Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Destination image, romance and place experience - an application of intimacy theory in tourism

In some forms of tourism, and perhaps particularly in the case of special interest tourism, it can be argued that tourism encounters are service relationships with emotional attachment through the special interest focus and a level of enduring involvement on the part of participants. This involvement is two-fold. First, an interest with the activity; second, a sharing with like-minded people in a social world that extends from home to tourist destination and return. Intimacies in tourism can thus be interpreted through the model of the relationship cycle that comprises the stages A. Aquaintance, B, Buildup, C, Continuation and D, Dissolution. The paper builds upon this concept by utilising ideas of other-centred and self-centredness in personal relationships, and extends the concept of other-centredness to host environments. It also suggests that, in the academic literature about place, location may be secondary in that the quality of experience is primarily determined by the intimacies that exist between people at that place, especially that existing between visitors. © 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of heroin detoxification methods in the Australian National Evaluation of Pharmacotherapies for Opioid Dependence (NEPOD)

This economic evaluation was part of the Australian National Evaluation of Pharmacotherapies for Opioid Dependence (NEPOD) project. Data from four trials of heroin detoxification methods, involving 365 participants, were pooled to enable a comprehensive comparison of the cost-effectiveness of five inpatient and outpatient detoxification methods. This study took the perspective of the treatment provider in assessing resource use and costs. Two short-term outcome measures were used-achievement of an initial 7-day period of abstinence, and entry into ongoing post-detoxification treatment. The mean costs of the various detoxification methods ranged widely, from AUD $491 (buprenorphine-based outpatient); to AUD $605 for conventional outpatient; AUD $1404 for conventional inpatient; AUD $1990 for rapid detoxification under sedation; and to AUD $2689 for anaesthesia per episode. An incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was carried out using conventional outpatient detoxification as the base comparator. The buprenorphine-based outpatient detoxification method was found to be the most cost-effective method overall, and rapid opioid detoxification under sedation was the most costeffective inpatient method.

Managing knowledge in tourism planning: How to assess your capability

This paper explores the theme of strategic planning in a State Tourism Organization (STO) from a knowledge management perspective. It highlights the value of knowledge in strategy making and the importance of an organisation's knowledge management agenda in facilitating a strategic planning process. In particular, it considers the capability of an STO to implement knowledge management as the key to a successful strategic planning exercise. In order to develop greater insight into the factors that impact on planning competence, the key aim of this paper is to develop a framework on which the capability of a STO to implement a knowledge-based agenda in strategic planning can be assessed. Research on knowledge management in the field of tourism is limited and there is little practical account of the application of knowledge management principles in tourism planning. Further, there is no apparent tool or instrument that allows for the assessment of an STO's capability to implement knowledge management in planning initiatives. Based on a literature review, a three-point framework of assessment is developed. The three elements of the framework are identified as: 1. Integration of knowledge management objectives with strategic imperatives; 2. A planning approach that balances top-down (outcome focused) with bottom-up (process focused) planning processes; and 3. Organisational capacity, including leadership, people and culture, process, technology, content and continuous improvement. The framework is tested through application to a practical case study - a planning initiative undertaken by a leading tourism STO in Australia. The results demonstrate that the framework is a useful means to evaluate organisational capability in knowledge-led strategic planning exercises and would be of practical value as a point of reference for future knowledge- based strategic planning projects. Copyright © by The Haworth Press, Inc. All rights reserved.

Incorporating level set methods in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) for land-surface process modelling

Land-surface processes include a broad class of models that operate at a landscape scale. Current modelling approaches tend to be specialised towards one type of process, yet it is the interaction of processes that is increasing seen as important to obtain a more integrated approach to land management. This paper presents a technique and a tool that may be applied generically to landscape processes. The technique tracks moving interfaces across landscapes for processes such as water flow, biochemical diffusion, and plant dispersal. Its theoretical development applies a Lagrangian approach to motion over a Eulerian grid space by tracking quantities across a landscape as an evolving front. An algorithm for this technique, called level set method, is implemented in a geographical information system (GIS). It fits with a field data model in GIS and is implemented as operators in map algebra. The paper describes an implementation of the level set methods in a map algebra programming language, called MapScript, and gives example program scripts for applications in ecology and hydrology.