How do practitioners use conceptual modeling in practice?

Much research has been devoted over the years to investigating and advancing the techniques and tools used by analysts when they model. As opposed to what academics, software providers and their resellers promote as should be happening, the aim of this research was to determine whether practitioners still embraced conceptual modeling seriously. In addition, what are the most popular techniques and tools used for conceptual modeling? What are the major purposes for which conceptual modeling is used? The study found that the top six most frequently used modeling techniques and methods were ER diagramming, data flow diagramming, systems flowcharting, workflow modeling, UML, and structured charts. Modeling technique use was found to decrease significantly from smaller to medium-sized organizations, but then to increase significantly in larger organizations (proxying for large, complex projects). Technique use was also found to significantly follow an inverted U-shaped curve, contrary to some prior explanations. Additionally, an important contribution of this study was the identification of the factors that uniquely influence the decision of analysts to continue to use modeling, viz., communication (using diagrams) to/from stakeholders, internal knowledge (lack of) of techniques, user expectations management, understanding models' integration into the business, and tool/software deficiencies. The highest ranked purposes for which modeling was undertaken were database design and management, business process documentation, business process improvement, and software development. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A study of the evolution of the representational capabilities of process modeling grammars

A plethora of process modeling techniques has been proposed over the years. One way of evaluating and comparing the scope and completeness of techniques is by way of representational analysis. The purpose of this paper is to examine how process modeling techniques have developed over the last four decades. The basis of the comparison is the Bunge-Wand-Weber representation model, a benchmark used for the analysis of grammars that purport to model the real world and the interactions within it. This paper presents a comparison of representational analyses of several popular process modeling techniques and has two main outcomes. First, it provides insights, within the boundaries of a representational analysis, into the extent to which process modeling techniques have developed over time. Second, the findings also indicate areas in which the underlying theory seems to be over-engineered or lacking in specialization.

Experimental study of phase equilibria in the system PbO-ZnO-SiO2

An experimental study on the ternary system PbO-ZnO-SiO2, in air by high-temperature equilibration and quenching techniques followed by electron probe X-ray microanalysis was carried out as part of the wider research program on the six-component system PbO-ZnO-SiO2-CaO-FeO-Fe2O3, which combines experimental and thermodynamic computer modeling techniques to characterize zinc and lead industrial slags. Liquidus and solidus data were reported for all primary phase fields in the system PbO-ZnO-SiO2 in the temperature range 640 degrees C to 1400 degrees C (913 to 1673 K).

El Nino and arboviral disease prediction

Recent El Nino events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to Fl Nino. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.

Experimental study of phase equilibria in the systems Fe-Zn-O and Fe-Zn-Si-O at metallic iron saturation

The reported experimental work on the systems Fe-Zn-O and Fe-Zn-Si-O in equilibrium with metallic iron is part of a wider research program that combines experimental and thermodynamic computer modeling techniques to characterize zinc/lead industrial slags and sinters in the system PbO-ZnO-SiO2-CaO-FeO-Fe2O3. Extensive experimental,investigations using high-temperature equilibration and quenching techniques followed by electron probe X-ray microanalysis (EPMA) were carried out. Special experimental; procedures were developed to enable accurate measurements in these ZnO-containing systems to be performed in equilibrium with metallic iron; The systems Fe-Zn-O and FeZn-Si-O were experimentally investigated in equilibrium with metallic iron in the temperature ranges 900 degreesC to 1200 degreesC (1173 to 1473 K) and from 1000 degreesC to 1350 degreesC (1273 to 1623 K), respectively. The liquidus surface in the system Fe-Zn-Si-O in equilibrium with metallic iron was characterized in the composition ranges 0 to 33 wt pet ZnO and 0 to 40 wt pet SiO2. The wustite (Fe,Zn)O, zincite (Zn,Fe)O, willemite (Zn,Fe)(2)SiO4, arid fayalite: (Fe,Zn)(2)SiO4 solid solutions in equilibrium with metallic iron were measured.

Evaluating a model of parental influence on youth physical activity

Objective: To test a conceptual model linking parental physical activity orientations, parental support for physical activity, and children's self-efficacy perceptions with physical activity participation. Participants and Setting: The sample consisted of 380 students in grades 7 through 12 (mean age, 14.0 +/- 1.6 years) and their parents. Data collection took place during the fall of 1996. Main Outcome Measures: Parents completed a questionnaire assessing their physical activity habits, enjoyment of physical activity, beliefs regarding the importance of physical activity, and supportive behaviors for their child's physical activity. Students completed a 46-item inventory assessing physical activity during the previous 7 days and a 5-item physical activity self-efficacy scale. The model was tested via observed variable path analysis using structural equation modeling techniques (AMOS 4.0). Results: An initial model, in which parent physical activity orientations predicted child physical activity via parental support and child self-efficacy, did not provide an acceptable fit to the data. Inclusion of a direct path from parental support to child physical activity and deletion of a nonsignificant path from parental physical activity to child physical activity significantly improved model fit. Standardized path coefficients for the revised model ranged from 0.17 to 0.24, and all were significant at the p < 0.0001 level. Conclusions: Parental support was an important correlate of youth physical activity, acting directly or indirectly through its influence on self-efficacy. Physical activity interventions targeted at youth should include and evaluate the efficacy of individual-level and community-level strategies to increase parents' capacity to provide instrumental and motivational support for their children's physical activity.

