Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries

The purpose of this work was to model lung cancer mortality as a function of past exposure to tobacco and to forecast age-sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates. A 3-factor age-period-cohort (APC) model, in which the period variable is replaced by the product of average tar content and adult tobacco consumption per capita, was estimated for the US, UK, Canada and Australia by the maximum likelihood method. Age- and sex-specific tobacco consumption was estimated from historical data on smoking prevalence and total tobacco consumption. Lung cancer mortality was derived from vital registration records. Future tobacco consumption, tar content and the cohort parameter were projected by autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) estimation. The optimal exposure variable was found to be the product of average tar content and adult cigarette consumption per capita, lagged for 2530 years for both males and females in all 4 countries. The coefficient of the product of average tar content and tobacco consumption per capita differs by age and sex. In all models, there was a statistically significant difference in the coefficient of the period variable by sex. In all countries, male age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates peaked in the 1980s and declined thereafter. Female mortality rates are projected to peak in the first decade of this century. The multiplicative models of age, tobacco exposure and cohort fit the observed data between 1950 and 1999 reasonably well, and time-series models yield plausible past trends of relevant variables. Despite a significant reduction in tobacco consumption and average tar content of cigarettes sold over the past few decades, the effect on lung cancer mortality is affected by the time lag between exposure and established disease. As a result, the burden of lung cancer among females is only just reaching, or soon will reach, its peak but has been declining for I to 2 decades in men. Future sex differences in lung cancer mortality are likely to be greater in North America than Australia and the UK due to differences in exposure patterns between the sexes. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Lung cancer rates in men and women with comparable histories of smoking

Background: Recent case-control studies suggest that, given equal smoking exposure, women may have a higher relative risk of developing lung cancer than men. Despite prospective data that conflict with this hypothesis, mechanistic studies to find a biologic basis for a sex difference continue. Methods: We addressed the hypothesis directly by analyzing prospective data from former and current smokers in two large cohorts-the Nurses' Health Study of women and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study of men. We calculated incidence rates and hazard ratios of lung cancer in women compared with men, adjusting for age, number of cigarettes smoked per day, age at start of smoking, and time since quitting, using Cox proportional hazards models. We also reviewed published results from prospective analyses. Results: From 1986 through 2000, 955 and 311 primary lung cancers were identified among 60 296 women and 25 397 men, respectively, who ranged in age from 40 to 79 years. Incidence rates per 100 000 person-years for women and men were 253 and 232, respectively, among current smokers and 81 and 73, respectively, among former smokers. The hazard ratio in women ever smokers compared with men was 1.11 (95% confidence interval = 0.95 to 1.31). Six published prospective cohort studies allowed assessment of comparative susceptibility to lung cancer by sex. None supported an excess risk of lung cancer for women. Conclusions: Women do not appear to have a greater susceptibility to lung cancer than men, given equal smoking exposure. Research should be focused on enhancing preventive interventions for all.

Regional, disease specific patterns of smoking-attributable mortality in 2000

Background: Smoking has been causally associated with increased mortality from several diseases, and has increased considerably in many developing countries in the past few decades. Mortality attributable to smoking in the year 2000 was estimated for adult males and females, including estimates by age and for specific diseases in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. Methods: Lung cancer mortality was used as an indirect marker of the accumulated hazard of smoking. Never-smoker lung cancer mortality was estimated based on the household use of coal with poor ventilation. Estimates of mortality caused by smoking were made for lung cancer, upper aerodigestive cancer, all other cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease ( COPD), other respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and selected other medical causes. Estimates were limited to ages 30 years and above. Results: In 2000, an estimated 4.83 million premature deaths in the world were attributable to smoking, 2.41 million in developing countries and 2.43 million in industrialised countries. There were 3.84 million male deaths and 1.00 million female deaths attributable to smoking. 2.69 million smoking attributable deaths were between the ages of 30 - 69 years, and 2.14 million were 70 years of age and above. The leading causes of death from smoking in industrialised regions were cardiovascular diseases ( 1.02 million deaths), lung cancer (0.52 million deaths), and COPD (0.31 million deaths), and in the developing world cardiovascular diseases (0.67 million deaths), COPD (0.65 million deaths), and lung cancer (0.33 million deaths). The share of male and female deaths and younger and older adult deaths, and of various diseases in total smoking attributable deaths exhibited large inter-regional heterogeneity, especially in the developing world. Conclusions: Smoking was an important cause of global mortality in 2000, affecting a large number of diseases. Age, sex, and disease patterns of smoking-caused mortality varied greatly across regions, due to both historical and current smoking patterns, and the presence of other risk factors that affect background mortality from specific diseases.

