Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

Hemiplegic shoulder pain: defining the problem and its management

Purpose: Hemiplegic shoulder pain can affect up to 70% of stroke patients and can have an adverse impact on rehabilitation outcomes. This article aims to review the literature on the suggested causes of hemiplegic shoulder pain and the therapeutic techniques that can be used to prevent or treat it. On the basis of this review, the components of an optimal management programme for hemiplegic shoulder pain are explored. Method: English language articles in the CINAHL and MEDLINE databases between 1990 and 2000 were reviewed. These were supplemented by citation tracking and manual searches. Results: A management programme for hemiplegic shoulder pain could comprise the following components: provision of an external support for the affected upper limb when the patient is seated, careful positioning in bed, daily static positional stretches, motor retraining and strapping of the scapula to maintain postural tone and symmetry. Conclusions: Research is required to evaluate the effectiveness of the components of the proposed management programme for the prevention and treatment of hemiplegic shoulder pain and to determine in what combination they achieve the best outcomes.

The use of stochastic dynamic programming in optimal landscape reconstruction for metapopulations

A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

Swallowing outcomes following laryngectomy and pharyngolaryngectomy

Objectives: To determine the incidence of dysphagia (defined as the inability to manage a diet of normal consistencies) at hospital discharge and beyond 1 year post-surgery and examine the impact of persistent dysphagia on levels of disability, handicap, and well-being in patients. Design: Retrospective review and patient contact. Setting: Adult acute care tertiary hospital. Patients: The study group, consecutively sampled from January 1993 to December 1997, comprised 55 patients who underwent total laryngectomy and 37 patients who underwent pharyngolaryngectomy with free jejunal reconstruction. Follow-up with 36 of 55 laryngectomy and 14 of 37 pharyngolaryngectomy patients was conducted 1 to 6 years postsurgery. Main Outcome Measures: Number of days until the resumption of oral intake; swallowing complications prior to and following discharge; types of diets managed at discharge and follow-up; and ratings of disability, handicap, and distress levels related to swallowing. Results: Fifty four (98%) of the laryngectomy and 37 (100%) of the pharyngolaryngectomy patients experienced dysphagia at discharge. By approximately 3 years postsurgery, 21 (58%) of the laryngectomy and 7 (50%) of the pharyngolaryngectomy patients managed a normal diet. Pharyngolaryngectomy patients experienced increased duration of nasogastric feeding, time to resume oral intake, and incidence of early complications affecting swallowing. Patients experiencing long-term dysphagia identified significantly increased levels of disability, handicap, and distress. Patients without dysphagia also experienced slight levels of handicap and distress resulting from taste changes and increased durations required to complete meals of normal consistency. Conclusions: The true incidence of patients experiencing a compromise in swallowing following surgery has been underestimated. The significant impact of impaired swallowing on a patient's level of perceived disability, handicap, and distress highlights the importance of providing optimal management of this negative consequence of surgery to maximize the patient's quality of life.

Achieving better in-hospital and after-hospital care of patients with acute cardiac disease

In patients hospitalised with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) and congestive heart failure (CHF), evidence suggests opportunities for improving in-hospital and after hospital care, patient self-care, and hospital-community integration. A multidisciplinary quality improvement program was designed and instigated in Brisbane in October 2000 involving 250 clinicians at three teaching hospitals, 1080 general practitioners (GPs) from five Divisions of General Practice, 1594 patients with ACS and 904 patients with CHF. Quality improvement interventions were implemented over 17 months after a 6-month baseline period and included: clinical decision support (clinical practice guidelines, reminders, checklists, clinical pathways); educational interventions (seminars, academic detailing); regular performance feedback; patient self-management strategies; and hospital-community integration (discharge referral summaries; community pharmacist liaison; patient prompts to attend GPs). Using a before-after study design to assess program impact, significantly more program patients compared with historical controls received: ACS: Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and lipid-lowering agents at discharge, aspirin and beta-blockers at 3 months after discharge, inpatient cardiac counselling, and referral to outpatient cardiac rehabilitation. CHF. Assessment for reversible precipitants, use of prophylaxis for deep-venous thrombosis, beta-blockers at discharge, ACE inhibitors at 6 months after discharge, imaging of left ventricular function, and optimal management of blood pressure levels. Risk-adjusted mortality rates at 6 and 12 months decreased, respectively, from 9.8% to 7.4% (P=0.06) and from 13.4% to 10.1% (P= 0.06) for patients with ACS and from 22.8% to 15.2% (P < 0.001) and from 32.8% to 22.4% (P= 0.005) for patients with CHF. Quality improvement programs that feature multifaceted interventions across the continuum of care can change clinical culture, optimise care and improve clinical outcomes.

