SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

The role of habitat disturbance and recovery in metapopulation persistence

Classical metapopulation theory assumes a static landscape. However, empirical evidence indicates many metapopulations are driven by habitat succession and disturbance. We develop a stochastic metapopulation model, incorporating habitat disturbance and recovery, coupled with patch colonization and extinction, to investigate the effect of habitat dynamics on persistence. We discover that habitat dynamics play a fundamental role in metapopulation dynamics. The mean number of suitable habitat patches is not adequate for characterizing the dynamics of the metapopulation. For a fixed mean number of suitable patches, we discover that the details of how disturbance affects patches and how patches recover influences metapopulation dynamics in a fundamental way. Moreover, metapopulation persistence is dependent not only oil the average lifetime of a patch, but also on the variance in patch lifetime and the synchrony in patch dynamics that results from disturbance. Finally, there is an interaction between the habitat and metapopulation dynamics, for instance declining metapopulations react differently to habitat dynamics than expanding metapopulations. We close, emphasizing the importance of using performance measures appropriate to stochastic systems when evaluating their behavior, such as the probability distribution of the state of the. metapopulation, conditional on it being extant (i.e., the quasistationary distribution).

Marine protected areas for spatially structured exploited stocks

Many harvested marine and terrestrial populations have segments of their range protected in areas free from exploitation. Reasons for areas being protected from harvesting include conservation, tourism, research, protection of breeding grounds, stock recovery, harvest regulation, or habitat that is uneconomical to exploit. In this paper we consider the problem of optimally exploiting a single species local population that is connected by dispersing larvae to an unharvested local population. We define a spatially-explicit population dynamics model and apply dynamic optimization techniques to determine policies for harvesting the exploited patch. We then consider how reservation affects yield and spawning stock abundance when compared to policies that have not recognised the spatial structure of the metapopulation. Comparisons of harvest strategies between an exploited metapopulation with and without a harvest refuge are also made. Results show that in a 2 local population metapopulation with unidirectional larval transfer, the optimal exploitation of the harvested population should be conducted as if it were independent of the reserved population. Numerical examples suggest that relative source populations should be exploited if the objective is to maximise spawning stock abundance within a harvested metapopulation that includes a protected local population. However, this strategy can markedly reduce yield over a sink harvested reserve system and may require strict regulation for conservation goals to be realised. If exchange rates are high, results indicate that spawning stock abundance can be less in a reserve system than in a fully exploited metapopulation. In order to maximise economic gain in the reserve system, results indicate that relative sink populations should be harvested. Depending on transfer levels, loss in harvest through reservation can be minimal, and is likely to be compensated by the potential environmental and economic benefits of the reserve.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Estimates of sex- and age-class-specific survival probabilities for a southern Great Barrier Reef green sea turtle population

Sex- and age-class-specific survival probabilities of a southern Great Barrier Reef green sea turtle population were estimated using a capture - mark - recapture (CMR) study and a Cormack - Jolly - Seber (CJS) modelling approach. The CMR history profiles for 954 individual turtles tagged over a 9-year period ( 1984 - 1992) were classified into three age classes ( adult, subadult, juvenile) based on somatic growth and reproductive traits. Reduced-parameter CJS models, accounting for constant survival and time-specific recapture, fitted best for all age classes. There were no significant sex-specific differences in either survival or recapture probabilities for any age class. Mean annual adult survival was estimated at 0.9482 (95% CI: 0.92 - 0.98) and was significantly higher than survival for either subadults or juveniles. Mean annual subadult survival was 0.8474 ( 95% CI: 0.79 - 0.91), which was not significantly different from mean annual juvenile survival estimated at 0.8804 ( 95% CI: 0.84 - 0.93). The time-specific adult recapture probabilities were a function of sampling effort but this was not the case for either juveniles or subadults. The sampling effort effect was accounted for explicitly in the estimation of adult survival and recapture probabilities. These are the first comprehensive sex- and age-class-specific survival and recapture probability estimates for a green sea turtle population derived from a long-term CMR program.

A new method for conservation planning for the persistence of multiple species

Although the aim of conservation planning is the persistence of biodiversity, current methods trade-off ecological realism at a species level in favour of including multiple species and landscape features. For conservation planning to be relevant, the impact of landscape configuration on population processes and the viability of species needs to be considered. We present a novel method for selecting reserve systems that maximize persistence across multiple species, subject to a conservation budget. We use a spatially explicit metapopulation model to estimate extinction risk, a function of the ecology of the species and the amount, quality and configuration of habitat. We compare our new method with more traditional, area-based reserve selection methods, using a ten-species case study, and find that the expected loss of species is reduced 20-fold. Unlike previous methods, we avoid designating arbitrary weightings between reserve size and configuration; rather, our method is based on population processes and is grounded in ecological theory.

