Renal function and cardiovascular risk markers in a remote Australian Aboriginal community

Background. Australian Aborigines living in remote areas have exceedingly high rates of renal failure together with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. To examine the basis of this association, we studied markers of renal function and cardiovascular (CV) risk in a coastal Aboriginal community in a remote area of the Northern Territory of Australia. End-stage renal disease (ESRD) incidence rates in that community are 15 times the national non-Aboriginal rate and CV mortality rates in the region are increased 5-fold. Methods. A cross-sectional community survey was conducted. Markers of early renal disease examined included urine albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR), serum creatinine concentration and calculated glomerular filtration rate (GFR). CV risk markers included blood pressure as well as measures of glycaemia, diabetes and serum lipids. Results. The study group included 237 people, 58% of the adult population of the community. The crude prevalence of microalbuminuria (urine ACR: 3.4-33.9 g/mol, 30-299 mg/g) was 31% and of overt albuminuria (urine ACR: greater than or equal to34 g/mol, greater than or equal to300 mg/g), 13%. The prevalence of overt albuminuria increased with age, but the prevalence of microalbuminuria was greatest in the 45-54 year age group. Microalbuminuria was associated with increasing body mass index, whereas overt albuminuria was associated with increasing glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and systolic blood pressure and a history of diabetes. The prevalence of elevated serum creatinine concentration (greater than or equal to120 mumol/l) was 10%. GFR (calculated using the MDRD equation) was <60 ml/min/1.73m(2) in 12% and 60-79 ml/min/1.73 m(2) in a further 36% of the study population. Although many people with albuminuria had well preserved GFRs, mean GFR was lower in people with higher levels of albuminuria. Conclusions. The high prevalence of markers of renal disease in this community was consistent with their high rates of ESRD. The distribution of microalbuminuria suggested a 'cohort effect', representing a group who will progress to overt albuminuria. The powerful association of renal disease markers with CV risk factors confirms a strong link between renal and CV disease in the early, asymptomatic stages of each. Thus, pathologic albuminuria, in part, might be a manifestation of the metabolic/haemodynamic syndrome and both conditions might arise out of a common menu of risk factors. Hence, a single agenda of primary and secondary intervention may benefit both.

Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries

The purpose of this work was to model lung cancer mortality as a function of past exposure to tobacco and to forecast age-sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates. A 3-factor age-period-cohort (APC) model, in which the period variable is replaced by the product of average tar content and adult tobacco consumption per capita, was estimated for the US, UK, Canada and Australia by the maximum likelihood method. Age- and sex-specific tobacco consumption was estimated from historical data on smoking prevalence and total tobacco consumption. Lung cancer mortality was derived from vital registration records. Future tobacco consumption, tar content and the cohort parameter were projected by autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) estimation. The optimal exposure variable was found to be the product of average tar content and adult cigarette consumption per capita, lagged for 2530 years for both males and females in all 4 countries. The coefficient of the product of average tar content and tobacco consumption per capita differs by age and sex. In all models, there was a statistically significant difference in the coefficient of the period variable by sex. In all countries, male age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates peaked in the 1980s and declined thereafter. Female mortality rates are projected to peak in the first decade of this century. The multiplicative models of age, tobacco exposure and cohort fit the observed data between 1950 and 1999 reasonably well, and time-series models yield plausible past trends of relevant variables. Despite a significant reduction in tobacco consumption and average tar content of cigarettes sold over the past few decades, the effect on lung cancer mortality is affected by the time lag between exposure and established disease. As a result, the burden of lung cancer among females is only just reaching, or soon will reach, its peak but has been declining for I to 2 decades in men. Future sex differences in lung cancer mortality are likely to be greater in North America than Australia and the UK due to differences in exposure patterns between the sexes. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Correcting for numerator/denominator bias when assessing changing inequalites in occupational class mortality, Australia 1981-2002

Objective Comparisons of the changing patterns of inequalities in occupational mortality provide one way to monitor the achievement of equity goals. However, previous comparisons have not corrected for numerator/denominator bias, which is a consequence of the different ways in which occupational details are recorded on death certificates and on census forms. The objective of this study was to measure the impact of this bias on mortality rates and ratios over time. Methods Using data provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, we examined the evidence for bias over the period 1981-2002, and used imputation methods to adjust for this bias. We compared unadjusted with imputed rates of mortality for manual/non-manual workers. Findings Unadjusted data indicate increasing inequality in the age-adjusted rates of mortality for manual/non-manual workers during 1981-2002, Imputed data suggest that there have been modest fluctuations in the ratios of mortality for manual/non-manual workers during this time, but with evidence that inequalities have increased only in recent years and are now at historic highs. Conclusion We found that imputation for missing data leads to changes in estimates of inequalities related to social class in mortality for some years but not for others. Occupational class comparisons should be imputed or otherwise adjusted for missing data on census or death certificates.

