Estimation of pharmacokinetic parameters from non-compartmental variables using Microsoft Excel((R))

This study was conducted to develop a method, termed 'back analysis (BA)', for converting non-compartmental variables to compartment model dependent pharmacokinetic parameters for both one- and two-compartment models. A Microsoft Excel((R)) spreadsheet was implemented with the use of Solver((R)) and visual basic functions. The performance of the BA method in estimating pharmacokinetic parameter values was evaluated by comparing the parameter values obtained to a standard modelling software program, NONMEM, using simulated data. The results show that the BA method was reasonably precise and provided low bias in estimating fixed and random effect parameters for both one- and two-compartment models. The pharmacokinetic parameters estimated from the BA method were similar to those of NONMEM estimation.

Designs for generalized linear models with several variables and model uncertainty

Standard factorial designs sometimes may be inadequate for experiments that aim to estimate a generalized linear model, for example, for describing a binary response in terms of several variables. A method is proposed for finding exact designs for such experiments that uses a criterion allowing for uncertainty in the link function, the linear predictor, or the model parameters, together with a design search. Designs are assessed and compared by simulation of the distribution of efficiencies relative to locally optimal designs over a space of possible models. Exact designs are investigated for two applications, and their advantages over factorial and central composite designs are demonstrated.

Finite deformation model of simple shear of fault with microrotations: apparent strain localisation and en-echelon fracture pattern

Strain localisation is a widespread phenomenon often observed in shear and compressive loading of geomaterials, for example, the fault gouge. It is believed that the main mechanisms of strain localisation are strain softening and mismatch between dilatancy and pressure sensitivity. Observations show that gouge deformation is accompanied by considerable rotations of grains. In our previous work as a model for gouge material, we proposed a continuum description for an assembly of particles of equal radius in which the particle rotation is treated as an independent degree of freedom. We showed that there exist critical values of the model parameters for which the displacement gradient exhibits a pronounced localisation at the mid-surface layers of the fault, even in the absence of inelasticity. Here, we generalise the model to the case of finite deformations characteristic for the gouge deformation. We derive objective constitutive relationships relating the Jaumann rates of stress and moment stress to the relative strain and curvature rates, respectively. The model suggests that the pattern of localisation remains the same as in the linear case. However, the presence of the Jaumann terms leads to the emergence of non-zero normal stresses acting along and perpendicular to the shear layer (with zero hydrostatic pressure), and localised along the mid-line of the gouge; these stress components are absent in the linear model of simple shear. These additional normal stresses, albeit small, cause a change in the direction in which the maximal normal stresses act and in which en-echelon fracturing is formed.

The influence of substrate kinetics on the microbial community structure in granular anaerobic biomass

The development of a strong, active granular sludge bed is necessary for optimal operation of upflow anaerobic sludge blanket reactors. The microbial and mechanical structure of the granules may have a strong influence on desirable properties such as growth rate, settling velocity and shear strength. Theories have been proposed for granule microbial structure based on the relative kinetics of substrate degradation, but contradict some observations from both modelling and microscopic studies. In this paper, the structures of four granule types were examined from full-scale UASB reactors, treating wastewater from a cannery, a slaughterhouse, and two breweries. Microbial structure was determined using fluorescence in situ hybridisation probing with 16S rRNA-directed oligonucleotide probes, and superficial structure and microbial density (volume occupied by cells and microbial debris) assessed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The granules were also modelled using a distributed parameter biofilm model, with a previously published biochemical model structure, biofilm modelling approach, and model parameters. The model results reflected the trophic structures observed, indicating that the structures were possibly determined by kinetics. Of particular interest were results from simulations of the protein grown granules, which were predicted to have slow growth rates, low microbial density, and no trophic layers, the last two of which were reflected by microscopic observations. The primary cause of this structure, as assessed by modelling, was the particulate nature of the wastewater, and the slow rate of particulate hydrolysis, rather than the presence of proteins in the wastewater. Because solids hydrolysis was rate limiting, soluble substrate concentrations were very low (below Monod half saturation concentration), which caused low growth rates. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the possibility of elastic strain localisation in a fault

