Is there change over time in the season-of-birth effect for schizophrenia? Data from the southern hemisphere

The aim of this paper is to examine distributions of schizophrenia and general population births over time in order to determine whether (a) the pattern has changed over time, (b) any pattern was similar for both males and females, and (c) whether there is any indication that there is any relationship between the changes in pattern between schizophrenia and general population births. Birth month and year for 7807 individuals with ICD8/9 schizophrenia were gained from the Queensland Mental Health Statistical System for 1914-1975. Monthly births for the general population in Queensland for the same period were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. For each decade we obtained two comparisons, (1) between two 'seasons' (summer-autumn/winter-spring), and (2) between the third (coldest) quarter and the remaining quarters. Based on expected contrasts from general population proportions, odds ratios and their confidence intervals were used to analyse these comparisons for all subjects, and for males and females separately. The seasonality found in our previous studies was again evident (OR 1.09; 95% CI= 1.01-1.17). However there was no significant change in its pattern over time either for the total group or for males and females separately. When the general population births alone were examined using the same contrasts, seasonality was also observed, but here there were fluctuations over time. These results suggest that exposures linked to changes in general population births over time should be examined in disorders such as schizophrenia which demonstrate seasonality in births. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Inequitable distribution of general practitioners in Australia: estimating need through the Robin Hood Index

Objective: From Census data, to document the distribution of general practitioners in Australia and to estimate the number of general practitioners needed to achieve an equitable distribution accounting for community health need. Methods: Data on location of general practitioners, population size and crude mortality by statistical division (SD) were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The number of patients per general practitioner by SD was calculated and plotted. Using crude mortality to estimate community health need, a ratio of the number of general practitioners per person:mortality was calculated for all Australia and for each SD (the Robin Hood Index). From this, the number of general practitioners needed to achieve equity was calculated. Results: In all, 26,290 general practitioners were identified in 57 SDs. The mean number of people per general practitioner is 707, ranging from 551 to 1887. Capital city SDs have most favourable ratios. The Robin Hood Index for Australia is 1, and ranges from 0.32 (relatively under-served) to 2.46 (relatively over-served). Twelve SDs (21%) including all capital cities and 65% of all Australians, have a Robin Hood Index > 1. To achieve equity per capita 2489 more general practitioners (10% of the current workforce) are needed. To achieve equity by the Robin Hood Index 3351 (13% of the current workforce) are needed. Conclusions: The distribution of general practitioners in Australia is skewed. Nonmetropolitan areas are relatively underserved. Census data and the Robin Hood Index could provide a simple means of identifying areas of need in Australia.

Comparison of trends in method-specific suicide rates in Australia and England & Wales, 1968-97

Objective: To compare secular trends in method-specific suicide rates among young people in Australia and England & Wales between 1968 and 1997. Methods: Australian data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and for England & Wales from the Office for National Statistics. Overall and method-specific suicide rates for 15-34 year old males and females were calculated using ICD codes E950-9 and E980-9 except E988.8. Results: In both settings, suicide rates have almost doubled in young males over the past 30 years (from 16.8 to 32.9 per 100,000 in Australia and from 10.1 to 19.0 in England & Wales). Overall rates have changed little in young females. In both sexes and in both settings there have been substantial increases in suicide by hanging (5-7 fold increase in Australia and four-fold increase in England & Wales). There have also been smaller increases in gassing in the 1980s and '90s. In females, the impact of these increases on overall rates has been offset by a decline in drug overdose, the most common method in females. Conclusions: Rates of male suicide have increased substantially in both settings in recent years, and hanging has become an increasingly common method of suicide. The similarity in observed trends in both settings supports the view that such changes may have common causes. Research should focus on understanding why hanging has increased in popularity and what measures may be taken to diminish it.