Is mortality from heart failure increasing in Australia? An analysis of official data on mortality for 1997-2003

Objective To assess whether trends in mortality from heart failure(HF) in Australia are due to a change in awareness of the condition or real changes in its epidemiology. Methods We carried out a retrospective analysis of official data on national mortality data between 1997 and 2003. A death was attributed to HF if the death certificate mentioned HF as either the underlying cause of death (UCD) or among the contributory factors. Findings From a total of 907 242 deaths, heart failure was coded as the UCD for 29 341 (3.2%) and was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate in 135 268 (14.9%). Between 1997 and 2003, there were decreases in the absolute numbers of deaths and in the age-specific and age-standardized mortality rates for HF either as UCD or mentioned anywhere for both sexes. HF was mentioned for 24.6% and 17.8% of deaths attributed to ischaemic heart disease and circulatory disease, respectively, and these proportions remained unchanged over the period of study. In addition, HF as UCD accounted for 8.3% of deaths attributed to circulatory disease and this did not change materially from 1997 to 2003. Conclusion The decline in mortality from HF measured as either number of deaths or rate probably reflects a real change in the epidemiology of HF. Population-based studies are required to determine accurately the contributions of changes in incidence, survival and demographic factors to the evolving epidemiology of HF.

Using cohort studies to estimate mortality among injecting drug users that is not attributable to AIDS

Background: Injecting drug use (IDU) and associated mortality appear to be increasing in many parts of the world. IDU is an important factor in HIV transmission. In estimating AIDS mortality attributable to IDU, it is important to take account of premature mortality rates from other causes to ensure that AIDS related mortality among injecting drug users (IDUs) is not overestimated. The current review provides estimates of the excess non-AIDS mortality among IDUs. Method: Searches were conducted with Medline, PsycINFO, and the Web of Science. The authors also searched reference lists of identified papers and an earlier literature review by English et al (1995). Crude. mortality rates (CMRs) were derived from data on the number of deaths, period of follow UP, and number of participants. In estimating the all-cause mortality, two rates were calculated: one that included all cohort studies identified in the search, and one that only included studies that reported on AIDS deaths in their cohort. This provided lower and upper mortality rates, respectively. Results: The current paper derived weighted mortality rates based upon cohort studies that included 179 885 participants, 1 219 422 person-years of observation, and 16 593 deaths. The weighted crude AIDS mortality rate from studies that reported AIDS deaths was approximately 0.78% per annum. The median estimated non-AIDS mortality rate was 1.08% per annum. Conclusions: Illicit drug users have a greatly increased risk of premature death and mortality due to AIDS forms a significant part of that increased risk; it is, however, only part of that risk. Future work needs to examine mortality rates among IDUs in developing countries, and collect data on the relation between HIV and increased mortality due to all causes among this group.

Estimating cause-specfic mortality from community- and facility-based data sources in the United Republic of Tanzania: options and implications for mortality burden estimates

Objective To compare mortality burden estimates based on direct measurement of levels and causes in communities with indirect estimates based on combining health facility cause-specific mortality structures with community measurement of mortality levels. Methods. Data from sentinel vital registration (SVR) with verbal autopsy (VA) were used to determine the cause-specific mortality burden at the community level in two areas of the United Republic of Tanzania. Proportional cause-specific mortality structures from health facilities were applied to counts of deaths obtained by SVR to produce modelled estimates. The burden was expressed in years of life lost. Findings. A total of 2884 deaths were recorded from health facilities and 2167 recorded from SVR/VAs. In the perinatal and neonatal age group cause-specific mortality rates were dominated by perinatal conditions and stillbirths in both the community and the facility data. The modelled estimates for chronic causes were very similar to those from SVR/VA. Acute febrile illnesses were coded more specifically in the facility data than in the VA. Injuries were more prevalent in the SVR/VA data than in that from the facilities. Conclusion. In this setting, improved International classification of diseases and health related problems, tenth revision (ICD-10) coding practices and applying facility-based cause structures to counts of deaths from communities, derived from SVR, appears to produce reasonable estimates of the cause-specific mortality burden in those aged 5 years and older determined directly from VA. For the perinatal and neonatal age group, VA appears to be required. Use of this approach in a nationally representative sample of facilities may produce reliable national estimates of the cause-specific mortality burden for leading causes of death in adults.