The phenomenon of strain localisation is often observed in shear deformation of particulate materials, e.g., fault gouge. This phenomenon is usually attributed to special types of plastic behaviour of the material (e.g., strain softening or mismatch between dilatancy and pressure sensitivity or both). Observations of strain localisation in situ or in experiments are usually based on displacement measurements and subsequent computation of the displacement gradient. While in conventional continua the symmetric part of the displacement gradient is equal to the strain, it is no longer the case in the more realistic descriptions within the framework of generalised continua. In such models the rotations of the gouge particles are considered as independent degrees of freedom the values of which usually differ from the rotation of an infinitesimal volume element of the continuum, the latter being described for infinitesimal deformations by the non-symmetric part of the displacement gradient. As a model for gouge material we propose a continuum description for an assembly of spherical particles of equal radius in which the particle rotation is treated as an independent degree of freedom. Based on this model we consider simple shear deformations of the fault gouge. We show that there exist values of the model parameters for which the displacement gradient exhibits a pronounced localisation at the mid-layers of the fault, even in the absence of inelasticity. Inelastic effects are neglected in order to highlight the role of the independent rotations and the associated additional parameters. The localisation-like behaviour occurs if (a) the particle rotations on the boundary of the shear layer are constrained (this type of boundary condition does not exist in a standard continuum) and (b) the contact moment-or bending stiffness is much smaller than the product of the effective shear modulus of the granulate and the square of the width of the gouge layer. It should be noted however that the virtual work functional is positive definite over the range of physically meaningful parameters (here: contact stiffnesses, solid volume fraction and coordination number) so that strictly speaking we are not dealing with a material instability.

Accelerating precursory activity within a class of earthquake analogue automata

A statistical fractal automaton model is described which displays two modes of dynamical behaviour. The first mode, termed recurrent criticality, is characterised by quasi-periodic, characteristic events that are preceded by accelerating precursory activity. The second mode is more reminiscent of SOC automata in which large events are not preceded by an acceleration in activity. Extending upon previous studies of statistical fractal automata, a redistribution law is introduced which incorporates two model parameters: a dissipation factor and a stress transfer ratio. Results from a parameter space investigation indicate that a straight line through parameter space marks a transition from recurrent criticality to unpredictable dynamics. Recurrent criticality only occurs for models within one corner of the parameter space. The location of the transition displays a simple dependence upon the fractal correlation dimension of the cell strength distribution. Analysis of stress field evolution indicates that recurrent criticality occurs in models with significant long-range stress correlations. A constant rate of activity is associated with a decorrelated stress field.

Adsorption of p-nitrophenol in untreated and treated activated carbon

The adsorption of p-nitrophenol in one untreated activated carbon (F100) and three treated activated carbons (H-2, H2SO4 and Urea treated F100) was carried out at undissociated and dissociated conditions. To characterize the carbon, N-2 and CO2 adsorption were used. X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) was used to analyze the surface of the activated carbon. The experimental isotherms are fitted via the Langmuir homogenous model and Langmuir binary model. Variation of the model parameters with the solution pH is studied. Both Q(max) and the adsorption affinity coefficient (K-1) were dependent on the PZC of the carbons and solution pH. The Effect of pH must be considered due to its combined effects on the carbon surface and on the solute molecules. Adsorption of p-nitrophenol at higher pH was found to be dependent on the concentration of the anionic form of the solute.

Estimation of adsorption capacity for dissociating and non dissociating aromatic compounds on activated carbon with different models

The process of adsorption of two dissociating and two non-dissociating aromatic compounds from dilute aqueous solutions on an untreated commercially available activated carbon (B.D.H.) was investigated systematically. All adsorption experiments were carried out in pH controlled aqueous solutions. The experimental isotherms were fitted into four different models (Langmuir homogenous Models, Langmuir binary Model, Langmuir-Freundlich single model and Langmuir-Freundlich double model). Variation of the model parameters with the solution pH was studied and used to gain further insight into the adsorption process. The relationship between the model parameters and the solution pH and pK(a) was used to predict the adsorption capacity in molecular and ionic form of solutes in other solution. A relationship was sought to predict the effect of pH on the adsorption systems and for estimating the maximum adsorption capacity of carbon at any pH where the solute is ionized reasonably well. N-2 and CO2 adsorption were used to characterize the carbon. X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) measurement was used for surface elemental analysis of the activated carbon.