Early combination disease modifying antirheumatic drug treatment for rheumatoid arthritis

Most people presenting with rheumatoid arthritis today can expect to achieve disease suppression, can avoid or substantially delay joint damage and deformities, and can maintain a good quality of life. Optimal management requires early diagnosis and treatment, usually with combinations of conventional disease modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs). If these do not effect remission, biological DMARDs may be beneficial. Lack of recognition of the early signs of rheumatoid arthritis, ignorance of the benefits of early application of modern treatment regimens, and avoidable delays in securing specialist appointments may hinder achievement of best outcomes for many patients. Triage for recognising possible early rheumatoid arthritis must begin in primary care settings with the following pattern of presentation as a guide: involvement of three or more joints; early-morning joint stiffness of greater than 30 minutes; or bilateral squeeze tenderness at metacarpophalangeal or metatarsophalangeal joints.

Mapping the emergence of heart disease in a black, urban population in Africa: The Heart of Soweto Study

Background: There is increasing evidence that many populations in the developing world are in epidemiologic transition with the subsequent emergence of more affluent disease states. The Heart of Soweto Study will systematically investigate the emergence of heart disease (HD) in a large urban population in South Africa. Methods: Part of the conurbation of Johannesburg, South Africa, Soweto is a predominantly Black African community of I million individuals. During an initial two year period, all individuals presenting to the local Baragwanath Hospital (3500 beds) with any form of HD will be studied. Demographic and diagnostic coding data in those with pre-established HD will form an abbreviated clinical registry of > 12,000 prevalent cases. Similarly, socio-demographic, clinical and diagnostic data (e.g. echocardiography and ECG) in newly diagnosed patients will form a more detailed clinical registry of > 5000 incident cases. Sub-studies of the relationship between HIV status and H D and the optimal management of chronic heart failure will also be performed. Results: These data will provide a unique insight into the causes and consequences of a broad spectrum of HD-related conditions in a developing world community in epidemiologic transition. Initially documented Population rates, in addition to detailed examinations of the underlying risk factors and causes of HD-related morbidity/mortality will provide an important platform for future stages of the study: a community-based, population screening program and culturally specific primary and secondary programs of care. Conclusion: There is an urgent need to systematically track the emergence of HD in the developing world. Initially involving more than 15,000 individuals, the unique Heart of Soweto Study has the potential to provide a wealth of information in this regard. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Should managed populations be monitored every year?

We often need to estimate the size of wild populations to determine the appropriate management action, for example, to set a harvest quota. Monitoring is usually planned under the assumption that it must be carried out at fixed intervals in time, typically annually, before the harvest quota is set. However, monitoring can be very expensive, and we should weigh the cost of monitoring against the improvement that it makes in decision making. A less costly alternative to monitoring annually is to predict the population size using a population model and information from previous surveys. In this paper, the problem of monitoring frequency is posed within a decision-theory framework. We discover that a monitoring regime that varies according to the state of the system call outperform fixed-interval monitoring This idea is illustrated using data for a red kangaroo (Macropits rufus) population in South Australia. Whether or not one should monitor in a given year is dependent on the estimated population density in the previous year, the uncertainty in that population estimate, and past rainfall. We discover that monitoring is-important when a model-based prediction of population density is very uncertain. This may occur if monitoring has not taken place for several years, or if rainfall has been above average. Monitoring is also important when prior information suggests that the population is near a critical threshold in population abundance. However, monitoring is less important when the optimal management action would not be altered by new information.

Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

Melphalan dosing regimens for management of recurrent melanoma by isolated limb perfusion: Application of a physiological pharmacokinetic model based on melphalan distribution in the isolated perfused rat hindlimb

The optimal dosing schedule for melphalan therapy of recurrent malignant melanoma in isolated limb perfusions has been examined using a physiological pharmacokinetic model with data from isolated rat hindlimb perfusions (IRHP), The study included a comparison of melphalan distribution in IRHP under hyperthermia and normothermia conditions. Rat hindlimbs were perfused with Krebs-Henseleit buffer containing 4.7% bovine serum albumin at 37 or 41.5 degrees C at a flow rate of 4 ml/min. Concentrations of melphalan in perfusate and tissues were determined by high performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection, The concentration of melphalan in perfusate and tissues was linearly related to the input concentration. The rate and amount of melphalan uptake into the different tissues was higher at 41.5 degrees C than at 37 degrees C. A physiological pharmacokinetic model was validated from the tissue and perfusate time course of melphalan after melphalan perfusion. Application of the model involved the amount of melphalan exposure in the muscle, skin and fat in a recirculation system was related to the method of melphalan administration: single bolus > divided bolus > infusion, The peak concentration of melphalan in the perfusate was also related to the method of administration in the same order, Infusing the total dose of melphalan over 20 min during a 60 min perfusion optimized the exposure of tissues to melphalan whilst minimizing the peak perfusate concentration of melphalan. It is suggested that this method of melphalan administration may be preferable to other methods in terms of optimizing the efficacy of melphalan whilst minimizing the limb toxicity associated with its use in isolated limb perfusion.

