Aurifeuillian factorization

The Cunningham project seeks to factor numbers of the form bn±1 with b = 2, 3, . . . small. One of the most useful techniques is Aurifeuillian Factorization whereby such a number is partially factored by replacing bn by a polynomial in such a way that polynomial factorization is possible. For example, by substituting y = 2k into the polynomial factorization (2y2)2+1 = (2y2−2y+1)(2y2+2y+1) we can partially factor 24k+2+1. In 1962 Schinzel gave a list of such identities that have proved useful in the Cunningham project; we believe that Schinzel identified all numbers that can be factored by such identities and we prove this if one accepts our definition of what “such an identity” is. We then develop our theme to similarly factor f(bn) for any given polynomial f, using deep results of Faltings from algebraic geometry and Fried from the classification of finite simple groups.

Blind detection of PAM and QAM in fading channels

This correspondence considers block detection for blind wireless digital transmission. At high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), block detection errors are primarily due to the received sequence having multiple possible decoded sequences with the same likelihood. We derive analytic expressions for the probability of detection ambiguity written in terms of a Dedekind zeta function, in the zero noise case with large constellations. Expressions are also provided for finite constellations, which can be evaluated efficiently, independent of the block length. Simulations demonstrate that the analytically derived error floors exist at high SNR.

Non-additivity of attractive potentials in modeling of N-2 and Ar adsorption isotherms on graphitized carbon black and porous carbon by means of density functional theory

We present a new approach accounting for the nonadditivity of attractive parts of solid-fluid and fluidfluid potentials to improve the quality of the description of nitrogen and argon adsorption isotherms on graphitized carbon black in the framework of non-local density functional theory. We show that the strong solid-fluid interaction in the first monolayer decreases the fluid-fluid interaction, which prevents the twodimensional phase transition to occur. This results in smoother isotherm, which agrees much better with experimental data. In the region of multi-layer coverage the conventional non-local density functional theory and grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations are known to over-predict the amount adsorbed against experimental isotherms. Accounting for the non-additivity factor decreases the solid-fluid interaction with the increase of intermolecular interactions in the dense adsorbed fluid, preventing the over-prediction of loading in the region of multi-layer adsorption. Such an improvement of the non-local density functional theory allows us to describe experimental nitrogen and argon isotherms on carbon black quite accurately with mean error of 2.5 to 5.8% instead of 17 to 26% in the conventional technique. With this approach, the local isotherms of model pores can be derived, and consequently a more reliab * le pore size distribution can be obtained. We illustrate this by applying our theory against nitrogen and argon isotherms on a number of activated carbons. The fitting between our model and the data is much better than the conventional NLDFT, suggesting the more reliable PSD obtained with our approach.

Theory for designing nature reserves for single species

We examine the question of the optimal number of reserves that should be established to maximize the persistence of a species. We assume that the mean time to extinction of a single population increases as a power of the habitat area, that there is a certain amount of habitat to be reserved, and that the aim is to determine how this habitat is most efficiently divided. The optimal configuration depends on whether the management objective is to maximize the mean time to extinction or minimize the risk of extinction. When maximizing the mean time to extinction, the optimal number of independent reserves does not depend on the amount of available habitat for the reserve system. In contrast, the risk of extinction is minimized when individual reserves are equal to the optimal patch size, making the optimal number of reserves linearly proportional to the amount of available habitat. A model that includes dispersal and correlation in the incidence of extinction demonstrates the importance of considering the relative rate at which these two factors decrease with distance between reserves. A small number of reserves is optimal when the mean time to extinction increases rapidly with habitat area or when risks of extinction are high.

Hegemony, Institutionalism and US Foreign Policy: theory and practice in comparative historical perspective

This paper explores the theoretical and policy implications of contemporary American hegemony. A key argument is that the development of US hegemony generally, and the distinctive turn in US foreign policy that has occurred in the wake of 11 September in particular, can best be understood by placing recent events in a comparative and historical framework. The immediate post-World War II order laid the foundations of a highly institutionalised multilateral system that provided key benefits for a number of countries while simultaneously constraining and enhancing US power. An historical reading of US hegemony suggests that its recent unilateralism is undermining the foundations of its power and influence.

Adsorption of argon and nitrogen in cylindrical pores of MCM-41 materials: application of density functional theory

Adsorption of argon and nitrogen at their respective boiling points in cylindrical pores of MCM-41 type silica-like adsorbents is studied by means of a non-local density functional theory (NLDFT), which is modified to deal with amorphous solids. By matching the theoretical results of the pore filling pressure versus pore diameter against the experimental data, we arrive at a conclusion that the adsorption branch (rather than desorption) corresponds to the true thermodynamic equilibrium. If this is accepted, we derive the optimal values for the solid–fluid molecular parameters for the system amorphous silica–Ar and amorphous silica–N2, and at the same time we could derive reliably the specific surface area of non-porous and mesoporous silica-like adsorbents, without a recourse to the BET method. This method is then logically extended to describe the local adsorption isotherms of argon and nitrogen in silica-like pores, which are then used as the bases (kernel) to determine the pore size distribution. We test this with a number of adsorption isotherms on the MCM-41 samples, and the results are quite realistic and in excellent agreement with the XRD results, justifying the approach adopted in this paper.

The effect of life expectancy on fertility, saving, schooling and economic growth: theory and evidence

We construct a simple growth model where agents with uncertain survival choose schooling time, life-cycle consumption and the number of children. We show that rising longevity reduces fertility but raises saving, schooling time and the growth rate at a diminishing rate. Cross-section analyses using data from 76 countries support these propositions: life expectancy has a significant positive effect on the saving rate, secondary school enrollment and growth but a significant negative effect on fertility. Through sensitivity analyses, the effect on the saving rate is inconclusive, while the effects on the other variables are robust and consistent. These estimated effects are decreasing in life expectancy. Copyright The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics 2005.