Larval dispersal reveals regional sources and sinks in the Great Barrier Reef

We analysed simulated connectivity patterns for reef fish larvae in the Cairns section of the Great Barrier Reef, and identified 2 key subregions that exhibit regional scale source–sink dynamics. The source and sink were separated latitudinally by a boundary at 16.1°S, with the source subregion lying to the north. Larval transport between the 2 subregions was predominantly unidirectional, from north to south. Only a few local populations, described here as ‘gateway reefs’, were able to transport larvae from the sink subregion to the source subregion and thus maintain the connectedness of the metapopulation. The northern subregion was able to persist without external larval supply, but when conditions were recruitment limited, the southern subregion depended on larval supply from the north to persist. The relative autonomy of the northern subregion, and its importance in sustaining the southern subregion, will influence the effectiveness of conservation efforts.

Testing alternative models for the conservation of koalas in fragmented rural-urban landscapes

Predicting the various responses of different species to changes in landscape structure is a formidable challenge to landscape ecology. Based on expert knowledge and landscape ecological theory, we develop five competing a priori models for predicting the presence/absence of the Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) in Noosa Shire, south-east Queensland (Australia). A priori predictions were nested within three levels of ecological organization: in situ (site level) habitat (< 1 ha), patch level (100 ha) and landscape level (100-1000 ha). To test the models, Koala surveys and habitat surveys (n = 245) were conducted across the habitat mosaic. After taking into account tree species preferences, the patch and landscape context, and the neighbourhood effect of adjacent present sites, we applied logistic regression and hierarchical partitioning analyses to rank the alternative models and the explanatory variables. The strongest support was for a multilevel model, with Koala presence best predicted by the proportion of the landscape occupied by high quality habitat, the neighbourhood effect, the mean nearest neighbour distance between forest patches, the density of forest patches and the density of sealed roads. When tested against independent data (n = 105) using a receiver operator characteristic curve, the multilevel model performed moderately well. The study is consistent with recent assertions that habitat loss is the major driver of population decline, however, landscape configuration and roads have an important effect that needs to be incorporated into Koala conservation strategies.

Patch dynamics and metapopulation theory: the case of successional species

We present a mathematical framework that combines extinction-colonization dynamics with the dynamics of patch succession. We draw an analogy between the epidemiological categorization of individuals (infected, susceptible, latent and resistant) and the patch structure of a spatially heterogeneous landscape (occupied-suitable, empty-suitable, occupied-unsuitable and empty-unsuitable). This approach allows one to consider life-history attributes that influence persistence in patchy environments (e.g., longevity, colonization ability) in concert with extrinsic processes (e.g., disturbances, succession) that lead to spatial heterogeneity in patch suitability. It also allows the incorporation of seed banks and other dormant life forms, thus broadening patch occupancy dynamics to include sink habitats. We use the model to investigate how equilibrium patch occupancy is influenced by four critical parameters: colonization rate? extinction rate, disturbance frequency and the rate of habitat succession. This analysis leads to general predictions about how the temporal scaling of patch succession and extinction-colonization dynamics influences long-term persistence. We apply the model to herbaceous, early-successional species that inhabit open patches created by periodic disturbances. We predict the minimum disturbance frequency required far viable management of such species in the Florida scrub ecosystem. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Green turtle somatic growth dynamics in a spatially disjunct Great Barrier Reef metapopulation

The growth dynamics of green sea turtles resident in four separate foraging grounds of the southern Great Barrier Reef genetic stock were assessed using a nonparametric regression modeling approach. Juveniles recruit to these grounds at the same size, but grow at foraging-ground-dependent rates that result in significant differences in expected size- or age-at-maturity. Mean age-at-maturity was estimated to vary from 25-50 years depending on the ground. This stock comprises mainly the same mtDNA haplotype, so geographic variability might be due to local environmental conditions rather than genetic factors, although the variability was not a function of latitudinal variation in environmental conditions or whether the food stock was seagrass or algae. Temporal variability in growth rates was evident in response to local environmental stochasticity, so geographic variability might be due to local food stock dynamics. Despite such variability, the expected size-specific growth rate function at all grounds displayed a similar nonmonotonic growth pattern with a juvenile growth spurt at 60-70 cm curved carapace length, (CCL) or 15-20 years of age. Sex-specific growth differences were also evident with females tending to grow faster than similar-sized males after the Juvenile growth spurt. It is clear that slow sex-specific growth displaying both spatial and temporal variability and a juvenile growth spurt are distinct growth behaviors of green turtles from this stock.