Increasingly inequitable distribution of general practitioners in Australia, 1986-96

Objective: To document trends in the distribution of general practitioners (GPs) in Australia between 1986 and 1996, adjusted for community need. Methods: Data on the location of GPs, population size and crude mortality in statistical divisions (SD) were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census of Population and Housing in 1986 and 1996. From these data, we calculated measures of distribution equality (number of people sharing each GP in each SD) and distribution equity (number of people sharing each GP divided by the crude mortality rate; the Robin Hood Index), and analysed temporal changes in the distribution of GPs. Results: Nationally the number of people sharing each GP fell 11% from 1,038 in 1986 to 921 in 1996. However, in 41 of 57 SDs (72%, p=0.01) the number of people sharing a GP actually increased over this time, and the average Robin Hood Index across SDs fell from 0.943 to 0.783 (p=0.004), indicating increasingly inequitable distribution. Comparing the Robin Hood index values of all SDs ranked in pairs, the value fell in 53 of 57 (93%, p<0.001) paired SDs over the decade. These patterns demonstrate increasing inequity over the decade. The number of people sharing each GP was consistently and substantially lower in the capital city SDs and the Robin Hood Index values were consistently and substantially higher (overserved) compared with country SDs. Conclusions: Despite there being more GPs per capita in Australia, their distribution became increasingly unequal and inequitable between 1986 and 1996, such that rural and remote areas became increasingly poorly served.

An analysis of accommodation needs of adults with an intellectual disability in Toowoomba and surrounding areas

Introduction The objective of this study was to analyse the accommodation needs of people with intellectual disability over the age of 18 years in Toowoomba and contiguous shires. In 2004, a group of carers established Toowoomba Intellectual Disability Support Association (TIDSA) to address the issue of the lack of supported accommodation for people with intellectual disability over the age of 18 and the concerns of ageing carers. The Centre for Rural and Remote Area Health (CRRAH) was engaged by TIDSA to ascertain this need and undertook a research project funded by the Queensland Gambling Community Benefit Fund. While data specifically relating to people with intellectual disability and their carers are difficult to obtain, the Australian Bureau of Statistics report that carers of people with a disability are more likely to be female and at least 65 years of age. Projections by the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM) show that disability rates are increasing and carer rates are decreasing. Thus the problem of appropriate support to the increasing number of ageing carers and those who they care for will be a major challenge to policy makers and is an issue of immediate concern. In general, what was once the norm of accommodating people with intellectual disability in large institutions is now changing to accommodating into community-based residences (Annison, 2000; Young, Ashman, Sigafoos, & Grevell, 2001). However, in Toowoomba and contiguous shires, TIDSA have noted that the availability of suitable accommodation for people with intellectual disability over the age of 18 years is declining with no new options available in an environment of increasing demand. Most effort seemed to be directed towards crisis provision. Method This study employed two phases of data gathering, the first being the distribution of a questionnaire through local service providers and upon individual request to the carers of people with intellectual disability over the age of 18. The questionnaire comprised of Likert-type items intended to measure various aspects of current and future accommodation issues. Most questions were followed with space for free-response comments to provide the opportunity for carers to further clarify and expand on their responses. The second phase comprised semi-structured interviews conducted with ten carers and ten people with intellectual disability who had participated in the Phase One questionnaire. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and subjected to content analysis where major themes were explored. Results Age and gender Carer participants in this study totalled 150. The mean age of these carers was 61.5 years and ranged from 40 – 91 years. Females comprised 78% of the sample (mean age = 61.49; range from 40-91) and 22% were male (mean age = 61.7 range from 43-81). The mean age of people with intellectual disability in our study was 37.2 years ranging from 18 – 79 years with 40% female (mean age = 39.5; range from 19-79) and 60% male (mean age = 35.6; range from 18-59). The average age of carers caring for a person over the age of 18 who is living at home is 61 years. The average age of the carer who cares for a person who is living away from home is 62 years. The overall age range of both these groups of carers is between 40 and 81 years. The oldest group of carers (mean age = 70 years) were those where the person with intellectual disability lives away from home in a large residential facility. Almost one quarter of people with an intellectual disability who currently live at home is cared for by one primary carer and this is almost exclusively a parent.

