Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A simulation model of cereal-legume intercropping systems for semi-arid regions II. Model application

Smallholder farmers in Africa practice traditional cropping techniques such as intercropping. Intercropping is thought to offer higher productivity and resource milisation than sole cropping. In this study, risk associated with maize-bean intercropping was evaluated by quantifying long-term yield in both intercropping and sole cropping in a semi-arid region of South Africa (Bloemfontein, Free State) with reference to rainfall variability. The crop simulation model was run with different cultural practices (planting date and plant density) for 52 summer crop growing seasons (1950/1951-2001/2002). Eighty-one scenarios, consisted of three levels of initial soil water, planting date, maize population, and bean population, were simulated. From the simulation outputs, the total land equivalent ratio (LER) was greater than one. The intercrop (equivalent to sole maize) had greater energy value (EV) than sole beans, and the intercrop (equivalent to sole beans) had greater monetary value (MV) than sole maize. From these results, it can be concluded that maize-bean intercropping is advantageous for this semi-arid region. Soil water at planting was the most important factor of all scenario factors, followed by planting date. Irrigation application at planting, November/December planting and high plant density of maize for EV and beans for MV can be one of the most effective cultural practices in the study region. With regard to rainfall variability, seasonal (October-April) rainfall positively affected EV and MV, but not LER. There was more intercrop production in La Nina years than in El Nino years. Thus, better cultural practices may be selected to maximize maize-bean intercrop yields for specific seasons in the semi-arid region based on the global seasonal outlook. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved methods for predicting individual leaf area and leaf senescence in maize (Zea mays)

The ability to predict leaf area and leaf area index is crucial in crop simulation models that predict crop growth and yield. Previous studies have shown existing methods of predicting leaf area to be inadequate when applied to a broad range of cultivars with different numbers of leaves. The objectives of the study were to (i) develop generalised methods of modelling individual and total plant leaf area, and leaf senescence, that do not require constants that are specific to environments and/or genotypes, (ii) re-examine the base, optimum, and maximum temperatures for calculation of thermal time for leaf senescence, and (iii) assess the method of calculation of individual leaf area from leaf length and leaf width in experimental work. Five cultivars of maize differing widely in maturity and adaptation were planted in October 1994 in south-eastern Queensland, and grown under non-limiting conditions of water and plant nutrient supplies. Additional data for maize plants with low total leaf number (12-17) grown at Katumani Research Centre, Kenya, were included to extend the range in the total leaf number per plant. The equation for the modified (slightly skewed) bell curve could be generalised for modelling individual leaf area, as all coefficients in it were related to total leaf number. Use of coefficients for individual genotypes can be avoided, and individual and total plant leaf area can be calculated from total leaf number. A single, logistic equation, relying on maximum plant leaf area and thermal time from emergence, was developed to predict leaf senescence. The base, optimum, and maximum temperatures for calculation of thermal time for leaf senescence were 8, 34, and 40 degrees C, and apply for the whole crop-cycle when used in modelling of leaf senescence. Thus, the modelling of leaf production and senescence is simplified, improved, and generalised. Consequently, the modelling of leaf area index (LAI) and variables that rely on LAI will be improved. For experimental purposes, we found that the calculation of leaf area from leaf length and leaf width remains appropriate, though the relationship differed slightly from previously published equations.

Does maintaining green leaf area in sorghum improve yield under drought? I. Leaf growth and senescence

Production of sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench], an important cereal crop in semiarid regions of the world, is often limited by drought. When water is limiting during the grain-filling period, hybrids possessing the stay-green trait maintain more photosynthetically active leaves than hybrids not possessing this trait. To improve yield under drought, knowledge of the extent of genetic variation in green leaf area retention is required. Field studies were undertaken in north-eastern Australia on a cracking and self-mulching gray clay to determine the effects of water regime and hybrid on the components of green leaf area at maturity (GLAM). Nine hybrids varying in stay-green were grown under a fully irrigated control, postflowering water deficit, and terminal (pre- and postflowering) water deficit. Water deficit reduced GLAM by 67% in the terminal drought treatment compared with the fully irrigated control. Under terminal water deficit, hybrids possessing the B35 and KS19 sources of stay-green retained more GLAM (1260 cm(2) plant(-1)) compared with intermediate (780 cm(2) plant(-1)) and senescent (670 cm(2) plant(-1)) hybrids. RQL12 hybrids (KS19 source of stay-green) displayed delayed onset and reduced rate of senescence; A35 hybrids displayed only delayed onset. Visual rating of green leaf retention was highly correlated with measured GLAM, although this procedure is constrained by an inability to distinguish among the functional mechanisms determining the phenotype. Linking functional rather than phenotypic differences to molecular markers may improve the efficiency of selecting for traits such as stay-green.