A stochastic metapopulation model accounting for habitat dynamics

A stochastic metapopulation model accounting for habitat dynamics is presented. This is the stochastic SIS logistic model with the novel aspect that it incorporates varying carrying capacity. We present results of Kurtz and Barbour, that provide deterministic and diffusion approximations for a wide class of stochastic models, in a form that most easily allows their direct application to population models. These results are used to show that a suitably scaled version of the metapopulation model converges, uniformly in probability over finite time intervals, to a deterministic model previously studied in the ecological literature. Additionally, they allow us to establish a bivariate normal approximation to the quasi-stationary distribution of the process. This allows us to consider the effects of habitat dynamics on metapopulation modelling through a comparison with the stochastic SIS logistic model and provides an effective means for modelling metapopulations inhabiting dynamic landscapes.

Time-reversal test for stochastic quantum dynamics

The calculation of quantum dynamics is currently a central issue in theoretical physics, with diverse applications ranging from ultracold atomic Bose-Einstein condensates to condensed matter, biology, and even astrophysics. Here we demonstrate a conceptually simple method of determining the regime of validity of stochastic simulations of unitary quantum dynamics by employing a time-reversal test. We apply this test to a simulation of the evolution of a quantum anharmonic oscillator with up to 6.022×1023 (Avogadro's number) of particles. This system is realizable as a Bose-Einstein condensate in an optical lattice, for which the time-reversal procedure could be implemented experimentally.

Superchemistry: dynamics of coupled atomic and molecular Bose condensates

We analyze the dynamics of a dilute, trapped Bose-condensed atomic gas coupled to a diatomic molecular Bose gas by coherent Raman transitions. This system is shown to result in a new type of “superchemistry,” in which giant collective oscillations between the atomic and the molecular gas can occur. The phenomenon is caused by stimulated emission of bosonic atoms or molecules into their condensate phases.

Quantum dynamics of three coupled atomic Bose-Einstein condensates

The simplest model of three coupled Bose-Einstein condensates is investigated using a group theoretical method. The stationary solutions are determined using the SU(3) group under the mean-field approximation. This semiclassical analysis, using system symmetries, shows a transition in the dynamics of the system from self trapping to delocalization at a critical value for the coupling between the condensates. The global dynamics are investigated by examination of the stable points, and our analysis shows that the structure of the stable points depends on the ratio of the condensate coupling to the particle-particle interaction, and undergoes bifurcations as this ratio is varied. This semiclassical model is compared to a full quantum treatment, which also displays a dynamical transition. The quantum case has collapse and revival sequences superimposed on the semiclassical dynamics, reflecting the underlying discreteness of the spectrum. Nonzero circular current states are also demonstrated as one of the higher-dimensional effects displayed in this system.

Substructure and Dynamics of the Fornax Cluster

We present the first dynamical analysis of a galaxy cluster to include a large fraction of dwarf galaxies. Our sample of 108 Fornax Cluster members measured with the UK Schmidt Telescope FLAIR-II spectrograph contains 55 dwarf galaxies (15.5 > b(j) > 18.0 or -16 > M-B > -13.5). H alpha emission shows that of the dwarfs are star forming, twice the fraction implied by morphological classifications. The total sample has a mean velocity of 1493 +/- 36 kms s(-1) and a velocity dispersion of 374 +/- 26 km s(-1). The dwarf galaxies form a distinct population: their velocity dispersion (429 +/- 41 km s(-1)) is larger than that of the giants () at the 98% confidence level. This suggests that the dwarf population is dominated by infalling objects whereas the giants are virialized. The Fornax system has two components, the main Fornax Cluster centered on NGC 1399 with cz = 1478 km s(-1) and sigma (cz) = 370 km s(-1) and a subcluster centered 3 degrees to the southwest including NGC 1316 with cz = 1583 km s(-1) and sigma (cz) = 377 km s(-1). This partition is preferred over a single cluster at the 99% confidence level. The subcluster, a site of intense star formation, is bound to Fornax and probably infalling toward the cluster core for the first time. We discuss the implications of this substructure for distance estimates of the Fornax Cluster. We determine the cluster mass profile using the method of Diaferio, which does not assume a virialized sample. The mass within a projected radius of 1.4 Mpc is (7 +/- 2) x 10(13) M-., and the mass-to-light ratio is 300 +/- 100 M-./L-.. The mass is consistent with values derived from the projected mass virial estimator and X-ray measurements at smaller radii.