Forecasting Helicoverpa populations in Australia: A comparison of regression based models and a bio-climatic based modeling approach

Long-term forecasts of pest pressure are central to the effective management of many agricultural insect pests. In the eastern cropping regions of Australia, serious infestations of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hübner)(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) are experienced annually. Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches of adult moths were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of both species. The size of the spring generation in eastern cropping zones could be related to rainfall in putative source areas in inland Australia. Subsequent generations could be related to the abundance of various crops in agricultural areas, rainfall and the magnitude of the spring population peak. As rainfall figured prominently as a predictor variable, and can itself be predicted using the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trap catches were also related to this variable. The geographic distribution of each species was modelled in relation to climate and CLIMEX was used to predict temporal variation in abundance at given putative source sites in inland Australia using historical meteorological data. These predictions were then correlated with subsequent pest abundance data in a major cropping region. The regression-based and bioclimatic-based approaches to predicting pest abundance are compared and their utility in predicting and interpreting pest dynamics are discussed.

Reconciling paleodistribution models and comparative phylogeography in the Wet Tropics rainforest land snail Gnarosophia bellendenkerensis (Brazier 1875)

Comparative phylogeography has proved useful for investigating biological responses to past climate change and is strongest when combined with extrinsic hypotheses derived from the fossil record or geology. However, the rarity of species with sufficient, spatially explicit fossil evidence restricts the application of this method. Here, we develop an alternative approach in which spatial models of predicted species distributions under serial paleoclimates are compared with a molecular phylogeography, in this case for a snail endemic to the rainforests of North Queensland, Australia. We also compare the phylogeography of the snail to those from several endemic vertebrates and use consilience across all of these approaches to enhance biogeographical inference for this rainforest fauna. The snail mtDNA phylogeography is consistent with predictions from paleoclimate modeling in relation to the location and size of climatic refugia through the late Pleistocene-Holocene and broad patterns of extinction and recolonization. There is general agreement between quantitative estimates of population expansion from sequence data (using likelihood and coalescent methods) vs. distributional modeling. The snail phylogeography represents a composite of both common and idiosyncratic patterns seen among vertebrates, reflecting the geographically finer scale of persistence and subdivision in the snail. In general, this multifaceted approach, combining spatially explicit paleoclimatological models and comparative phylogeography, provides a powerful approach to locating historical refugia and understanding species' responses to them.

Water table waves in an unconfined aquifer: Experiments and modeling

[1] Comprehensive measurements are presented of the piezometric head in an unconfined aquifer during steady, simple harmonic oscillations driven by a hydrostatic clear water reservoir through a vertical interface. The results are analyzed and used to test existing hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic, small-amplitude theories along with capillary fringe effects. As expected, the amplitude of the water table wave decays exponentially. However, the decay rates and phase lags indicate the influence of both vertical flow and capillary effects. The capillary effects are reconciled with observations of water table oscillations in a sand column with the same sand. The effects of vertical flows and the corresponding nonhydrostatic pressure are reasonably well described by small-amplitude theory for water table waves in finite depth aquifers. That includes the oscillation amplitudes being greater at the bottom than at the top and the phase lead of the bottom compared with the top. The main problems with respect to interpreting the measurements through existing theory relate to the complicated boundary condition at the interface between the driving head reservoir and the aquifer. That is, the small-amplitude, finite depth expansion solution, which matches a hydrostatic boundary condition between the bottom and the mean driving head level, is unrealistic with respect to the pressure variation above this level. Hence it cannot describe the finer details of the multiple mode behavior close to the driving head boundary. The mean water table height initially increases with distance from the forcing boundary but then decreases again, and its asymptotic value is considerably smaller than that previously predicted for finite depth aquifers without capillary effects. Just as the mean water table over-height is smaller than predicted by capillarity-free shallow aquifer models, so is the amplitude of the second harmonic. In fact, there is no indication of extra second harmonics ( in addition to that contained in the driving head) being generated at the interface or in the interior.

Hydrodynamics and mass transfer coefficient in activated sludge aerated stirred column reactor: Experimental analysis and modeling

The aerated stirred reactor (ASR) has been widely used in biochemical and wastewater treatment processes. The information describing how the activated sludge properties and operation conditions affect the hydrodynamics and mass transfer coefficient is missing in the literature. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of flow regime, superficial gas velocity (U-G), power consumption unit (P/V-L), sludge loading, and apparent viscosity (pap) of activated sludge fluid on the mixing time (t(m)), gas hold-up (epsilon), and volumetric mass transfer coefficient (kLa) in an activated sludge aerated stirred column reactor (ASCR). The activated sludge fluid performed a non-Newtonian rheological behavior. The sludge loading significantly affected the fluid hydrodynamics and mass transfer. With an increase in the UG and P/V-L, the epsilon and k(L)a increased, and the t(m), decreased. The E, kLa, and tm,were influenced dramatically as the flow regime changed from homogeneous to heterogeneous patterns. The proposed mathematical models predicted the experimental results well under experimental conditions, indicating that the U-G, P/V-L, and mu(ap) had significant impact on the t(m) epsilon, and k(L)a. These models were able to give the tm, F, and kLa values with an error around +/- 8%, and always less than +/- 10%. (c) 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Elliptic Gaudin models and elliptic KZ equations

The Gaudin models based on the face-type elliptic quantum groups and the XYZ Gaudin models are studied. The Gaudin model Hamiltonians are constructed and are diagonalized by using the algebraic Bethe ansatz method. The corresponding face-type Knizhnik–Zamolodchikov equations and their solutions are given.

Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Supersymmetric t-J Gaudin models and KZ equations

Supersymmetric t-J Gaudin models with open boundary conditions are investigated by means of the algebraic Bethe ansatz method. Off-shell Bethe ansatz equations of the boundary Gaudin systems are derived, and used to construct and solve the KZ equations associated with sl (2\1)((1)) superalgebra.

Surface stickiness of drops of carbohydrate and organic acid solutions during convective drying: Experiments and modeling

Drying kinetics of low molecular weight sugars such as fructose, glucose, sucrose and organic acid such as citric acid and high molecular weight carbohydrate such as maltodextrin (DE 6) were determined experimentally using single drop drying experiments as well as predicted numerically by solving the mass and heat transfer equations. The predicted moisture and temperature histories agreed with the experimental ones within 6% average relative (absolute) error and average difference of +/- 1degreesC, respectively. The stickiness histories of these drops were determined experimentally and predicted numerically based on the glass transition temperature (T-g) of surface layer. The model predicted the experimental observations with good accuracy. A nonsticky regime for these materials during spray drying is proposed by simulating a drop, initially 120 mum in diameter, in a spray drying environment.

Electromagnetic fields inside a lossy, multilayered spherical head phantom excited by MRI coils: models and methods

The precise evaluation of electromagnetic field (EMF) distributions inside biological samples is becoming an increasingly important design requirement for high field MRI systems. In evaluating the induced fields caused by magnetic field gradients and RF transmitter coils, a multilayered dielectric spherical head model is proposed to provide a better understanding of electromagnetic interactions when compared to a traditional homogeneous head phantom. This paper presents Debye potential (DP) and Dyadic Green's function (DGF)-based solutions of the EMFs inside a head-sized, stratified sphere with similar radial conductivity and permittivity profiles as a human head. The DP approach is formulated for the symmetric case in which the source is a circular loop carrying a harmonic-formed current over a wide frequency range. The DGF method is developed for generic cases in which the source may be any kind of RF coil whose current distribution can be evaluated using the method of moments. The calculated EMFs can then be used to deduce MRI imaging parameters. The proposed methods, while not representing the full complexity of a head model, offer advantages in rapid prototyping as the computation times are much lower than a full finite difference time domain calculation using a complex head model. Test examples demonstrate the capability of the proposed models/methods. It is anticipated that this model will be of particular value for high field MRI applications, especially the rapid evaluation of RF resonator (surface and volume coils) and high performance gradient set designs.

Comparison of beam theory and finite-element analysis with in vivo bone strain data from the alligator cranium

The mechanical behavior of the vertebrate skull is often modeled using free-body analysis of simple geometric structures and, more recently, finite-element (FE) analysis. In this study, we compare experimentally collected in vivo bone strain orientations and magnitudes from the cranium of the American alligator with those extrapolated from a beam model and extracted from an FE model. The strain magnitudes predicted from beam and FE skull models bear little similarity to relative and absolute strain magnitudes recorded during in vivo biting experiments. However, quantitative differences between principal strain orientations extracted from the FE skull model and recorded during the in vivo experiments were smaller, and both generally matched expectations from the beam model. The differences in strain magnitude between the data sets may be attributable to the level of resolution of the models, the material properties used in the FE model, and the loading conditions (i.e., external forces and constraints). This study indicates that FE models and modeling of skulls as simple engineering structures may give a preliminary idea of how these structures are loaded, but whenever possible, modeling results should be verified with either in vitro or preferably in vivo testing, especially if precise knowledge of strain magnitudes is desired. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Reply to comment by A. G. J. Hilberts and P. A. Troch on "Influence of capillarity on a simple harmonic oscillating water table: Sand column experiments and modeling"

We thank Hilberts and Troch [2006] for their comment on our paper [Cartwright et al, 2005]. Before proceeding with our specific replies to the comments we would first like to clarify the definitions and meanings of equations (1)-(3) as presented by Hilberts and Troch [2006]. First, equation (1) is the fundamental definition of the (complex) effective porosity as derived by Nielsen and Perrochet [2000]. Equations (2) and (3), however, represent the linear frequency response function of the water table in the sand column responding to simple harmonic forcing. This function, which was validated by Nielsen and Perrochet [2000], provides an alternative method for estimating the complex effective porosity from the experimental sand column data in the absence of direct measurements of h_(tot) (which are required if equation (1) is to be used).

Developing context-aware pervasive computing applications: Models and approach

There is growing interest in the use of context-awareness as a technique for developing pervasive computing applications that are flexible, adaptable, and capable of acting autonomously on behalf of users. However, context-awareness introduces a variety of software engineering challenges. In this paper, we address these challenges by proposing a set of conceptual models designed to support the software engineering process, including context modelling techniques, a preference model for representing context-dependent requirements, and two programming models. We also present a software infrastructure and software engineering process that can be used in conjunction with our models. Finally, we discuss a case study that demonstrates the strengths of our models and software engineering approach with respect to a set of software quality metrics.