Does terrestrial epidemiology apply to marine systems?

Most of epidemiological theory has been developed for terrestrial systems, but the significance of disease in the ocean is now being recognized. However, the extent to which terrestrial epidemiology can be directly transferred to marine systems is uncertain. Many broad types of disease-causing organism occur both on land and in the sea, and it is clear that some emergent disease problems in marine environments are caused by pathogens moving from terrestrial to marine systems. However, marine systems are qualitatively different from terrestrial environments, and these differences affect the application of modelling and management approaches that have been developed for terrestrial systems. Phyla and body plans are more diverse in marine environments and marine organisms have different life histories and probably different disease transmission modes than many of their terrestrial counterparts. Marine populations are typically more open than terrestrial ones, with the potential for long-distance dispersal of larvae. Potentially, this might enable unusually rapid propagation of epidemics in marine systems, and there are several examples of this. Taken together, these differences will require the development of new approaches to modelling and control of infectious disease in the ocean.

Applying ontologies to business and systems modelling techniques and perspectives: Lessons learned

For many years in the area of business systems analysis and design, practitioners and researchers alike have been searching for some comprehensive basis on which to evaluate, compare, and engineer techniques that are promoted for use in the modelling of systems' requirements. To date, while many frameworks, factors, and facets have been forthcoming, none appear to be based on a sound theory. In light of this dilemma, over the last 10 years, attention has been devoted by researchers to the use of ontology to provide some theoretical basis for the advancement of the business systems modelling discipline. This paper outlines how we have used a particular ontology for this purpose over the last five years. In particular we have learned that the understandability and the applicability of the selected ontology must be clear for IS professionals, the results of any ontological evaluation must be tempered by economic efficiency considerations of the stakeholders involved, and ontologies may have to be focused for the business purpose and type of user involved in the modelling situation.

Process systems modelling and applications in granulation: A review

Granulation is one of the fundamental operations in particulate processing and has a very ancient history and widespread use. Much fundamental particle science has occurred in the last two decades to help understand the underlying phenomena. Yet, until recently the development of granulation systems was mostly based on popular practice. The use of process systems approaches to the integrated understanding of these operations is providing improved insight into the complex nature of the processes. Improved mathematical representations, new solution techniques and the application of the models to industrial processes are yielding better designs, improved optimisation and tighter control of these systems. The parallel development of advanced instrumentation and the use of inferential approaches provide real-time access to system parameters necessary for improvements in operation. The use of advanced models to help develop real-time plant diagnostic systems provides further evidence of the utility of process system approaches to granulation processes. This paper highlights some of those aspects of granulation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adverse feedback sequences in exploited marine systems: Are deliberate interruptive actions warranted?

Several mechanisms for self-enhancing feedback instabilities in marine ecosystems are identified and briefly elaborated. It appears that adverse phases of operation may be abruptly triggered by explosive breakouts in abundance of one or more previously suppressed populations. Moreover, an evident capacity of marine organisms to accomplish extensive geographic habitat expansions may expand and perpetuate a breakout event. This set of conceptual elements provides a framework for interpretation of a sequence of events that has occurred in the Northern Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem (off south-western Africa). This history can illustrate how multiple feedback loops might interact with one another in unanticipated and quite malignant ways, leading not only to collapse of customary resource stocks but also to degradation of the ecosystem to such an extent that disruption of customary goods and services may go beyond fisheries alone to adversely affect other major global ecosystem concerns (e.g. proliferations of jellyfish and other slimy, stingy, toxic and/or noxious organisms, perhaps even climate change itself, etc.). The wisdom of management interventions designed to interrupt an adverse mode of feedback operation is pondered. Research pathways are proposed that may lead to improved insights needed: (i) to avoid potential 'triggers' that might set adverse phases of feedback loop operation into motion; and (ii) to diagnose and properly evaluate plausible actions to reverse adverse phases of feedback operation that might already have been set in motion. These pathways include the drawing of inferences from available 'quasi-experiments' produced either by short-term climatic variation or inadvertently in the course of biased exploitation practices, and inter-regional applications of the comparative method of science.

Modelling the conversion of Colombian lowland ecosystems since 1940: Drivers, patterns and rates

In biologically mega-diverse countries that are undergoing rapid human landscape transformation, it is important to understand and model the patterns of land cover change. This problem is particularly acute in Colombia, where lowland forests are being rapidly cleared for cropping and ranching. We apply a conceptual model with a nested set of a priori predictions to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover change for six 50-100 km(2) case study areas in lowland ecosystems of Colombia. Our analysis included soil fertility, a cost-distance function, and neighbourhood of forest and secondary vegetation cover as independent variables. Deforestation and forest regrowth are tested using logistic regression analysis and an information criterion approach to rank the models and predictor variables. The results show that: (a) overall the process of deforestation is better predicted by the full model containing all variables, while for regrowth the model containing only the auto-correlated neighbourhood terms is a better predictor; (b) overall consistent patterns emerge, although there are variations across regions and time; and (c) during the transformation process, both the order of importance and significance of the drivers change. Forest cover follows a consistent logistic decline pattern across regions, with introduced pastures being the major replacement land cover type. Forest stabilizes at 2-10% of the original cover, with an average patch size of 15.4 (+/- 9.2) ha. We discuss the implications of the observed patterns and rates of land cover change for conservation planning in countries with high rates of deforestation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Client fish ectoparasite loads and cleaner shrimp Urocaridella sp c hunger levels affect cleaning behaviour

