Diagnostic goal driven modelling and simulation of multiscale process systems

A systematic goal-driven top-down modelling methodology is proposed that is capable of developing a multiscale model of a process system for given diagnostic purposes. The diagnostic goal-set and the symptoms are extracted from HAZOP analysis results, where the possible actions to be performed in a fault situation are also described. The multiscale dynamic model is realized in the form of a hierarchical coloured Petri net by using a novel substitution place-transition pair. Multiscale simulation that focuses automatically on the fault areas is used to predict the effect of the proposed preventive actions. The notions and procedures are illustrated on some simple case studies including a heat exchanger network and a more complex wet granulation process.

Development of a dosage strategy in patients receiving enoxaparin by continuous intravenous infusion using modelling and simulation

Aim To develop an appropriate dosing strategy for continuous intravenous infusions (CII) of enoxaparin by minimizing the percentage of steady-state anti-Xa concentration (C-ss) outside the therapeutic range of 0.5-1.2 IU ml(-1). Methods A nonlinear mixed effects model was developed with NONMEM (R) for 48 adult patients who received CII of enoxaparin with infusion durations that ranged from 8 to 894 h at rates between 100 and 1600 IU h(-1). Three hundred and sixty-three anti-Xa concentration measurements were available from patients who received CII. These were combined with 309 anti-Xa concentrations from 35 patients who received subcutaneous enoxaparin. The effects of age, body size, height, sex, creatinine clearance (CrCL) and patient location [intensive care unit (ICU) or general medical unit] on pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters were evaluated. Monte Carlo simulations were used to (i) evaluate covariate effects on C-ss and (ii) compare the impact of different infusion rates on predicted C-ss. The best dose was selected based on the highest probability that the C-ss achieved would lie within the therapeutic range. Results A two-compartment linear model with additive and proportional residual error for general medical unit patients and only a proportional error for patients in ICU provided the best description of the data. Both CrCL and weight were found to affect significantly clearance and volume of distribution of the central compartment, respectively. Simulations suggested that the best doses for patients in the ICU setting were 50 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (4.2 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL < 30 ml min(-1); 60 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (5.0 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL was 30-50 ml min(-1); and 70 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (5.8 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL > 50 ml min(-1). The best doses for patients in the general medical unit were 60 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (5.0 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL < 30 ml min(-1); 70 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (5.8 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL was 30-50 ml min(-1); and 100 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (8.3 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL > 50 ml min(-1). These best doses were selected based on providing the lowest equal probability of either being above or below the therapeutic range and the highest probability that the C-ss achieved would lie within the therapeutic range. Conclusion The dose of enoxaparin should be individualized to the patients' renal function and weight. There is some evidence to support slightly lower doses of CII enoxaparin in patients in the ICU setting.

Oscillatory regulation of hes1: Discrete stochastic delay modelling and simulation

Discrete stochastic simulations are a powerful tool for understanding the dynamics of chemical kinetics when there are small-to-moderate numbers of certain molecular species. In this paper we introduce delays into the stochastic simulation algorithm, thus mimicking delays associated with transcription and translation. We then show that this process may well explain more faithfully than continuous deterministic models the observed sustained oscillations in expression levels of hes1 mRNA and Hes1 protein.

Construction of an Intraplate Fault System Model of South Australia, and Simulation Tool for the iSERVO Institute Seed Project

To foster ongoing international cooperation beyond ACES (APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation) on the simulation of solid earth phenomena, agreement was reached to work towards establishment of a frontier international research institute for simulating the solid earth: iSERVO = International Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory institute (http://www.iservo.edu.au). This paper outlines a key Australian contribution towards the iSERVO institute seed project, this is the construction of: (1) a typical intraplate fault system model using practical fault system data of South Australia (i.e., SA interacting fault model), which includes data management and editing, geometrical modeling and mesh generation; and (2) a finite-element based software tool, which is built on our long-term and ongoing effort to develop the R-minimum strategy based finite-element computational algorithm and software tool for modelling three-dimensional nonlinear frictional contact behavior between multiple deformable bodies with the arbitrarily-shaped contact element strategy. A numerical simulation of the SA fault system is carried out using this software tool to demonstrate its capability and our efforts towards seeding the iSERVO Institute.

Spontaneous combustion and simulation of mine fires and their effects on mine ventilation systems

The structure of a comprehensive research project into mine fires study applying the Ventgraph mine fire simulation software, preplanning of escape scenarios and general interaction with rescue responses is outlined. The project has Australian Coal Association Research Program (ACARP) funding and also relies on substantial mining company site support. This practical input from mine operators is essential and allows the approach to be introduced in the most creditable way. The effort is built around the introduction of fire simulation computer software to the Australian mining industry and the consequent modelling of fire scenarios in selected different mine layouts. Application of the simulation software package to the changing mine layouts requires experience to achieve realistic outcomes. Most Australian mines of size currently use a ventilation network simulation program. Under the project a small subroutine has been written to transfer the input data from the existing mine ventilation network simulation program to ‘Ventgraph’. This has been tested successfully. To understand fire simulation behaviour on the mine ventilation system, it is necessary to understood the possible effects of mine fires on various mine ventilation systems correctly first. Case studies demonstrating the possible effects of fires on some typical Australian coal mine ventilation circuits have been examined. The situation in which there is some gas make at the face and effects with fire have also been developed to emphasise how unstable and dangerous situations may arise. The primary objective of the part of the study described in this paper is to use mine fire simulation software to gain better understanding of how spontaneous combustion initiated fires can interact with the complex ventilation behaviour underground during a substantial fire. It focuses on the simulation of spontaneous combustion sourced heatings that develop into open fires. Further, it examines ventilation behaviour effects of spontaneous combustion initiated pillar fires and examines the difficulties these can be present if a ventilation reversal occurs. It also briefly examines simulation of use of the inertisation to assist in mine recovery. Mine fires are recognised across the world as a major hazard issue. New approaches allowing improvement in understanding their consequences have been developed as an aid in handling this complex area.

Poverty - dynamic and sustainability perspectives: Implications for welfare and policy with reference to India

After outlining some comparative features of poverty in India, this article reviews critically recent literature on the dynamics of poverty. On economic efficiency grounds, it rejects the view that the chronically poor are more deserving than the non-chronic poor of poverty assistance. Mechanisms of households and communities for coping with poverty are discussed. The possibility is raised that where poverty has been persistent that rational methods for coping with it are likely to be well established, and less suffering may occur than for households and communities thrown temporarily into poverty. However, situations can also be envisaged where such rational behaviours deepen the poverty trap and create unfavourable externalities for poverty alleviation. Conflict can arise between programmes to alleviate poverty in poor communities and the sustainability of these communities and their local cultures. Problems posed by this are discussed. Furthermore, the impact of market extension on poor landholders is considered. In contrast to the prevailing view that increased market extension and liberalisation is favourable to poor farmers, it is argued that inescapable market transaction cost makes it difficult for the poor to survive as landholders in a fluid and changing market system. The likelihood of poor landholders joining the landless poor rises, and if they migrate from the countryside to the city they face further adjustment hurdles. Consequently, poor landholders may be poorer after the extension of the market system and only their offspring may reap benefits from market reforms.

Universal quantum computation and simulation using any entangling Hamiltonian and local unitaries

What interactions are sufficient to simulate arbitrary quantum dynamics in a composite quantum system? We provide an efficient algorithm to simulate any desired two-body Hamiltonian evolution using any fixed two-body entangling n-qubit Hamiltonian and local unitary operations. It follows that universal quantum computation can be performed using any entangling interaction and local unitary operations.