The effect of resource aggregation at different scales: Optimal foraging behavior of Cotesia rubecula

Resources can be aggregated both within and between patches. In this article, we examine how aggregation at these different scales influences the behavior and performance of foragers. We developed an optimal foraging model of the foraging behavior of the parasitoid wasp Cotesia rubecula parasitizing the larvae of the cabbage butterfly Pieris rapae. The optimal behavior was found using stochastic dynamic programming. The most interesting and novel result is that the effect of resource aggregation within and between patches depends on the degree of aggregation both within and between patches as well as on the local host density in the occupied patch, but lifetime reproductive success depends only on aggregation within patches. Our findings have profound implications for the way in which we measure heterogeneity at different scales and model the response of organisms to spatial heterogeneity.

Optimal patch-leaving behaviour: a case study using the parasitoid Cotesia rubecular

1. Parasitoids are predicted to spend longer in patches with more hosts, but previous work on Cotesia rubecula (Marshall) has not upheld this prediction, Tests of theoretical predictions may be affected by the definition of patch leaving behaviour, which is often ambiguous. 2. In this study whole plants were considered as patches and assumed that wasps move within patches by means of walking or flying. Within-patch and between-patch flights were distinguished based on flight distance. The quality of this classification was tested statistically by examination of log-survivor curves of flight times. 3. Wasps remained longer in patches with higher host densities, which is consistent with predictions of the marginal value theorem (Charnov 1976). tinder the assumption that each flight indicates a patch departure, there is no relationship between host density and leaving tendency. 4. Oviposition influences the patch leaving behaviour of wasps in a count down fashion (Driessen et al. 1995), as predicted by an optimal foraging model (Tenhumberg, Keller & Possingham 2001). 5. Wasps spend significantly longer in the first patch encountered following release, resulting in an increased rate of superparasitism.

The management of rice grown on raised beds with continuous furrow irrigation

A field experiment compared two rice (Oryza sativa L.) cropping systems: paddy or raised beds with continuous furrow irrigation; and trialled four cultivars: Starbonnet, Lemont, Amaroo and Ceysvoni, and one test line YRL39; that may vary in adaptation to growth on raised beds. The grain yield of rice ranged from 740 to 1250 g/m(2) and was slightly greater in paddy than on raised beds. Although there were early growth responses to fertilizer nitrogen on raised beds, the crop nitrogen content at maturity mostly exceeded 20 g/m(2) in both systems, so nitrogen was unlikely to have limited yield. Ceysvoni yielded best in both systems, a result of good post-anthesis growth and larger grain size, although its whole-grain mill-out percentage was poor relative to the other cultivars. Starbonnet and Lemont yielded poorly on raised beds, associated with too few tillers and too much leaf area. When grown on raised beds all cultivars experienced a delay in anthesis resulting in more tillers, leaf area and dry weight at anthesis, and probably a greater yield potential. The growth of rice after anthesis, however, was similar on raised beds and in paddy, so reductions in harvest index and grain size on raised beds were recorded. The data indicated that water supply was not a major limitation to rice growth on raised beds, but slower crop development was an issue that would affect the use of raised beds in a cropping system, especially in rice-growing areas where temperatures are too cool for optimal crop development. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of frozen section for the operative management of endometrial cancer

Objective To assess the accuracy of intra-operative frozen section reports at identifying the features of high risk uterine disease compared with final histopathology. Design Retrospective study. Methods The records, of 460 patients with uterine cancer registered with the Queensland Centre for Gynaecological Cancer between January 1, 1996 and December 31, 1998 were reviewed. Intra-operative frozen section was undertaken in 260 patients with endometrial adenocarcinoma. Frozen section pathology was compared with the final histopathology reports. Inter-observer reliability was assessed using percentage agreement and kappa statistics. Clinical notes were also reviewed to determine if errors resulted in sub-optimal patient care. Results Respectively, tumour grade and depth of myometrial invasion were accurately reported in 88.6% of cases (expected 61.5%, Kappa 0.70) and 94.7% (expected 53.8%, Kappa 0.89). Errors were predominantly attributable to difficulties with respect to the interpretation of tumour grade. The error resulted in the patient receiving sub-optimal surgical management in only I I cases (5.3%) Conclusion Frozen section is accurate at identifying the features of high risk uterine disease in the setting of endometrial cancer and can play an important role in directing primary operative management.