Cleaning is a classic example of mutualism and determining the factors that maintain the balance between the costs and benefits for mutualist partners can assist our understanding of how cleaning relationships are maintained. Optimal foraging theory suggests two factors that might help to maintain the relationship between cleaners and their clients: client ectoparasite load and cleaner hunger levels. The ecological relevance and importance of foraging by cleaner fish in marine systems has been demonstrated repeatedly, yet there is little information available on this behaviour in cleaner shrimp. To determine whether cleaner shrimp base their choice of client fish on food patch quality (i.e. client fish ectoparasite load) we offered the yellow-beaked cleaner shrimp Urocaridella sp. c a choice of parasitized and unparasitized rock cods, Cephalopholis cyanostigma. To determine whether cleaner shrimp hunger levels influence cleaning time, we manipulated hunger levels in Urocaridella sp. c and examined their behaviour towards parasitized client fish. Cleaner shrimp preferred parasitized to unparasitized client fish and food-deprived cleaner shrimp cleaned parasitized rock cods more frequently than satiated cleaner shrimp did. Therefore, variations in client fish ectoparasite load and cleaner shrimp hunger level are two factors that affect the balance in this mutualism. Finally, our results meet some of the assumptions of biological market theory, a framework used to understand cooperative interactions, and thus this framework is suggested for future studies on this cleaning system.

Healthy waterways: Healthy catchments - An integrated research/management program to understand and reduce impacts of sediments and nutrients on waterways in Queensland, Australia

The Moreton Bay Waterways and Catchments Partnership, now branded the Healthy Waterways Partnership, has built on the experience of the past 15 years here in South East Queensland (SEQ). It focuses on water quality and the ecosystem health of our freshwater, estuarine and marine systems through the implementation of actions by individual partners and the collective oversight of a regional work program that assists partners to prioritise their investments and address emerging issues. This regional program includes monitoring, reporting, marketing and communication, development of decision support tools, research that is directed to problem solving, and maintaining extensive consultative and engagement arrangements. The Partnership has produced information-based outcomes which have led to significant cost savings in the protection of water quality and ecosystem resources by its stakeholders. This has been achieved by: – providing a clear focus for management actions that has ownership of governments, industry and community; – targeted scientific research to address issues requiring appropriate management actions; – management actions based on a sound understanding of the waterways and rigorous public consultation; and, – development and implementation of a strategy that incorporates commitments from all levels of stakeholders. While focusing on our waterways, the Partnership’s approach includes addressing catchment management issues particularly relating to the management of diffuse pollution sources in both urban and rural landscapes as well as point source loads. We are now working with other stakeholders to develop a framework for integrated water management that will link water quality and water quantity goals and priorities.

Modelling the input-output behaviour of piezoelectric structural health monitoring systems for composite plates

This paper investigates the input-output characteristics of structural health monitoring systems for composite plates based on permanently attached piezoelectric transmitter and sensor elements. Using dynamic piezoelectricity theory and a multiple integral transform method to describe the propagating and scattered flexural waves an electro-mechanical model for simulating the voltage input-output transfer function for circular piezoelectric transmitters and sensors adhesively attached to an orthotropic composite plate is developed. The method enables the characterization of all three physical processes, i.e. wave generation, wave propagation and wave reception. The influence of transducer, plate and attached electrical circuit characteristics on the voltage output behaviour of the system is examined through numerical calculations, both in frequency and the time domain. The results show that the input-output behaviour of the system is not properly predicted by the transducers' properties alone. Coupling effects between the transducers and the tested structure have to be taken into account, and adding backing materials to the piezoelectric elements can significantly improve the sensitivity of the system. It is shown that in order to achieve maximum sensitivity, particular piezoelectric transmitters and sensors need to be designed according to the structure to be monitored and the specific frequency regime of interest.

Diagnostic goal driven modelling and simulation of multiscale process systems

A systematic goal-driven top-down modelling methodology is proposed that is capable of developing a multiscale model of a process system for given diagnostic purposes. The diagnostic goal-set and the symptoms are extracted from HAZOP analysis results, where the possible actions to be performed in a fault situation are also described. The multiscale dynamic model is realized in the form of a hierarchical coloured Petri net by using a novel substitution place-transition pair. Multiscale simulation that focuses automatically on the fault areas is used to predict the effect of the proposed preventive actions. The notions and procedures are illustrated on some simple case studies including a heat exchanger network and a more complex wet granulation process.

Trait physiology and crop modelling as a framework to link phenotypic complexity to underlying genetic systems

New tools derived from advances in molecular biology have not been widely adopted in plant breeding for complex traits because of the inability to connect information at gene level to the phenotype in a manner that is useful for selection. In this study, we explored whether physiological dissection and integrative modelling of complex traits could link phenotype complexity to underlying genetic systems in a way that enhanced the power of molecular breeding strategies. A crop and breeding system simulation study on sorghum, which involved variation in 4 key adaptive traits-phenology, osmotic adjustment, transpiration efficiency, stay-green-and a broad range of production environments in north-eastern Australia, was used. The full matrix of simulated phenotypes, which consisted of 547 location-season combinations and 4235 genotypic expression states, was analysed for genetic and environmental effects. The analysis was conducted in stages assuming gradually increased understanding of gene-to-phenotype relationships, which would arise from physiological dissection and modelling. It was found that environmental characterisation and physiological knowledge helped to explain and unravel gene and environment context dependencies in the data. Based on the analyses of gene effects, a range of marker-assisted selection breeding strategies was simulated. It was shown that the inclusion of knowledge resulting from trait physiology and modelling generated an enhanced rate of yield advance over cycles of selection. This occurred because the knowledge associated with component trait physiology and extrapolation to the target population of environments by modelling removed confounding effects associated with environment and gene context dependencies for the markers used. Developing and implementing this gene-to-phenotype capability in crop improvement requires enhanced attention to phenotyping, ecophysiological modelling, and validation studies to test the stability of candidate genetic regions.