An object-oriented neural network approach to short-term traffic forecasting

This paper discusses an object-oriented neural network model that was developed for predicting short-term traffic conditions on a section of the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated through a time-lag recurrent network (TLRN) which was developed for predicting speed data up to 15 minutes into the future. The results obtained indicate that the TLRN is capable of predicting speed up to 5 minutes into the future with a high degree of accuracy (90-94%). Similar models, which were developed for predicting freeway travel times on the same facility, were successful in predicting travel times up to 15 minutes into the future with a similar degree of accuracy (93-95%). These results represent substantial improvements on conventional model performance and clearly demonstrate the feasibility of using the object-oriented approach for short-term traffic prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Globalisation and connectedness: A network approach to international business

There have been recent calls for the field of International Business to retool its routines by becoming genuinely interdisciplinary. This paper takes such an approach by using recent advances in the fields of evolutionary economics and applying them to IB. Evolutionary economists are now viewing the economy as an actual network. Consequently, one the key analytical tools in this approach is network analysis. Some of the basic methods in network analysis are reviewed. The paper then looks at how using these tools might be of use in IB studies. In particular, it outlines fruitful research paths in the areas of globalisation and regionalisation, and the measurement of performance in multi-national firms and alliances. In each case, propositions are put forward which can be analytically tested with the use of network analysis. The paper concludes with a brief outline of a research agenda which utilises this approach in International Business studies.

A learning approach for performance evaluation of local network

In this paper, a novel approach is developed to evaluate the overall performance of a local area network as well as to monitor some possible intrusion detections. The data is obtained via system utility 'ping' and huge data is analyzed via statistical methods. Finally, an overall performance index is defined and simulation experiments in three months proved the effectiveness of the proposed performance index. A software package is developed based on these ideas.

Modeling the fluid-flow-induced stress and collapse in a dendritic network

An analytical approach to the stress development in the coherent dendritic network during solidification is proposed. Under the assumption that stresses are developed in the network as a result of the friction resisting shrinkage-induced interdendritic fluid flow, the model predicts the stresses in the solid. The calculations reflect the expected effects of postponed dendrite coherency, slower solidification conditions, and variations of eutectic volume fraction and shrinkage. Comparing the calculated stresses to the measured shear strength of equiaxed mushy zones shows that it is possible for the stresses to exceed the strength, thereby resulting in reorientation or collapse of the dendritic network.

The young women's network: A case study in community development

While young women have been found to be at additional risk for psychological morbidity after a breast cancer diagnosis, their specific needs in relation to support are not well described. A community development approach was utilized to develop the Young Women's Network, a peer support programme for young women who have been diagnosed with breast cancer that addresses their specific psychological and social needs, Central to this approach was the key role of the target group in both the definition of the problem and the generation of the solutions. This article describes the steps involved in developing this programme and guidelines for health professionals and community members who may wish to replicate either the Young Women's Network or this particular approach to programme development. Copyright (C), 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Efficient simulation of a Tandem Jackson Network

The two-node tandem Jackson network serves as a convenient reference model for the analysis and testing of different methodologies and techniques in rare event simulation. In this paper we consider a new approach to efficiently estimate the probability that the content of the second buffer exceeds some high level L before it becomes empty, starting from a given state. The approach is based on a Markov additive process representation of the buffer processes, leading to an exponential change of measure to be used in an importance sampling procedure. Unlike changes of measures proposed and studied in recent literature, the one derived here is a function of the content of the first buffer. We prove that when the first buffer is finite, this method yields asymptotically efficient simulation for any set of arrival and service rates. In fact, the relative error is bounded independent of the level L; a new result which is not established for any other known method. When the first buffer is infinite, we propose a natural extension of the exponential change of measure for the finite buffer case. In this case, the relative error is shown to be bounded (independent of L) only when the second server is the bottleneck; a result which is known to hold for some other methods derived through large deviations analysis. When the first server is the bottleneck, experimental results using our method seem to suggest that the relative error is bounded linearly in L.

Bistability and switching in the lysis/lysogeny genetic regulatory network of bacteriophage lambda

Bistability and switching are two important aspects of the genetic regulatory network of phage. Positive and negative feedbacks are key regulatory mechanisms in this network. By the introduction of threshold values, the developmental pathway of A phage is divided into different stages. If the protein level reaches a threshold value, positive or negative feedback will be effective and regulate the process of development. Using this regulatory mechanism, we present a quantitative model to realize bistability and switching of phage based on experimental data. This model gives descriptions of decisive mechanisms for different pathways in induction. A stochastic model is also introduced for describing statistical properties of switching in induction. A stochastic degradation rate is used to represent intrinsic noise in induction for switching the system from the lysogenic pathway to the lysis pathway. The approach in this paper represents an attempt to describe the regulatory mechanism in genetic regulatory network under the influence of intrinsic noise in the framework of continuous models. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Incremental EM-based Learning Approach for On-Line Prediction of Hospital Resource Utilization