On the estimation and comparison of short-rate models using the generalised method of moments

Subsequent to the influential paper of [Chan, K.C., Karolyi, G.A., Longstaff, F.A., Sanders, A.B., 1992. An empirical comparison of alternative models of the short-term interest rate. Journal of Finance 47, 1209-1227], the generalised method of moments (GMM) has been a popular technique for estimation and inference relating to continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate. GMM has been widely employed to estimate model parameters and to assess the goodness-of-fit of competing short-rate specifications. The current paper conducts a series of simulation experiments to document the bias and precision of GMM estimates of short-rate parameters, as well as the size and power of [Hansen, L.P., 1982. Large sample properties of generalised method of moments estimators. Econometrica 50, 1029-1054], J-test of over-identifying restrictions. While the J-test appears to have appropriate size and good power in sample sizes commonly encountered in the short-rate literature, GMM estimates of the speed of mean reversion are shown to be severely biased. Consequently, it is dangerous to draw strong conclusions about the strength of mean reversion using GMM. In contrast, the parameter capturing the levels effect, which is important in differentiating between competing short-rate specifications, is estimated with little bias. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Slowing down a pine invasion despite uncertainty in demography and dispersal

1. Management decisions regarding invasive plants often have to be made quickly and in the face of fragmentary knowledge of their population dynamics. However, recommendations are commonly made on the basis of only a restricted set of parameters. Without addressing uncertainty and variability in model parameters we risk ineffective management, resulting in wasted resources and an escalating problem if early chances to control spread are missed. 2. Using available data for Pinus nigra in ungrazed and grazed grassland and shrubland in New Zealand, we parameterized a stage-structured spread model to calculate invasion wave speed, population growth rate and their sensitivities and elasticities to population parameters. Uncertainty distributions of parameters were used with the model to generate confidence intervals (CI) about the model predictions. 3. Ungrazed grassland environments were most vulnerable to invasion and the highest elasticities and sensitivities of invasion speed were to long-distance dispersal parameters. However, there was overlap between the elasticity and sensitivity CI on juvenile survival, seedling establishment and long-distance dispersal parameters, indicating overlap in their effects on invasion speed. 4. While elasticity of invasion speed to long-distance dispersal was highest in shrubland environments, there was overlap with the CI of elasticity to juvenile survival. In shrubland invasion speed was most sensitive to the probability of establishment, especially when establishment was low. In the grazed environment elasticity and sensitivity of invasion speed to the severity of grazing were consistently highest. Management recommendations based on elasticities and sensitivities depend on the vulnerability of the habitat. 5. Synthesis and applications. Despite considerable uncertainty in demography and dispersal, robust management recommendations emerged from the model. Proportional or absolute reductions in long-distance dispersal, juvenile survival and seedling establishment parameters have the potential to reduce wave speed substantially. Plantations of wind-dispersed invasive conifers should not be sited on exposed sites vulnerable to long-distance dispersal events, and trees in these sites should be removed. Invasion speed can also be reduced by removing seedlings, establishing competitive shrubs and grazing. Incorporating uncertainty into the modelling process increases our confidence in the wide applicability of the management strategies recommended here.

Matching conditional moments in PDF modelling of nonpremixed combustion

The rate of generation of fluctuations with respect to the scalar values conditioned on the mixture fraction, which significantly affects turbulent nonpremixed combustion processes, is examined. Simulation of the rate in a major mixing model is investigated and the derived equations can assist in selecting the model parameters so that the level of conditional fluctuations is better reproduced by the models. A more general formulation of the multiple mapping conditioning (MMC) model that distinguishes the reference and conditioning variables is suggested. This formulation can be viewed as a methodology of enforcing certain desired conditional properties onto conventional mixing models. Examples of constructing consistent MMC models with dissipation and velocity conditioning as well as of combining MMC with large eddy simulations (LES) are also provided. (c) 2005 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of different models of water recovery in flotation

