Population pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics: An underutilized resource

A meeting was convened in Canberra, Australia, at the request of the Australian Drug Evaluation Committee (ADEC), on December 3-4, 1997 to discuss the role of population pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics in drug evaluation and development. The ADEC was particularly concerned about registration of drugs in the pediatric age group. The population approach could be used more often than is currently the case in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic studies to provide valuable information for the safe and effective use of drugs in neonates, infants, and children. The meeting ultimately broadened to include discussion about other subgroups. The main conclusions of the meeting were: 1. The population approach, pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic analysis, is a valuable tool both for drug registration purposes and for optimal dosing of drugs in specific groups of patients, 2. Population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic studies are able to fill in the gaps' in registration of drugs, for example, to provide information on optimal pediatric dosing. Such studies provide a basis for enhancing product information to improve rational prescribing, 3. Expertise is required to perform the population studies and expertise, with a clinical perspective, is also required to evaluate such studies if they are to be submitted as part of a drug registration dossier Such expertise is available in the Australasian region and is increasing. Centers of excellence with the appropriate expertise to advise and assist should be encouraged to develop and grow in the region, 4. The use of the population approach by the pharmaceutical industry needs to be encouraged to provide valuable information not obtainable by other techniques. The acceptance of population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic analyses by regulatory agencies also needs to be encouraged, and 5. Development of the population approach to pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics is needed from a public health perspective to ensure that all available information is collected and used to improve the way drugs are used. This important endeavor needs funding and support at the local and international levels.

Modelling solute transport in structured soils: Performance evaluation of the ADR and TRM models

The movement of chemicals through the soil to the groundwater or discharged to surface waters represents a degradation of these resources. In many cases, serious human and stock health implications are associated with this form of pollution. The chemicals of interest include nutrients, pesticides, salts, and industrial wastes. Recent studies have shown that current models and methods do not adequately describe the leaching of nutrients through soil, often underestimating the risk of groundwater contamination by surface-applied chemicals, and overestimating the concentration of resident solutes. This inaccuracy results primarily from ignoring soil structure and nonequilibrium between soil constituents, water, and solutes. A multiple sample percolation system (MSPS), consisting of 25 individual collection wells, was constructed to study the effects of localized soil heterogeneities on the transport of nutrients (NO3-, Cl-, PO43-) in the vadose zone of an agricultural soil predominantly dominated by clay. Very significant variations in drainage patterns across a small spatial scale were observed tone-way ANOVA, p < 0.001) indicating considerable heterogeneity in water flow patterns and nutrient leaching. Using data collected from the multiple sample percolation experiments, this paper compares the performance of two mathematical models for predicting solute transport, the advective-dispersion model with a reaction term (ADR), and a two-region preferential flow model (TRM) suitable for modelling nonequilibrium transport. These results have implications for modelling solute transport and predicting nutrient loading on a larger scale. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative justification for target concentration intervention - parameter variability and predictive performance using population pharmacokinetic models for aminoglycosides

Aims [1] To quantify the random and predictable components of variability for aminoglycoside clearance and volume of distribution [2] To investigate models for predicting aminoglycoside clearance in patients with low serum creatinine concentrations [3] To evaluate the predictive performance of initial dosing strategies for achieving an aminoglycoside target concentration. Methods Aminoglycoside demographic, dosing and concentration data were collected from 697 adult patients (>=20 years old) as part of standard clinical care using a target concentration intervention approach for dose individualization. It was assumed that aminoglycoside clearance had a renal and a nonrenal component, with the renal component being linearly related to predicted creatinine clearance. Results A two compartment pharmacokinetic model best described the aminoglycoside data. The addition of weight, age, sex and serum creatinine as covariates reduced the random component of between subject variability (BSVR) in clearance (CL) from 94% to 36% of population parameter variability (PPV). The final pharmacokinetic parameter estimates for the model with the best predictive performance were: CL, 4.7 l h(-1) 70 kg(-1); intercompartmental clearance (CLic), 1 l h(-1) 70 kg(-1); volume of central compartment (V-1), 19.5 l 70 kg(-1); volume of peripheral compartment (V-2) 11.2 l 70 kg(-1). Conclusions Using a fixed dose of aminoglycoside will achieve 35% of typical patients within 80-125% of a required dose. Covariate guided predictions increase this up to 61%. However, because we have shown that random within subject variability (WSVR) in clearance is less than safe and effective variability (SEV), target concentration intervention can potentially achieve safe and effective doses in 90% of patients.