Recent trends in pay equity: Beyond the aggregate statistics

The earnings gap between men and women has remained comparatively stable at an aggregate level over the 1990s in Australia. From one perspective, this is a reminder of the considerable difficulty of addressing wage differentials once the most overt forms of wage discrimination have been removed, and of the limited impact of most policy initiatives. From another, it may be seen as evidence that dire predictions about the effects of decentralisation on the earnings gap have failed to materialise. In this paper, I use Australian Bureau of Statistics data to show that a number of different trends are evident underneath the relatively static picture shown by the aggregate statistics, particularly as wage dispersion has increased. The data suggest not only that the prospects for pay equity are far from benign, but also that in the current labour market the issue of gender pay inequality cannot be effectively addressed separately from wage inequality more generally.

Which aspects of socio-economic status are related to health in mid-aged and older women?

A population-based study was conducted to validate gender- and age-specific indexes of socio-economic status (SES) and to investigate the associations between these indexes and a range of health outcomes in 2 age cohorts of women. Data from 11,637 women aged 45 to 50 and 9,5 10 women aged 70 to 75 were analyzed. Confirmatory factor analysis produced four domains of SES among the mid-aged cohort (employment, family unit, education, and migration) and four domains among the older cohort (family unit, income, education, and migration). Overall, the results supported the factor structures derived from another population-based study (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 1995), reinforcing the argument that SES domains differ across age groups. In general, the findings also supported the hypotheses that women with low SES would have poorer health outcomes than higher SES women, and that the magnitude of these effects would differ according to the specific SES domain and by age group, with fewer and smaller differences observed among older women. The main exception was that in the older cohort, the education domain was significantly associated with specific health conditions. Results suggest that relations between SES and health are highly complex and vary by age, SES domain, and the health outcome under study.

Epidemiological analysis of electroconvulsive therapy in Victoria, Australia

Objective: To determine the population-based utilization rate of electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) in Victoria between 1998-1999, to examine the characteristics of the ECT treated group, and to identify patient factors independently associated with differential rates of ECT treatment. Method: Electroconvulsive therapy is reported under statute in Victoria, Australia. Crude, age-adjusted and age-sex specific utilization rates were calculated using this statutory data for the 1998-1999 financial year and estimated mid-year populations from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive characteristics of those treated with ECT were derived from the statutory data. Patient factors associated with an increased likelihood of ECT in the public sector were explored with logistic regression analysis, using non-ECT treated mental health patients from the Victorian Psychiatric Case Register as the reference population. Results: The crude treated-person and age-adjusted rates for the State (both public and private sectors) were 39.9 and 44.0 persons per 100 000 resident population per annum, respectively. The crude and age-adjusted administration rates were 330.3 and 362.6 ECT administrations per 100 000 resident population per annum, respectively. Age-sex specific rates varied by age and sex, with rates generally increasing with age and female sex. Overall, 62.8% of the treated group were women, 32.9% aged over 64, and 75.2% had depression. Diagnosis, age and sex each independently predicted ECT in the public sector, with diagnosis the most important factor, followed by age then sex. Conclusions: Despite decades of use, the appropriate rate of ECT utilization is still unclear. Further research should be directed at exploring the factors, including provider variables, determining ECT treatment.

Trends in the use of hospital beds by older people in Australia: 1993-2002

Objective: To determine trends in use of Australian acute hospital inpatient services by older patients. Design and data sources: Secondary analysis of hospital data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare in the period 1993-94 to 2001-02, with population data for this period from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Outcome measures: Population-based rates of hospital separations and bed utilisation. Results: The Australian aged population (65 years and older) increased by 18% compared with total population growth of 10%, yet the proportion of hospital beds occupied by older patients remained stable at 47%. The most substantial changes were observed in the population aged 75 years and older, with separations increasing by 89%, length of stay reducing by 35% and bed utilisation increasing by 23%. However, rates of bed utilisation (in relation to population) declined among older groups (10% decline in per capita use in population 75 years and older), but increased in the younger population (1% increase in per capita use in people younger than 65 years). Conclusion: Important trends in use of inpatient services were identified in this study. These trends are contrary to common perception. Ageing of the Australian population was not associated with an increase in the proportion of hospital beds used by older patients.