Water recovery is one of the key parameters in flotation modelling for the purposes of plant design and process control, as it determines the circulating flow and residence time in the individual process units in the plant and has a significant effect on entrainment and froth recovery. This paper reviews some of the water recovery models available in the literature, including both empirical and fundamental models. The selected models are tested using the data obtained from the experimental work conducted in an Outokumpu 3 m(3) tank cell at the Xstrata Mt Isa copper concentrator. It is found that all the models fit the experimental data reasonably well for a given flotation system. However, the empirical models are either unable to distinguish the effect of different cell operating conditions or required to determine the empirical model parameters to be derived in an existing flotation system. The model developed by [Neethling, SJ., Lee, H.T., Cilliers, J.J., 2003, Simple relationships for predicting the recovery of liquid from flowing foams and froths. Minerals Engineering 16, 1123-1130] is based on fundamental understanding of the froth structure and transfer of the water in the froth. It describes the water recovery as a function of the cell operating conditions and the froth properties which can all be determined on-line. Hence, the fundamental model can be used for process control purposes in practice. By incorporating additional models to relate the air recovery and surface bubble size directly to the cell operating conditions, the fundamental model can also be used for prediction purposes. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional patterns of agricultural land use and deforestation in Colombia

An expanding human population and associated demands for goods and services continues to exert an increasing pressure on ecological systems. Although the rate of expansion of agricultural lands has slowed since 1960, rapid deforestation still occurs in many tropical countries, including Colombia. However, the location and extent of deforestation and associated ecological impacts within tropical countries is often not well known. The primary aim of this study was to obtain an understanding of the spatial patterns of forest conversion for agricultural land uses in Colombia. We modeled native forest conversion in Colombia at regional and national-levels using logistic regression and classification trees. We investigated the impact of ignoring the regional variability of model parameters, and identified biophysical and socioeconomic factors that best explain the current spatial pattern and inter-regional variation in forest cover. We validated our predictions for the Amazon region using MODIS satellite imagery. The regional-level classification tree that accounted for regional heterogeneity had the greatest discrimination ability. Factors related to accessibility (distance to roads and towns) were related to the presence of forest cover, although this relationship varied regionally. In order to identify areas with a high risk of deforestation, we used predictions from the best model, refined by areas with rural population growth rates of > 2%. We ranked forest ecosystem types in terms of levels of threat of conversion. Our results provide useful inputs to planning for biodiversity conservation in Colombia, by identifying areas and ecosystem types that are vulnerable to deforestation. Several of the predicted deforestation hotspots coincide with areas that are outstanding in terms of biodiversity value.

Using the floatability characterisation test rig for industrial flotation plant design

Industrial flotation plant design is a complex process involving many aspects, one of which is the use of pilot-scale plants to test industrial plant flow sheets. Once test work on a pilot-scale has been performed, scale-up of these results to the full-scale plant must be performed. This paper describes scale-up test work performed on the Floatability Characterisation Test Rig (FCTR). The FCTR is a self-contained, highly instrumented mobile pilot plant designed to determine flotation model parameters and to develop and validate flotation plant modelling, scale-up and simulation methodologies.

Methods for Categorical Longitudinal Survey Data: Understanding Employment Status of Australian Women

Many variables that are of interest in social science research are nominal variables with two or more categories, such as employment status, occupation, political preference, or self-reported health status. With longitudinal survey data it is possible to analyse the transitions of individuals between different employment states or occupations (for example). In the statistical literature, models for analysing categorical dependent variables with repeated observations belong to the family of models known as generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). The specific GLMM for a dependent variable with three or more categories is the multinomial logit random effects model. For these models, the marginal distribution of the response does not have a closed form solution and hence numerical integration must be used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates for the model parameters. Techniques for implementing the numerical integration are available but are computationally intensive requiring a large amount of computer processing time that increases with the number of clusters (or individuals) in the data and are not always readily accessible to the practitioner in standard software. For the purposes of analysing categorical response data from a longitudinal social survey, there is clearly a need to evaluate the existing procedures for estimating multinomial logit random effects model in terms of accuracy, efficiency and computing time. The computational time will have significant implications as to the preferred approach by researchers. In this paper we evaluate statistical software procedures that utilise adaptive Gaussian quadrature and MCMC methods, with specific application to modeling employment status of women using a GLMM, over three waves of the HILDA survey.