Dissecting query performance in logical data models: Parsimony vs. greater ontological clarity

Even when data repositories exhibit near perfect data quality, users may formulate queries that do not correspond to the information requested. Users’ poor information retrieval performance may arise from either problems understanding of the data models that represent the real world systems, or their query skills. This research focuses on users’ understanding of the data structures, i.e., their ability to map the information request and the data model. The Bunge-Wand-Weber ontology was used to formulate three sets of hypotheses. Two laboratory experiments (one using a small data model and one using a larger data model) tested the effect of ontological clarity on users’ performance when undertaking component, record, and aggregate level tasks. The results indicate for the hypotheses associated with different representations but equivalent semantics that parsimonious data model participants performed better for component level tasks but that ontologically clearer data model participants performed better for record and aggregate level tasks.

Defining a role for the subthalamic nucleus within operative theoretical models of subcortical participation in language

Objective:To investigate the effects of bilateral, surgically induced functional inhibition of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) on general language, high level linguistic abilities, and semantic processing skills in a group of patients with Parkinson’s disease. Methods:Comprehensive linguistic profiles were obtained up to one month before and three months after bilateral implantation of electrodes in the STN during active deep brain stimulation (DBS) in five subjects with Parkinson’s disease (mean age, 63.2 years). Equivalent linguistic profiles were generated over a three month period for a non-surgical control cohort of 16 subjects with Parkinson’s disease (NSPD) (mean age, 64.4 years). Education and disease duration were similar in the two groups. Initial assessment and three month follow up performance profiles were compared within subjects by paired t tests. Reliability change indices (RCI), representing clinically significant alterations in performance over time, were calculated for each of the assessment scores achieved by the five STN-DBS cases and the 16 NSPD controls, relative to performance variability within a group of 16 non-neurologically impaired adults (mean age, 61.9 years). Proportions of reliable change were then compared between the STN-DBS and NSPD groups. Results:Paired comparisons within the STN-DBS group showed prolonged postoperative semantic processing reaction times for a range of word types coded for meanings and meaning relatedness. Case by case analyses of reliable change across language assessments and groups revealed differences in proportions of change over time within the STN-DBS and NSPD groups in the domains of high level linguistics and semantic processing. Specifically, when compared with the NSPD group, the STN-DBS group showed a proportionally significant (p

Redefining functional models of basal ganglia organisation: Role for the posteroventral pallidum in linguistic processing?

Traditionally the basal ganglia have been implicated in motor behavior, as they are involved in both the execution of automatic actions and the modification of ongoing actions in novel contexts. Corresponding to cognition, the role of the basal ganglia has not been defined as explicitly. Relative to linguistic processes, contemporary theories of subcortical participation in language have endorsed a role for the globus pallidus internus (GPi) in the control of lexical-semantic operations. However, attempts to empirically validate these postulates have been largely limited to neuropsychological investigations of verbal fluency abilities subsequent to pallidotomy. We evaluated the impact of bilateral posteroventral pallidotomy (BPVP) on language function across a range of general and high-level linguistic abilities, and validated/extended working theories of pallidal participation in language. Comprehensive linguistic profiles were compiled up to 1 month before and 3 months after BPVP in 6 subjects with Parkinson's disease (PD). Commensurate linguistic profiles were also gathered over a 3-month period for a nonsurgical control cohort of 16 subjects with PD and a group of 16 non-neurologically impaired controls (NC). Nonparametric between-groups comparisons were conducted and reliable change indices calculated, relative to baseline/3-month follow-up difference scores. Group-wise statistical comparisons between the three groups failed to reveal significant postoperative changes in language performance. Case-by-case data analysis relative to clinically consequential change indices revealed reliable alterations in performance across several language variables as a consequence of BPVP. These findings lend support to models of subcortical participation in language, which promote a role for the GPi in lexical-semantic manipulation mechanisms. Concomitant improvements and decrements in postoperative performance were interpreted within the context of additive and subtractive postlesional effects. Relative to parkinsonian cohorts, clinically reliable versus statistically significant changes on a case by case basis may provide the most accurate method of characterizing the way in which pathophysiologically divergent basal ganglia linguistic circuits respond to BPVP.