Uncovering a hidden epidemic: A study of the current burden of heart failure in Australia

Background. Australia, like other countries, is experiencing an epidemic of heart failure (HF). However, given the lack of national and population-based datasets collating detailed cardiovascular-specific morbidity and mortality outcomes, quantifying the specific burden imposed by HF has been difficult. Methods. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS data) for the year 2000 were used in combination with contemporary, well-validated population-based epidemiologic data to estimate the number of individuals with symptomatic and asymptomatic HF related to both preserved (diastolic dysfunction) and impaired left ventricular systolic (dys)function (LVSD) and rates of HF-related hospitalisation. Results. In 2000, we estimate that around 325,000 Australians (58% male) had symptomatic HF associated with both LVSD and diastolic dysfunction and an additional 214,000 with asymptomatic LVSD. 140,000 (26%) live in rural and remote regions, distal to specialist health care services. There was an estimated 22,000 incidents of admissions for congestive heart failure and approximately 100,000 admissions associated with this syndrome overall. Conclusion. Australia is in the midst of a HF epidemic that continues to grow. Overall, it probably contributes to over 1.4 million days of hospitalization at a cost of more than $1 billion. A national response to further quantify and address this enormous health problem is required.

Contribution of changes in risk factors to the decline of coronary heart disease mortality in Australia over three decades

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease has been a major cause of mortality in Australian adults, but the rate has declined by 83% from the 1968 peak by the year 2000. The study objective is to determine the contribution of changes in population risk factors - mean serum cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure and tobacco smoking prevalence - to the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Australia over three decades. METHODS: Coronary heart disease deaths (International Classification of Disease-9, 410-414) and population by year, age group and sex were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Risk factor levels were obtained from population surveys and estimated average annual changes by period were used to calculate average annual 'attributable' proportional declines in CHD mortality by period (age 35-64 years). RESULTS: Over the period 1968-2000, 74% of male decline and 81% of the female decline in coronary heart disease mortality rate was accounted for by the combined effect of reductions in the three risk factors. In males 36% of the decline was contributed by reductions in diastolic blood pressure, 22% by cholesterol and 16% by smoking. For females 56% was from diastolic blood pressure reduction, 20% from cholesterol and 5% from smoking. Effects of reductions in serum cholesterol on coronary heart disease mortality occurred mainly in the 1970s. Declines in diastolic blood pressure had effects on coronary heart disease mortality over the three decades, and declines in tobacco smoking had a significant effect in males in the 1980s. CONCLUSION: Most of the spectacular decline in coronary heart disease mortality over the last three decades in Australia can be ascribed to reductions in population risk factors from primary and secondary prevention.

Jurisdictional trends in opioid overdose deaths, 1988-96

This report analysed data on opioid overdose mortality between 1988 and 1996 to: examine differences between jurisdictions in the rate of fatal opioid overdose and the rate of increase in overdose; and estimate the proportion of all deaths which were attributed to opioid overdose. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data were obtained on the number of deaths attributed to opioid dependence (ICD 9 codes 304.0, 304.7) and accidental opioid poisoning (ICD 9 codes E850.0, E850.1). The highest rate of fatal overdose occurred in NSW, followed by Victoria. The standardised mortality rate among other jurisdictions fluctuated quite markedly. While the rate of opioid overdose has increased throughout Australia, the rate of increase has been greater in some of the less-populous states and territories than it has in NSW or Victoria. In 1996, approximately 6.5% of all deaths among people aged 15-24 years and approximately 10% of all deaths among those aged 25-34 were due to opioid overdose. During the interval from 1988 to 1996, the proportion of deaths attributed to opioid overdose increased. From 1988 to 1996, the proportion of deaths attributed to opioid overdose among individuals aged 25-34 years was approximately one-third that attributed to suicide, but this proportion had increased to approximately one-half by 1996. The rate of increase in the proportion of deaths attributed to opioid overdose was higher than the rate of increase in the proportion of deaths attributed to suicide.