Do process modelling techniques get better? A comparative ontological analysis of BPMN

Current initiatives in the field of Business Process Management (BPM) strive for the development of a BPM standard notation by pushing the Business Process Modeling Notation (BPMN). However, such a proposed standard notation needs to be carefully examined. Ontological analysis is an established theoretical approach to evaluating modelling techniques. This paper reports on the outcomes of an ontological analysis of BPMN and explores identified issues by reporting on interviews conducted with BPMN users in Australia. Complementing this analysis we consolidate our findings with previous ontological analyses of process modelling notations to deliver a comprehensive assessment of BPMN.

Patterns in complex systems modeling

The design, development, and use of complex systems models raises a unique class of challenges and potential pitfalls, many of which are commonly recurring problems. Over time, researchers gain experience in this form of modeling, choosing algorithms, techniques, and frameworks that improve the quality, confidence level, and speed of development of their models. This increasing collective experience of complex systems modellers is a resource that should be captured. Fields such as software engineering and architecture have benefited from the development of generic solutions to recurring problems, called patterns. Using pattern development techniques from these fields, insights from communities such as learning and information processing, data mining, bioinformatics, and agent-based modeling can be identified and captured. Collections of such 'pattern languages' would allow knowledge gained through experience to be readily accessible to less-experienced practitioners and to other domains. This paper proposes a methodology for capturing the wisdom of computational modelers by introducing example visualization patterns, and a pattern classification system for analyzing the relationship between micro and macro behaviour in complex systems models. We anticipate that a new field of complex systems patterns will provide an invaluable resource for both practicing and future generations of modelers.

Short-term electricity price forecasting using wavelet and SVM techniques

In deregulated electricity market, modeling and forecasting the spot price present a number of challenges. By applying wavelet and support vector machine techniques, a new time series model for short term electricity price forecasting has been developed in this paper. The model employs both historical price and other important information, such as load capacity and weather (temperature), to forecast the price of one or more time steps ahead. The developed model has been evaluated with the actual data from Australian National Electricity Market. The simulation results demonstrated that the forecast model is capable of forecasting the electricity price with a reasonable forecasting accuracy.

Computationally efficient solution techniques for adsorption problems involving steep gradients in bidisperse particles

A piecewise uniform fitted mesh method turns out to be sufficient for the solution of a surprisingly wide variety of singularly perturbed problems involving steep gradients. The technique is applied to a model of adsorption in bidisperse solids for which two fitted mesh techniques, a fitted-mesh finite difference method (FMFDM) and fitted mesh collocation method (FMCM) are presented. A combination (FMCMD) of FMCM and the DASSL integration package is found to be most effective in solving the problems. Numerical solutions (FMFDM and FMCMD) were found to match the analytical solution when the adsorption isotherm is linear, even under conditions involving steep gradients for which global collocation fails. In particular, FMCMD is highly efficient for macropore diffusion control or micropore diffusion control. These techniques are simple and there is no limit on the range of the parameters. The techniques can be applied to a variety of adsorption and desorption problems in bidisperse solids with non-linear isotherm and for arbitrary particle geometry.

From Midden to Sieve: The Impact of Differential Recovery and Quantification Techniques on Interpretations of Shellfish Remains in Australian Coastal Archaeology

Experimental mechanical sieving methods are applied to samples of shellfish remains from three sites in southeast Queensland, Seven Mile Creek Mound, Sandstone Point and One-Tree, to test the efficacy of various recovery and quantification procedures commonly applied to shellfish assemblages in Australia. There has been considerable debate regarding the most appropriate sieve sizes and quantification methods that should be applied in the recovery of vertebrate faunal remains. Few studies, however, have addressed the impact of recovery and quantification methods on the interpretation of invertebrates, specifically shellfish remains. In this study, five shellfish taxa representing four bivalves (Anadara trapezia, Trichomya hirsutus, Saccostrea glomerata, Donax deltoides) and one gastropod (Pyrazus ebeninus) common in eastern Australian midden assemblages are sieved through 10mm, 6.3mm and 3.15mm mesh. Results are quantified using MNI, NISP and weight. Analyses indicate that different structural properties and pre- and postdepositional factors affect recovery rates. Fragile taxa (T. hirsutus) or those with foliated structure (S. glomerata) tend to be overrepresented by NISP measures in smaller sieve fractions, while more robust taxa (A. trapezia and P. ebeninus) tend to be overrepresented by weight measures. Results demonstrate that for all quantification methods tested a 3mm sieve should be used on all sites to allow for regional comparability and to effectively collect all available information about the shellfish remains.