Magnesium in tropical and subtropical soils from north-eastern Australia .2. Response by glasshouse-grown maize to applied magnesium

A glasshouse trial, in which maize (Zea mays L. cv. Pioneer 3270) was grown in 35 north-eastern Australian soils of low magnesium (Mg) status, was undertaken to study the response to applied Mg. Of the soils studied, 20 were strongly acidic (pH(1:5 soil:water) <5.4), and in these soils the response to Mg was studied in both the presence and absence of lime. Magnesium application significantly (P < 0.05) increased dry matter yield in 10 soils, all of which were strongly acidic. However, significant Mg responses were recorded in 6 soils in the presence of lime, indicating that, in many situations, liming strategies may need to include consideration of Mg nutrition. Critical soil test values for 90% relative yield were 0.21 cmol(+)/kg of exchangeable Mg or 7% Mg saturation, whilst the critical (90% yield) plant tissue Mg concentration (whole shoots) was 0.15%.

Responses of sugarcane, maize, and soybean to phosphorus and vesicular-arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi

The presence of vesicular-arbuscular mycorrhizal (VAM) fungi in long-term cane-growing fields associated with yield decline led to the supposition that VAM fungi may be responsible for the poor yields. A glasshouse trial was established to test the effectiveness of a species of VAM fungi, Glomus clarum, extracted from one of these North Queensland fields on the growth of sugarcane (Saccharum interspecific hybrid), maize (Zea mays), and soybean (Glycine max) for 6 phosphorus (P) rates (0, 2.7, 8.2, 25, 74, 222 mg/kg). For maize and soybean plants that received VAM (+ VAM), root colonisation was associated with enhanced P uptake, improved dry weight (DW) production, and higher index tissue-P concentrations than those without VAM (-VAM). By comparing DW responses of maize and soybean for different P rates, savings in fertiliser P of up to 160 and 213 kg/ha, respectively, were realised. Sugarcane plants were generally less responsive. Apart from a 30% DW increase with VAM when 2.7 mg P/kg was added, DW of +VAM plants was equivalent to, or worse than in the case of 222 mg P/kg, DW of -VAM plants. For all 3 host species, colonisation was least at the highest P application, presumably from excessive P within the plant tissue. Critical P concentrations for the 3 host species were below those reported elsewhere, and for soybean and sugarcane, the critical concentration for +VAM plants was lower than that of -VAM plants. There are 3 implications that arise from this study. First, VAM fungi present in cane-growing soils can promote the growth of maize and soybean, which are potential rotation crops, over a range of P levels. Second, the mycorrhizal strain taken from this site did not generally contribute to a yield decline in sugarcane plants. Third, application of P fertiliser is not necessary for sugarcane when acid-extractable P is

Breeding for low input conditions and consequences for participatory plant breeding: Examples from tropical maize and wheat

Participatory plant breeding (PPB) has been suggested as an effective alternative to formal plant breeding (FPB) as a breeding strategy for achieving productivity gains under low input conditions. With genetic progress through PPB and FPB being determined by the same genetic variables, the likelihood of success of PPB approaches applied in low input target conditions was analyzed using two case studies from FPB that have resulted in significant productivity gains under low input conditions: (1) breeding tropical maize for low input conditions by CIMMYT, and (2) breeding of spring wheat for the highly variable low input rainfed farming systems in Australia. In both cases, genetic improvement was an outcome of long-term investment in a sustained research effort aimed at understanding the detail of the important environmental constraints to productivity and the plant requirements for improved adaptation to the identified constraints, followed up by the design and continued evaluation of efficient breeding strategies. The breeding strategies used differed between the two case studies but were consistent in their attention to the key determinants of response to selection: (1) ensuring adequate sources of genetic variation and high selection pressures for the important traits at all stages of the breeding program, (2) use of experimental procedures to achieve high levels of heritability in the breeding trials, and (3) testing strategies that achieved a high genetic correlation between performance of germplasm in the breeding trials and under on-farm conditions. The implications of the outcomes from these FPB case studies for realizing the positive motivations for adopting PPB strategies are discussed with particular reference for low input target environment conditions.