Development and evaluation of neural network freeway incident detection models using field data

This paper discusses a multi-layer feedforward (MLF) neural network incident detection model that was developed and evaluated using field data. In contrast to published neural network incident detection models which relied on simulated or limited field data for model development and testing, the model described in this paper was trained and tested on a real-world data set of 100 incidents. The model uses speed, flow and occupancy data measured at dual stations, averaged across all lanes and only from time interval t. The off-line performance of the model is reported under both incident and non-incident conditions. The incident detection performance of the model is reported based on a validation-test data set of 40 incidents that were independent of the 60 incidents used for training. The false alarm rates of the model are evaluated based on non-incident data that were collected from a freeway section which was video-taped for a period of 33 days. A comparative evaluation between the neural network model and the incident detection model in operation on Melbourne's freeways is also presented. The results of the comparative performance evaluation clearly demonstrate the substantial improvement in incident detection performance obtained by the neural network model. The paper also presents additional results that demonstrate how improvements in model performance can be achieved using variable decision thresholds. Finally, the model's fault-tolerance under conditions of corrupt or missing data is investigated and the impact of loop detector failure/malfunction on the performance of the trained model is evaluated and discussed. The results presented in this paper provide a comprehensive evaluation of the developed model and confirm that neural network models can provide fast and reliable incident detection on freeways. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two dimensional computational fluid dynamic models for waste stabilisation ponds

Traditional waste stabilisation pond (WSP) models encounter problems predicting pond performance because they cannot account for the influence of pond features, such as inlet structure or pond geometry, on fluid hydrodynamics. In this study, two dimensional (2-D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models were compared to experimental residence time distributions (RTD) from literature. In one of the-three geometries simulated, the 2-D CFD model successfully predicted the experimental RTD. However, flow patterns in the other two geometries were not well described due to the difficulty of representing the three dimensional (3-D) experimental inlet in the 2-D CFD model, and the sensitivity of the model results to the assumptions used to characterise the inlet. Neither a velocity similarity nor geometric similarity approach to inlet representation in 2-D gave results correlating with experimental data. However. it was shown that 2-D CFD models were not affected by changes in values of model parameters which are difficult to predict, particularly the turbulent inlet conditions. This work suggests that 2-D CFD models cannot be used a priori to give an adequate description of the hydrodynamic patterns in WSP. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A computational study of shock speeds in high-performance shock tubes

This paper describes U2DE, a finite-volume code that numerically solves the Euler equations. The code was used to perform multi-dimensional simulations of the gradual opening of a primary diaphragm in a shock tube. From the simulations, the speed of the developing shock wave was recorded and compared with other estimates. The ability of U2DE to compute shock speed was confirmed by comparing numerical results with the analytic solution for an ideal shock tube. For high initial pressure ratios across the diaphragm, previous experiments have shown that the measured shock speed can exceed the shock speed predicted by one-dimensional models. The shock speeds computed with the present multi-dimensional simulation were higher than those estimated by previous one-dimensional models and, thus, were closer to the experimental measurements. This indicates that multi-dimensional flow effects were partly responsible for the relatively high shock speeds measured in the experiments.

Analysis of dynamic models for structural insight and model reduction .2. A multi-stage compressor shutdown case-study

In this second paper, the three structural measures which have been developed are used in the modelling of a three stage centrifugal synthesis gas compressor. The goal of this case study is to determine the essential mathematical structure which must be incorporated into the compressor model to accurately model the shutdown of this system. A simple, accurate and functional model of the system is created via three structural measures. It was found that the model can be correctly reduced into its basic modes and that the order of the differential system can be reduced from 51(st) to 20(th). Of the 31 differential equational 21 reduce to algebraic relations, 8 become constants and 2 can be deleted thereby increasing the algebraic set from 70 to 91 equations. An interpretation is also obtained as to which physical phenomena are dominating the dynamics of the compressor add whether the compressor will enter surge during the shutdown. Comparisons of the reduced model performance against the full model are given, showing the accuracy and applicability of the approach. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Comparison between Eysenck's and Gray's models of personality in the prediction of motivational work criteria

Impulsivity based on Gray's [Gray, J. A. (1982) The neuropsychology of anxiety: an enquiry into the function of the septo-hippocampal system. New York: Oxford University Press: (1991). The neurophysiology of temperament. In J. Strelau & A. Angleitner. Explorations in temperament: international perspectives on theory and measurement. London. Plenum Press]. physiological model of personality was hypothesised to be more predictive of goal oriented criteria within the workplace than scales derived From Eysenck's [Eysenck. H.J. (1967). The biological basis of personality. Springfield, IL: Charles C. Thompson.] physiological model of personality. Results confirmed the hypothesis and also showed that Gray's scale of Impulsivity was generally a better predictor than attributional style and interest in money. Results were interpreted as providing support for Gray's Behavioural Activation System which moderates response to reward. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prospective independent validation of APACHE III models in an Australian tertiary adult intensive care unit