Equilibrium adsorption in cylindrical mesopores: A modified Broekhoff and de boer theory versus density functional theory

This paper presents a thermodynamic analysis of capillary condensation phenomena in cylindrical pores. Here, we modified the Broekhoff and de Boer (BdB) model for cylindrical pores accounting for the effect of the pore radius on the potential exerted by the pore walls. The new approach incorporates the recently published standard nitrogen and argon adsorption isotherm on nonporous silica LiChrospher Si-1000. The developed model is tested against the nonlocal density functional theory (NLDFT), and the criterion for this comparison is the condensation/evaporation pressure versus the pore diameter. The quantitative agreement between the NLDFT and the refined version of the BdB theory is ascertained for pores larger than 2 nm. The modified BdB theory was applied to the experimental adsorption branch of adsorption isotherms of a number of MCM-41 samples to determine their pore size distributions (PSDs). It was found that the PSDs determined with the new BdB approach coincide with those determined with the NLDFT (also using the experimental adsorption branch). As opposed to the NLDFT, the modified BdB theory is very simple in its utilization and therefore can be used as a convenient tool to obtain PSDs of all mesoporous solids from the analysis of the adsorption branch of adsorption isotherms of any subcritical fluids.

Using extreme value theory to measure value-at-risk for daily electricity spot prices

The recent deregulation in electricity markets worldwide has heightened the importance of risk management in energy markets. Assessing Value-at-Risk (VaR) in electricity markets is arguably more difficult than in traditional financial markets because the distinctive features of the former result in a highly unusual distribution of returns-electricity returns are highly volatile, display seasonalities in both their mean and volatility, exhibit leverage effects and clustering in volatility, and feature extreme levels of skewness and kurtosis. With electricity applications in mind, this paper proposes a model that accommodates autoregression and weekly seasonals in both the conditional mean and conditional volatility of returns, as well as leverage effects via an EGARCH specification. In addition, extreme value theory (EVT) is adopted to explicitly model the tails of the return distribution. Compared to a number of other parametric models and simple historical simulation based approaches, the proposed EVT-based model performs well in forecasting out-of-sample VaR. In addition, statistical tests show that the proposed model provides appropriate interval coverage in both unconditional and, more importantly, conditional contexts. Overall, the results are encouraging in suggesting that the proposed EVT-based model is a useful technique in forecasting VaR in electricity markets. (c) 2005 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The association between number of homework assignments completed during a lifestyle physical activity intervention and scores on transtheoretical measures

An assumption of theory-based physical activity interventions is that active participation positively affects the theoretical constructs upon which the intervention is based. This assumption is rarely tested. This study assessed whether participation, defined as completion of homework, in a lifestyle physical activity intervention was associated with changes over 6 months in constructs the homework addressed: the behavioral and cognitive processes of change, self-efficacy, and decisional balance (the pros and cons). Participants were 244 sedentary adults aged 25 to 75 years. They completed an average of 12 of 20 homework assignments. Those completing at least two-thirds of the homework (n = 113) had greater changes in the theoretical constructs from pretest to posttest than those completing less (n = 90). Post-hoc analyses suggest that completing theory-based homework may impact the processes of change and self-efficacy in lifestyle physical activity interventions and, therefore, are warranted in future interventions.

Signal or Noise? Information Theory and the Novel

In the context of a hostile funding environment, universities are increasingly asked to justify their output in narrowly defined economic terms, and this can be difficult in Humanities or Arts faculties where productivity is rarely reducible to a simple financial indicator. This can lead to a number of immediate consequences that I have no need to rehearse here, but can also result in some interesting tensions within the academic community itself. First is that which has become known as the ‘Science Wars’: the increasingly acrimonious exchanges between scientists and scientific academics and cultural critics or theorists about who has the right to describe the world. Much has already been said—and much remains to be said—about this issue, but it is not my intention to discuss it here. Rather, I will look at a second area of contestation: the incorporation of scientific theory into literary or cultural criticism. Much of this work comes from a genuine commitment to interdisciplinarity, and an appreciation of insights that a fresh perspective can bring to a familiar object. However, some can be seen as cynical attempts to lend literary studies the sort of empirical legitimacy of the sciences. In particular, I want to look at a number of critics who have applied information theory to the literary work. In this paper, I will examine several instances of this sort of criticism, and then, through an analysis of a novel by American author Richard Powers, Three Farmers on Their Way to a Dance, show how this sort of criticism merely reduces the meaningful analysis of a complex literary text.

Chaos Theory as an Approach to Understanding MICE in Time of Crisis

MICE (meetings, incentives, conventions, and exhibitions), has generated high foreign exchange revenue for the economy worldwide. In Thailand, MICE tourists are recognized as ‘quality’ visitors, mainly because of their high-spending potential. Having said that, Thailand’s MICE sector has been influenced by a number of crises following September 11, 2001. Consequently, professionals in the MICE sector must be prepared to deal with such complex phenomena of crisis that might happen in the future. While a number of researches have examined the complexity of crises in the tourism context, there has been little focus on such issues in the MICE sector. As chaos theory provides a particularly good model for crisis situations, it is the aim of this paper to propose a chaos theory-based approach to the understanding of complex and chaotic system of the MICE sector in time of crisis.

Extending the theory of Owicki and Gries with asynchronous message passing

We describe an extension of the theory of Owicki and Gries (1976) to a programming language that supports asynchronous message passing based on unconditional send actions and conditional receive actions. The focus is on exploring the fitness of the extension for distributed program derivation. A number of experiments are reported, based on a running example problem, and with the aim of exploring design heuristics and of streamlining derivations and progress arguments.