Potential yield and water-use effficiency benefits in sorghum from limited maximum transpiration rate

Limitations on maximum transpiration rates, which are commonly observed as midday stomatal closure, have been observed even under well-watered conditions. Such limitations may be caused by restricted hydraulic conductance in the plant or by limited supply of water to the plant from uptake by the roots. This behaviour would have the consequences of limiting photosynthetic rate, increasing transpiration efficiency, and conserving soil water. A key question is whether the conservation of water will be rewarded by sustained growth during seed fill and increased grain yield. This simulation analysis was undertaken to examine consequences on sorghum yield over several years when maximum transpiration rate was imposed in a model. Yields were simulated at four locations in the sorghum-growing area of Australia for 115 seasons at each location. Mean yield was increased slightly ( 5 - 7%) by setting maximum transpiration rate at 0.4 mm h(-1). However, the yield increase was mainly in the dry, low-yielding years in which growers may be more economically vulnerable. In years with yield less than similar to 450 g m(-2), the maximum transpiration rate trait resulted in yield increases of 9 - 13%. At higher yield levels, decreased yields were simulated. The yield responses to restricted maximum transpiration rate were associated with an increase in efficiency of water use. This arose because transpiration was reduced at times of the day when atmospheric demand was greatest. Depending on the risk attitude of growers, incorporation of a maximum transpiration rate trait in sorghum cultivars could be desirable to increase yields in dry years and improve water use efficiency and crop yield stability.

DNA markers linked to yield, yield components, and morphological traits in autotetraploid lucerne (Medicago sativa L.)

We have mapped and identifed DNA markers linked to morphology, yield, and yield components of lucerne, using a backcross population derived from winter-active parents. The high-yielding and recurrent parent, D, produced individual markers that accounted for up to 18% of total yield over 6 harvests, at Gatton, south-eastern Queensland. The same marker, AC/TT8, was consistently identified at each individual harvest, and in individual harvests accounted for up to 26% of the phenotypic variation for yield. This marker was located in linkage group 2 of the D map, and several other markers positively associated with yield were consistently identified in this linkage group. Similarly, markers negatively associated with yield were consistently identified in the W116 map, W116 being the low-yielding parent. Highly significant positive correlations were observed between total yield and yield for harvests 1-6, and between total yield and stem length, tiller number, leaf yield/plant, leaf yield/5 stems, stem yield/plant, and stem yield/5 stems. Highly significant QTL were located for all these characters as well as for leaf shape and pubescence.

Impacts of feeding system and season on milk composition and Cheddar cheese yield in a subtropical environment

Milk obtained from cows on 2 subtropical dairy feeding systems were compared for their suitability for Cheddar cheese manufacture. Cheeses were made in a small-scale cheesemaking plant capable of making 2 blocks ( about 2 kg each) of Cheddar cheese concurrently. Its repeatability was tested over 10 separate cheesemaking days with no significant differences being found between the 2 vats in cheesemaking parameters or cheese characteristics. In the feeding trial, 16 pairs of Holstein - Friesian cows were used in 2 feeding systems (M1, rain-grown tropical grass pastures and oats; and M5, a feedlot, based on maize/barley silage and lucerne hay) over 2 seasons ( spring and autumn corresponding to early and late lactation, respectively). Total dry matter, crude protein (kg/cow. day) and metabolisable energy (MJ/cow.day) intakes were 17, 2.7, and 187 for M1 and 24, 4, 260 for M5, respectively. M5 cows produced higher milk yields and milk with higher protein and casein levels than the M1 cows, but the total solids and fat levels were similar (P > 0.05) for both M1 and M5 cows. The yield and yield efficiency of cheese produced from the 2 feeding systems were also not significantly different. The results suggest that intensive tropical pasture systems can produce milk suitable for Cheddar cheese manufacture when cows are supplemented with a high energy concentrate. Season and stage of lactation had a much greater effect than feeding system on milk and cheesemaking characteristics with autumn ( late lactation) milk having higher protein and fat contents and producing higher cheese yields.

Pattern analysis on grain yield performance of Chinese and CIMMYT spring wheat cultivars sown in China and CIMMYT

