Reconciling value estimates from the discounted cash flow model and the residual income model

This paper examines why practitioners and researchers get different estimates of equity value when they use a discounted cash flow (CF) model versus a residual income (RI) model. Both models are derived from the same underlying assumption -- that price is the present value of expected future net dividends discounted at the cost of equity capital -- but in practice and in research they frequently yield different estimates. We argue that the research literature devoted to comparing the accuracy of these two models is misguided; properly implemented, both models yield identical valuations for all firms in all years. We identify how prior research has applied inconsistent assumptions to the two models and show how these seemingly small errors cause surprisingly large differences in the value estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trade relationships between the Gulf Cooperation Council and the European Union

This paper examines the trade relationship between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the European Union (EU). A simultaneous equation regression model is developed and estimated to assist with the analysis. The regression results, using both the two stage least squares (2SLS) and ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation methods, reveal the existence of feedback effects between the two economic integrations. The results also show that during times of slack in oil prices, the GCC income from its investments overseas helped to finance its imports from the EU.

Robust model-order reduction of complex biological processes

This paper addresses robust model-order reduction of a high dimensional nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) model of a complex biological process. Based on a nonlinear, distributed parameter model of the same process which was validated against experimental data of an existing, pilot-scale BNR activated sludge plant, we developed a state-space model with 154 state variables in this work. A general algorithm for robustly reducing the nonlinear PDE model is presented and based on an investigation of five state-of-the-art model-order reduction techniques, we are able to reduce the original model to a model with only 30 states without incurring pronounced modelling errors. The Singular perturbation approximation balanced truncating technique is found to give the lowest modelling errors in low frequency ranges and hence is deemed most suitable for controller design and other real-time applications. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical simulation of magnetite segregation in a dense medium cyclone

Numerical simulations of turbulent driven flow in a dense medium cyclone with magnetite medium have been conducted using Fluent. The predicted air core shape and diameter were found to be close to the experimental results measured by gamma ray tomography. It is possible that the Large eddy simulation (LES) turbulence model with Mixture multi-phase model can be used to predict the air/slurry interface accurately although the LES may need a finer grid. Multi-phase simulations (air/water/medium) are showing appropriate medium segregation effects but are over-predicting the level of segregation compared to that measured by gamma-ray tomography in particular with over prediction of medium concentrations near the wall. Further, investigated the accurate prediction of axial segregation of magnetite using the LES turbulence model together with the multi-phase mixture model and viscosity corrections according to the feed particle loading factor. Addition of lift forces and viscosity correction improved the predictions especially near the wall. Predicted density profiles are very close to gamma ray tomography data showing a clear density drop near the wall. The effect of size distribution of the magnetite has been fully studied. It is interesting to note that the ultra-fine magnetite sizes (i.e. 2 and 7 mu m) are distributed uniformly throughout the cyclone. As the size of magnetite increases, more segregation of magnetite occurs close to the wall. The cut-density (d(50)) of the magnetite segregation is 32 gm, which is expected with superfine magnetite feed size distribution. At higher feed densities the agreement between the [Dungilson, 1999; Wood, J.C., 1990. A performance model for coal-washing dense medium cyclones, Ph.D. Thesis, JKMRC, University of Queensland] correlations and the CFD are reasonably good, but the overflow density is lower than the model predictions. It is believed that the excessive underflow volumetric flow rates are responsible for under prediction of the overflow density. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-level zero-inflated Poisson regression modelling of correlated count data with excess zeros

Count data with excess zeros relative to a Poisson distribution are common in many biomedical applications. A popular approach to the analysis of such data is to use a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model. Often, because of the hierarchical Study design or the data collection procedure, zero-inflation and lack of independence may occur simultaneously, which tender the standard ZIP model inadequate. To account for the preponderance of zero counts and the inherent correlation of observations, a class of multi-level ZIP regression model with random effects is presented. Model fitting is facilitated using an expectation-maximization algorithm, whereas variance components are estimated via residual maximum likelihood estimating equations. A score test for zero-inflation is also presented. The multi-level ZIP model is then generalized to cope with a more complex correlation structure. Application to the analysis of correlated count data from a longitudinal infant feeding study illustrates the usefulness of the approach.

Ladder operators for integrable one-dimensional lattice models

A generalised ladder operator is used to construct the conserved operators for any one-dimensional lattice model derived from the Yang-Baxter equation. As an example, the low order conserved operators for the XYh model are calculated explicitly.

Estimating remittance functions for Pacific island migrants

There is concern that Pacific island economies dependent on remittances of migrants will endure foreign exchange shortages and declining Living standards as remittance levels drop due to lower migration rates and the belief that migrants' willingness to remit decreases over time. The empirical validity of the remittance-decay hypothesis has never been tested. From survey data on Tongan and Western Samoan migrants in Sydney, this paper estimates remittance functions using Tobit regression analysis. It is found that the remittance-decay hypothesis has no empirical validity and migrants are motivated by factors other than altruistic family support, including asset accumulation and investment back home. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Beach water table fluctuations due to wave run-up: Capillarity effects

High-frequency beach water table fluctuations due to wave run-up and rundown have been observed in the field [Waddell, 1976]. Such fluctuations affect the infiltration/exfiltration process across the beach face and the interstitial oxygenation process in the beach ecosystem. Accurate representation of high-frequency water table fluctuations is of importance in the modeling of (1) the interaction between seawater and groundwater, more important, the effects on swash sediment transport and (2) the biological activities in the beach ecosystem. Capillarity effects provide a mechanism for high-frequency water table fluctuations. Previous modeling approaches adopted the assumption of saturated flow only and failed to predict the propagation of high-frequency fluctuations in the aquifer. In this paper we develop a modified kinematic boundary condition (kbc) for the water table which incorporates capillarity effects. The application of this kbc in a boundary element model enables the simulation of high-frequency water table fluctuations due to wave run-up. Numerical tests were carried out for a rectangular domain with small-amplitude oscillations; the behavior of water table responses was found to be similar to that predicted by an analytical solution based on the one-dimensional Boussinesq equation. The model was also applied to simulate the water table response to wave run-up on a doping beach. The results showed similar features of water table fluctuations observed in the field. In particular, these fluctuations are standing wave-like with the amplitude becoming increasingly damped inland. We conclude that the modified kbc presented here is a reasonable approximation of capillarity effects on beach water table fluctuations. However, further model validation is necessary before the model can confidently be used to simulate high-frequency water table fluctuations due to wave run-up.