Opioid overdose mortality in Australia, 1964-1997: birth-cohort trends

Objective: To examine trends in rates of opioid overdose deaths from 1964 to 1997 in different birth cohorts. Design: Age-period-cohort analysis of national data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Main outcome measures: Annual population rates of death attributed to opioid dependence or accidental opioid poisoning in people aged 15-44 years, by sex and birth cohort tin five-year intervals, 1940-1944 to 1975-1979). Results: The rate of opioid overdose deaths increased 55-fold between 1964 and 1997, from 1.3 to 71.5 per million population aged 15-44 years. The rate of opioid overdose deaths also increased substantially over the eight birth cohorts, with an incidence rate ratio of 20.70 (95% confidence interval, 13.60-31.46) in the 1975-1979 cohort compared with the 1940-1944 cohort. The age at which the cumulative rate of opioid overdose deaths reached 300 per million fell in successive cohorts (for men, from 28 years among those born 1955-1959 to 22 years among those born 1965-1974; for women, from 33 years among those born 1955-1959 to 27 years among those born 1965-1969). Conclusions: Heroin use in Australia largely began in the early 1970s and rates of heroin use have markedly increased in birth cohorts born since 1950.

Treads in opiate-related deaths in the United Kingdom and Australia, 1985-1995

This paper compares data on rates of opiate overdose mortality in the UK and Australia between 1985 and 1995. Data on rates of ICD 9-coded overdose mortality were obtained from the Office of National Statistics in the UK and from the Australian Bureau of Statistics mortality register. The proportion of all deaths attributed to opioid overdose increased in both countries between 1985 and 1995. The proportion of all deaths attributed to opioid overdose was substantially higher in Australia than in the UK, but methadone appeared to contribute to more opioid overdose deaths in the UK (50%) than in Australia (18%). Given deficiencies in the available data, the reasons for these differences between the two countries are uncertain but a plausible hypothesis is that the greater availability and ease of access to methadone maintenance in the UK contributes to both the lower rate of opioid overdose mortality and the greater apparent contribution that methadone makes to opioid overdose deaths in that country. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cohort trends in youth suicide in Australia 1964-1997

Objective: This paper examines trends in the rate of suicide among young Australians aged 15-24 years from 1964 to 1997 and presents an age-period-cohort analysis of these trends. Method: Study design consisted of an age-period-cohort analysis of suicide mortality in Australian youth aged between 15 and 24 for the years 1964-1997 inclusive. Data sources were Australian Bureau of Statistics data on: numbers of deaths due to suicide by gender and age at death; and population at risk in each of eight birth cohorts (1940-1944, 1945-1949, 1950-1954, 1955-1959, 1960-1964, 1965-1969, 1970-1974, and 1975-1979). Main outcome measures were population rates of deaths among males and females in each birth cohort attributed to suicide in each year 1964-1997. Results: The rate of suicide deaths among Australian males aged 15-24 years increased from 8.7 per 100 000 in 1964 to 30.9 per 100 000 in 1997, with the rate among females changing little over the period, from 5.2 per 100 000 in 1964 to 7.1 per 100 000 in 1997. While the rate of deaths attributed to suicide increased over the birth cohorts, analyses revealed that these increases were largely due to period effects, with suicide twice as likely among those aged 15-24 years in 1985-1997 than between 1964 and 1969. Conclusions: The rate of youth suicide in Australia has increased since 1964, particularly among males. This increase can largely be attributed to period effects rather than to a cohort effect and has been paralleled by an increased rate of youth suicides internationally and by an increase in other psychosocial problems including psychiatric illness, criminal offending and substance use disorders.