Molecular introduction to head and neck cancer (HNSCC) carcinogenesis

Of all human cancers, HNSCC is the most distressing affecting pain, disfigurement, speech and the basic survival functions of breathing and swallowing. Mortality rates have not significantly changed in the last 40 years despite advances in radiotherapy and surgical treatment. Molecular markers are currently being identified that can determine prognosis preoperatively by routine tumour biopsy Leading to improved management of HNSCC patients. The approach could help decide which early stage patient should have adjuvant neck dissection and radiotherapy, and whether Later stage patients with operable lesions would benefit from resection and reconstructive surgery or adopt a conservative approach to patients with poor prognosis regardless of treatment. In the future, understanding these basic genetic changes in HNSCC would be important for the management of HNSCC. (C) 2004 The British Association of Plastic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni: a cohort-based approach incorporating the effects of weather

Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni (QFF) is arguably the most costly horticultural insect pest in Australia. Despite this, no model is available to describe its population dynamics and aid in its management. This paper describes a cohort-based model of the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly. The model is primarily driven by weather variables, and so can be used at any location where appropriate meteorological data are available. In the model, the life cycle is divided into a number of discreet stages to allow physiological processes to be defined as accurately as possible. Eggs develop and hatch into larvae, which develop into pupae, which emerge as either teneral females or males. Both females and males can enter reproductive and over-wintering life stages, and there is a trapped male life stage to allow model predictions to be compared with trap catch data. All development rates are temperature-dependent. Daily mortality rates are temperature-dependent, but may also be influenced by moisture, density of larvae in fruit, fruit suitability, and age. Eggs, larvae and pupae all have constant establishment mortalities, causing a defined proportion of individuals to die upon entering that life stage. Transfer from one immature stage to the next is based on physiological age. In the adult life stages, transfer between stages may require additional and/or alternative functions. Maximum fecundity is 1400 eggs per female per day, and maximum daily oviposition rate is 80 eggs/female per day. The actual number of eggs laid by a female on any given day is restricted by temperature, density of larva in fruit, suitability of fruit for oviposition, and female activity. Activity of reproductive females and males, which affects reproduction and trapping, decreases with rainfall. Trapping of reproductive males is determined by activity, temperature and the proportion of males in the active population. Limitations of the model are discussed. Despite these, the model provides a useful agreement with trap catch data, and allows key areas for future research to be identified. These critical gaps in the current state of knowledge exist despite over 50 years of research on this key pest. By explicitly attempting to model the population dynamics of this pest we have clearly identified the research areas that must be addressed before progress can be made in developing the model into an operational tool for the management of Queensland fruit fly. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Achieving better in-hospital and after-hospital care of patients with acute cardiac disease

In patients hospitalised with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) and congestive heart failure (CHF), evidence suggests opportunities for improving in-hospital and after hospital care, patient self-care, and hospital-community integration. A multidisciplinary quality improvement program was designed and instigated in Brisbane in October 2000 involving 250 clinicians at three teaching hospitals, 1080 general practitioners (GPs) from five Divisions of General Practice, 1594 patients with ACS and 904 patients with CHF. Quality improvement interventions were implemented over 17 months after a 6-month baseline period and included: clinical decision support (clinical practice guidelines, reminders, checklists, clinical pathways); educational interventions (seminars, academic detailing); regular performance feedback; patient self-management strategies; and hospital-community integration (discharge referral summaries; community pharmacist liaison; patient prompts to attend GPs). Using a before-after study design to assess program impact, significantly more program patients compared with historical controls received: ACS: Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and lipid-lowering agents at discharge, aspirin and beta-blockers at 3 months after discharge, inpatient cardiac counselling, and referral to outpatient cardiac rehabilitation. CHF. Assessment for reversible precipitants, use of prophylaxis for deep-venous thrombosis, beta-blockers at discharge, ACE inhibitors at 6 months after discharge, imaging of left ventricular function, and optimal management of blood pressure levels. Risk-adjusted mortality rates at 6 and 12 months decreased, respectively, from 9.8% to 7.4% (P=0.06) and from 13.4% to 10.1% (P= 0.06) for patients with ACS and from 22.8% to 15.2% (P < 0.001) and from 32.8% to 22.4% (P= 0.005) for patients with CHF. Quality improvement programs that feature multifaceted interventions across the continuum of care can change clinical culture, optimise care and improve clinical outcomes.