Role of smoking in global and regional cancer epidemiology: current patterns and data needs

Although smoking is widely recognized as a major cause of cancer, there is little information on how it contributes to the global and regional burden of cancers in combination with other risk factors that affect background cancer mortality patterns. We used data from the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS-II) and the WHO and IARC cancer mortality databases to estimate deaths from 8 clusters of site-specific cancers caused by smoking, for 14 epidemiologic subregions of the world, by age and sex. We used lung cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking hazard. CPS-II hazards were adjusted for important covariates. In the year 2000, an estimated 1.42 (95% CI 1.27-1.57) million cancer deaths in the world, 21% of total global cancer deaths, were caused by smoking. Of these, 1.18 million deaths were among men and 0.24 million among women; 625,000 (95% CI 485,000-749,000) smoking-caused cancer deaths occurred in the developing world and 794,000 (95% CI 749,000-840,000) in industrialized regions. Lung cancer accounted for 60% of smoking-attributable cancer mortality, followed by cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (20%). Based on available data, more than one in every 5 cancer deaths in the world in the year 2000 were caused by smoking, making it possibly the single largest preventable cause of cancer mortality. There was significant variability across regions in the role of smoking as a cause of the different site-specific cancers. This variability illustrates the importance of coupling research and surveillance of smoking with that for other risk factors for more effective cancer prevention. (C) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Risk of non-small cell lung cancer and the cytochrome P4501A1 Ile462Val polymorphism

Objective: The Ile462Val substitution in the cytochrome P450 1A1 gene (CYP1A1) results in increased enzymatic activity. Preliminary data suggesting a link between this polymorphism and lung cancer risk in Caucasians are inconsistent, reflecting small sample sizes and the relatively low frequency of the variant. Methods: The data set consisted of 1050 primary non-small cell lung cancer cases and 581 controls, a large homogenous population designed specifically to address previous inconsistencies. Patients were genotyped using a PCR-RFLP technique. Results: Carriers of the valine allele, CYP1A1*2C, (Ile/Val or Val/Val genotypes) were significantly over-represented in non-small cell lung cancer compared to controls (OR=1.9; 95% CI=1.2-2.9; p=0.005) when adjusted for confounders, particularly in women (OR=4.6; 95% CI=1.7-12.4; p=0.003). The valine variant was statistically significantly over-represented in cases of lung cancer younger than the median age (64 years) (OR=2.5; 95% CI=1.3-4.8; p=0.005) and cases with less than the median cumulative tobacco-smoke exposure (46 pack-years) (OR=2.4; 95% CI=1.3-4.7; p=0.007). Conclusions: These new data establish an association between the CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism and the risk of developing non-small cell lung cancer, especially among women.

Role of smoking in global and regional cardiovascular mortality

Background - Smoking is a major cause of cardiovascular disease mortality. There is little information on how it contributes to global and regional cause-specific mortality from cardiovascular diseases for which background risk varies because of other risks. Method and Results - We used data from the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS II) and the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease mortality database to estimate smoking-attributable deaths from ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and a cluster of other cardiovascular diseases for 14 epidemiological subregions of the world by age and sex. We used lung cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking hazard. CPS-II hazards were adjusted for important covariates. In the year 2000, an estimated 1.62 (95% CI, 1.27 to 2.04) million cardiovascular deaths in the world, 11% of total global cardiovascular deaths, were due to smoking. Of these, 1.17 million deaths were among men and 450 000 among women. There were 670 000 (95% CI, 440 000 to 920 000) smoking-attributable cardiovascular deaths in the developing world and 960 000 (95% CI, 770 000 to 1 200 000) in industrialized regions. Ischemic heart disease accounted for 54% of smoking-attributable cardiovascular mortality, followed by cerebrovascular disease (25%). There was variability across regions in the role of smoking as a cause of various cardiovascular diseases. Conclusions - More than 1 in every 10 cardiovascular deaths in the world in the year 2000 were attributable to smoking, demonstrating that it is an important preventable cause of cardiovascular mortality.