Objective: Inpatient length of stay (LOS) is an important measure of hospital activity, health care resource consumption, and patient acuity. This research work aims at developing an incremental expectation maximization (EM) based learning approach on mixture of experts (ME) system for on-line prediction of LOS. The use of a batchmode learning process in most existing artificial neural networks to predict LOS is unrealistic, as the data become available over time and their pattern change dynamically. In contrast, an on-line process is capable of providing an output whenever a new datum becomes available. This on-the-spot information is therefore more useful and practical for making decisions, especially when one deals with a tremendous amount of data. Methods and material: The proposed approach is illustrated using a real example of gastroenteritis LOS data. The data set was extracted from a retrospective cohort study on all infants born in 1995-1997 and their subsequent admissions for gastroenteritis. The total number of admissions in this data set was n = 692. Linked hospitalization records of the cohort were retrieved retrospectively to derive the outcome measure, patient demographics, and associated co-morbidities information. A comparative study of the incremental learning and the batch-mode learning algorithms is considered. The performances of the learning algorithms are compared based on the mean absolute difference (MAD) between the predictions and the actual LOS, and the proportion of predictions with MAD < 1 day (Prop(MAD < 1)). The significance of the comparison is assessed through a regression analysis. Results: The incremental learning algorithm provides better on-line prediction of LOS when the system has gained sufficient training from more examples (MAD = 1.77 days and Prop(MAD < 1) = 54.3%), compared to that using the batch-mode learning. The regression analysis indicates a significant decrease of MAD (p-value = 0.063) and a significant (p-value = 0.044) increase of Prop(MAD

Classical simulation of quantum many-body systems with a tree tensor network

We show how to efficiently simulate a quantum many-body system with tree structure when its entanglement (Schmidt number) is small for any bipartite split along an edge of the tree. As an application, we show that any one-way quantum computation on a tree graph can be efficiently simulated with a classical computer.

Transcriptional network dynamics in macrophage activation

Transcriptional regulatory networks govern cell differentiation and the cellular response to external stimuli. However, mammalian model systems have not yet been accessible for network analysis. Here, we present a genome-wide network analysis of the transcriptional regulation underlying the mouse macrophage response to bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Key to uncovering the network structure is our combination of time-series cap analysis of gene expression with in silico prediction of transcription factor binding sites. By integrating microarray and qPCR time-series expression data with a promoter analysis, we find dynamic subnetworks that describe how signaling pathways change dynamically during the progress of the macrophage LPS response, thus defining regulatory modules characteristic of the inflammatory response. In particular, our integrative analysis enabled us to suggest novel roles for the transcription factors ATF-3 and NRF-2 during the inflammatory response. We believe that our system approach presented here is applicable to understanding cellular differentiation in higher eukaryotes. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Paediatric research in emergency departments international collaborative (PREDICT): First steps towards the development of an Australian and New Zealand research network

Paediatric emergency research is hampered by a number of barriers that can be overcome by a multicentre approach. In 2004, an Australia and New Zealand-based paediatric emergency research network was formed, the Paediatric Research in Emergency Departments International Collaborative (PREDICT). The founding sites include all major tertiary children’s hospital EDs in Australia and New Zealand and a major mixed ED in Australia. PREDICT aims to provide leadership and infrastructure for multicentre research at the highest standard, facilitate collaboration between institutions, health-care providers and researchers and ultimately improve patient outcome. Initial network-wide projects have been determined. The present article describes the development of the network, its structure and future goals.

A bayesian artificial neural network method to characterise laminar defects using dynamic measurements

This paper reports on the development of an artificial neural network (ANN) method to detect laminar defects following the pattern matching approach utilizing dynamic measurement. Although structural health monitoring (SHM) using ANN has attracted much attention in the last decade, the problem of how to select the optimal class of ANN models has not been investigated in great depth. It turns out that the lack of a rigorous ANN design methodology is one of the main reasons for the delay in the successful application of the promising technique in SHM. In this paper, a Bayesian method is applied in the selection of the optimal class of ANN models for a given set of input/target training data. The ANN design method is demonstrated for the case of the detection and characterisation of laminar defects in carbon fibre-reinforced beams using flexural vibration data for beams with and without non-symmetric delamination damage.

Cluster analysis of the p53 genetic regulatory network: topology and biology

We describe a network module detection approach which combines a rapid and robust clustering algorithm with an objective measure of the coherence of the modules identified. The approach is applied to the network of genetic regulatory interactions surrounding the tumor suppressor gene p53. This algorithm identifies ten clusters in the p53 network, which are visually coherent and biologically plausible.