Factors influencing PRN medication use in nursing homes

Objective: To identify determinants of PRN ( as needed) drug use in nursing homes. Decisions about the use of these medications are made expressly by nursing home staff when general medical practitioners (GPs) prescribe medications for PRN use. Method: Cross-sectional drug use data were collected during a 7-day window from 13 Australian nursing homes. Information was collected on the size, staffing-mix, number of visiting GPs, number of medication rounds, and mortality rates in each nursing home. Resident specific measures collected included age, gender, length of stay, recent hospitalisation and care needs. Main outcome measures: The number of PRN orders prescribed per resident and the number of PRN doses given per week averaged over the number of PRN medications given at all in the seven-day period. Results: Approximately 35% of medications were prescribed for PRN use. Higher PRN use was found for residents with the lower care needs, recent hospitalisation and more frequent doses of regularly scheduled medications. With increasing length of stay, PRN medication orders initially increased then declined but the number of doses given declined from admission. While some resident-specific characteristics did influence PRN drug use, the key determinant for PRN medication orders was the specific nursing home in which a resident lived. Resident age and gender were not determinants of PRN drug use. Conclusion: The determinants of PRN drug use suggest that interventions to optimize PRN medications should target the care of individual residents, prescribing and the nursing home processes and policies that govern PRN drug use.

Does health assessment improve health outcomes in Indigenous people? An RCT with 13 years of follow-up

Objective: To examine the impact of a multi-component health assessment on mortality and morbidity in Kimberley Aboriginal residents during a 13-year follow-up. Method. A population-based randomised controlled trial using linked hospital, cancer and death records to evaluate outcomes in 620 intervention and 6,736 control subjects. Results: The intervention group had a higher rate of first-time hospitalisation for any reason (IRR = 1.37; 95 % Cl 1.25-1.50), a higher rate of injury-related hospital episodes (IRR = 1.31; 95 % Cl 1.15-1.48) and a higher notification rate of alcohol-related cancers. There was a smaller difference in the rates of multiple hospitalisations (IRR = 1.14; 95 % Cl 0.751.74) and no improvement in overall mortality compared with controls (IRR = 1.08; 95 % Cl 0.91-1.29). Conclusions: There was no overall mortality benefit despite increased health service contact associated with the intervention. Implications: Although not influencing mortality rates, multi-component health assessment may result in a period of increased health service use in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations, thus constituting an 'intervention'. However, this should not be confused with systematic and sustained interventions and investment in community development to achieve better health outcomes.

Novel markers for poor prognosis in head and neck cancer

Head and neck cancer (HNSCC) is one of the most distressing human cancers, causing pain and affecting the basic survival functions of breathing and swallowing. Mortality rates have not changed despite recent advances in radiotherapy and surgical treatment. We have compared the expression of over 13,000 unique genes in 7 cases of matched HNSCC and normal oral mucosa. Of the 1,260 genes that showed statistically significant differences in expression between normal and tumor tissue at the mRNA level, the three top ranking of the top 5% were selected for further analysis by immunohistochemistry on paraffin sections,. along with the tumor suppressor genes p16 and p53, in a total of 62 patients including 55 for whom >4-year clinical data was available. Using univariate and multivariate survival analysis, we identified SPARC/osteonectin as a powerful independent prognostic marker for short disease-free interval (DFI) (p < 0.002) and poor overall survival (OS) (p = 0.018) of HNSCC patients. In combination with other ECM proteins found in our analysis, PAI-1 and uPA, the association with DFI and OS became even more significant (p < 0.001). Our study represents the first instance of SPARC as an independent prognostic marker in HNSCC.