learning outcome scores than their peers in the unstructured groups.

Miscibility and specific interactions in blends of poly(4-vinylphenol) and poly(2-ethoxyethyl methacrylate)

The properties of the hydrogen-bonded polymer blends of poly(4-vinylphenol) and poly(2-ethoxyethyl methacrylate) are presented. Spectroscopic techniques such as C-13 solid-state NMR and FT-IR are used to probe specific interactions of the blends at various compositions. Spectral features from both techniques revealed that site-specific interactions are present, consistent with a significant degree of mixing of the blend components. Changes in chemical shift and line shape of the phenolic carbon and carbonyl resonances in the C-13 CPMAS spectra of the blends as a function of composition are interpreted as resulting from changes in the relative intensities of two closely overlapped signals. A quantitative measure of hydrogen-bonded carbonyl groups using C-13 NMR has been obtained which agreed well with the results from FT-IR analyses. It is also shown that C-13 NMR can be used to measure the fraction of hydroxyl groups associated with carbonyl groups, which was not possible previously using FT-IR due to extensive overlapping of bands in the hydroxyl stretching region. The results of measurements of H-1 T-1 and 1H T-1 rho indicate that PVPh and PEEMA are intimately mixed on a scale less than 2-3 nm.

Characterization of the sequential non-covalent and covalent interactions of the antitumour antibiotic hedamycin with double stranded DNA by NMR spectroscopy

Hedamycin, a member of the pluramycin class of antitumour antibiotics, consists of a planar anthrapyrantrione chromophore to which is attached two aminosugar rings at one end and a bisepoxide-containing sidechain at the other end, Binding to double-stranded DNA is known to involve both reversible and non-reversible modes of interaction. As a part of studies directed towards elucidating the structural basis for the observed 5'-pyGT-3' sequence selectivity of hedamycin, we conducted one-dimensional NMR titration experiments at low temperature using the hexadeoxyribonucleotide duplexes d(CACGTG)(2) and d(CGTACG)(2). Spectral changes which occurred during these titrations are consistent with hedamycin initially forming a reversible complex in slow exchange on the NMR timescale and binding through intercalation of the chromophore. Monitoring of this reversible complex over a period of hours revealed a second type of spectral change which corresponds with formation of a non-reversible complex. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multidimensional quantum solitons with nondegenerate parametric interactions: Photonic and Bose-Einstein condensate environments

We consider the quantum theory of three fields interacting via parametric and repulsive quartic couplings. This can be applied to treat photonic chi((2)) and chi((3)) interactions, and interactions in atomic Bose-Einstein condensates or quantum Fermi gases, describing coherent molecule formation together with a-wave scattering. The simplest two-particle quantum solitons or bound-state solutions of the idealized Hamiltonian, without a momentum cutoff, are obtained exactly. They have a pointlike structure in two and three dimensions-even though the corresponding classical theory is nonsingular. We show that the solutions can be regularized with a momentum cutoff. The parametric quantum solitons have much more realistic length scales and binding energies than chi((3)) quantum solitons, and the resulting effects could potentially be experimentally tested in highly nonlinear optical parametric media or interacting matter-wave systems. N-particle quantum solitons and the ground state energy are analyzed using a variational approach. Applications to atomic/molecular Bose-Einstein condensates (BEC's) are given, where we predict the possibility of forming coupled BEC solitons in three space dimensions, and analyze superchemistry dynamics.

A two-dimensional analytical solution of groundwater responses to tidal loading in an estuary and ocean

Previous studies on tidal dynamics of coastal aquifers have focussed on the inland propagation of oceanic tides in the cross-shore direction, a configuration that is essentially one-dimensional. Aquifers at natural coasts can also be influenced by tidal waves in nearby estuaries, resulting in a more complex behaviour of head fluctuations in the aquifers. We present an analytical solution to the two-dimensional depth-averaged groundwater flow equation for a semi-infinite aquifer subject to oscillating head conditions at the boundaries. The solution describes the tidal dynamics of a coastal aquifer that is adjacent to a cross-shore estuary. Both the effects of oceanic and estuarine tides on the aquifer are included in the solution. The analytical prediction of the head fluctuations is verified by comparison with numerical solutions computed using a standard finite-difference method. An essential feature of the present analytical solution is the interaction between the cross- and along-shore tidal waves in the aquifer area near the estuary's entry. As the distance from the estuary or coastline increases, the wave interaction is weakened and the aquifer response is reduced, respectively, to the one-dimensional solution for oceanic tides or the solution of Sun (Sun H. A two-dimensional analytical solution of groundwater response to tidal loading in an estuary, Water Resour Res 1997;33:1429-35) for two-dimensional non-interacting tidal waves. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.