Evaluation of the performance of the APACHE III (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) ICU (intensive care unit) and hospital mortality models at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane is reported. Prospective collection of demographic, diagnostic, physiological, laboratory, admission and discharge data of 5681 consecutive eligible admissions (1 January 1995 to 1 January 2000) was conducted at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, a metropolitan Australian tertiary referral medical/surgical adult ICU. ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve areas for the APACHE III ICU mortality and hospital mortality models demonstrated excellent discrimination. Observed ICU mortality (9.1%) was significantly overestimated by the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (10.1%), but did not significantly differ from the prediction of the generic APACHE III model (8.6%). In contrast, observed hospital mortality (14.8%) agreed well with the prediction of the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (14.6%), but was significantly underestimated by the unadjusted APACHE III model (13.2%). Calibration curves and goodness-of-fit analysis using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, demonstrated that calibration was good with the unadjusted APACHE III ICU mortality model, and the APACHE III hospital mortality model adjusted for hospital characteristics. Post hoc analysis revealed a declining annual SMR (standardized mortality rate) during the study period. This trend was present in each of the non-surgical, emergency and elective surgical diagnostic groups, and the change was temporally related to increased specialist staffing levels. This study demonstrates that the APACHE III model performs well on independent assessment in an Australian hospital. Changes observed in annual SMR using such a validated model support an hypothesis of improved survival outcomes 1995-1999.

Critical comparison of Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre (JKMRC) blast fragmentation models

Blast fragmentation can have a significant impact on the profitability of a mine. An optimum run of mine (ROM) size distribution is required to maximise the performance of downstream processes. If this fragmentation size distribution can be modelled and controlled, the operation will have made a significant advancement towards improving its performance. Blast fragmentation modelling is an important step in Mine to Mill™ optimisation. It allows the estimation of blast fragmentation distributions for a number of different rock mass, blast geometry, and explosive parameters. These distributions can then be modelled in downstream mining and milling processes to determine the optimum blast design. When a blast hole is detonated rock breakage occurs in two different stress regions - compressive and tensile. In the-first region, compressive stress waves form a 'crushed zone' directly adjacent to the blast hole. The second region, termed the 'cracked zone', occurs outside the crush one. The widely used Kuz-Ram model does not recognise these two blast regions. In the Kuz-Ram model the mean fragment size from the blast is approximated and is then used to estimate the remaining size distribution. Experience has shown that this model predicts the coarse end reasonably accurately, but it can significantly underestimate the amount of fines generated. As part of the Australian Mineral Industries Research Association (AMIRA) P483A Mine to Mill™ project, the Two-Component Model (TCM) and Crush Zone Model (CZM), developed by the Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre (JKMRC), were compared and evaluated to measured ROM fragmentation distributions. An important criteria for this comparison was the variation of model results from measured ROM in the-fine to intermediate section (1-100 mm) of the fragmentation curve. This region of the distribution is important for Mine to Mill™ optimisation. The comparison of modelled and Split ROM fragmentation distributions has been conducted in harder ores (UCS greater than 80 MPa). Further work involves modelling softer ores. The comparisons will be continued with future site surveys to increase confidence in the comparison of the CZM and TCM to Split results. Stochastic fragmentation modelling will then be conducted to take into account variation of input parameters. A window of possible fragmentation distributions can be compared to those obtained by Split . Following this work, an improved fragmentation model will be developed in response to these findings.

Linking physiological and architectural models of cotton

Despite the strong influence of plant architecture on crop yield, most crop models either ignore it or deal with it in a very rudimentary way. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of linking a model that simulates the morphogenesis and resultant architecture of individual cotton plants with a crop model that simulates the effects of environmental factors on critical physiological processes and resulting yield in cotton. First the varietal parameters of the models were made concordant. Then routines were developed to allocate the flower buds produced each day by the crop model amongst the potential positions generated by the architectural model. This allocation is done according to a set of heuristic rules. The final weight of individual bolls and the shedding of buds and fruit caused by water, N, and C stresses are processed in a similar manner. Observations of the positions of harvestable fruits, both within and between plants, made under a variety of agronomic conditions that had resulted in a broad range of plant architectures were compared to those predicted by the model with the same environmental inputs. As illustrated by comparisons of plant maps, the linked models performed reasonably well, though performance of the fruiting point allocation and shedding algorithms could probably be improved by further analysis of the spatial relationships of retained fruit. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.