Forecasting with serially correlated regression models

In this article we investigate the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of predictors of regression models with autocorrelated errors. We prove new theorems associated with the predictive efficiency of generalized least squares (GLS) and incorrectly structured GLS predictors. We also establish the form associated with their predictive mean squared errors as well as the magnitude of these errors relative to each other and to those generated from the ordinary least squares (OLS) predictor. A large simulation study is used to evaluate the finite-sample performance of forecasts generated from models using different corrections for the serial correlation.

Thermal stability analysis of organo-silicates, using solid phase microextraction techniques

An analysis of thermal degradation products evolved during the melt processing of organo-layered silicates (OLS) was carried out via the use of a solid phase microextraction (SPME) technique. Two commerical OLSs and one produced in-house were prepared for comparision. The solid phase microextraction technique proved to be a very effective technique for investigating the degradation of the OLS at a specific processing temperature. The results showed that most available OLSs will degrade under typical conditions required for the melt processing of many polymers, including thermoplastic polyurethanes. It is suggested that these degradation products may lead to changes in the structure and properties of the final polymer, particularly in thermoplastic polyurethanes, which seem significantly succeptable to the presence of these products. It is also suggested that many commercially available OLSs are produced in such a way that results in an excess of unbound organic modifier, giving rise to a greater quantity of degradation products. All OLSs where compared and characterised by TGA and GC-MS. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The return to schooling: Estimates from a sample of young Australian twins

This study uses a sample of young Australian twins to examine whether the findings reported in [Ashenfelter, Orley and Krueger, Alan, (1994). 'Estimates of the Economic Return to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins', American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 5, pp.1157-73] and [Miller, P.W., Mulvey, C and Martin, N., (1994). 'What Do Twins Studies Tell Us About the Economic Returns to Education?: A Comparison of Australian and US Findings', Western Australian Labour Market Research Centre Discussion Paper 94/4] are robust to choice of sample and dependent variable. The economic return to schooling in Australia is between 5 and 7 percent when account is taken of genetic and family effects using either fixed-effects models or the selection effects model of Ashenfelter and Krueger. Given the similarity of the findings in this and in related studies, it would appear that the models applied by [Ashenfelter, Orley and Krueger, Alan, (1994). 'Estimates of the Economic Return to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins', American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 5, pp. 1157-73] are robust. Moreover, viewing the OLS and IV estimators as lower and upper bounds in the manner of [Black, Dan A., Berger, Mark C., and Scott, Frank C., (2000). 'Bounding Parameter Estimates with Nonclassical Measurement Error', Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 95, No.451, pp.739-748], it is shown that the bounds on the return to schooling in Australia are much tighter than in [Ashenfelter, Orley and Krueger, Alan, (1994). 'Estimates of the Economic Return to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins', American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 5, pp. 1157-73], and the return is bounded at a much lower level than in the US. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of the learning community in the development of discipline knowledge and generic graduate outcomes

In this paper we describe a study of learning outcomes at a research-intensive Australian university. Three graduate outcome variables (discipline knowledge and skills, communication and problem solving, and ethical and social sensitivity) are analysed separately using OLS regression and comparisons are made of the patterns of unique contributions from four independent variables (the CEQ Good Teaching and Learning Communities Scales, and two new, independent, scales for measuring Teaching and Program Quality). Further comparisons of these patterns are made across the Schools of the university. Results support the view that teaching and program quality are not the only important determinants of students' learning outcomes. It is concluded that, whilst it continues to be appropriate for universities to be concerned with the quality of their teaching and programs, the interactive, social and collaborative aspects of students' learning experiences, captured in the notion of the Learning Community, are also very important determinants of graduate outcomes, and so should be included in the focus of attempts at enhancing the quality of student learning.