Epigenetics of lung cancer

Epigenetics is the study of heritable changes in gene expression that occur without changes in DNA sequence. It has a role in determining when and where a gene is expressed during development. Perhaps the most well known epigenetic mechanism is DNA methylation whereby cytosines at position 5 in CpG dinucleotides are methylated. Histone modification is another form of epigenetic control, which is quite complex and diverse. Histones and DNA make up the nucleosome which is the structural unit of chromatin which are involved in packaging DNA. Apart from the crucial role epigenetics plays in embryonic development, transcription, chromatin structure, X chromosome inactivation and genomic imprinting, its role in an increasing number of human diseases is more and more recognized. These diseases include cancer, and lung cancer in particular has been increasingly studied for the potential biological role of epigenetic changes with the promise of better and novel diagnostic and therapeutic tools.

Social inequalities in male mortality, and in male mortality from smoking: indirect estimation from national death rates in England and Wales, Poland, and North America

Background There are substantial social inequalities in adult male mortality in many countries. Smoking is often more prevalent among men of lower social class, education, or income. The contribution of smoking to these social inequalities in mortality remains uncertain. Methods The contribution of smoking to adult mortality in a population can be estimated indirectly from disease-specific death rates in that population (using absolute lung cancer rates to indicate proportions due to smoking of mortality from certain other diseases). We applied these methods to 1996 death rates at ages 35-69 years in men in three different social strata in four countries, based on a total of 0.6 million deaths. The highest and lowest social strata were based on social class (professional vs unskilled manual) in England and Wales, neighbourhood income (top vs bottom quintile) in urban Canada, and completed years of education (more than vs less than 12 years) in the USA and Poland. Results In each country, there was about a two-fold difference between the highest and the lowest social strata in overall risks of dying among men aged 35-69 years (England and Wales 21% vs 43%, USA 20% vs 37%, Canada 21% vs 34%, Poland 26% vs 50%: four-country mean 22% vs 41%, four-country mean absolute difference 19%). More than half of this difference in mortality between the top and bottom social strata involved differences in risks of being killed at age 35-69 years by smoking (England and Wales 4% vs 19%, USA 4% vs 15%, Canada 6% vs 13%, Poland 5% vs 22%: four-country mean 5% vs 17%, four-country mean absolute difference 12%). Smoking-attributed mortality accounted for nearly half of total male mortality in the lowest social stratum of each country. Conclusion In these populations, most, but not all, of the substantial social inequalities in adult male mortality during the 1990s were due to the effects of smoking. Widespread cessation of smoking could eventually halve the absolute differences between these social strata in the risk of premature death.

Stage is not a reliable indicator of tumor volume in non-small cell lung cancer: a preliminary analysis of the trans-tasman radiation oncology group 99-05 database

Background: Tumor volume has been shown to be a prognostic factor for the response of some tumors to radiotherapy. TNM stage has prognostic value for patients treated surgically for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), but its value is less clear for patients treated by nonsurgical means. This may be because tumor size is not a consistent determinant of T stage or stage group. As part of the preliminary analyses for the Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group 99-05 study, the authors performed this analysis to determine to what extent stage reflects tumor volume. Methods: In this prospective multicenter observational study, patients had to have histologically proven NSCLC, no evidence of disease beyond the primary site or thoracic lymph nodes, and been planned for radical radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy. Tumor volume measurements were based on computed tomography-based treatment planning images. Results: Four hundred four patients were available for analysis. There was a strong correlation between (log) maximum tumor diameter and (log) tumor volume (r = 0.93, p < 0.001). Although there was a highly significant trend of increasing volume with increasing T stage and stage group, when tumors were categorized into four groups according to increasing volume, there was only 55% concordance with T stage and 67% concordance with stage group. Conclusions: There is limited correlation between tumor size and disease stage in patients with NSCLC. This justifies documentation and investigation of size as a potential prognostic factor independent of stage. Maximum tumor diameter may be an adequate substitute for volume as a measurement of size.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: current burden and future projections

Information about the comparative magnitude of the burden from various diseases and injuries is a critical input into building the evidence base for health policies and programmes. Such information should be based on a critical evaluation of all available epidemiological data using standard and comparable procedures across diseases and injuries, including information on the age at death and the incidence, duration and severity of cases who do not die prematurely from the disease. A summary measure, disability-adjusted life yrs (DALYs), has been developed to simultaneously measure the amount of disease burden due to premature mortality and the amount due to the nonfatal consequences of disease.