A semi-empirical approach to optimise the quantity of drying aids required to spray dry sugar-rich foods

A semi-empirical linear equation has been developed to optimise the amount of maltodextrin additive (DE 6) required to successfully spray dry a sugar-rich product on the basis of its composition. Based on spray drying experiments, drying index values for individual sugars (sucrose, glucose, frutose) and citric acid were determined, and us;ng these index values an equation for model mixtures of these components was established. This equation has been tested with two sugar-rich natural products, pineapple juice and honey. The relationship was found to be valid for these products.

Influence of hysteresis on tidal capillary fringe dynamics in a well-sorted sand

Nielsen and Perrochet [Adv. Water Resour. 23 (2000) 503] presented experimental data for cyclic water movement in the vadose zone above an oscillating watertable. The response of the watertable to cyclic forcing was characterised by the ratios of the forcing head to watertable amplitudes and their associated phase lag. They found that their non-hysteretic Richards' equation model failed to represent the observed behaviour of these parameters. This paper explores the effect on the simulated capillary fringe dynamics (in terms of these parameters) of including varying degrees of hysteresis in the moisture retention curve used in a numerical model of their experiment. It is clear that hysteresis can indeed account for observed discrepancies between simulation and experiment and that the effect of hysteresis varies with the frequency of oscillation. The use of a single-valued mean retention curve, as advocated by some authors, fails to provide a match between the simulated and observed behaviour of the Nielsen and Perrochet parameters, but is shown to be adequate for predicting time-averaged soil moisture profiles. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Why Scotland needs more than just a new migration policy

The Scottish Executive has adopted a policy to combat Scotland's declining population by encouraging inward migration. Using a multi-state population model this paper presents nine long-term population scenarios for Scotland using three net international migration levels and three fertility paths. The results show inward migration can slow population decline but makes little difference to population ageing. Without a higher fertility rate Scotland's population will become demographically unsustainable. Our simulations show that a higher fertility rate substantially reduces the future ageing.

Mechanical alloying of MoSi2 with ternary alloying elements. Part 2 - computer simulation

A computer model of the mechanical alloying process has been developed to simulate phase formation during the mechanical alloying of Mo and Si elemental powders with a ternary addition of Al, Mg, Ti or Zr. Using the Arhennius equation, the model balances the formation rates of the competing reactions that are observed during milling. These reactions include the formation of tetragonal C11(b) MOSi2 (t-MoSi2) by combustion, the formation of the hexagonal C40 MoSi2 polymorph (h-MoSi2), the transformation of the tetragonal to the hexagonal form, and the recovery of t-MoSi2 from h-MoSi2 and deformed t-MoSi2. The addition of the ternary additions changes the free energy of formation of the associated MoSi2 alloys, i.e. Mo(Si, Al)(2), Mo(Mg, Al)(2), (Mo, Ti)Si-2 (Mo, Zr)Si-2 and (Mo, Fe)Si-2, respectively. Variation of the energy of formation alone is sufficient for the simulation to accurately model the observed phase formation. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Opposite effects of androgen receptor CAG repeat length on increased risk of left-handedness in males and females

Prenatal exposure to testosterone has been hypothesised to effect lateralization by influencing cell death in the foetal brain. Testosterone binds to the X chromosome linked androgen receptor, which contains a polymorphic polyglutamine CAG repeat, the length of which is positively correlated with testosterone levels in males, and negatively correlated in females. To determine whether the length of the androgen receptor mediates the effects of testosterone on laterality, we examined the association between the number of CAG repeats in the androgen receptor gene and handedness for writing. Association was tested by adding regression terms for the length of the androgen receptor alleles to a multi-factorial-threshold model of liability to left-handedness. In females we found the risk of left-handedness was greater in those with a greater number of repeats (p=0.04), this finding was replicated in a second independent sample of female twins (p=0.014). The length of the androgen receptor explained 6% of the total variance and 24% of the genetic variance in females. In males the risk of left-handedness was greater in those with fewer repeats (p=0.02), with variation in receptor length explaining 10% of the total variance and 24% of the genetic variance. Thus, consistent with Witelson's theory of testosterone action, in all three samples the likelihood of left handedness increased in those individuals with variants of the androgen receptor associated with lower testosterone levels.

A master equation model for bimolecular reaction via multi-well isomerization intermediates

A reversible linear master equation model is presented for pressure- and temperature-dependent bimolecular reactions proceeding via multiple long-lived intermediates. This kinetic treatment, which applies when the reactions are measured under pseudo-first-order conditions, facilitates accurate and efficient simulation of the time dependence of the populations of reactants, intermediate species and products. Detailed exploratory calculations have been carried out to demonstrate the capabilities of the approach, with applications to the bimolecular association reaction C3H6 + H reversible arrow C3H7 and the bimolecular chemical activation reaction C2H2 +(CH2)-C-1--> C3H3+H. The efficiency of the method can be dramatically enhanced through use of a diffusion approximation to the master equation, and a methodology for exploiting the sparse structure of the resulting rate matrix is established.