Understanding the relationships among testing environments is essential for better targeting cultivars to production environments. To identify patterns of cultivar, environment, cultivar-by-environment interactions, and opportunities for indirect selection for grain yield, a set of 25 spring wheat cultivars from China and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) was evaluated in nine environments in China and four management environments at CIMMYT in Cd. Obregon, Mexico, during two wheat seasons. Genetic background and original environment were the main factors influencing grain yield performance of the cultivars. Baviacora M 92, Xinchun 2 and Xinchun 6 showed relatively more stable and higher grain yields, whereas highly photoperiod sensitive cultivars Xinkehan 9, Kefeng 6 and Longmai 19 proved consistently inferior across environments, except in Harbin and Keshan, the two high latitude environments. Longmai 26, also from high latitude environments in the northeastern Heilongjiang province, was however probably not as photoperiodicly sensitive as other cultivars; from that region, and produced much higher grain yield and expressed a broader adaptation. None of the environments reported major diseases. Pattern analyses revealed that photoperiod response and planting option on beds were the two main factors underlying the observed interactions for grain yield. The production environment of planting on the flat in Mexico grouped together with Huhhot and Urumqi in both wheat seasons, indicating an indirect response to selection for grain yield in this CIMMYT managed environment could benefit the two Chinese environments. Both the environment of planting on the flat with Chinese Hejin and Yongning, and the three CIMMYT enviromnents planting on raised beds with Chinese Yongning grouped together only in one season, showing that repeatability may not be stable in this case.

Radiation use efficiency increases when the diffuse component of incident radiation is enhanced under shade

Theoretical analyses have shown the radiation use efficiency of maize, soybean, and peanut to increase with a decrease in the level of incident radiation and an increase in the proportion of diffuse radiation. This study compared the growth and radiation use efficiency of Panicum maximum cv. Petrie (green panic) and Bothriochloa insculpta cv. Bisset (creeping bluegrass) beneath shading treatments (birdguard and solarweave shadecloths) with that in full sunlight. A level of incident radiation reduced by 25% under birdguard shadecloth decreased final yield and final leaf area index, but increased canopy leaf nitrogen concentration and radiation use efficiency (19-14%) (compared with the full sun treatment). A similar level of reduced incident radiation under solarweave shadecloth (which provided an increased proportion of diffuse radiation), increased final yield and radiation use efficiency (46-50%). An understanding of the effects of composition of incident radiation on radiation use efficiency of tropical grasses enables more accurate estimation of potential pasture growth in shaded environments. It also has impact upon crop production in glasshouses and greenhouses.

Temperature and sowing date affect the linear increase of sunflower harvest index

The linearity of daily linear harvest index (HI) increase can provide a simple means to predict grain growth and yield in field crops. However, the stability of the rate of increase across genotypes and environments is uncertain. Data from three field experiments were collated to investigate the phase of linear HI increase of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L,) across environments by changing genotypes, sowing time, N level, and solar irradiation level. Linear increase in HI was similar among different genotypes, N levels, and radiation treatments (mean 0.0125 d(-1)). but significant differences occurred between sowings, The linear increase in HI was not stable at very low temperatures (down to 9 degrees C) during grain filling, due to possible limitations to biomass accumulation and translocation (mean 0.0091 d(-1)). Using the linear increase in HI to predict grain yield requires predictions of the duration from anthesis to the onset of linear HI increase (lag phase) and the cessation of linear RT increase. These studies showed that the lag phase differed, and the linear HI increase ceased when 91% of the anthesis to physiological maturity period had been completed.

Erosion/productivity modelling of maize farming in the Philippine uplands part II: Simulation of alternative farming methods

A version of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) capable of simulating the key agronomic aspects of intercropping maize between legume shrub hedgerows was described and parameterised in the first paper of this series (Nelson et al., this issue). In this paper, APSIM is used to simulate maize yields and soil erosion from traditional open-field farming and hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands. Two variants of open-field farming were simulated using APSIM, continuous and fallow, for comparison with intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows. Continuous open-field maize farming was predicted to be unsustainable in the long term, while fallow open-field farming was predicted to slow productivity decline by spreading the effect of erosion over a larger cropping area. Hedgerow intercropping was predicted to reduce erosion by maintaining soil surface cover during periods of intense rainfall, contributing to sustainable production of maize in the long term. In the third paper in this series, Nelson et al. (this issue) use cost-benefit analysis to compare the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to traditional open-field farming of maize in relatively inaccessible upland areas. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Erosion/productivity modelling of maize farming in the Philippine uplands part III: Economic analysis of alternative farming methods

Two previous papers in this series (Nelson et al., this issue) described the use of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) to simulate the effect of erosion on maize yields from open-field farming and hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands. In this paper, maize yields simulated with APSIM are used to compare the economic viability of intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows with that of continuous and fallow open-field farming of maize. The analysis focuses on the economic incentives of upland farmers to adopt hedgerow intercropping, discussing farmers' planning horizons, access to credit and security of land tenure, as well as maize pricing in the Philippines. Insecure land tenure has limited the planning horizons of upland farmers, and high establishment costs reduce the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to continuous and fallow open-field farming in the short term, In the long term, high discount rates and share-tenancy arrangements in which landlords do not contribute to establishment costs reduce the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to fallow open-field farming, (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.